Winnipeg, (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market settled with small losses on Thursday, after trading to both sides of unchanged in choppy activity.
With little fresh news in the market, participants were content to keep prices steady until they get a better handle on the size of this year’s crop, according to a trader.
Statistics Canada estimated canola production this year at 18.5 million tonnes in a report out Aug. 28. While that would be about two million tonnes down from the previous year, most market participants expect actual production will still end up at least above 19 million tonnes due to improved conditions over the past month.
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As the harvest in southern Alberta presses on, a broker said that is one of the factors pulling feed prices lower in the region. Darcy Haley, vice-president of Ag Value Brokers in Lethbridge, added that lower cattle numbers in feedlots, plentiful amounts of grass for cattle to graze and a lacklustre export market also weighed on feed prices.
Gains in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans provided some underlying support for canola. Meanwhile, steady deliveries into the commercial pipeline tempered the upside as the Canadian harvest gets underway.
About 7,341 canola contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 14,021 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 2,874 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade found strength on the back of renewed optimism on the Chinese trade front on Thursday, posting small gains.
Concerns over cool and wet Midwestern weather forecasts were also supportive, with the slow development of this year’s crop raising the possibility of frost damage before the harvest.
However, poor weekly export sales reported by the United States Department of Agriculture tempered the upside.
The International Grains Council released updated world supply/demand estimates lowering their soybean carryout forecast by three million tonnes, to 41 million tonnes.
CORN was narrowly mixed at the close with a bias to the upside in the most active months. While weekly USDA export sales data showed a small net reduction in old crop business there is only a week left in the 2018/19 marketing year, and large new crop sales of about 860,000 tonnes were supportive.
The International Grains Council raised its world corn ending stocks estimate by 11 million tonnes, to 284 million.
WHEAT futures were mostly lower on Wednesday, with a move to fresh contract lows in the French wheat market behind some of the spillover selling pressure.
Weekly US wheat export sales of about 662,000 tonnes were at the higher end of trade estimates and the largest for the marketing year to date. South Korea and Mexico were both major buyers.
The International Grains Council raised its estimate for world wheat ending stocks to 271 million tonnes, up by a million tonnes from an earlier forecast.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up 93 cents at US$56.71 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.21 cents, up from 75.18 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3296.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.
Canola Nov 19 447.50s -0.40 -0.09%
Canola Jan 20 455.30s -0.50 -0.11%
Canola Mar 20 462.40s -0.70 -0.15%
Canola May 20 468.90s -0.80 -0.17%
Canola Jul 20 475.40s -0.90 -0.19%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Chicago
Soybean Sep 19 856-2s +3-4 +0.41%
Soybean Nov 19 868-4s +2-6 +0.32%
Soybean Jan 20 881-4s +2-4 +0.28%
Soybean Mar 20 894-0s +2-0 +0.22%
Soybean May 20 904-6s +2-0 +0.22%
Soybean Meal Sep 19 292.0s -2.0 -0.68%
Soybean Meal Oct 19 294.3s -1.8 -0.61%
Soybean Meal Dec 19 298.0s -1.7 -0.57%
Soybean Oil Sep 19 28.37s +0.26 +0.92%
Soybean Oil Oct 19 28.37s +0.13 +0.46%
Soybean Oil Dec 19 28.58s +0.13 +0.46%
Corn Sep 19 359-6s -3-0 -0.83%
Corn Dec 19 371-2s +0-2 +0.07%
Corn Mar 20 383-2s +1-4 +0.39%
Corn May 20 390-6s +1-4 +0.39%
Corn Jul 20 397-2s +1-2 +0.32%
Oats Sep 19 280-2s +26-2 +10.33%
Oats Dec 19 270-2s +5-4 +2.08%
Oats Mar 20 274-4s +5-4 +2.04%
Oats May 20 273-6s +5-0 +1.86%
Oats Jul 20 275-4s +5-4 +2.04%
Wheat Sep 19 469-6s -2-4 -0.53%
Wheat Dec 19 472-6s -2-4 -0.53%
Wheat Mar 20 478-2s -2-4 -0.52%
Wheat May 20 481-0s -2-4 -0.52%
Wheat Jul 20 483-4s -2-6 -0.57%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 19 479-4s -8-0 -1.64%
Spring Wheat Dec 19 501-4s -4-0 -0.79%
Spring Wheat Mar 20 516-2s -3-6 -0.72%
Spring Wheat May 20 526-2s -3-2 -0.61%
Spring Wheat Jul 20 536-0s -3-0 -0.56%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 387-2s -5-0 -1.27%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 401-4s -2-6 -0.68%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 20 416-4s -2-2 -0.54%
Hard Red Wheat May 20 426-4s -2-4 -0.58%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 20 436-0s -2-0 -0.46%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Aug 19 105.650s +0.575 +0.55%
Live Cattle Oct 19 99.800s +0.600 +0.60%
Live Cattle Dec 19 104.250s +0.175 +0.17%
Feeder Cattle Aug 19 138.750s unch unch
Feeder Cattle Sep 19 133.400s +0.550 +0.41%
Feeder Cattle Oct 19 131.975s +0.350 +0.27%
Lean Hogs Oct 19 64.900s +1.400 +2.20%
Lean Hogs Dec 19 65.650s +1.950 +3.06%
Lean Hogs Feb 20 73.050s +1.825 +2.56%
