WINNIPEG(CNS) – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts are showing signs of wanting to climb higher due to recent moves in soybean oil and the Canadian dollar.
The front-month March contract is still below the benchmark C$500 per tonne mark but is starting to creep toward it.
Some of the movement can likely be traced to recent weakness in the U.S. dollar, something one industry-watcher says was bound to happen.
“Trump did say he wanted a weaker U.S. dollar,” noted Wayne Palmer of Agri-Trend in Winnipeg. He added the attraction for the U.S. President was that it made U.S. made goods more attractive to foreign buyers.
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Farmer selling on the Prairies is slow these days while steady global demand for oilseeds underpins the futures. Basis levels are also seeing some improvement in Western Canada.
The U.S. soyoil market seems to have carved out a bottom for itself after testing seven month lows. That leads some analysts to think things may have to turn higher.
Resistance is being felt though by the belief that canola is extremely expensive right now compared to other oilseeds.
“Canola is certainly cheaper now than it was a few months ago,” said Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg. “But from a buyer’s point of view canola is more expensive now than it was then because their margins are sharply lower. That takes away buying power.”
The massive amount of soybean stocks in South America coupled with what looks to be another big harvest is another barrier facing prices.
”Argentina is going to have to lose 10 million tonnes of soybeans minimum, because (South American) carryover stocks are just off the charts,” said Ball.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 10 cents at US$65.51 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US80.77 cents, up from 81.09 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2332.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.
Canola Mar 18 496.00s +1.00 +0.20%
Canola May 18 502.90s +1.20 +0.24%
Canola Jul 18 508.40s +0.80 +0.16%
Canola Nov 18 504.20s unch unch
Canola Jan 19 509.80s +1.00 +0.20%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 18 992-2s unch unch
Soybeans May 18 1003-6s unch unch
Soybeans Jul 18 1013-2s -0-2 -0.02%
Soybeans Aug 18 1015-2s -0-2 -0.02%
Soybeans Sep 18 1010-0s -0-6 -0.07%
Soybean Meal Mar 18 340.4s -1.6 -0.47%
Soybean Meal May 18 343.5s -1.3 -0.38%
Soybean Meal Jul 18 345.5s -0.9 -0.26%
Soybean Oil Mar 18 32.50s -0.18 -0.55%
Soybean Oil May 18 32.69s -0.18 -0.55%
Soybean Oil Jul 18 32.89s -0.17 -0.51%
Corn Mar 18 355-2s -1-2 -0.35%
Corn May 18 363-6s -1-0 -0.27%
Corn Jul 18 371-6s -1-2 -0.34%
Corn Sep 18 379-2s -1-2 -0.33%
Corn Dec 18 388-4s -1-0 -0.26%
Oats Mar 18 261-0s -14-4 -5.26%
Oats May 18 255-2s -10-6 -4.04%
Oats Jul 18 258-0s -8-6 -3.28%
Oats Sep 18 259-6s -6-4 -2.44%
Oats Dec 18 258-0s -4-4 -1.71%
Wheat Mar 18 434-4s +1-4 +0.35%
Wheat May 18 447-2s +1-6 +0.39%
Wheat Jul 18 459-6s +1-4 +0.33%
Wheat Sep 18 474-0s +1-0 +0.21%
Wheat Dec 18 493-0s +1-2 +0.25%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 18 610-2s +2-2 +0.37%
Spring Wheat May 18 620-4s +1-6 +0.28%
Spring Wheat Jul 18 627-4s +1-0 +0.16%
Spring Wheat Sep 18 625-2s unch unch
Spring Wheat Dec 18 635-6s +0-6 +0.12%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Mar 18 435-0s +2-0 +0.46%
Hard Red Wheat May 18 449-4s +2-2 +0.50%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 466-4s +2-2 +0.48%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 18 483-4s +2-4 +0.52%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 504-0s +2-4 +0.50%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Feb 18 122.475s -2.950 -2.35%
Live Cattle Apr 18 122.600s -2.550 -2.04%
Live Cattle Jun 18 114.225s -2.250 -1.93%
Feeder Cattle Jan 18 147.850s -0.300 -0.20%
Feeder Cattle Mar 18 143.925s -2.475 -1.69%
Feeder Cattle Apr 18 144.725s -2.475 -1.68%
Lean Hogs Feb 18 72.475s -0.450 -0.62%
Lean Hogs Apr 18 73.825s -1.875 -2.48%
Lean Hogs May 18 78.900s -1.250 -1.56%
