Canola, corn and wheat edge higher on seeded acreage question

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Published: May 16, 2011

Canola futures rose Monday, shaking off the downward pressure of improved seeding weather and weaker soybeans.

A dry week is forecast for Manitoba but there is still much land in the eastern Prairies too wet to seed. Light showers are expected Tuesday in a large part of Saskatchewan.

The Canadian Wheat Board estimated Monday that 20 percent of the crop is in the ground, up from four percent last week.

Corn futures rose on worries about the slow pace of seeding in the U.S. Midwest.

As of Sunday, 63 percent of the U.S. corn crop was in the ground, compared to the five-year average of 75 percent.

About 21 percent of the corn had emerged, compared to 39 percent on average.

The U.S. spring wheat crop was 36 percent seeded, compared to the five-year average of 76 percent.

Very high protein wheat is currently fetching strong premiums over the Minneapolis futures price.

Wheat futures rose on dry weather in Western Europe where weekend rain failed to materialize.

The good-to-excellent percentage of the U.S. hard red spring wheat crop fell again this week to 32 percent from 33 percent a week ago.

The Australian Oilseeds Federation’s first estimate of the coming year’s canola crop forecasts a record 2.44 million tonne crop, up 15 percent from last year. The eastern half of the country continues to enjoy good soil moisture, but western areas are dry.

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola Jul 11        $556.60, up $1.80

Canola Nov 11        $562.90, up $7.20

Canola Jan 12        $570.10, up $6.90

Canola Mar 12        $575.80, up $8.80

The previous day’s best basis was $18 under the July contract according to ICE Futures Canada in Winnipeg.

The May contract’s 14-day Relative Strength Index was 40. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market

Western Barley Jul 11        $205.00, unchanged

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans Jul 11        $13.265, down 3.0 cents

Soybeans Aug 11        $13.225, down 4.0

Soybeans Nov 11        $13.0625, down 4.5

Corn Jul 11        $6.97-4, up 15.5

Corn Dec 11        $6.35-4, up 8.5

Oats Jul 11        $3.48-0, up 3.5

Oats Dec 11        $3.63-0, up 3.5

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wheat Jul 11        $9.1025, up 10.0 cents

Spring Wheat Sep 11        $9.135, up 10.0

Spring Wheat Dec 11        $9.2625, up 10.0

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell $2.28 to $97.37 US per barrel. Crude dropped on weakening gasoline demand in the United States and on the reduced threat to Gulf of Mexico refineries since the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers opened floodways on the Mississippi.

The Canadian dollar at noon was $1.0306 US, down from $1.0354 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was 97.03 cents Cdn.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite index closed up 14.19 points, or 0.11 percent, to 13,391.35.

The Standard and Poor’s 500 index fell 8.30 points, or 0.62 percent, to 1,329.47.

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