Winnipeg (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts have seen some large price swings over the past two weeks, but the bids in the countryside remain relatively favourable overall, according to an analyst.
The May contract hit a nearby high of C$530.50 per tonne on March 5 before dropping to a session low of C$511.50 by March 12. The contract settled at C$518.40 per tonne on March 14. The new November futures also bounced around within a wide range recently, settling at C$513.60 per tonne on March 14.
Cash bids that work out to around C$11 per bushel for new crop and a bit above that for old crop “are not too bad,” according to commodities investment advisor David Derwin, of PI Financial in Winnipeg. He said the current cash opportunities represent a good floor price and recommended producers do at least some hedging.
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“You don’t want to get too aggressive, but pricing some new crop or letting go of some old crop is not a bad idea,” said Derwin.
From a chart standpoint, canola futures are at relatively high levels with upside targets around C$525 to C$530 per tonne in the old crop May and July contracts, said Derwin.
While any number of factors could sway where values go from here, Derwin recommended that producers keep an eye on profitability and how the prices translate back to the farm.
“The world will change two or three times before the crop is off the field,” said Derwin noting that prices can be expected to see some fluctuations over the next few months.
Activity in the Canadian dollar should also be followed, with recent weakness in the currency supportive for prices in Western Canada.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 30 cents at US$60.96 per barrel, up .15 from Tuesday.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US77.18 cents, unchanged cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.30
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.
Canola Mar 18 513.00s -2.50 -0.48%
Canola May 18 518.40s -2.50 -0.48%
Canola Jul 18 524.10s -2.30 -0.44%
Canola Nov 18 513.60s -2.50 -0.48%
Canola Jan 19 517.50s -1.80 -0.35%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Chicago
Soybeans Mar 18 1028-4s -12-0 -1.15%
Soybeans May 18 1032-2s -16-4 -1.57%
Soybeans Jul 18 1043-0s -16-4 -1.56%
Soybeans Aug 18 1044-6s -16-0 -1.51%
Soybeans Sep 18 1034-0s -15-6 -1.50%
Soybean Meal Mar 18 368.3s -4.0 -1.07%
Soybean Meal May 18 370.9s -4.6 -1.23%
Soybean Meal Jul 18 372.5s -5.0 -1.32%
Soybean Oil Mar 18 31.78s -0.24 -0.75%
Soybean Oil May 18 31.71s -0.51 -1.58%
Soybean Oil Jul 18 31.95s -0.50 -1.54%
Corn Mar 18 383-4s -2-0 -0.52%
Corn May 18 388-6s -3-0 -0.77%
Corn Jul 18 396-6s -3-0 -0.75%
Corn Sep 18 402-2s -2-2 -0.56%
Corn Dec 18 407-6s -2-0 -0.49%
Oats Mar 18 253-2s -4-6 -1.84%
Oats May 18 255-6s -7-4 -2.85%
Oats Jul 18 259-2s -6-6 -2.54%
Oats Sep 18 258-6s -6-4 -2.45%
Oats Dec 18 259-6s -6-4 -2.44%
Wheat Mar 18 495-6s +10-2 +2.11%
Wheat May 18 488-6s +2-2 +0.46%
Wheat Jul 18 506-2s +1-6 +0.35%
Wheat Sep 18 522-6s +1-6 +0.34%
Wheat Dec 18 543-4s +2-4 +0.46%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Mar 18 623-2s -6-2 -0.99%
Spring Wheat May 18 621-6s -3-6 -0.60%
Spring Wheat Jul 18 628-2s -3-4 -0.55%
Spring Wheat Sep 18 634-2s -3-6 -0.59%
Spring Wheat Dec 18 642-2s -4-6 -0.73%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Mar 18 511-6s +4-6 +0.94%
Hard Red Wheat May 18 524-6s +4-4 +0.86%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 541-6s +4-4 +0.84%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 18 559-2s +5-2 +0.95%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 578-6s +5-2 +0.92%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Apr 18 123.000s +1.100 +0.90%
Live Cattle Jun 18 113.250s +0.100 +0.09%
Live Cattle Aug 18 110.775s unch unch
Feeder Cattle Mar 18 142.050s +0.500 +0.35%
Feeder Cattle Apr 18 142.725s +0.425 +0.30%
Feeder Cattle May 18 143.625s +0.500 +0.35%
Lean Hogs Apr 18 66.875s -0.850 -1.26%
Lean Hogs May 18 72.050s +0.200 +0.28%
Lean Hogs Jun 18 78.350s +0.875 +1.13%
