Winnipeg(CNS Canada) – Canadian farmers will seed more wheat and canola in 2018 at the expense of pulse crops, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s latest supply/demand estimates that include their first projections for the upcoming 2018/19 (Aug/Jul) crop year.
Total canola acres in 2018 are forecast at 24.0 million by the government agency, which would be up from the 23.0 million acres seeded the previous year. All-wheat acres (including durum) are forecast at 23.5 million, which compares with the 22.6 million seeded in 2017. Oats and barley are also forecast to see an increase in planted area.
Read Also
Feed Grains Weekly: Price likely to keep stepping back
As the harvest in southern Alberta presses on, a broker said that is one of the factors pulling feed prices lower in the region. Darcy Haley, vice-president of Ag Value Brokers in Lethbridge, added that lower cattle numbers in feedlots, plentiful amounts of grass for cattle to graze and a lacklustre export market also weighed on feed prices.
Those increases in canola and grains will come at the expense of pulses, with both peas and lentils forecast to see a sizeable reduction in acres. Pea area is forecast at 3.2 million acres by Ag Canada, which would be down from the 4.1 million acres seeded the previous year. Projected lentil seedings of 3.2 million acres, would be down by 1.2 million from 2017.
Canola ending stocks are forecast to rise to 2.25 million for the 2018/19 crop year, which would compare with the 2.0 million forecast for 2017/18 and the 1.35 million carried forward from the 2016/17 crop year. Wheat stocks are forecast to tighten, despite the increased acres, with a carryout of 5.9 million tonnes forecast for July 2019. That compares with the 6.84 million carryout in 2017 and the 6.2 million forecast for 2018.
January estimates for Canadian 2018/19 (Aug/Jul), 2017/18, and 2016/17 major crops supply and demand. In million metric tonnes.
Source: Agriculture and Agri Food Canada.
Grains and Oilseeds
—-Production—- —-Exports—-
2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17
Jan 25 Jan 25
All Wht 30.000 29.984 31.729 21.900 21.900 20.157
Durum 5.700 4.962 7.762 4.700 4.700 4.534
Barley 8.300 7.891 8.784 2.350 2.450 2.322
Corn 14.500 14.095 13.193 1.600 1.500 1.301
Oats 3.700 3.724 3.195 2.325 2.375 2.302
Canola 21.700 21.313 19.601 12.000 11.500 11.016
Flaxseed 0.600 0.548 0.588 0.600 0.500 0.500
Soybeans 8.100 7.717 6.552 6.000 5.600 4.455
TOTAL 87.335 85.746 84.220 46.928 45.968 42.199
—-Domestic Usage—- —-Ending Stocks—-
2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17
Jan 25 Jan 25
All Wht 8.510 8.829 10.024 5.900 6.200 6.835
Durum 0.810 0.772 2.476 1.400 1.200 1.863
Barley 6.350 6.163 5.846 1.250 1.550 2.122
Corn 13.400 13.182 12.863 2.600 2.600 2.187
Oats 1.145 1.149 1.163 1.150 0.900 0.680
Canola 9.550 9.261 9.422 2.250 2.000 1.348
Flaxseed 0.040 0.068 0.191 0.150 0.180 0.190
Soybeans 2.400 2.351 2.600 0.325 0.375 0.360
TOTAL 41.707 41.317 42.432 13.775 13.985 13.883
Pulse and Special Crops
——-Production——- ——-Exports——-
2018/18 2017/18 2016/17 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17
Jan 25 Jan 25 Nov 17
Dry peas 3.200 4.112 4.836 2.600 2.400 3.944
Lentils 2.000 2.559 3.248 1.800 1.600 2.455
Dry beans 0.275 0.333 0.234 0.330 0.340 0.337
Chick peas 0.145 0.092 0.082 0.125 0.140 0.108
Mustard 0.145 0.122 0.236 0.125 0.120 0.124
Canaryseed 0.130 0.137 0.140 0.125 0.135 0.153
Sunflower 0.045 0.058 0.051 0.020 0.016 0.018
TOTAL 5.940 7.402 8.827 5.125 4.751 7.138
—–Domestic Usage—— —–Ending Stocks—–
2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17
Jan 25 Jan 25
Dry peas 0.815 0.821 0.798 1.000 1.200 0.300
Lentils 0.350 0.364 0.560 0.950 1.050 0.405
Dry beans 0.025 0.030 0.000 0.065 0.065 0.003
Chick peas 0.020 0.007 0.016 0.050 0.005 0.005
Mustard 0.042 0.047 0.047 0.025 0.045 0.080
Canaryseed 0.005 0.002 0.002 0.005 0.005 0.005
Sunflower 0.045 0.047 0.047 0.065 0.055 0.040
TOTAL 1.302 1.317 1.469 2.160 2.425 0.838
