WINNIPEG — Statistics Canada releases its crop stocks estimate, as of December 31, 2014, tomorrow, and canola supplies are generally expected to fall compared to year ago levels.
The lower stocks estimates are mainly linked to smaller production in 2014-15, compared to the record large crop grown in 2013-14, analysts say.
“Stocks were pretty high last year, so they will be a little lower,” Ken Ball of PI Financial said.
“Canola consumption is still solid, the crushers have really ramped things up. The exports have tapered off a bit, but they’re still pretty good.”
Read Also
Second Harvest redirecting surplus food to those in need
Second Harvest, billed as Canada’s largest food rescuer, was on hand at Ag in Motion in Langham, Saskatchewan, from July 15 to 17 to connect with farmers and raise awareness of their presence on the Prairies.
Usage through the first five months the crop year will help provide some insight into where carryout stocks will end up. Ball added that ending stocks figures for the 2014-15 canola crop have a pretty wide range between 1.3 and two million tonnes because how much will be exported is still unclear.
It is possible that the stocks report shows a surprising number, causing a move in the ICE Futures Canada market. However, it’s unlikely because demand is still king for moving prices since the size of the crop is already known, Errol Anderson of ProMarket Communications in Calgary said.
Traders will be watching the numbers closely for a couple other crops, such as barley, Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada said.
The export pace for barley is outpacing last year so far, according to Canadian Grain Commission data. Barley exports totalled 738,000 tonnes as of Jan. 25, 2015, up from 500,200 tonnes the previous year.
It will also be interesting to watch the stocks figures for pulses to see how fast we are chewing through supplies, Jubinville said. Red lentils will be watched closely because they’ve been moving quite quickly, he added.
The following table shows pre-report estimates for the Feb. 4 Statistics Canada stocks report, which shows Canadian crop stocks as of Dec. 31, 2014. Figures are in million tonnes.
Pre-Report Total Stocks Total Stocks
. Estimates Dec 31/13 Dec 31/12
All wheat 24.728 – 28.358 28.680 20.710
Durum 4.126 – 4.200 5.239 3.931
Canola 9.633 – 11.242 12.421 8.075
Barley 4.106 – 4.785 6.750 5.265
Flaxseed 0.553 – 0.600 0.490 0.412
Oats 1.925 – 2.534 2.848 2.056
