Canada to seed more canola, less grain in 2017: Ag Canada

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Published: January 31, 2017

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Winnipeg, Jan. 30 (CNS Canada) – Canadian farmers are expected to seed more canola but less wheat and barley in 2017 compared to the previous year, according to the first supply-demand estimates from Agriculture Canada for 2017-18 (Aug-Jul).

Total area seeded to all crops is expected to rise slightly, due to a decrease in summerfallow, according to Agriculture Canada’s Market Analysis Group. However, a return to average yields would see production of all crops decline slightly.

Total wheat production in 2017-18 is forecast at 29.1 million tonnes, down from 31.7 million tonnes the previous year.

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Of the total, durum is expected to drop the most, with the projected 5.8 million tonnes well below the 7.7 million grown in 2016-17.

The early estimate for Canadian barley production in 2017-18, at eight million tonnes, down from 8.8 million the previous year.

Canola seedings are forecast to increase to 8.5 million hectares, from 8.2 million in 2016-17.

Canola production is forecast at 18.5 million tonnes, up slightly from the 18.4 million grown the previous year.

For the pulse and special crops, Ag Canada expects slight decreases in both pea and lentil seedings, although a return to average yields would still see lentil production rise on the year.

Total ending stocks for the major grains and oilseeds are expected to total 11.835 million tonnes by the end of the 2017-18 crop year, down considerably from the 13.605 million projected for 2016-17.

The eight major grains and oilseeds include: canola, flaxseed, soybeans, wheat, oats, barley, corn and rye.

Carryout for the major pulse and special crops is forecast at 2.360 million tonnes for 2017-18, up considerably from the 1.630 million forecast for 2016-17.

The seven major specialty and pulse crops are dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seeds.

 

Agriculture Canada’s January estimates for Canadian grain and oilseed supply and demand. In million tonnes.

Domestic usage numbers include food and industrial use as well as feed, waste, and dockage.

2017/18 2016/17 2015/16
All Wheat 29.100 31.729 27.594
Durum 5.800 7.762 5.389
Barley 8.000 8.784 8.226
Corn 12.850 13.193 13.559
Oats 3.300 3.147 3.428
Canola 18.500 18.424 18.377
Flaxseed 0.635 0.579 0.942
Soybeans 6.800 6.463 6.371
TOTAL 79.645 82.891 78.877
Exports
2017/18 2016/17 2015/16
All Wheat 21.300 21.200 21.720
Durum 4.800 4.500 4.541
Barley 2.100 1.900 2.014
Corn 1.000 1.350 1.705
Oats 2.475 2.475 2.228
Canola 9.500 9.500 10.245
Flaxseed 0.600 0.600 0.615
Soybeans 4.600 4.400 4.100
TOTAL 41.748 41.578 42.724
Domestic Use
2017/18 2016/17 2015/16
All Wheat 8.800 9.700 7.865
Durum 1.410 1.773 0.716
Barley 6.475 6.401 6.120
Corn 13.250 12.886 12.338
Oats 0.969 0.970 0.960
Canola 9.100 9.039 8.759
Flaxseed 0.045 0.063 0.162
Soybeans 2.385 2.420 2.666
TOTAL 41.321 41.781 39.144
Stocks
2017/18 2016/17 2015/16
All Wheat 5.200 6.100 5.171
Durum 2.200 2.600 1.101
Barley 1.500 2.000 1.443
Corn 1.900 2.200 2.243
Oats 0.525 0.650 0.930
Canola 2.000 2.000 2.016
Flaxseed 0.200 0.200 0.274
Soybeans 0.350 0.285 0.393
TOTAL 11.835 13.605 12.520
 Pulse  Crops
Production
2017/18 2016/17 2015/16
Dry Peas 4.250 4.835 3.201
Lentils 3.500 3.248 2.541
Dry Beans 0.260 0.234 0.249
Chickpeas 0.145 0.082 0.090
Mustard 0.155 0.234 0.123
Canary 0.130 0.120 0.149
Sunflower 0.055 0.051 0.073
TOTAL 8.495 8.804 6.424
Exports
2017/18 2016/17 2015/16
Dry Peas 3.200 3.200 2.716
Lentils 2.300 2.000 2.147
Dry Beans 0.325 0.319 0.324
Chickpeas 0.080 0.095 0.151
Mustard 0.125 0.115 0.113
Canary 0.125 0.125 0.146
Sunflower 0.035 0.027 0.029
TOTAL 6.190 5.871 5.626
Domestic Use
2017/18 2016/17 2015/16
Dry Peas 0.850 0.961 1.008
Lentils 0.715 0.796 0.702
Dry Beans 0.015 0.000 0.030
Chickpeas 0.058 0.022 0.063
Mustard 0.045 0.047 0.042
Canary 0.005 0.005 0.008
Sunflower 0.045 0.049 0.049
TOTAL 1.733 1.880 1.901
Ending stocks
2017/18 2016/17 2015/16
Dry Peas 1.100 0.875 0.176
Lentils 1.125 0.625 0.073
Dry Beans 0.005 0.005 0.010
Chickpeas 0.020 0.005 0.015
Mustard 0.070 0.085 0.005
Canary 0.005 0.005 0.005
Sunflower 0.035 0.030 0.025
TOTAL 2.360 1.630 0.309

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