Winnipeg, Jan. 30 (CNS Canada) – Canadian farmers are expected to seed more canola but less wheat and barley in 2017 compared to the previous year, according to the first supply-demand estimates from Agriculture Canada for 2017-18 (Aug-Jul).
Total area seeded to all crops is expected to rise slightly, due to a decrease in summerfallow, according to Agriculture Canada’s Market Analysis Group. However, a return to average yields would see production of all crops decline slightly.
Total wheat production in 2017-18 is forecast at 29.1 million tonnes, down from 31.7 million tonnes the previous year.
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Of the total, durum is expected to drop the most, with the projected 5.8 million tonnes well below the 7.7 million grown in 2016-17.
The early estimate for Canadian barley production in 2017-18, at eight million tonnes, down from 8.8 million the previous year.
Canola seedings are forecast to increase to 8.5 million hectares, from 8.2 million in 2016-17.
Canola production is forecast at 18.5 million tonnes, up slightly from the 18.4 million grown the previous year.
For the pulse and special crops, Ag Canada expects slight decreases in both pea and lentil seedings, although a return to average yields would still see lentil production rise on the year.
Total ending stocks for the major grains and oilseeds are expected to total 11.835 million tonnes by the end of the 2017-18 crop year, down considerably from the 13.605 million projected for 2016-17.
The eight major grains and oilseeds include: canola, flaxseed, soybeans, wheat, oats, barley, corn and rye.
Carryout for the major pulse and special crops is forecast at 2.360 million tonnes for 2017-18, up considerably from the 1.630 million forecast for 2016-17.
The seven major specialty and pulse crops are dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas, mustard seed, canary seed and sunflower seeds.
Agriculture Canada’s January estimates for Canadian grain and oilseed supply and demand. In million tonnes.
Domestic usage numbers include food and industrial use as well as feed, waste, and dockage.
2017/18 | 2016/17 | 2015/16 | |
All Wheat | 29.100 | 31.729 | 27.594 |
Durum | 5.800 | 7.762 | 5.389 |
Barley | 8.000 | 8.784 | 8.226 |
Corn | 12.850 | 13.193 | 13.559 |
Oats | 3.300 | 3.147 | 3.428 |
Canola | 18.500 | 18.424 | 18.377 |
Flaxseed | 0.635 | 0.579 | 0.942 |
Soybeans | 6.800 | 6.463 | 6.371 |
TOTAL | 79.645 | 82.891 | 78.877 |
Exports | |||
2017/18 | 2016/17 | 2015/16 | |
All Wheat | 21.300 | 21.200 | 21.720 |
Durum | 4.800 | 4.500 | 4.541 |
Barley | 2.100 | 1.900 | 2.014 |
Corn | 1.000 | 1.350 | 1.705 |
Oats | 2.475 | 2.475 | 2.228 |
Canola | 9.500 | 9.500 | 10.245 |
Flaxseed | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.615 |
Soybeans | 4.600 | 4.400 | 4.100 |
TOTAL | 41.748 | 41.578 | 42.724 |
Domestic Use | |||
2017/18 | 2016/17 | 2015/16 | |
All Wheat | 8.800 | 9.700 | 7.865 |
Durum | 1.410 | 1.773 | 0.716 |
Barley | 6.475 | 6.401 | 6.120 |
Corn | 13.250 | 12.886 | 12.338 |
Oats | 0.969 | 0.970 | 0.960 |
Canola | 9.100 | 9.039 | 8.759 |
Flaxseed | 0.045 | 0.063 | 0.162 |
Soybeans | 2.385 | 2.420 | 2.666 |
TOTAL | 41.321 | 41.781 | 39.144 |
Stocks | |||
2017/18 | 2016/17 | 2015/16 | |
All Wheat | 5.200 | 6.100 | 5.171 |
Durum | 2.200 | 2.600 | 1.101 |
Barley | 1.500 | 2.000 | 1.443 |
Corn | 1.900 | 2.200 | 2.243 |
Oats | 0.525 | 0.650 | 0.930 |
Canola | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.016 |
Flaxseed | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.274 |
Soybeans | 0.350 | 0.285 | 0.393 |
TOTAL | 11.835 | 13.605 | 12.520 |
Pulse | Crops | ||
Production | |||
2017/18 | 2016/17 | 2015/16 | |
Dry Peas | 4.250 | 4.835 | 3.201 |
Lentils | 3.500 | 3.248 | 2.541 |
Dry Beans | 0.260 | 0.234 | 0.249 |
Chickpeas | 0.145 | 0.082 | 0.090 |
Mustard | 0.155 | 0.234 | 0.123 |
Canary | 0.130 | 0.120 | 0.149 |
Sunflower | 0.055 | 0.051 | 0.073 |
TOTAL | 8.495 | 8.804 | 6.424 |
Exports | |||
2017/18 | 2016/17 | 2015/16 | |
Dry Peas | 3.200 | 3.200 | 2.716 |
Lentils | 2.300 | 2.000 | 2.147 |
Dry Beans | 0.325 | 0.319 | 0.324 |
Chickpeas | 0.080 | 0.095 | 0.151 |
Mustard | 0.125 | 0.115 | 0.113 |
Canary | 0.125 | 0.125 | 0.146 |
Sunflower | 0.035 | 0.027 | 0.029 |
TOTAL | 6.190 | 5.871 | 5.626 |
Domestic Use | |||
2017/18 | 2016/17 | 2015/16 | |
Dry Peas | 0.850 | 0.961 | 1.008 |
Lentils | 0.715 | 0.796 | 0.702 |
Dry Beans | 0.015 | 0.000 | 0.030 |
Chickpeas | 0.058 | 0.022 | 0.063 |
Mustard | 0.045 | 0.047 | 0.042 |
Canary | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.008 |
Sunflower | 0.045 | 0.049 | 0.049 |
TOTAL | 1.733 | 1.880 | 1.901 |
Ending stocks | |||
2017/18 | 2016/17 | 2015/16 | |
Dry Peas | 1.100 | 0.875 | 0.176 |
Lentils | 1.125 | 0.625 | 0.073 |
Dry Beans | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.010 |
Chickpeas | 0.020 | 0.005 | 0.015 |
Mustard | 0.070 | 0.085 | 0.005 |
Canary | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.005 |
Sunflower | 0.035 | 0.030 | 0.025 |
TOTAL | 2.360 | 1.630 | 0.309 |