Bad weather around world lifts canola

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Published: September 17, 2010

Canola posted strong gains Friday on frost damage to the Canadian crop on support from other grain prices, which rose on worries about frost in China and poor yield reports in the U.S.Corn futures jumped 17.25 cents per bushel to close at $5.1325 per bu., above $5 for the first time in nearly two years.Some traders now think U.S. corn yields will be around 160 bushels per acre, less than the 162.5 bu. per acre estimate by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Sept. 10 report.Corn got an added boost after the U.S. agriculture secretary said the government was expected to allow higher ethanol blends, up to 15 percent, in some vehicles by next spring.In addition to the freeze damage in Western Canada, traders were concerned about a forecast for killing frost in northeastern China’s corn and soybean belt next week. In northern Brazil, there are concerns about dry weather as the soybean seeding season nears. For maps showing moisture conditions in South America and elsewhere, see http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/ Also, analysts have shaved production estimates in the European Union because of excessively wet weather in Germany.Another factor supporting grain prices was talk of a big investment bank putting $1 billion into commodities.In Winnipeg, November canola rose $7.80 per tonne to $476.20 on 13,324 trades.The January contract rose $7.30 to $480.10 on 6,348 trades.From the close Sept. 10 to the close today, the November contract rose $18.10 per tonne.The previous day’s best basis narrowed to $12.13 per tonne under the November contract in the par region, according to the Winnipeg ICE Futures daily report.The 14-day Relative Strength Index for November was 67 according to BarChart.com. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market.Winnipeg October barley was steady and untraded at $170 per tonne. December rose $2 to $182 on 20 trades.Chicago new crop November soybeans soared 32.75 cents to $10.69 US per bushel. January jumped 32.25 cents to $10.7825.December oats rose 13.5 cents to $3.56 per bu. March oats also rose 13.5 cents to 3.59.In New York, crude oil for October delivery fell 91 cents to $73.66 US per barrel.The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.80 cents US, down from 97.33 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0331 Cdn. The loonie dropped as investors turned to the safety of the greenback after a monthly report on U.S. consumer sentiment came in at its weakest level in more than a year at 66.6, down from 68.9 in August.The TSX composite closed at 12,162.79, down 10.56 points. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.93 point to 1,125.59. The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members processed 108,726 tonnes of canola in the week ending Sept. 15. That was down 8.1 percent from the week before.So far this crop year 696,141 tonnes have been processed, up from 492,170 tonnes at the same point last year.

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