Winnipeg – Canadian canola stocks at the end of both the current 2018/19 (Aug/Jul) crop year and the upcoming 2019/20 crop year are forecast to be much larger than earlier projections, according to updated supply/demand tables from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released March 21.
The agency forecasts canola ending stocks for the current 2018/19 marketing year rising to 3.500 million tonnes, from an earlier estimate of 2.500 million tonnes. The predicted canola carryout for 2019/20 was raised to 3.300 million tonnes, which was up by 800,000 tonnes from the February estimate.
Forecasted canola exports were lowered for both crop years, with “lower import demand from Asia” and “uncertainty over Chinese buying” two of the cited causes for the revisions.
Planted canola area for 2019 is now forecast at 22.24 million acres by Agriculture Canada, which would be down from the 22.81 million acres seeded the previous year and the February estimate of 23.10 million acres.
The latest supply/demand report only included minor adjustments to other crops.
March estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand. In million metric tonnes.
Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
