Canada’s canola sector is struggling to reach its goal of producing 26 million tonnes of the oilseed by 2025. The current estimate of this year’s canola crop is 18.98 million tonnes, and the sector has failed to make much headway since posting the largest crop ever in 2017 at 21.46 million tonnes. Other stories in […] Read more
D'Arce McMillan
Stories by D'Arce McMillan
Smaller canola crop raises price and rationing questions
A disappointing canola harvest is in the bin, judging by the November Statistics Canada crop survey released last week, setting up a potential supply squeeze later this crop year. However, with the Chinese anti-dumping investigation hanging over the market as well as the many worries associated with the incoming Trump administration, it is impossible to […] Read more
Talking turkey about the actual cost of a holiday meal
A recent news story about the cost of an American Thanksgiving meal that triggered a social media response was interesting in several ways. It highlighted the public’s continuing concern with food inflation as well as its misunderstanding of how news operations work. Granted, this was a social media squall, not a storm, but it was […] Read more
Tariff war might again roil oilseed markets
A report commissioned by the American Soybean Association and the U.S. National Corn Growers Association warns that a new trade war between the United States and China would cost American farmers while benefiting producers in Brazil and Argentina. See Sean Pratt’s story on the report here. President-elect Donald Trump says that when he takes office […] Read more
U.S. policy shifts join weather, economics as market movers
Crop market forecasting for the coming months has become more complicated as questions about American policy direction are added to the usual issues about weather and economic developments. Donald Trump is busy selecting loyalists for his cabinet. With both houses of Congress also in Republican hands and likely to be in tune with Trump’s agenda, […] Read more
Global oil surplus expected to weigh down crude prices
Signs point to stable to lower crude oil prices in 2025 because global production is expected to easily keep up with demand. Further downward pressure on prices might develop with the return of Donald Trump to the White House and a Republican majority in the U.S. Senate and maybe the House of Representatives. The new […] Read more
Canola goals must be reassessed to match market reality
Canada’s canola sector is struggling to reach its goal of producing 26 million tonnes of the oilseed by 2025. The current estimate of this year’s canola crop is 18.98 million tonnes, and the sector has failed to make much headway since posting the largest crop ever in 2017 at 21.46 million tonnes. New crushing capacity […] Read more
Increases in palm oil diesel might impact veg oil prices
Plans to increase the amount of palm oil in Indonesia’s biodiesel fuel supply should support global vegetable oil prices, which in turn should support canola values. But other issues also affect vegetable oil prices, so it’s not certain that values will rise. Indonesia is the world’s largest palm oil producer and exporter. It already has […] Read more
Central banks ponder how fast to reduce interest rates
The latest inflation and employment reports show the Canadian economy could be cooling too fast, prompting several prominent economists to encourage the Bank of Canada to aggressively cut interest rates. The bank met this week and was expected to cut its key rate by at least 25 basis points or more. This column was written […] Read more
Prices of crops, oil bounce back from late summer lows
Weather issues and international tensions are lifting prices of several commodities off lows hit in late August and early September. Wheat production estimates and forecasts are down because of weather challenges in Russia, Argentina and elsewhere, helping to lift wheat futures. Crude oil prices are bouncing back as worries mount about a potential Middle East […] Read more
