The big question leading into this forecast period is — just how long will the summery temperatures will continue? After all we are now into October.
Daniel Bezte
Stories by Daniel Bezte
Can folklore predict winter weather?
I thought it might be fun to take a closer look at some weather folklore and try to dissect them a little bit to see if they are or can be used to predict future weather.
Prairie forecast: Looks like summer weather
Highlights: We appear to be in a fairly predictable weather pattern as the overall weather picture has been pretty good. We saw upper-level ridging last week bring average to above average temperatures across the Prairies. The forecasted area of low pressure over the eastern Prairies materialized as forecasted. As often typical with upper-level lows, the […] Read more
Extreme rain increases as planet warms
In this issue, we are going to wrap up our look at extreme rainfall by examining the different weather patterns that tend to be associated with these rainfall events.
Prairie forecast: Warm, dry west; warm, unsettled east
Highlights Summary Last week’s forecast did well considering the unusually blocking pattern that developed. An area of low pressure did develop as expected over the west-central U.S. It tried to push northwards and eastwards but was kept mostly in place by a strong ridge of high pressure over the central and eastern Prairies. The models […] Read more
Storm dynamics and extreme rainfall
Besides moisture, instability and orographic lift, the next biggest factor that contributes to heavy or extreme rainfall is storm dynamics.
A warm start for fall weather
After a cooler than average July, August saw a reversal with all the main reporting stations reporting above average temperatures.
Prairie forecast: Cool east, warm west
Forecast issued September 3, covering Sept. 3 to 10, 2025
We start this period with a large upper low over northern Ontario, an area of Arctic high pressure building southwards over Manitoba and strong but narrow upper ridge of high pressure over B.C. This particular setup is going to bring cool temperatures over the eastern Prairies for the next several days. Western regions will stay on the mild side.
Factors that can cause heavy rainfall
There are several factors that can contribute to an extreme rainfall event, the first is atmospheric moisture.
Prairie forecast: Warm and dry for the long weekend
Forecast issued August 27, covering Aug. 27 to Sept. 3, 2025
This forecast period is looking straightforward as surface high pressure and upper-level ridging looks to dominate the forecast. This should bring what looks to be an extended period of sunny skies and warm to hot temperatures.
