AM Market Report – September 9, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are trading mostly $2/tonne lower on the front month contracts to start this morning. Traders are showing little to no response to this morning’s StatCan grain stocks report for end-of-the-old-crop marketing year at July 31 (2024-25).

Chicago soybean futures are around 2 cents/bu lower this morning. Soybean market bulls might at least be somewhat encouraged that meal futures prices appear to have stabilized following recent selling pressure. Bean oil is weaker though.

Chicago corn futures are down 2 cents/bu this morning, though corn market bulls continue to show some resilience on price setbacks.

US wheat futures markets are trading 1 to 3 cents lower. While slightly weaker this morning, perhaps wheat markets are stabilizing after posting strong gains yesterday. But in order inspire confidence that the long bear market in wheat may be subsiding, bulls must show follow-through buying strength today or Wednesday before we can even suggest market bottoms are in place.

In addition to this morning’s StatCan grain stocks report (see below), trade focus will be on Friday’s USDA monthly supply/demand report. The USDA’s September report will include field counts of US corn ears and soybean pod counts. Corn will still be dealing with huge US production/stocks, while large US soybean production will have to deal with China still avoiding buying US beans. Reports are China has their Sept/Oct and first half of November covered needs covered and will continue to look to South America for needs. US–China trade talks remain largely stalled, with negotiators making little headway toward a comprehensive deal.

The USDA’s national US crop ratings mostly declined over the past week. Many key US growing areas had a dry start to September and ratings typically dip ahead of harvest. 68% of US corn is rated good to excellent as of Sunday, down 1% from a week ago, with 95% at the dough making stage, 74% dented, 25% mature, and 4% harvested, all close to normal.

64% of US soybeans are in good to excellent shape, 1% lower for the week, with 97% at the pod setting stage and 21% of the crop dropping leaves, both near their five-year averages.

85% of US spring wheat is harvested, slightly ahead of average. 5% of US winter wheat is planted, just behind the usual rate of 6%.

In Other News

– Canadian grain stocks reported for 2024-25 marketing year-end…Statistics Canada this morning reported its analysis of Canadian grain stocks as of the closed of the 2024-25 crop marketing on July 31. They see total stocks of Canadian wheat, canola and oats were down, while stocks of barley, dry peas and lentils increased, as of July 31, compared with the same date one year earlier.

Before getting into some details, I should note that starting this year, the data for the on-farm stock component of this StatCan report now uses “modelling” of historical survey estimates and administrative data…no longer a survey of farmers. They call this new methodology a continuation of the AgZero initiative, which aims to reduce respondent burden while producing high-quality estimates using alternative methods. Maybe…but I’m not really sure how this works if being honest.

Data on commercial stocks of western major crops though continues to originate from the Canadian Grain Commission. Data on commercial stocks of special crops originate from a survey of handlers and agents of special crops.

Wheat stocks down on higher exports

StatCan reports that total stocks of Canadian wheat fell 22.1% year over year to 4.1 MMT as of July 31. Both commercial stocks (-10.1% to 2.4 MMT) and on-farm stocks (-34.3% to 1.7 MMT) were down compared with one year earlier. The decrease in total wheat stocks was attributable both to stocks of wheat excluding durum (-21.5% to 3.6 MMT) and to durum wheat stocks (-25.9% to 496,000 tonnes).

Deliveries of wheat rose 9.1% year over year to 35.2 MMT as of July 31. Total wheat exports rose 15.4% to a record 29.2 MMT on strong global demand, possibly due to lower exports from other major wheat exporting countries.

Canola stocks fall as crush continues to expand

Total stocks of canola decreased 50.5% year over year to 1.6 MMT as of July 31 on lower commercial stocks (-37.9% to 1.2 MMT) and on-farm stocks (-70.1% to 378,000 tonnes).

Industrial use, mostly for crushing, rose 3.4% to a record 11.4 MMT as the processing industry continued to expand. Canola exports rose 39.7% to 9.3 MMT as of July 31, because of strong international demand.

Higher stocks of dry peas and lentils

Total stocks of dry peas rose 63.5% year over year to 489,000 tonnes as of July 31. On-farm stocks more than doubled, rising to 253,000 tonnes, while commercial stocks increased 20.4% to 236,000 tonnes. Exports of dry peas fell 9.5% to 2.2 MMT.

Stocks of lentils totalled 549,000 tonnes (+232.7%) as of July 31, largely because of higher total supply compared with one year earlier. On-farm stocks rose to 395,000 tonnes, while commercial stocks were up 11.6% to 154,000 tonnes. As of July 31, exports of lentils increased 8.8% year over year to 1.8 MMT.

Barley stocks increase

Barley stocks rose as of July 31, up 8.4% from the previous crop year to 1.2 MMT. The increase was attributable to higher on-farm stocks (+13.2% to 994,000 tonnes), which offset lower commercial stocks (-6.6% to 255,000 tonnes).

Deliveries of barley off farm decreased 6.0% to 4.1 MMT as of July 31, while exports fell 7.2% year over year to 2.8 MMT. Barley used largely for feed purposes fell 2.6% to 5.1 MMT.

Oat stocks fall

Total stocks of oats were down 24.3% year over year to 507,000 tonnes as of July 31. Commercial stocks rose 3.4% to 245,000 tonnes, while on-farm stocks fell 39.6% to 262,000 tonnes.

Lower oat stocks were driven by lower total supply for the crop year (-2.8% to 4.0 MMT) and higher oat exports (+8.5% to 2.6 MMT).

– Canola support gets mixed response… A series of canola industry support measures announced by the federal government are being met with mixed reviews. The heart of the package announced last week includes $370 million in biofuel production incentives aimed at making Canada’s producers more competitive with their counterparts in the United States. Also, Ottawa is temporarily doubling the interest-free portion for canola advances in the Advance Payments Program to $500,000. The new rules will be in place for the remainder of the 2025 program and the 2026 program year.

The news was welcomed, but the canola sector said the government support still came up short considering the dueling canola trade challenges with China and the United States. Follow the link for Sean Pratt’s more detailed report…

Canola support gets mixed response

– The fight to preserve North American trade… In the coming weeks, consultations are expected to kick off over the renewal of the continental free-trade pact, the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Automobiles, dairy supply management, digital regulation and relationships with China are all expected to be on the table. After months of wrangling over tariffs, the real discussion about the future of North American trade is only just beginning.

Soon, the clock will officially start on one of the most consequential trade negotiations in Canada’s history. The CUSMA was scheduled to be reviewed after six years, with July 1, 2026, as the formal renewal date.

– Yellow pea prices drop in middle of harvest… Yellow pea prices have collapsed due to tepid demand, according to Stat Publishing. They say markets are worried by the slow pace of open season demand, especially from Asian destinations. Yellow pea prices in Saskatchewan clock in around the area of $6.74/bu, down from over $9.00/bu a couple of weeks earlier, a 27% drop.

China announced in March that it was implementing a 100% tariff on Canadian peas in part of its response to its anti-discrimination investigation regarding Canada’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products. That was a big blow to the pea industry that is coming to roost as harvest pressure mounts. China has been the top buyer of Canadian yellow peas since 2017 when India started reducing its purchases.

Outside Markets

US stock market indexes are trending just slightly higher this morning as investors weighed expectations of a US interest rate cut as early as next week against political upheavals including the French government’s collapse. Wall Street futures were in modest positive territory after the Nasdaq yesterday notched another record close, while Canada’s TSX stock index futures are pointed higher.

French President Emmanuel Macron is seeking his fifth prime minister in less than two years after opposition parties united to kick out centre-right Prime Minister Francois Bayrou over his unpopular plans for budget tightening.

The September US Dollar Index is up 0.088 at 97.500. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.37 US cents.

October crude oil futures are up $0.94 at US $63.20/barrel. Oil extended gains, supported by OPEC+’s latest oil output hike being smaller than anticipated, expectations that China will continue stockpiling oil and concerns over potential new sanctions on Russia.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 2 cents/bu lower this morning. Bean futures rallied Monday to close out the session 6 to 7 cents higher. Soymeal futures are up $1 to $2/ton this morning…adding to yesterday’s $1 to $4 gains in the front months. Soyoil futures are 15 to 23 points weaker.

The trade is taking a wait and see attitude to any potential frost damage from the weekend, while getting ready for Friday’s USDA supply/demand report.

The big bearish issue continues to be the lack of export demand from China, which has not purchased any new crop US soybeans outright.

Chicago corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower to start this morning. The corn market on Monday battled back from early losses to finish 3 to 4 cents at the final bell.

Most of the US Corn Belt is expected to be dry this week, allowing early harvest activity to make a solid advance. As of Sunday, 68% of US corn is called good to excellent, 1% lower than reported the previous week. It’s been a dry finish to the growing season in many areas and the USDA could trim its yield guess later this week, but the trade still expects a record large US corn crop for 2025.

US wheat markets are edging mostly 1 to 3 cents lower this morning. Wheats are giving some of Monday gains back this morning. The US wheat complex saw strength on Monday, with the hard red contracts pushing higher…spring wheat rallied up 10 to 11 cents on the session on short covering and technical buying.

Wheat is oversold and due for a bounce, even if long-term gains could be limited by the large available world supply. Any adjustments to the global numbers will be watched very closely in Friday’s USDA US/world supply/demand report. Recent frost in Argentina might impact yields, but conditions in Australia look mostly favorable.

APK-Inform now has Ukraine’s wheat crop at 19.7 MMT, up 1.2 MMT from the last guess, with exports of 15.3 MMT, a rise of 1.4 MMT. SovEcon lifted its estimate of Russia’s wheat crop to 86.1 MMT…still the gorilla of the international wheat export market.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures rebounded from losses on Friday to post double-digit gains on Monday. Strength in Chicago soybeans and soyoil helped to lift the Canadian market.

November canola climbed $10.50 yesterday to close at $627.30/tonne, and January was $10.40 higher at $638.60.

For today… canola futures are trading narrowly between $1 and $3/tonne lower to start this morning. Nov canola futures are slipping $3.50 lower at $623.80/tonne, giving back a portion of Monday’s quick pop higher, and still entrenched in a steep price downtrend from the June high.

News last week that China has delayed the final ruling on its Canadian canola anti-dumping investigation until March 9, 2026, sent a small wave of enthusiasm through the market…until it was realized at China new 76% preliminary tariff on our canola still stands in the meantime. But at least some political discussion inertia between Ottawa and Beijing has been initiated…though I’m not expecting any quick results.

Canadian canola now priced similar to Western Australia and below EU/Ukraine. Needed as non-China markets must absorb volume. But if China does not come to our market, there’s more room to the downside as we will need to try to find other markets to replace the China demand monster.

Related market influences…slightly weaker CBOT soybean and bean oil futures this morning. EU rapeseed are trading higher, while Malaysian palm oil is slightly softer.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/