AM Market Report – September 8, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are seeing some $5 to $6/tonne bounce back so far this morning after futures and Prairie cash bids declined during the first week of September…down hard in fact through most of the summer. Canola futures today are operating at 5-month lows with harvest now well underway and export demand from China largely absent.

Chicago soybean futures are posting small fractional to 1 cents/bu gains this morning after fading badly last week. The market’s focus seems to be on the lack of demand for US cargoes from top importer China.

Chicago corn futures are mostly 1 to 2 cents weaker. The corn market slipping slightly last week, but has trended up from its early August contract lows. Strong US exports are keeping a floor on the corn market.

US winter wheat futures markets are mostly 2 cents higher this morning, while spring wheat futures are narrowly mixed though leaning a penny higher. Wheat futures markets continue to be mired in price downtrends and pressured into contract lows still searching for a bottom.

Grain traders’ focus this week will be on Tuesday’s Statistics Canada end of 2024-25 marketing year (July 31) Canadian grain stocks report (Sept 9), then Friday’s monthly USDA supply/demand report (Sept 12).

In Other News

– Canada pledges money, regulatory reform to support biofuels… The federal government is rolling out a suite of new measures to strengthen Canada’s canola sector and broader agriculture industry against mounting trade and policy challenges. The initiatives, announced Friday, include immediate incentives for domestic biofuel producers, expanded loan and cash advance programs for farmers, and long-term trade diversification strategies aimed at reducing reliance on a handful of key markets.

At the heart of the plan is a new Biofuels Production Incentive valued at more than $370 million over two years, set to run from January 2026 through December 2027. The program will provide per-litre payments to Canadian producers of biodiesel and renewable diesel, capped at 300 million litres per facility.

The government said it will introduce targeted amendments to the Clean Fuel Regulations to facilitate the incentive, while maintaining the regulations’ core focus on reducing the carbon intensity of Canadian fuels.

On the financing side, the government is doubling down on supports through the Advance Payments Program (APP). The APP provides low-interest cash advances to farmers of up to $1 million, with a portion interest-free. Earlier this year, the interest-free limit was raised to $250,000. To address ongoing volatility, the government is now temporarily doubling that limit to $500,000 for canola producers through the remainder of the 2025 program year and into 2026.

Given that canola growers account for 41% of APP users, the measure is expected to significantly improve cash flow flexibility, Ottawa said. “The expanded support will give canola producers greater financial flexibility to manage risk, invest in their operations and remain competitive in uncertain markets.”

The measures were in response to two developments…

1) China after it hit Canadian canola seed with a 75.8% tariff last month…a move widely seen as a counterattack to Canada’s 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, and

2) Changing US biofuel policies under the Trump administration that impose restrictions on foreign feedstocks to supply US bio- and renewable diesel production.

Recognizing the risks of overdependence on a narrow set of trading partners, Ottawa is also investing in trade diversification. The government will inject an additional $75 million over five years into Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s AgriMarketing Program, beginning in 2026-27. The expanded program will promote Canadian agri-food products in high-growth regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific—markets identified as strategic under Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy. Activities will include trade missions, branding campaigns, market research, and exporter training, with a particular emphasis on sectors most affected by trade barriers, including canola.

– US-Canada to hold more trade talks… Canada and the US agreed to hold technical talks on sectoral tariffs. The talks are focused on reaching common understandings about options that may form a series of small deals to put Canada in a better position, said Canadian minister responsible for Canada-US Trade, Dominic LeBlanc. Canada is facing US tariffs on its steel, aluminum, auto and lumber exports. Last week, Prime Minister Mark Carney told reporters he had a “very constructive” conversation with US President Donald Trump and believes they can reach agreements on some tariff-affected industries.

– China delays final ruling in canola dispute with top supplier Canada...China on Friday prolonged its probe into Canadian canola imports, buying six more months for negotiations that could ease a year-long trade dispute sparked by Ottawa’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. The Ministry of Commerce said the anti-dumping probe would now run until March 9, 2026, citing the complexity of the case. Beijing, the world’s largest importer of canola, imposed preliminary duties of 75.8% on Canadian canola seed imports in August. Unfortunately, that formidable tariff rate will remain in place in the meantime while we wait for a final ruling that may result in a different rate, or overturn the decision.

“The extension buys some time for both sides to seek a negotiated solution,” said Even Rogers Pay, an analyst at Beijing-based Trivium China who specialises in agriculture. “Ultimately, the best case scenario for Beijing would be to strike a deal in which it drops the investigation and Canada lifts tariffs on Chinese vehicles and metals. But given the complexities involved as Canada tries to keep its US trade relationship stable, that will be easier said than done.”

Canada, the world’s largest exporter of canola, shipped almost $5 billion of canola products to China in 2024, about 80% of which was seed. The steep duties on canola seed, if they remain in place, would likely all but end those imports. China, which relies on Canada for nearly all of its canola seed supplies, also imposed tariffs on canola oil and meal in March.

Ottawa has grown increasingly anxious about losing a key customer, especially as China appears to be pivoting towards Australian supplies. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney said he and other senior officials would work to resolve the canola dispute.

– Blois joining Sask-led delegation to China… Kody Blois, who formerly served as chair of the House of Commons’ agriculture committee and as agriculture minister for a short stint prior to the last federal election will be joining the Saskatchewan government’s delegation to China for meetings (Sept 6-9) on agricultural tariffs. The delegation will be led by Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe.

– Cargill’s Regina crush plant gearing up… Canola growers finally have some good news to celebrate. Cargill’s brand-new Regina crush facility is coming online just as farmers are reeling from the loss of their top canola seed export market (China). “At a time of uncertainty in the canola markets, to have domestic demand is a really good opportunity for farmers,” said Cargill Limited president Jeff Vassart. The company will start commissioning the plant in the next couple of months, so it will be up and running before the end of the calendar year. Once fully operational it will purchase and process 1 MMT of canola seed per year.

There were originally three large crush projects planned for Regina. But earlier this year, Federated Co-operatives Ltd. paused plans to build its $2 billion Integrated Agriculture Complex at Regina for “the foreseeable future.” The plan included a canola crush facility jointly owned by AGT Food and Ingredients capable of processing 1.1 MMT of seed per year.

There are also reports that Viterra is shelving its plan to build a plant capable of processing 2.5 MMT of seed annually.

– US Supreme Court could decide tariffs’ fate… The US Supreme Court is increasingly likely to decide the fate of US President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, and the possibility of broken trade deals and billions in refunds if they are nullified, after the White House petitioned the high court last week for an emergency hearing.

The request followed a federal appeals court’s 7-4 ruling that the president cannot impose country-specific import taxes under a 1977 law regarding national emergencies. Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has recklessly wielded that law to place individual duties on dozens of US trade partners, including a 35% tariff on non-CUSMA compliant goods from Canada, though most Canada-US agricultural trade remains tariff-free for now.

Sector-specific tariffs the White House has imposed on products like steel, aluminum and autos fall under a different law and so are exempt from the court’s ruling.

If the Supreme Court takes up the case and nullifies last week’s appeals court ruling, all of Trump’s current tariffs would stand for the foreseeable future, and notable trade deals his administration has recently forged with key partners would remain in place.

If the Supreme Court upholds the lower court’s ruling, however, the current average US effective tariff rate of 16.3% would fall “by at least half, and could force the United States to refund tens of billions of dollars” already collected. It likely also would undo many of the Trump administration’s trade deals, which were prompted by the imposition of country-specific levies in the first place.

– White House review of biofuel waiver plan pits farmers against refiners…The White House is reviewing a high-stakes rule that could reshape the balance of interests between US oil refiners and farmers by determining how – or even whether – to redistribute huge volumes of US biofuel blending obligations that were recently exempted under the US Renewable Fuel Standard. The outcome, expected in the coming weeks, will determine the fate of billions of gallons of US ethanol and biodiesel demand that is seen as vital to farmers who supply the corn and oilseeds to produce biofuels, but costly to oil refiners that ensure the biofuels are mixed into the nation’s fuel supplies.

Biofuel mandates were created to cut greenhouse gas emissions and reduce reliance on fossil fuels, but the Trump administration has largely sidelined that climate goal while prioritizing expanded oil and gas production.

Last month, the US Environmental Protection Agency cleared a backlog of more than 170 applications from small refineries, dating back to 2016, for waivers exempting them from the obligation to blend biofuels under the RFS, the nation’s biofuel law. More than 140 were granted, either fully or in part. That action opened the door to a new supplemental rule on whether and how to force larger refiners to make up for the exempted gallons, a step biofuel producers have long demanded to ensure the annual blending quotas remain whole.

The EPA delivered its draft rule to the White House last week…a proposal addressing how to redistribute exempted volumes from 2023 and beyond, though no public details yet.

The White House is expected to expedite the review, making the proposal public roughly two weeks ahead of a 30-day public comment period.

– China soybean imports rise to record high for August... China’s soybean imports rose to their highest-ever level for the month of August, a Reuters calculation of customs data showed, as buyers snapped up large volumes from South America amid ongoing Sino-US trade tensions. The world’s top soybean buyer brought in 12.28 MMT in August, up 1.2% from 12.14 MMT a year earlier.

Most of the soybeans imported last month are expected to be from top soy exporter Brazil. China has yet to officially book any US soybean imports for the US harvest period from September to January, leaving US exporters at risk of missing out on billions of dollars in sales as trade talks drag on. To offset the absence of US supply, Chinese importers are also increasing purchases from Argentina and Uruguay.

– Timely monsoon boosts India’s summer crop prospects... The timely, well spread and sufficient 2025 south west monsoon in India has supported higher sowing of most fall harvested crops, including rice corn and pulses, according to a report from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Overall rainfall through the season has been normal and above normal in most weather subdivisions (32), and deficient in only four sub-divisions. Overall water storage as of Aug. 14 was at more than 107% of the corresponding period last year and nearly 124% of the last 10-year average.

“Forecasted continued good rains through September will further improve reservoir levels, thus augmenting irrigation water availability for the standing fall harvested kharif (fall harvested) crops and upcoming winter planted rabi crops,” the FAS said.

– Food grocers urge grain traders to uphold Brazil’s soy moratorium… Large food retailers in Europe have urged global grain traders to defend Brazil’s soy moratorium initiative, a pact designed to protect the Amazon rainforest from soy-driven deforestation amid farmer efforts to suspend the program. In a letter dated Sept 5, food grocers…including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Lidl and Aldi…directly ask the CEOs of ADM, Bunge, Cargill, Louis Dreyfus Company and China’s Cofco to publicly reaffirm their commitment to banning soybean purchases from Amazonian farmers who cleared land there after a 2008 cut-off date.

“We are writing to you at a critical moment for the future of the Amazon Soy Moratorium, an initiative your companies have championed, protecting the Amazon for nearly two decades…”, the letter said, adding Brazil’s competition authority CADE decision to suspend the program in August “poses a serious threat to this vital agreement.”

– Rented farmland jumps in Saskatchewan and Alberta… The amount of rented farmland in Saskatchewan and Alberta shot upward in the 2010s, reports Robert Aranson of the Western Producer. Farmland rented or leased in the two provinces went from 25.7 million acres in 2011 to 29.1 million in 2021, says Census of Agriculture data. That means over a decade, about 3.4 million acres moved from owned and operated to the “rented” land category. The 3.4 million acres includes cropland and ranchland.

The data matches what real estate agents and producers have noticed over the last 15 years — less farmland is coming up for sale on the Prairies. In January 2012, about 850 Saskatchewan farms were listed on the MLS real estate platform, said Tim Hammond, who operates Hammond Realty in Biggar, Sask. “Over the next 10 years, that (figure) dropped and dropped and dropped.”

As of this August, 265 Saskatchewan farms were listed on the MLS.

– Metals markets soar… Gold prices last week hit an all-time record high, while silver notched a 14-year high. Safe-haven demand is driving the metals markets higher. A main bullish element is lower interest rates that are likely yet this year. Another bullish fundamental for the safe-haven metals are jittery bond markets. Global bonds yields (interest rates) are on the rise (correspondingly lower bond prices) mostly due to worries about inflation, government debt, fiscal discipline…oh, an erratic US president.

Uncertainty surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s independence is only adding to the bond market pressures and general trader and investor anxiety…bullish for gold and silver.

History shows September and October can be rough for the stock, financial and currency sectors, yet another positive for gold and silver.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 220.43 points lower on Friday to settle at 45,400.86, while the S&P 500 was down 20.58 points to 6,481.50. Early Monday, September Dow Jones Futures are up 106 points.

Global stock markets are rising this morning after dismal US labour data on Friday appeared to seal the case for a US interest rate cut this month. Wall Street futures are in modestly positive territory this morning after major US markets closed lower on Friday as investors assessed a soft US jobs report. TSX futures are pointed higher, as bets on a Bank of Canada interest rate cut this month buoyed Canada’s main stock index to another record on Friday.

On Friday, Statistics Canada reported the Canadian unemployment rate ticked up to 7.1% in August as the economy lost 66,000 jobs for the month. The report follows the July labour force survey that showed a loss of 41,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 6.9%. The report overall was bad news. Youth unemployment remains high, with that age group previously making up most of the drag on jobs. But now, these losses in August were among the core age group in the workforce. So this report is arguably the weakest since the pandemic days, with the full effects of the uncertainty brought by the Trump trade war now starting to land on the Canadian economy. This jobs report comes ahead of the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision set for Sept. 17.

Also on Friday, the US labour market picture was also bleak. Unemployment rose in that country to 4.3%…a four-year high…confirming that US labour market conditions were softening and potentially advancing the case for an interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve this month. The US economy added a mere 22,000 jobs in August, which was a substantial miss from the 75,000 figure that economists polled by Reuters had been forecasting.

US job growth has stalled, with economists blaming US President Donald Trump’s sweeping import tariffs and an immigration crackdown that has reduced the labour pool.

The September US Dollar Index is down 0.238 at 97.490. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.52 US cents.

October crude oil futures are up $0.93 at US $62.80/barrel. Oil prices climbed, regaining some of last week’s losses, helped by the prospect of more sanctions on Russian crude after heavy weekend air strikes on Ukraine.

OPEC+ flagged plans to further increase oil production from October by 137,000 barrels per day, much lower than the monthly increases of about 555,000 bpd for September and August and 411,000 bpd in July and June. That’s a slowing in the pace of increases compared with previous months due to an anticipated weakening of global demand. OPEC+ has been increasing production since April after years of cuts to support the oil market.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are showing fractional to 1 cent/bu gains to start this morning. Bean futures finished weaker on Friday, pushing lower into the close, as contracts shed 5 to 6 cents at the final bell. Nov bean futures fell 27.5 cents last week.

Soymeal futures are mostly flat this morning, though weaker last week. Soyoil futures are gaining 54 to 57 points this morning, retrieving most of Friday’s losses.

There is some trade talk of frost affecting the northern US Corn Belt over the weekend, though damage to the bean crop, if any, is unknown at this point.

The lack of demand from China is concerning, with US new crop soybean sales falling behind both last year and the five-year average. In USDA’s reporting schedule, there is a growing body of US bean export sales to “unknown destinations”. Could some of that be China…otherwise not a single US bean has been officially stated for sale to China yet for 2025-26.

Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report revealed that money managers hold a slight net long position of 11,964 contracts in soybean futures markets.

Chicago corn futures are down 1 to 2 cents this morning. The corn market slipped fractionally to 2 cents lower into Friday’s close, failing to hold the midday gains. Dec corn futures were 2.25 cents lower on the week.

Strong exports are providing underlying support to the corn market. On Friday, the USDA’s weekly export sales report showed new crop US corn sales of 2.11 MMT, at the high end of the trade’s expectations.

The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders trimming 19,199 contracts from their net short position in corn futures as of Sept 2. By Tuesday, their net short stood at 91,487 contracts.

US wheat markets are trying to inch higher this morning…winter wheats are up 2 cents, while Minnie spring wheat futures are more fractionally to a penny higher. On Friday, the US wheat complex turned from midday gains to finish lower across most contracts to round out the week. Spring wheat saw 4 to 5 cent losses on the day, with the Dec contract down 14 cents on the week.

New spring wheat contract lows were forged last week amid continued technical selling, though hedge pressure was also a likely culprit as North American harvest efforts advance. Current prices are certainly positive to inspire demand.

USDA’s weekly export sales report from Friday morning showed a total of just 312,978 tonnes of US wheat sold in the week of August 28, below estimates and the second lowest for the marketing year. US FOB prices are competitive on the world market, though general buyer demand has been sluggish amid eroding prices worldwide and sentiment of ample global supply.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures closed lower on Friday, initially rallying but then falling back following the news that China was extending its anti-dumping investigation against Canadian supplies for another six months.

Beijing initially announced a preliminary duty of 75.8% last month, but cited the complexity of the case in granting the six-month extension to come to a final decision. The final ruling on the matter could either confirm, reduce, or overturn the duties.

In a joint news release, Canadian canola groups said they were cautiously optimistic, noting the extra time provides the Canadian and Chinese governments more opportunity to work towards a resolution. But as far as I can tell, China’s preliminary tariffs remain in effect…so not really the encouraging news we all hope for. Canola initially rallied on the China news, but was pulled back to losses amid steep losses in Chicago soyoil and declines in crude oil. European rapeseed was higher while palm oil did not trade.

Also on Friday, the federal government announced a suite of new measures to strengthen Canada’s canola sector and broader agriculture industry against mounting trade and policy challenges.

November canola dropped $3.40 on Friday to close at $616.80/tonne, and January fell $3.90 to $628.20.

For today… canola futures are rebounding $5 to $6/tonne higher so far this morning. Nov canola is $5.90 higher right now at $622.70/tonne, recovering a portion of last week’s $9.60 loss. But it remains a bear market in canola this summer…both on futures and Prairie cash pricing…Nov futures down $121/tonne since posting its high on June 19.

There’s some talk of intermittent weekend frost across some eastern areas of the Canadian Prairies and northern US states over the weekend…proving some price support to the oilseeds. Impacts are unknown, but would only be a quality issue (if any) on canola. Western areas are making good harvest progress now…and weather conditions for the coming week appear favorable for all of Western Canada.

News last week that China has delayed the final ruling on its Canadian canola anti-dumping investigation until March 9, 2026, sent a small wave of enthusiasm through the market…until it was realized at China new 76% preliminary tariff on our canola still stands in the meantime. But at least some political discussion inertia between Ottawa and Beijing has been initiated…though I’m not expecting any quick results.

Canadian canola now priced similar to Western Australia and below EU/Ukraine. Needed as non-China markets must absorb volume. But if China does not come to our market, there’s more room to the downside as we will need to try to find other markets to replace the China demand monster.

Related market influences…slightly higher CBOT soybean futures this morning, with soyoil bouncing back amid a similar rebound in crude oil this morning. EU rapeseed are mixed to leaning slightly higher, while Malaysian palm oil is ticking a bit higher.

Meanwhile, Friday’s Commitments of Traders report confirmed managed money traders had continued selling off their long positions in ICE canola futures during the week ending Sept 2. After another 9,044 contracts being liquidated on the week, they had reduced their net-long position to just 20,160 contracts.

On the feed grains… MarketsFarm reporter Adam Peleshaty writes that Prairie feed barley prices appear to have stabilized this past week. Susanne Leclerc, owner of Edmonton-based Market Master Ltd., said demand for feed grains is reduced at harvest season. Prices usually come down, but barley has stayed put over the past week due to the variation in bids amongst buyers.

“If you shop around, it seems to have stabilized. If you’re not, it’s down. It’s so hard to say that it’s down or up because the variation is so huge. We’re seeing a 40 cent (per bushel) spread amongst buyers in the same market,” Leclerc said.

She also noted the average feed barley price in Lethbridge, Alta. was $255 to $260/tonne. Buyers are also tending to purchase grain from more local areas rather than grain that is shipped into an area like US corn.

Delivered bids of Alberta feed barley ranged from $4.50 to $5.94/bu, down 48 cents from the month before as of Sept 3, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. In Saskatchewan, the range was $4.50 to $4.75/bu, down 50 cents. In Manitoba, only a bid of $4.45/bu was reported, down 52 cents from a month ago.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/