AM Market Report – September 3, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

It was easy come, easy go for ICE canola futures that are giving back all of yesterday’s brief bounce…trading $8/tonne lower this morning after rising $3 to $4/tonne yesterday following a five straight session sell-off last week.

Chicago soybean futures are falling another 3 to 4 cents/bu this morning. Traders are showing their reluctance to let the soybean market rise without any fresh trade news between the US and China. Beans are also being pulled down this week by a deteriorating meal futures market. Nov bean futures have seen August’s rebound price trend stall out…and we need to see the meal market start to perform better to revive price support in soybeans.

Chicago corn futures are down 2 to 3 cents, though still holding key technical support from the bounce off the August lows. Traders are wary of reports that pockets of yield-sapping disease and dry conditions in parts of the US Midwest farm belt would trim yields as farmers prepare to harvest what was expected to be a record-large US corn crop this autumn.

US wheat markets are mixed… Minnie spring wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents lower (fresh contract lows), HRW is steady, while SRW wheat is 1 to 2 cents weaker. Wheat markets are still trending relentlessly lower, weighed down by reports of adequate global supply and harvest activity.

Strong export demand has kept a floor under the corn market, but a lack of new crop soybean purchases by China and slow progress in securing a US-China trade deal have kept soy futures under pressure.

Beijing’s hosting this week of non-Western leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has underscored its geopolitical opposition to the United States.

US corn and soybean crop condition ratings dipped slightly last week. The USDA says as of Sunday that 69% of US corn is in good to excellent condition, down 2% from the previous week, with 15% of the crop mature and 58% dented.

US soybeans are rated 65% good to excellent, down 4% on the week, with 11% of the crop dropping leaves and 94% setting pods.

The US spring wheat harvest is 72% finished, one percentage point ahead of the five-year average.

In Other News

The big chill coming through… The US National Weather Service reports a strong cold front will continue to sweep to the south and east across Saskatchewan/Manitoba into the Great Lakes region, upper US Midwest, and the central US Plains today, ushering in a much cooler airmass in its wake. In addition to bringing unseasonably chilly temps into the region, the cold front will also kick off fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms as it moves through, with the potential for storms to become strong to severe across portions of the central US Plains this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and very large hail are the primary concerns with these storms, though an isolated tornado isn’t ruled out. Another strong cold front is forecast to push into the northern/central US Plains and upper Midwest Thursday into Friday, ushering in a reinforcing blast of unseasonably cool air across the region, said the NWS.

– Tariffs cause ‘unprecedented’ disruption to global trade rules… The share of global trade done on WTO terms has fallen to 72% and could fall further, amid the biggest disruption to the international trading system in the past 80 years, the Director-General of the World Trade Organization said. Since US President Donald Trump started imposing higher import tariffs this year on most of the United States’ trading partners, the share of global trade conducted under the WTO’s ‘most favoured nation’ (MFN) terms is down from about 80%, WTO data shows. The principle requires WTO members to treat others equally.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned that world trade could experience the effects of tariffs “later down the line” into 2026 as the recent surge in global commerce…driven by frontloading of goods during the first half of the year…begins to subside.

– CN Rail prepares to ramp up operations… As harvest operations begin across the Canadian Prairies, CN Rail is monitoring the impact of weather on the harvest and working with customers as it prepares to ramp up grain movement. David Przednowek, VP of Grain for CN says with the seasonal decline that they usually see in shipping in summer, they move some of the hopper car fleet into long-term storage, and it’s time to bring them back out and get them ready to roll.

“Harvest has had a hard time getting started with the way the rains have been going through,” said Przednowek. “Cooler, wetter weather in some areas has delayed crop maturity, which could actually benefit crop filling in regions where it matters most.”

This slow start has led to a noticeable dip in grain shipment volumes through August. According to Przednowek, the decline is largely due to historically low carry-in stocks. “The trade and market participants have done a good job drawing those stocks down,” he explained. “Now, it’s all about waiting for harvest to come on to recharge the pipeline. It’s up to the new crop to drive volumes and prime the pump.”

CN Rail is working closely with customers to assess demand signals, but the pace of shipments will depend on the weather and harvest pace. Przednowek notes “It’s been a choppy and slower onset than expected, and it really comes down to crop maturity and harvest conditions.”

He says in the meantime, they are focusing on their strategic approach to asset deployment. “Ideally, you want a steady ramp-up in demand, it makes it easier for everyone,” he said. “When it’s slow like this, you’re just parking trains under the spout at the elevator where you think, and the customer thinks harvest is going to come on so you can fill trains.”

He says as the harvest progresses, CN Rail is poised to respond quickly. “If the weather cooperates, we’ll see a sharper and more severe ramp-up in shipments.”

– Canadian pulse production to rise in 2025-26… Statistics Canada’s first satellite/model-based crop production estimates of the year were released on Aug. 28 and provided a bright outlook for most of the country’s pulse crops. Dry pea production for 2025-26 was projected at 3.408 MMT, compared to 2.997 MMT the previous year. It would be the largest output in three years, as well as exceeding the 5-year average of 2.936 MMT.

Lentil production is set to reach 2.655 MMT, up from 2.431 MMT last year and up from the 5-year average of 2.162 MMT.

Pulses crop markets remain under significant price pressure. Buyers and traders are exercising caution, limiting purchases and closely timing movement as they look for export or domestic opportunities. Green and yellow peas are taking the hardest hit this harvest…yellows now down to $6.50-$7.00/bu Sept-Dec SK/MB/AB…as high as $7.25/bu in southern Alberta.

Lentil prices also continue to weaken notably…red lentil pricing is in the 21 to 22 cents/lbs range delivered Sept-Dec. Large greens are 24 to 25 cents. Many buyers are either pulling bids entirely or offering prices so low that it’s almost a giveaway.

The global green lentil market appears to be moving toward a season of oversupply, with expanding production in key origins adding to carryover stocks. Current indicators suggest that the 2025–26 cycle may leave exporters grappling with excess volumes…and tighter margins. Taken together, Canada, the US, Russia, Turkey, and Kazakhstan are forecast to produce 2 MMT of green lentils in 2025, compared to 1.385 MMT in 2024. When factoring in carryover stocks and imports, the global supply picture only grows heavier.

Demand from key buyer India may be muted in 2025-26. Green lentils are often considered a substitute for pigeon peas, and with India’s pigeon pea crop expected to be decent this year, import demand for lentils could soften.

Meanwhile, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan are expected to continue trading with their traditional buyers in North Africa and South America. Despite steady trade flows, the scale of supply growth across these origins suggests that the market is likely to carry significant stocks into the 2026 marketing year.

Looking ahead, the global lentil market is likely to remain stable-to-bearish over the next 2-3 months, given the scale of production increases and limited new demand drivers. Only unexpected weather disruptions during harvest could alter the supply outlook. Absent that, ample stocks suggest that oversupply pressures will continue to weigh on prices into 2026.

– USDA reports monthly US crush data… USDA yesterday reported the US corn-for-ethanol use for July 2025 at 455.817 million bu versus the trade average at 455.7 million. That compares to an adjusted 446.897 million in June 2025 and 483.87 million in July 2024. The per-day crush for ethanol averaged 14.7 million bu, down from 14.9 million in June.

USDA anticipates corn used for US ethanol to total at 5.47 billion bu in 2024-25 (ended Aug 31), which would be down from 5.478 billion in 2023-24. Ethanol use will likely come up short of that mark as use ran below 2023-24 levels throughout August.

Meantime, the July 2025 US soybean crush totaled 204.758 million bu. The crush was up 7.8 million bu from 196.925 million bu in June 2025 and up 11.484 million from 193.274 million in July 2024. But the crush total came in below the trade average forecast of 208.1 million bu from a Bloomberg poll.

US soy crush so far this crop year (11 months) has consumed 2.245 billion bu vs 2.118 billion last crop year. The balance to the USDA target 2.420 billion bu forecast is 175.0 million bu.

US soyoil stocks totaled 1.874 billion pounds at the end of July. The trade average was 1.917 billion from Bloomberg. Stocks were down from 1.893 billion in June 2025 and down from 2.009 billion in July 2024.

– Russia’s bid to gain access to China’s wheat market stalled... Russia’s efforts to gain access to China’s vast wheat market have stalled due to Beijing’s reluctance to authorize imports of Russian winter wheat, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies.

Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter, and Lut is part of a delegation of officials and business leaders accompanying President Vladimir Putin on a visit to China, where President Xi Jinping hosted a summit of more than 20 leaders from non-Western countries.

After several record years, China and Russia are seeking ways to bolster trade. The two countries signed major energy agreements during Putin’s visit, but Lut acknowledged there had been no progress on wheat. “We are very hopeful because we do not quite understand the rationale for rejecting winter wheat,” Lut was quoted as saying.

– Ukraine imposes 10% oilseed export duty… Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signed a law introducing a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed, the Ukraine parliament’s website shows. In July, the parliament passed a bill imposing the export duty on rapeseed and soybeans, a measure which would hurt small farmers and producers.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 249.07 points lower on Tuesday to settle at 45,295.81, while the S&P 500 dipped 44.72 lower to 6,415.54. Early Wednesday, the September Dow Jones Futures are down 7 points.

US stock index futures are mixed this morning (Dow slightly weaker, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq are higher) after finishing lower yesterday amid tariff uncertainty. European stock markets are higher this morning, bouncing back from steep losses posted yesterday. Asian markets were lower overnight.

TSX futures are edging lower this morning after Canada’s main stock market closed at a fresh record high yesterday, boosted by a gold and oil rally.

The September US Dollar Index is down 0.077 at 98.270. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.51 US cents.

October crude oil futures are down $1.09 at US $64.50/barrel. Oil prices are weaker ahead of a weekend meeting of OPEC+ producers on Sunday, and as new US sanctions on a network of shipping companies and vessels involved in Iranian oil exports raised supply concerns.

Eight members of the OPEC+ will consider further raising oil production at a meeting on Sunday, as the group seeks to regain market share.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 3 to 4 cents/bu lower to start this morning. Bean futures posted losses of 9 to 13 cents across most contracts on Tuesday. Soymeal futures are down less than $1/ton this morning after losing
$3 to $8/ton yesterday in the front months. Soyoil futures are down 44 to 55 points this morning, giving back Tuesday’s 41 to 56 point gains.

Nov bean futures are down 3.5 cents early Wednesday at $10.37/bu…suggestive the August rebound bounce has exhausted itself. Outside of a weather threat to US production, fundamentally, the bears are regaining control the market.

It’s no secret the market awaits a trade deal between the US and China…which currently seems no where in sight. China, the top global soybean importer, continues to avoid US new-crop purchases. This situation has significantly widened soybean cash basis levels in the US.

Chicago corn futures are down 2 to 3 cents this morning. The corn market saw some late day strength on Tuesday, closing with gains of 2 to 5 cents across most nearbys.

Dec corn futures are trending 3.5 cents lower this morning at $4.19/bu, though still trading above its 20-day ($4.07) and 50-day ($4.14) moving averages…maintaining at least the short-term rebound uptrend. Traders will watch the 100-day average near $4.31, which the Dec contract has not touched since late May.

After Tuesday’s close, the USDA crop progress report rated the US corn crop at 69% good or excellent condition, down two points from a week earlier. There have been reports of widespread southern rust in cornfields, which creates additional uncertainty as the crop enters its final development stages.

US corn harvesting will be in full swing by mid-October, which suggests increased commercial hedging pressure as corn comes from the field and into the commercial pipeline. That could limit the price upside for the corn market until harvest starts to wind down in November.

Old crop marketing year US corn exports up to Aug 28…end of the 2024-25 year…totaled 66.966 MMT, which is 28.61% above the same period last year.

US wheat markets are mixed this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are slipping another 1 to 2 cents lower to fresh contract lows, HRW is steady to fractionally higher and SRW wheat is down a penny. The wheat complex finished lower on Tuesday…spring wheat closing 5 to 6 cents lower. Wheat markets remain mired in price downtrends that continue to invite speculators to the short sides of the futures markets.

European wheat futures have also been a dog…hitting fresh contract lows this week as rising expectations for global supply raised the prospect of stiff export competition. A further decline in Russian export prices last week, amid accelerating arrivals of the new crop, coupled with rising estimates for Russian exports have weighed on sentiment.

Tuesday’s weekly USDA crop progress report indicated 72% of the US spring wheat crop was harvested by Sunday, 1 percentage point above normal.

If grasping for something bullish to say…the coming weeks are likely to see less commercial hedge selling pressure in the wheat futures markets. The US HRW crop harvest is virtually complete. North America’s spring wheat harvest will be wrapped up in a couple of weeks…hopefully opening the door to even a modest seasonal spring wheat price bounce in the late September into October timeframe.

Also worth noting…barring a significant wheat futures market rally in the coming months, 2025-26 US winter wheat planted acres could be significantly reduced compared to this year. Fall plantings may decline due to the current lower prices.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures finished higher for the first time in six sessions on Tuesday, with general strength in world vegoils helping to boost the market. Chicago soyoil closed higher on the day, despite losses in soybeans and soymeal. European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were higher yesterday, along with crude oil. Reports indicated that slow Prairie harvest progress was a source of support as well.

Friday’s Alberta crop report pegged the overall harvest of major crops in that province (spring wheat, oats, barley, canola, and peas) at about 8% complete as of last Tuesday (Aug 26), up 6 points from a week earlier although still behind the five- and 10-year averages of 15% and 12%, respectively. Canola was reported at less than 1% harvested.

November canola gained $3.90 on Tuesday to close at $630.30/tonne, and January was $4 higher at $642.30.

For today… canola futures are posting $8/tonne losses this morning, giving back yesterday’s brief bounce and resuming the steep 2-month downtrend. Nov canola futures are down $8.50 this morning at $621.80/tonne…in a freefall off the June 23 high ($744). Brutal!

Not only has Nov crash below all its key moving averages, but the 20-day average has already plunged below the 50- and 100-day averages…now threatening to cross below the 200-day. No clear signal technically of a bottom at this time, though oversold conditions have certainly developed. But without a near-term rebound…first above $650 (200-day average) and preferably $676.70 (Aug 25 high), further downside might be expected with next level chart support levels come in at $614.60, $601.70 and $580.40.

Demand remains scale-down buying in nature…not much reason for commercials to pay up until we get through harvest. There is obvious concern about the sorry state of a new crop canola export sales program given China’s 76% tariff on Canadian canola. The demand outlook is diminished. And the expected large Canadian harvest now really getting under way is certainly pressing canola pricing lower.

Makes one contemplate taking some form of paper canola re-ownership strategy (futures/options) on any off-combine cash sales that need to be made for near-term cash flow and lack of crop storage reasons that would allow growers to take advantage of any late year or post-harvest rebound rally.

No canola friends this morning…CBOT soy complex, EU rapeseed, Malaysian palm oil and crude oil…all weaker right now.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/