AM Market Report – September 25, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are up for a third consecutive session…adding another $3 to $5/tonne to recent rebound (corrective) gains (deferreds leading). Chicago soybean futures are rising 3 to 6 cents/bu this morning, with the products (oil/meal) also slightly higher. Like in canola, bean futures are seeing some short-covering following recent losses. But bean bulls are worried that a bear flag or pennant pattern may be forming on the daily chart for November beans…suggesting more price downside may be ahead.

CBOT corn futures are seeing gains of 2 to 3 cents right now. Corn market bulls continue to keep a short-term uptrend drive alive, suggesting the path of least resistance for prices remains sideways to higher.

Front-end US winter wheat futures are trading 4 to 5 cents higher, while spring wheat futures are 1 to 4 cents higher after recent flirtations with fresh contract lows.

Grain prices generally continue to feel pressure by harvest activity, favorable Brazilian planting weather, weak technicals, and limited bullish news…especially on China’s soybean and canola trade.

In Other News

– Canada and Indonesia sign trade, defence agreements… Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has signed new agreements on trade and defence cooperation with Prime Minister Mark Carney on Parliament Hill, reports CP. The trade deal is comprehensive, meaning it opens up trade in multiple industries with the world’s fourth most populous country. Carney said the agreement is the first-ever bilateral trade pact signed with a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). “Once it’s fully implemented, it means that over 95% of the tariffs on Canada’s current exports to Indonesia (such as wheat, potash, wood, and soybeans) will be reduced or eliminated,” he said. “They will all be at preferential rates, making our exports obviously far more competitive.” Indonesia is one of the world’s largest wheat importers.

– Argentina reapplies export taxes on grains and by-products… Argentina has reapplied temporarily suspended export taxes on grains and their by-products, as well as beef and poultry, after reaching a sales cap of $7 billion, Argentina’s ARCA fiscal agency said on Wednesday in a post on social media. It was only on Monday, the government issued a decree suspending export taxes on soy, corn, wheat and their by-products, including biodiesel, aiming to accelerate sales abroad and secure much-needed US dollars to stabilize the flagging peso currency.

Argentina, one of the world’s top grains suppliers, relies on the agricultural sector to generate foreign currency. The suspension was set to last through the end of October, or until declared exports reached $7 billion. Exports reached the sales limit after only two days, including now 35 cargoes of soybeans (2.27 MMT) contracted in that very short timeframe.

– China signals that purchases of US soybeans hinge on tariff removal... The United States should remove what China described as unreasonable tariffs and create conditions to expand bilateral trade, a Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson said on Thursday when asked if China would purchase US soybeans. China, the world’s biggest buyer of soybeans, has yet to book any US soybean cargoes from its autumn harvest, traders have said, opting for South American supply instead.

US farmers stand to miss out on billions of dollars of soybean sales because of unresolved trade tensions that have halted exports to China. Senior Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang on Monday met political and business leaders from the US Midwest, signalling that the world’s second-largest economy could purchase some American soybeans ahead of more wide-ranging trade talks. However, disagreement on technical details appears to be complicating negotiations, with Chinese and US trade officials set to meet again at the US Treasury on Thursday.

– India now the largest rapeseed meal supplier to China… India has become the largest supplier of rapeseed meal to China, as prohibitive tariffs have effectively shut Canadian exports out of the market, according to the USDA’s September Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade report. China imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties of nearly 76% on Canadian canola seed imports in August, following earlier 100% tariffs in March 2025 on canola meal and oil. With tariffs now covering all Canadian canola products, Chinese buyers have been forced to turn elsewhere to secure supplies for their feed industry.

Since March, India has stepped into the gap, quickly becoming China’s leading source of rapeseed meal. The shift has been supported by weaker domestic demand in India, where livestock feeders are using more dried distillers grains as the country raises its ethanol blend rate.

China’s imports of rapeseed meal in 2025-26 are now expected to reach 2.6 MMT, about 400,000 tons higher than earlier forecast, but still at a three-year low. Even with India’s expanded role, the loss of Canadian supplies has left China facing tighter availability.

The outlook for canola/rapeseed imports is also constrained. Tariffs on Canadian canola, combined with the absence of Australian product since 2020 due to blackleg disease concerns, mean China’s overall canola imports in 2025-26 are forecast at just 4.1 MMT. That represents a downgrade of 700,000 tonnes from earlier expectations and marks a four-year low, the report said.

– Former Russian agriculture official blames weather, high fuel costs for slow sowing... High costs of diesel and dry weather have slowed Russia’s winter wheat sowing campaign with only half of all fields seeded to date and the time window rapidly closing, a former senior agriculture official was quoted as saying on Wednesday. Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter but the agriculture sector, which has been booming in recent years despite Western sanctions, was hit this year by bad weather, high interest rates, rising export taxes and high fuel and fertilizer costs.

“The soil is very hard, like stone, there’s no rain, and many are unlikely to sow,” Pyotr Chekmaryov, a former senior Ministry of Agriculture official who now oversees agriculture policy at Russia’s trade chamber, was quoted by Interfax as saying. “Unfortunately, they may not even sow at all, because today fuel and lubricants, diesel in particular, have reached around 80,000 roubles per ton, and even then it’s very hard to buy,” Chekmaryov said. Domestic wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel in Russia have increased by around 40% this year as a result of a production decline due to constant attacks by Ukrainian drones on refineries.

Chekmaryov said that only 7.5 million hectares out of 17 million allocated for winter wheat have been seeded. “Next year’s grain farming so far bodes nothing good for us,” Chekmaryov was quoted as saying.

– Drought, frost kill sunflower crop in Ukraine… Spring frost combined with summer drought have destroyed hundreds of thousands of hectares of sunflowers in southern and eastern Ukrainian regions, reducing the harvest, deputy economy minister Taras Vysotskiy said. He gave no exact forecast for the harvest, while analyst APK-Inform last week cut its sunflower seed harvest forecast for the second time this month to 12.9 MMT from the previous 13.6 MMT. APK-Inform said the 2025 sunseed production could be one of the lowest in the last 10 years.

– US ethanol production dips as plants prep for new corn crop… US ethanol production last week fell to its lowest level since early May. That’s at least partially due to seasonal maintenance as facilities prepare to process the newly harvested 2025 corn crop. The US Energy Information Administration says ethanol production averaged 1.024 million barrels per day, down 31,000 on the week, but up 30,000 on the year because of rising demand expectations.

Iowa State University’s Center for Agricultural and Rural Development says the estimated operating margin for the average Iowa plant remains firmly in positive territory. US ethanol stocks of 23.468 million barrels were 866,000 larger than the previous week, but 56,000 below this time last year.

– Brazil’s CADE sets date for key vote on soy moratorium appeal… Brazilian antitrust agency CADE’s tribunal will begin to review an appeal made by oilseeds lobby Abiove and grain traders, including Cargill and Bunge, against a measure ordering the companies to suspend enforcement of the soy moratorium program. According to a notice published in the official gazette on Wednesday, the six commissioners on CADE’s tribunal will start voting on the appeal on September 30. The fate of the moratorium, a 20-year-old corporate pact credited with slowing soy-driven deforestation in the Amazon rainforest, is hanging in the balance as government agencies clash over its legality, heightening risks for global grain traders in the world’s top soybean producer and exporter. The voluntary program, which bars some 30 firms from buying soybeans from farmers who cleared land in the Amazon after July 2008, also represents a potential breach of Brazilian competition law.

Last month, CADE General Superintendent Alexandre Barreto de Souza gave grain traders an order to suspend the moratorium or face hefty fines. The suspension was welcomed by farm groups, including Aprosoja Mato Grosso, who say the corporate agreement is unfair and keeps some farmers out of the market. The general superintendent’s decision, however, was criticized by grain trader lobbies, environmental groups like Greenpeace and Brazil’s environment ministry.

– Has the Canadian economy dodged a recession?… Against the odds, Canada appears to have dodged an outright recession. But that doesn’t mean the economy isn’t hurting.

To be clear, the Canadian economy has contracted; in the second quarter, our GDP fell by 1.6% on an annualized basis. But a recession is typically defined as when an economy contracts in back-to-back quarters. The latest GDP figures, set to be released Friday, will have data for two of the three months that make up the third quarter. And so far, economists believe July and August will show growth.

Meagre as though it may be, that growth is a result of sweeping exemptions from US tariffs. The majority of our exports remain tariff-free. Meanwhile, manufacturing sales, wholesale trade, and car and truck production were all up over the summer. Even the housing market is showing signs of life. That means we’re in a better position than many assumed we would be when the trade war began…though CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld points out this is only “so far.”

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 171.50 points on Wednesday to settle at 46,121.28m while the S&P 500 was down 18.95 points to 6,637.97. Early Thursday, the December Dow Jones futures are down another 131 points.

Global stocks markets appear to be taking a breather ahead of a raft of appearances from US Federal Reserve officials that traders hope will offer greater clarity on how far and fast US interest rates will drop.

Wall Street futures are weaker this morning after major North American markets closed down yesterday amid valuation concerns. Futures linked to Canada’s main TSX stock index are subdued on Thursday, after the index pulled back from recent record highs and investors took a breather as the end of the quarter approached.? However, Canada’s benchmark stock index was still on track for a 10.8% gain for the third quarter, which would be its fifth straight quarterly advance.

Charles Schwab’s UK Managing Director Richard Flynn said investors have had a warning shot this week about equity market valuations from Fed chair Jerome Powell, who described them “fairly highly valued.”

“For retail investors there are a few more reasons to be concerned about equities at the moment than be confident,” Flynn said, adding that the sharp rise in share prices in recent years has left many with risk profiles more exposed than normal.

The December US Dollar Index is up 0.332 at 97.850. The Canadian dollar is down a little against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.96 US cents.

Nov crude oil futures are down $0.46 at $64.53/barrel. Oil prices weakened as some investors took profits after US stocks closed lower and in anticipation of slower winter demand as well as the return of Kurdish supplies. Oil futures gained yesterday to reach a seven-week high, driven by a surprise drop in US weekly crude inventories and concerns that Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure could disrupt supplies.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 3 to 6 cents/bu higher this morning. Bean futures closed out Wednesday with losses of 1 to 3 cents across the board, pulling off the early session gains. Nov bean futures are up 6 cents early Thursday at $10.15/bu…suspended sort of midrange of a broad multi-month range.

Soymeal futures are up $1/ton or less this morning after slipping $1 to $3 yesterday. Soyoil futures are 17 to 39 points higher this morning after tipping a modest 1 to 6 points lower on Wednesday.

Soy futures are getting some support this morning on news Argentina had suddenly overnight re-instated export taxes on all ag products (including soy)…export taxes which were only just eliminated on Monday…due to hitting the $7 billion target in exports within the first couple days.

Meanwhile, a Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson urged the US to eliminate “unreasonable tariffs” when asked on the lack of soybean purchases from the US. The big bearish issue hanging over the US soybean market remains the lack of demand from China.

USDA this morning reported US soybean export sales for the latest week ended Sept 18 totaled 724,500 tonnes…nearer the lower end of trade expectations which ranged between 0.6 and 1.6 MMT.

The US soy harvest and South American planting are ongoing.

Chicago corn futures are posting 2 to 3 cent gains this morning…continuing a steady rise since posting lows in first half August. The corn market tipped 1 to 2 cents lower yesterday across most contracts.

USDA this morning reported US corn export sales for the latest week ended Sept 18 totaled a robust 1.923 MMT…clearing even the highest of trade guesses which ranged between 1.0 and 1.8 MMT.

EIA data from Wednesday morning showed total of 1.024 million barrels per day of US ethanol production in the week of Sept 19, a drop of 31,000 bpd in that week. Despite the drop in output, stocks were building by 866,000 barrels to 23.468 million barrels.

Traders are expecting mixed, but mostly good US harvest progress this week, while South American corn planting weather generally looks favorable.

US wheat markets are also higher this morning…Minnie spring wheat futures are up 1 to 4 cents, HRW 5 cents higher and SRW wheat gaining 4 to 5 cents. The wheat market was mostly in retreat mode late on Wednesday…winter wheats down 1 to 4 cents and spring wheat finishing off the session highs and near unchanged in the nearbys to a penny higher in the deferreds.

Traders are monitoring US winter wheat planting and the very tail end of this year’s North American spring wheat harvest, along with development conditions in Argentina and Australia. The USDA’s small grains summary out Tuesday, (Sept 30) will have an updated look at US domestic wheat production.

USDA this morning reported US wheat export sales for the latest week ended Sept 18 totaled a 539,800 tonnes…solidly within the range of trade expectations of between 300,000 and 600,000 tonnes.

Russia’s wheat crop is estimated at 87.5 MMT according to the latest estimate from IKAR, up 0.5 MMT from the previous number.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures settled little changed on Wednesday. Declines in the Canadian dollar were supportive for canola, along with gains in European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil. However, Chicago soyoil and soybean futures both eased slightly.

Tuesday’s Manitoba crop report said the harvest in that province advanced just 6 points from the previous week to reach 56% complete as of Sunday. Extensive rainfall was a major factor in the slow progress, with road washouts and flooding reported in some parts of the province. However, mostly warm and sunny conditions are in the forecast for much of the Prairies for the remainder of this week, which should help to accelerate fieldwork.

November canola added 50 cents yesterday to close at $618.10/tonne, and January was up 20 cents at $631.30.

For today… canola futures are trading $3 to $5/tonne higher this morning…a third consecutive day of rebound gains off Monday’s lows…though the summer downtrend drawn off the June highs remains intact. Nov canola futures are up $3.90 this morning at $622.00/tonne.

There is some trader technical talk of bottoming action now developing on canola price charts. Possibly…but seems premature to draw such a conclusion at this time. I still have a concern that slower than normal harvest-time farmer deliveries so far will start picking up soon…at a time when China export business is lacking.

Canadian Grain Commission data notes that cumulative producer deliveries of canola at 1.36 MMT as of Sept 14 are down relative to 2.07 MMT brought into the same week a year ago.

Meantime, there seems no quick fix in the works in resolving trade issues with China. China continues to enforce its 75.6% tariff on imports of Canadian canola seed, along with 100% levies on the canola oil and the meal. But a sliver of encouraging news this week on reports Prime Minister Mark Carney engaged in some “hallway diplomacy” with Chinese Premier Li Qiang at the United Nations. Their chat included a number for trade items, including canola, and an eventual meeting between Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Related outside market action…higher CBOT soy complex futures trade this morning is lending some support to our canola market. EU rapeseed futures are also slightly higher. Malaysian palm oil popped higher overnight…in fact gapped up…on data showing exports for the first part of the month were strong.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/