AM Market Report – September 23, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

After dipping to its lowest level in more than 5 months yesterday, ICE canola futures are posting some shaky corrective gains overnight…though this morning fading back to only steady to less than $1/tonne higher on the front month contracts. Hardly a bounce with conviction.

Chicago soybeans are trading 3 to 4 cents/bu lower, with the products also softer again. Bean traders are still digesting bearish news out of Argentina, whereby the Argentine government has temporarily lifted taxes on its grain exports, which triggered a wave of Chinese soybean purchases.

Key factors weighing on both oilseeds…seasonal harvest pressure is compounded by weak Chinese demand, trade tariff uncertainty, and US biofuel market instability due to EPA rule proposals.

CBOT corn futures are narrowly mixed this morning. Corn bulls are losing momentum and need to show price strength very soon to keep alive its 6-week uptrend.

US wheat markets are slightly higher… Minnie spring wheat futures are fractionally to 3 cents higher, while the winter wheats are steady to a penny higher, though still at/near contract lows. Reports of plentiful global supply continues to pressure wheat markets.

Corn and wheat losses are being limited by solid demand.

The USDA yesterday reported that 11% of US corn was harvested as of Sunday, matching the five-year average, with 91% dented, 56% mature, and 66% of the crop rated good to excellent, down 1% on the week. 9% of US soybeans are harvested, also even with the average pace, while 81% of the crop is dropping leaves and 61% of the crop is called good to excellent, 2% lower.

20% of US winter wheat is planted, compared to 23% normally this time of year, and 4% has emerged. 96% of US spring wheat is harvested, equal to the typical rate.

In Other News

– Russian wheat export prices rise… Russian wheat export prices rose last week in response to news of a large Iranian purchase and against a backdrop of limited supply, as bad weather at ports hampered shipments. The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the second half of October was US $228/tonne at the end of last week, up $3 from the previous week, said the IKAR consultancy.

The SovEcon consultancy estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content at $228-$229/tonne FOB, compared to $226-$228 at the end of the previous week. “Support for Russian wheat still comes from limited supply, especially in the south, plus a stronger rouble and higher export tax,” the agency said in a weekly note. “Despite higher prices, Russian sales seem firm…lineup and outstanding export sales rose sharply this week.”

– Canadian durum samples show damage from wet weather… Canada’s durum crop has been damaged from rainy, damp conditions, with some farmers holding off on harvesting crops in the hopes of drier weather, according to the Canadian Grain Commission. Mildew and sprouting damage has appeared in some early crop samples arriving at the CGC, inspectors said Friday.

CGC grain inspector Chris Fleury said that durum wheat appears to be particularly affected by the wet conditions. Sprouting in durum wheat kernels lowers the quality of the grain for pasta and couscous makers, who are major customers in North America, Italy and North Africa. Mildew can also lower quality.

More than half of the world’s durum exports come from Canada. Statistics Canada on September 17 predicted a Canadian durum crop of 6.53 MMT, which would be the largest since the 6.57 MMT crop in 2020.

– Argentina suspends agro-export taxes… Argentina’s government on Monday temporarily eliminated export taxes on grains and their by-products, as well as on beef and poultry, in a bid to speed up sales abroad and rake in much-needed US dollars to prop up the flagging peso currency. Just over a month ahead of congressional elections, President Javier Milei’s government has faced setbacks in the legislature which have caused nervous investors to turn to the safe-haven US dollar and forced the central bank to dip into its dwindling reserves.

The decree published Monday suspends export taxes on soy, corn, wheat and their by-products, including biodiesel. It will last through the end of October, or until declared exports reach $7 billion. This significantly eases the tax burden for exports from the key sector, from a prior level of 26% on soybeans, 24.5% on soyoil and meal and 9.5% on corn. Argentina is one of the world’s top grains suppliers, and the sector is key to funneling in foreign currency. Presidential spokesperson Manuel Adorni later said that beef and poultry exports would also be tax-exempt through the end of October.

Immediately in response, Chinese buyers booked at least 10 cargoes of Argentine soybeans following the announcement, dealing another setback to US farmers already shut out of their top market (China) and hit by low prices. Argentina’s temporary tax move boosts the competitiveness of its soybeans, prompting traders to secure cargoes for fourth-quarter inventories in China, a period usually dominated by US shipments, but now clouded by Trump’s trade war with Beijing.

– Crop consultant trims US corn, soybean yield forecasts… Noted crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has lowered his average 2025 US corn yield forecast by 2.0 bu this week to 182.0 bu/acre with a neutral-to-lower bias. The weekly USDA crop progress report showed the condition of the US corn crop declined 1% this week to 66% rated good/excellent. This is the fourth week in a row that the condition has declined. “Early corn yields are generally disappointing, which could be an indication that southern rust has caused more problems than originally anticipated.”

Cordonnier also lowered his 2025 US soybean yield by 0.5 bu this week to 52.0 bu/acre with a neutral-to-lower bias. USDA Monday afternoon reported the condition of the 2025 US soybean crop declined 2% this week, to 61% rated good/excellent. “For the soybean crop, the dryer conditions in the eastern and southern locations are a concern, especially now with warmer temperatures. These conditions should force the soybeans to mature quickly,” said Cordonnier.

– Pork trade mission heads for Japan… Canadian pork industry members are headed to Japan on a trade mission this week as Canada supplants the US as Japan’s top pork supplier. “We are proud of the relationship our two countries have built over the years, and we are committed to further expanding and strengthening Canadian pork’s partnership with Japanese retailers and consumers,” said Canadian Pork Council chair Rene Roy. Canadian pork is the top imported pork in Japan for the first time in 40 years, the council said.

– NCBA responds to northward moving cattle threat… National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) CEO Colin Woodall on Monday responded to the announcement from the USDA that a new case of New World screwworm has been detected in the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon, less than 70 miles from the US-Mexico border.

“It is extremely concerning for the American cattle industry that New World screwworm has moved so far north in Mexico and now is just 70 miles from the border. The speed that screwworm has moved through Mexico is a reminder that this pest poses a critical and urgent threat to America’s cattle producers,” said Woodall.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 66.27 points higher on Monday to settle at 46,381.54, while the S&P 500 edged up 29.39 points to 6,693.75. Early Tuesday, the December Dow Jones Futures are up 50 points.

Global stock markets are moderately higher this morning, fuelled by AI optimism luring money into technology stocks and bets on US interest rate cuts. Wall Street futures are mixed to slightly higher after US markets were buoyed yesterday by Nvidia’s announcement it will invest up to US $100 billion in OpenAI, owner of the artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT.

TSX futures are pointed higher with Canada’s main stock market on the verge of hitting 30,000 for the first time.

The December US Dollar Index is down 0.055 at 96.920. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.42 US cents.

Nov crude oil futures are up $0.79 at US $63.07/barrel. Oil prices are up even as investors weighed the global supply outlook after Iraq and Kurdish regional governments reached a preliminary agreement to restart an oil pipeline.

“Supportive elements are still low OECD oil inventories,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. “On the other hand, higher crude exports from OPEC+ are a headwind for prices as well as the lack of new sanctions targeting Russian oil exports.”

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 3 to 4 cents/bu lower this morning…down for a fifth consecutive session and a six-week low. Bean futures closed out Monday’s session falling 13 to 14 cents.

Soymeal futures are down $2 to $3/ton this morning after losing 70 cents to $4 across the board on Monday. Soyoil futures are slipping a modest 2 to 11 points right now on most contracts after finishing 45 to 93 points lower yesterday.

On Monday, the soybean market was pressured by reports that Argentina would suspend its grain export tax through October. This news triggered a risk-off price reaction. Argentina, the world’s largest exporter of soymeal and oil, might offer more competitive prices due to an inexpensive currency and fewer trade restrictions. That, combined with the lack of any positive US ag trade news in last week’s phone call between President Trump and President Xi, pressured contracts throughout the session.

This adds to the bearish demand concerns in the market, especially after the EPA ruling that it will consider reallocating US Renewable Fuel Standard obligations from 0% to 100%.

USDA crop progress data showed US soybean crop condition continuing to decline, down 2 points to 61% good/excellent.

Chicago corn future are narrowly mixed this morning. On Monday, the corn market came up off its session lows, but still ended 1 to 2 cents lower across the nearbys. Dec corn is up less than a penny this morning at $4.22/bu, holding above chart support drawn across the $4.10-$4.15 range.

USDA yesterday reported US corn crop conditions slipped back by 1% to 66% good/excellent.

Meanwhile, planting weather in South America generally looks favorable. AgRural reports about 25% of Brazil’s first 2025/26 corn crop has been planted in central and southern growing areas.

US wheat markets are trying to tick higher this morning…spring wheat futures are fractionally to 3 cents higher, while the winter wheats are steady to a penny higher. The US wheat complex continued to slide lower on Monday, with the three exchanges posted losses…spring wheat futures ending the day 2 to 4 cents lower.

Demand for wheat appears strong, but the bears surround this market amid abundant near-term supply. For instance, Argentina is removing its 9.5% wheat export tax, while Russia, Canada, Australia, and Argentina could all have larger crops this year.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures were weaker on Monday, as a sell-off in the Chicago soy complex spilled over to weigh on prices. Seasonal harvest pressure and a lack of significant export demand contributed to the declines.

Canadian canola exports through the first six weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year has totaled only 575,000 tonnes, well down from the 1.45 MMT shipped out by the same time a year ago, according to Canadian Grain Commission data.

November canola futures finished Monday down $8.20 at $610.40/tonne, while the Jan contract also shed $8.20 to close at $623.30/tonne.

For today… canola futures were trying to post modest corrective gains overnight, but a weakening CBOT soy complex is again trying to drag the canola market down…currently less than $1/tonne higher on the front month contracts. Canola futures are testing around 5 month lows…something we saw tested earlier this month before a short bounce higher ensued. The support line right here needs to hold…otherwise the March lows below $600/tonne on the Nov contract comes into the conversation.

No friends in the related outside markets unfortunately…CBOT soy complex, EU rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil markets are all weaker this morning.

Trump policy on commitment to US biofuel production again appears on shaky ground with the US Environmental Protection Agency admitting Monday that the blending mandate decision for 2026 will likely be delayed until the New Year due to the fighting over the reallocation proposals for small refinery exemptions, both potentially reducing biofuel demand. That’s plunged soyoil futures below 50 cents/lbs…not price friendly for our canola.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/