AM Market Report – September 17, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are continuing the pattern of recent days…up one day, down the next. Futures are $3 to $4/tonne lower this morning.

Chicago soybean futures are edging a penny higher to start this morning. Beans are in a trading range, but the bulls have a bit of momentum on their side. However, bean bulls need meal market bulls to step up and produce price strength.

CBOT corn futures are narrowly mixed but leaning fractionally higher. Solid demand and growing uncertainty about the size of the US crop has supported prices. Corn market bulls are keeping alive a price uptrend on daily charts, which means the path of least resistance for prices remains sideways to higher.

US wheat markets are narrowly mixed after showing modest gains of late to move futures up off contract lows. Competitive pricing from US suppliers and delays in shipments from the Black Sea have prompted Asian flour millers to ramp up imports of US wheat. More lift in wheat prices this week would suggest near-term market bottoms are in place.

US corn/soybean harvest progress is holding pace with multi-year averages, rain is falling for South America’s planting season, and US and Chinese trade talks have not yet developed anything concrete in the way of soybean sales.

In Other News

– StatCan Production Report… Statistics Canada, in joint effort with Agriculture Canada, this morning update its production estimates using “remote satellite sensing, survey and agroclimatic data sources” compared to the Aug. 28 estimate that was “using modeling, administrative data and other non-traditional survey-based approaches.”

Results out this morning… In 2025, Canadian farmers are projected to produce more wheat, canola, corn for grain, barley, and oats but less soybeans, compared with 2024.

Yield estimates based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicate that plant health in Western Canada varied as of August 31. In areas that received sufficient precipitation and warm temperatures, crop conditions were considered higher to much higher than normal. In drier areas, crop conditions varied from similar to lower when compared with historical averages. In parts of the Prairies, the NDVI improved in Western Canada throughout the month of August, possibly the result of warm temperatures coupled with increased precipitation.

The following is a quick summary of the Statistics Canada September model-based principal field crop production estimates for 2025-26. Previous numbers and the five-year average are included for comparison. Production in million metric tonnes. Source: Statistics Canada.

2025-26 2025-26 2024-25 5-year

SEP AUG Average

Durum 6.535 6.078 6.380 5.204

All wheat 36.624 35.545 35.939 32.418

Oats 3.370 3.393 3.358 3.740

Barley 8.228 7.991 8.144 8.952

Canola 20.028 19.937 19.239 18.257

Flaxseed 0.365 0.328 0.258 0.384

Peas 3.563 3.408 2.997 3.174

Lentils 2.972 2.655 2.431 2.205

Corn 15.500 15.553 15.345 14.696

Soybeans 7.134 7.016 7.568 6.735

Wheat

Nationally, Canadian wheat production is projected to increase 1.9% year over year to 36.6 MMT in 2025, and up 1.076 MMT from StatCan’s previous report at the end of August, largely attributable to higher anticipated yields, which are expected to rise by 1.8% to 51.1 bu/acre. Harvested area is expected to remain steady, edging up by 0.1% to 26.3 million acres.

The increase in expected total wheat production is attributable to spring wheat, which is anticipated to edge up 0.3% to 26.6 MMT, which is up 616,000 tonnes from the August forecast. The increase is a result of higher yields, which are anticipated to rise by 1.9% to 53.1 bu/acre, while projected harvested area is expected to fall by 1.5% to 18.4 million acres.

Durum wheat yields are expected to rise 1.9% to 37.7 bu/acre, while higher harvested area is expected to edge up 0.4% to 6.4 million acres, contributing to a 2.4% increase in durum wheat production to 6.5 MMT, which is up 457,000 tonnes from August.

Canola

Nationally, canola production is expected to increase by 4.1% to 20.0 MMT in 2025, and up a modest 91,000 tonnes from StatCan’s end of August forecast. The anticipated increase in production was driven by higher yield, which is expected to rise by 6.2% to 41.2 bu/acre, offsetting lower harvested area, which is projected to decrease by 2.0% to 21.4 million acres.

Soybeans

Nationally, soybean production is projected to decrease by 5.7% year over year to 7.1 MMT in 2025 on lower yields. In Manitoba, soybean production is projected to increase by 2.9% to 1.7 MMT in 2025.

Barley/Oats

Canadian farmers expect to produce 1.0% more barley year over year to 8.2 MMT in 2025…up 237,000 tonnes from StatCan’s end of August report…driven by higher yields, up 8.4% to 68.5 bu/acre. Harvested area is projected to decrease by 6.7% to 5.5 million acres.

Oat production is anticipated to rise by 0.4% to 3.4 MMT, a result of higher yields (+1.6% to 90.1 bu/acre), offsetting lower harvested area (-1.2% to 2.4 million acres) in 2025.

– Canada, US, Mexico begin trade consultations… Canada, the US, and Mexico are set to formally begin consultations ahead of the review of their regional CUSMA trade accord next year. The consultation process will begin today. Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said an evaluation of the trade pact’s results over the past five years will take place between now and the end of the year to prepare for negotiations over a possible extension of the agreement in 2026. The Office of the US Trade Representative, which estimates that the CUSMA covers nearly $2 trillion in goods and services within the region, made a similar announcement in an official notice seeking public comment on the matter. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney last month said his government would also hold industry consultations on the trade agreement this fall, though Canada’s process has not yet formally begun.

– Trump-Xi summit progress bodes well for Boeing, US farmers… That’s the headline of an exclusive South China Morning Post report today. The story says US President Trump “will likely only agree to a China visit if he can announce multibillion-dollar orders, probably for Boeing aircraft and US soybeans.” The report said negotiations between the US and China over a possible state visit by Trump to China are in their final stage, with large-scale purchases of US products…particularly soybeans…emerging as key a element, according to the Post. “There are a few small loose ends. But the major blocks are already resolved. Things are taking shape,” one source told the Post, describing the talks as at a “very advanced stage.”

– EPA seeks comment on options for US biofuel reallocation… The US Environmental Protection Agency issued a proposal for reallocating biofuel blending obligations waived under the Small Refinery Exemption program, offering two primary options of 50% and 100%. Additionally, the agency said it will ask for comment on other potential volumes, such as 25%, 75% or none at all. The proposal’s failure to narrow down potential options is destined to extend the latest clash between US Big Oil and Big Farm over how to deal with waived biofuel blending obligations, as both industries vie for influence over US energy and agricultural policy.

The US Renewable Fuel Standard requires refiners to blend billions of gallons of biofuels into America’s fuel pool each year or buy credits called RINs from those who do. But it also allows smaller refiners to apply for waivers under the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) program if they can show the requirements would cause them financial hardship. The EPA in August cleared a backlog of more than 170 SRE requests dating back to 2016…a sweeping move that required it to come up with the plan to account for waived obligations.

– Australia to launch new biofuel industry… The Australian government said it would invest A$1.1 billion (US $735 million) in the development of a low-carbon fuels industry, a move welcomed by farm groups, who hope it will boost demand for biofuel feedstocks like canola and sugarcane. The money, to be released over 10 years from 2028, is intended to stimulate private investment in products like biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel.

Australia is a major producer of crops such as canola, sugarcane, sorghum and tallow, that can be used to make fuel. It currently exports the vast majority of those goods and imports most of its gasoline. Australian canola is a major feedstock for Europe’s biodiesel industry.

“Thanks to our advanced farming practices and access to cheap and reliable renewable energy, Australia is in an enviable position to produce cleaner, low-carbon liquid fuels that jets, ships, construction machines and heavy trucks need to reach net zero,” the government said in a statement. “This is a down payment on developing an entirely new industry in Australia,” said Finance Minister Jim Chalmers. “It’s about making Australians and our economy big beneficiaries of the global net zero transformation.”

– Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell in August… Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell to 5.3 MMT in August down 16.4% compared to the same month of 2024, according to shipping data from industry sources. Seaborne exports accounted for about 90% of Russia’s total grain exports last season. Total seaborne exports have reached 8.0 MMT in the first two months of the season, 26.6% down year-on-year, according to the data. Exports via Black Sea terminals, which normally account for around 90% of all seaborne grain shipments, fell by 17.6% to 4.9 MMT in August.

Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell by 25.4% in the recently ended 2024-2025 season, which ran from July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025, to around 46 MMT due to the implementation of export quotas in February and lower crop output.

– US lentil, pea, chickpea production forecast sharply higher… US production of lentils, dry edible peas, and chickpeas is expected to surge this year, with increases in acreage, yields, and harvested area combining to push output well above 2024 levels, according to the latest government estimates.

Last Friday’s monthly USDA crop production report estimated 2025 American lentil output at 502,720 tonnes, up 23% from last year. If realized, both harvested area and production will set record highs for the US. For dry edible peas, US production is forecast at 933,310 tonnes, also up 23% from 2024. US chickpea production is expected to rise the most in percentage terms, jumping 32% to 337,020 tonnes.

– Beef cow inventory may have more upside to give prices… The US beef cow inventory has reached its lowest point since 1962, reports Drovers, marking what appears to be the bottom of the current cattle cycle. Tight supply is driving the strong pricing environment beef producers are enjoying today. “For cow-calf producers right now, things are as good as they’ve probably ever been,” says Troy Rowan, University of Tennessee assistant professor. Agreeing with Rowan, South Dakota cattleman Ken Odde adds that while profits are currently strong, inflation quickly erodes economic gains. “The beef industry is not currently in herd expansion mode, with producers hesitant to retain heifers due to high costs and economic uncertainties,” says Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst.

While the USDA reports showed the smallest US herd in history and continuing tightening numbers on feed, analysts predict producers have not experienced the highest cattle prices, yet.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tipped 125.55 points lower on Tuesday to settle at 45,757.90, while the S&P 500 ended down 8.52 points at 6,606.76. Early Wednesday, the September Dow Jones Futures are up 57 points.

Global markets are trading mixed this morning though at/near record highs ahead of a widely anticipated US Federal Reserve interest rate cut later today as well as the Bank of Canada’s policy announcement this morning. Wall Street futures were little changed this morning, while Canada’s TSX stock index futures are pointed lower after major North American markets closed down yesterday.

The December US Dollar Index is up 0.152 at 96.400. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at

October crude oil futures are down $0.20 at US $64.32/barrel. Oil prices eased after rising more than 1% yesterday due to concerns that Russian supplies may be disrupted by Ukrainian attacks. “If the drone damage (to Russian energy infrastructure) proves to be short-lived, the recent range…will resume,” said PVM Oil Associates analyst John Evans. “Given the impasse in sanctions and the arrival of more OPEC barrels, the only hope for an oil rally has been through the lack of distillate stock as we approach winter.”

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading around a penny higher this morning, bumping up from trending slightly weaker through most of the overnight session. Bean futures rounded out Tuesday’s session with contracts up 7 to 8 cents across the front months. Soymeal futures are up $1 to $2/ton this morning. Soyoil futures are down 47 to 60 points, giving back much of yesterday’s 59 to 93 point gains.

While US domestic demand for soybeans is solid, the lack of export demand from China is an ongoing concern, especially as the harvest moves forward and the supply swells.

US President Trump is scheduled for a call on Friday with Xi Jinping from China, and traders are hoping soybeans will be part of the discussion. Without China’s announcement of US purchases and weaker-than-expected yield reports, the soybean market has little to go on.

Price support in recent days was building under the market from soyoil demand prospects. This week’s NOPA crush report showed US bean oil stocks at an eight-month low. Additionally, the EPA announced a co-proposal on Tuesday to reallocate 100% or 50% of small refinery exemptions of renewable fuel volumes for 2023-2025. But there remains some skepticism of EPA’s approach and commitment to reallocating these small refinery exemptions.

Chicago corn futures are showing very modest fractional gains this morning, but are pushing back up to the highs of overnight price action. The corn market held up into the close on Turnaround Tuesday, posting gains of 5 to 6 cents across the front months.

Early US corn harvest reports are coming back with some looking at yields below last year, reflecting the impact of the dry finish for this year’s crop in wide swaths of the Corn Belt. The market will be looking to see if this is a wider trend as the US harvest pushes ahead.

The trade is also watching early planting activity in Argentina and Brazil. Safras e Mercado sees Brazil’s first crop at 24.73 MMT, with total production at a record large 142.49 MMT in 2025/26.

US wheat markets are narrowly mixed this morning…spring wheat futures flat, HRW steady to fractionally weaker, while SRW wheat is fractionally higher. The US wheat complex posted higher trade across the three markets on Tuesday…spring wheat futures up 4 to 5 cents at yesterday’s close.

US winter wheat planting is a little slower than normal, while the US spring wheat harvest is close to wrapping up, while the Canadian Prairie wheat harvest moves rapidly along. Any sustained upside might be limited by the large global supply. Bigger crops in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine are creating a lot of competition on the global market and there are solid production prospects for Argentina and Australia.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures shook off harvest pressure to close higher on Tuesday. Strength in the Chicago soy complex offered support to canola, with soyoil rising for the fifth straight session on ideas of increased demand for biofuel production.

The US Environmental Protection Agency yesterday issued a proposal for reallocating to large refineries the biofuel blending obligations waived under the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) program. But as the session progressed, it was clear EPA continues to waver on its reallocation initiative, which has knocked bean oil back lower this morning.

Advances in crude oil and European rapeseed yesterday supported canola.

November canola yesterday gained $8.50 to close at $640.80/tonne, and January was $7.90 higher at $652.70.

For today… canola futures are down $3 to $4/tonne this morning around the middle of the overnight trading range. Today’s small bump higher in 2025 Canadian canola production forecast by StatCan to 20.028 MMT is not a real market feature, though the market did come up off the overnight lows after the 7:30 am CT release after fearing the number might be bigger.

Nov canola futures are down $4.80 this morning at $636.00/tonne. Since coming up off its summer low posted earlier this morning, Nov canola has struggled to convincingly clear back above its 20-day moving average ($637). It’s become a sticking point in recent days. The 200-day average is also above at $650.

The Prairie harvest continues to roll along without much interruption between Regina and the Rockies, while the eastern Prairies finally look like they’ll get a break after this coming week.

In related outside markets…CBOT soybeans/meal are slightly higher, but soyoil is weaker after 5 up-days. EU rapeseed futures are steady to just slightly weaker. Malaysian palm oil is steady.

Bruce made the comment that last week’s USDA report highlighted some major changes to the global canola/rapeseed situation with increased production and ending stocks projected from the August estimates. Global production increased by 1.4 MMT to 91 MMT. The main increase in canola output came from Canada which was increased by 750,000 tonnes to 20 MMT (same as StatCan this morning). Output was also increased in Australia, Kazakhstan and Russia.

This increase in global supply spilled over into the world ending stocks estimate which rose by 1.51 MMT. This pushed the ending stocks to use ratio (expressed to days of use) to 38.8 days which is the highest since the 2023-24 crop year. The increase in the global ending stocks is due mostly to a 1.34 MMT rise in Canadian ending stocks.