AM Market Report – September 16, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are seeing some rebound price action this morning…currently leaping $10 to $11/tonne higher. Chicago soybeans are up 5 to 6 cents/bu, with rising soyoil leading the way upward…finding some support on better than expected domestic soy crush for August. But gains in both canola and soybeans remain limited by restrained buying interest from China.

Looks like a “Turnaround Tuesday” for canola, soybean and corn futures markets, following Monday’s losses.

CBOT corn futures are up 2 to 3 cents this morning…working to keep alive its recent price uptrend off August lows amid projections for a record large US harvest (16.8 billion bu). Given high levels of crop disease and dry late-summer weather, some market players believe the USDA will lower its production estimates later this autumn. Nonetheless, farmers and brokers are still bracing for a huge harvest.

US winter wheat futures are posting 3 to 6 cent gains, but Minnie spring wheat futures are steady to a penny weaker. Winter wheat bulls are hoping recent price action is “basing” at lower levels that will soon put in market bottoms.

The USDA’s US national crop ratings were mostly lowered over the past week. That’s generally in line with seasonal trends, as conditions tend to dip as harvest advances, along with mostly dry weather in much of the region.

As of Sunday, 67% of the US corn crop was rated good to excellent, down 1% on the week, with 85% dented, 41% mature, and 7% harvested, all at or near the respective five-year averages.

63% of US soybeans are called good to excellent, 1% lower, while 41% are at the leaf dropping stage and 5% are harvested, just ahead of average.

11% of US winter wheat is planted, compared to the usual rate of 13%. 94% of US spring wheat is harvested, compared to 92% in most recent years.

In Other News

– Saskatchewan yield estimates mostly above StatCan… Provincial yield estimates released by the Saskatchewan government suggest the likelihood of bigger than expected 2025 Prairie crops. Except for canola, the province’s major crop yield estimates are universally higher than the projections released last month by Statistics Canada and based on conditions up until the end of July. Large parts of the Prairies were unfavourably dry through July, but better moisture in August provided a significant boost for many crops.

Sask Ag is estimating this year’s average Saskatchewan durum yield at 38 bu/acre, above StatCan’s August forecast of 33.4 bu. At 93 and 71 bu, the average expected oat and barley yields are up from StatCan’s 91 and 61.8 bu, while the average spring wheat yield is seen at about 50 bu, versus 46.6 bu for StatCan.

The average pea yield of 42 bu is more than 7 bu above the StatCan estimate, with lentils, at 1,784 lbs/acre, up from 1,313 lbs. The province’s canary yield estimate of 1,343 lbs/acre is 264 lbs above StatCan, the chickpea estimate is 370 lbs higher at 1,622 lbs, and mustard is 378 lbs higher at 1,141 lbs.

The province sees the average flax yield at 25 bu/acre, compared to 20.5 for StatCan, and the average soybean yield at 40 bu/acre, far above 24.1 bu for StatCan.

On the other hand, Saskatchewan estimated the average canola yield in the province at 39 bu/acre, down slightly from the federal agency’s projection of 40.3 bu.

StatCan will release updated yield estimates on Sept 17, reflecting conditions as of the end of August.

– Vietnamese feed makers buying Canadian canola meal… Feed millers in Vietnam are taking advantage of bargain prices for Canadian canola meal after China curbed purchases by imposing hefty anti-dumping duties earlier this year. Vietnamese millers have been importing around 30,000 tonnes a month of Canadian canola meal, used mainly in animal feed, for the past few months, according to a Reuters report. “The volumes are not huge as compared with what China was buying but shipments are heading to Vietnam,” said a Singapore trader. “We expect more deals in the coming months.”

Vietnamese feed makers were paying US $220/tonne, including cost and freight, for Canadian canola, compared to around $300-$310/tonne paid by Chinese buyers before the duties were imposed in March.

China, the world’s largest importer of canola, imposed preliminary duties of 75.8% on Canadian canola seed imports in August. Earlier, Beijing had imposed a 100% retaliatory tariff on imports of canola meal and oil from Canada, effective March 20.

– August US soybean crush tops estimates… US soybean processors crushed 189.810 million bu in August, above expectations and a record volume for August. The crush was down 3.0% from 195.699 million bu in July, but up 20.1% from the August 2024 crush of 158.008 million bu. The August crush had been expected to fall to 182.857 million bu, according to the average of estimates surveyed by Reuters.

US soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of August 31 dropped to an eight-month low of 1.245 billion pounds, down 9.7% from stocks of 1.379 billion pounds at the end of July, but up 9.4% from the 1.138 billion pounds in stocks a year earlier.

– Canada pea yields coming in stronger than expected… Canada is facing a massive carryout of peas at the end of 2025-26 as harvest expectations grow larger. Late-season rains and a mild summer created ideal growing conditions for the pulse crop in the central and northern portions of the Prairie grain belt. Crop ratings usually drop during the growing season, but this year they just kept improving as the season progressed. Trade ideas suggest Statistics Canada’s initial national average yield estimate of 36.6 bu/acre is understated…might exceed 40 bu/acre. If realized, that could push 2025 Canadian pea output towards 3.75 MMT…3 MMT of yellows, 0.550 MMT of greens and 0.20 MMT of the minor classes. That is in addition to a healthy 489,000 tonnes of carryout from 2024-25…sending overall 2025-26 marketing year beginning stocks over 4.2 MMT.

That could be challenging for the pea market given China levying a 100% import tariff on Canadian peas. And while India does not employ import tariffs on peas, there is talk of reinstating tariffs to support its domestic pulse industry.

These issues, along with normal harvest pressure, is why pea prices have been cratering in recent weeks.

– Asia millers buy more US wheat… Flour millers in Asia have ramped up imports of US wheat in recent weeks, driven by competitive prices from American suppliers and delays in shipments from the Black Sea. Indonesian importers have finalized deals for around 500,000 tonnes, while buyers in Bangladesh secured about 250,000 tonnes and millers in Sri Lanka acquired around 100,000 tonnes, two grain traders said on the sidelines of the event in Jakarta. “Millers are taking both US soft white wheat and hard red winter wheat varieties,” said one regional trader. “There were some weather issues which delayed cargoes from the Black Sea region and US prices have been pretty competitive.” This is additional demand for US wheat in Asia, complementing purchases by traditional buyers such as Thailand, the Philippines and Taiwan, they said.

Southeast Asian nations are expected to increase US grain and oilseed purchases, reshaping trade flows after signing agreements with the Trump administration that have displaced supplies from Australia, Canada and Russia.

– Urgent upgrades needed at the Port of Vancouver… The Grain Growers of Canada (GGC) wants to see two key pieces of infrastructure upgraded at the Port of Vancouver, the country’s largest port. The GGC says the federal government’s major projects list remains incomplete if the 1969 Second Narrows Rail Bridge and 1904 New Westminster Rail Bridge upgrades are not included. The concern is the age and condition of the two bridges, which are currently running at full capacity. According to the GGC, urgent upgrades are needed; if the bridges were to fail, there would be no backup, as there is no other alternative route that can handle the same volume of traffic.

The Port of Vancouver is Canada’s largest port and the country’s most critical trade gateway. More than 50% of the grain grown in Canada is exported through the port.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked 49.23 points higher on Monday to settle at 45,883.45, while the S&P 500 gained 30.99 points to close at 6,615.28. Early Tuesday, the September Dow Jones Futures are down 43 points.

Global stock markets have drifted this morning as investors grow cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated monetary policy verdict tomorrow. Wall Street futures are mixed this morning, with the Dow pointing slightly lower after major US markets closed higher yesterday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes are slightly higher this morning.

Canada’s TSX stock futures were in negative territory ahead of inflation numbers for August, the last data point ahead of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate policy decision tomorrow.

Canadian consumer price index (CPI) for August was released this morning…showing year-over-year inflation in August at 1.9%, coming in just below the trade expectation of 2.0%. Month to month inflation (July to August) dipped a modest 0.1%, while the trade was looking for 0.1% increase. Slightly lower inflation, along with weaker jobs growth amid an overall slowing Canadian economy suggests the BoC will trim its interest rate benchmark tomorrow.

The December US Dollar Index is down 0.365 at 96.535. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.77 US cents.

October crude oil futures are up $0.79 at US $64.09/barrel. Oil prices are higher as markets weighed potential supply disruption from Russia after Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries and the prospect of a US central bank interest rate cut.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 5 to 6 cents/bu higher this morning. Bean futures closed out Monday’s session with contracts down 3 to 4 cents across the front months. Soymeal futures are downless $1/ton this morning after losing $2/ton yesterday. Soyoil futures are rallying mostly 72 to 88 points higher this morning after posting a modest 12 point gain in the front months on Monday.

Nov soybeans are up 6 cents this morning at $10.49/bu. Technically, the next major resistance level for the Nov futures contract is around the $10.60 area (August highs), with support at the 20-day moving average ($10.42).

NOPA data shows a solid 189.81 million bu of soybeans crushed in the US during August, more than 7 million bu above estimates. That was a 3.01% drop from July but still 20.13% larger than last year and 12.93% above the previous August record. US bean oil stocks at the end of the month were 1.245 billion lbs, which was up 9.39% from last year but down 9.7% from July.

Monday morning’s weekly US export inspections report showed a total of 804,352 tonnes of US beans shipped in the week ended Sept 11. The marketing year total (started Sept 1) is now at 1.068 MMT shipped, with is 42.9% above the same short period last year, despite no confirmed China business yet. After two days of trade talks, China has said nothing about US soybean purchases.

Chicago corn futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents higher this morning. The corn market closed out Monday’s session, giving back much of the Friday gains, as contracts were down 6 to 7 cents across the front months.

Dec corn futures are up 3.75 cents this morning at $4.27/bu. Technically, the gap in the Dec corn chart from $4.30 to $4.32 posted in early July is the primary resistance point for the market in the near term. It remains encouraging the corn market has been trending steadily higher since posting its early August low. But corn remains a money loser for growers given high costs of production.

Weekly US export inspections data showed 1.512 MMT of US corn shipped in the week that ended on Sept 11. Marketing year shipments have totaled 2.161 MMT in the week-and-a-half old 2025-26 US marketing season, 5.68% larger yr/yr.

Still lingering bearish concern from Friday’s USDA numbers, with record large US corn yield and production, and another increase in harvested acres. The USDA did cut 2025/26 ending stocks, but the number remains above 2.1 billion bu, which is a lot of corn.

US wheat markets are mixed this morning…3 to 6 cents higher on the winter wheats, but only steady to a penny weaker for spring wheat futures. The wheat market also ended Monday’s session on a mixed note, with spring wheat posted steady to 1 cent gains across the front months…and trying to establish a seasonal bottom.

USDA tallied US wheat export shipments at 775,073 tonnes during the week ending on September 11. That was 80.6% above last week and 31.34% larger than the same week last year. US marketing year exports for 2025/26 are now 7.855 MMT since June 1, which is 12.09% above the same period last year.

The 2026 US winter wheat crop is 11% planted as of Sunday, slightly behind the typical mid-September pace. The US spring wheat crop was 94% harvested, compared to the usual rate of 92%. The Canadian harvest is just over one-third done, so hopefully spring wheat harvest pressure will fade in the coming weeks.

Recent rain has likely boosted prospects for Argentina and Australia, and the market is also grappling with post-harvest export competition from Europe and Russia.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures closed lower on Monday, with the Nov contract settling at $632.30/tonne, down $7.40. The market is facing modest pressure as harvest activity expands across Western Canada. Weather outlooks pointing to mostly favorable conditions and steady supply expectations have weighed on prices, though underlying demand from domestic processors continues to lend support.

Market participants will be closely monitoring yield reports in the weeks ahead, as well as export developments and movements in competing global oilseed markets. These factors could provide fresh direction and set the tone for trading into late September.

For today… canola futures are rebounding $9 to $10/tonne higher this morning, regaining all of Monday’s decline and more. Nov canola is up $10.70 right now at $643.00/tonne, pushing back above its 20 day moving average ($638). MACD and Stochastics chart indicators are turning up off previous oversold signals. The downtrend line drawn off the June highs remains valid, so we can’t feel bullish at this time, but there’s a “feel” of bottoming price action that has already absorbed a lot of bearish news.

StatCan is out tomorrow morning with updated Canadian crop production estimates based on end of August crop conditions. But the real market concern remains Chinese tariffs and slow export business so far this crop year. Overall canola exports to September 7th totaled only 529,500 tonnes, according to the Canadian Grain Commission, which is down by more than half from last year’s pace. Export demand will be the key to the canola market in the next two months…and so far it has not been great.

As the largest buyer of canola seed from Canada, China’s actions to restrict imports of Canadian canola seed, oil, and meal carry undeniable weight in the market, and the long-term market implications may be more complex than they appear at first glance.

With China turning to Australian canola and increasingly sourcing oilseeds from South America, Canadian exporters could be facing a multi-year reshuffling of trade flows to other outlets. It’s happened before, and can be accomplished again, but the commercial trade has its work cut out for it shifting export flow from China to alternate destinations such as sending a bit more to the likes Japan, the EU and the UAE. Also…domestic crush demand will be increasing again this year by 1 MMT or more.

Tough market environment for canola near-term, but oversold conditions suggests we are at/near price bottoms. But better market potential could emerge in the second half of the 2025-26 marketing year. But we’ll need to see further evidence of broader vegoil demand holds, which seems likely. Resolution to the China trade dispute would certainly help matters, but a quick fix seems out of reach for now.

On the feed grains… Prices for feed grains on the Canadian Prairies have started to rebound a little bit. Prices had been feeling the weight of harvest since the second half of August. Now prices for feed barley and wheat were $250/tonne delivered Lethbridge, up from the high $240s. Growers, if they got their grain a bin or bag, might leave it there for a little while.

Feed prices could increase further over the coming weeks, as harvest pressure diminishes on barley and wheat. US corn prices have been trending higher these past few weeks…lifting to 7-week highs.

The combining of barley passed its halfway point in two provinces, with more than three-quarters of the Manitoba crop taken off and over half of Saskatchewan’s. The Alberta harvest was about a third complete.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/