AM Market Report – September 11, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures overnight were adding to yesterday’s corrective rebound gains, but those gains have now faded away in the recent morning hours trade. Canola futures are now starting the day trading $1 to $2/tonne lower.

Chicago soybeans futures are mostly 5 to 6 cents/bu higher this morning…holding near its overnight session highs.

Chicago corn futures are steady to fractionally higher on good demand, with Wednesday’s EIA Petroleum Status Report showing increased US ethanol production for the week ending September 5.

US wheat markets are weaker…losing 1 to 3 cents/bu. Wheat continues to face pressure from ongoing global production and harvest activity. Additionally, US wheat prices at the Gulf are losing competitiveness compared to Russian and European offerings.

Trading across grain markets may be more subdued today, ahead of Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply/demand report.

According to a Reuters survey of analysts, the agency is expected to estimate US corn production at 16.516 billion bu and an average yield of 186.2 bu/acre. That compares to USDA’s August production estimate of 16.742 billion bu and an average yield of 188.8 bu/acre. The average of the analysts surveyed by Reuters shows a US soybean production estimate of 4.271 billion bu and an average yield of 53.3 bu/acre in the September report, compared to the August USDA production estimate of 4.292 billion bu and an average yield of 53.6 bu/acre.

USDA is expected to show a slight decrease in US wheat ending stocks while world wheat stocks are forecast to rise.

In Other News

– Canola growers ask Ottawa to prepare compensation plan, pushes PM to negotiate with China… Canada’s canola industry is staring down a potential $2 billion loss as China’s preliminary anti-dumping tariffs lock Canadian seed out of a crucial export market. While the federal government’s preliminary response package announced Friday promises longer-term consultations, Rick White, president and CEO of the Canadian Canola Growers Association (CCGA), calls the announcement “disappointing.” “We just couldn’t see how this addresses the severity of the situation,” says White.

Farmers’ ideal resolution would be a re-opened market, but that doesn’t seem possible, at least in the immediate term. Meanwhile, White says that the impact of losing access to the Chinese market is already materializing. White calculates a $60/tonne drop in futures prices since China’s August announcement, equating to roughly $1.2 billion in lost canola value. If the gap stretches to $100, losses could reach $2 billion, he says.

In light of this, the Canola Growers are calling on the federal government to deliver a contingency plan that includes compensatory payments for market price slides, as supports announced Friday may already be inadequate to really address the loss of the Chinese market.

Beyond compensation, the CCGA is also pushing for rapid action on domestic biofuel policy. While biofuels could absorb more canola, White cautions that “there’s no making up for China.” The US market is also constrained due to regulatory disadvantages tied to carbon credit calculations that favour its domestic feedstock sources.

White adds that imported used cooking oil (UCO) from China poses a further threat to domestic processing. “We don’t want UCO to come into Canada and displace our domestic market for our own canola,” he says, urging Environment and Climate Change Canada to act quickly on the file.

Federal ag minister Heath MacDonald did single out UCO as a potential drag on the Canadian domestic system in an interview last week, however, White says the timeline on the government’s proposed industry supports can’t be drawn out. “We’re worried there’s going to be a one to one-and-a-half year process. We just don’t have that kind of time. We need to short circuit it. We need to target it, and the government legislation needs to be sped up. Farmers don’t have a year, year and a half to wait for the start of newly created biofuel market here in Canada for the product, we need it now.”

Most critically, CCGA is calling on Prime Minister Mark Carney to meet with President Xi Jinping directly. “The reality is, this is a political problem, and it requires a political answer,” says White.

– Seasonal forecast suggests good fall harvest weather… Fall across Canada is shaping up to be milder and calmer than usual through mid-season, though forecasters warn that November will bring a sharp return to stormier, colder weather in many regions. The Weather Network said in its latest seasonal forecast that much of the country will enjoy extended stretches of pleasant weather from mid-September through October, with fewer than the typical number of fall storms. If accurate, that should allow for relatively smooth harvest progress on both sides of the country.

However, the respite will not last the entire season. A more active and changeable pattern is expected to take hold by November, with Western Canada forecast to be the first to experience the slide into early winter. Meanwhile, most of the country…including all of Western Canada and much of Ontario…is expected to see normal precipitation amounts.

In Alberta, extended periods of warmth are expected through October, punctuated by the province’s characteristic wild swings in temperature. Edmonton and Calgary should both enjoy above-normal conditions, though precipitation could run higher in southern and western areas, The Weather Network said. A colder, stormier pattern is forecast to settle in by late fall.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba are also forecast to see warmer-than-normal conditions in September and October, offering an excellent window to finish harvest.

– Crop input costs to rise in 2026… Crop input costs are expected to rise in 2026, while crop prices are expected to come down, according to Farm Credit Canada’s analysis. Canadian farmers are forecasted to spend $22.5 billion on crop inputs in 2026, wrote FCC senior economist Leigh Anderson in a Sept. 10 report. “This could make 2026 one of the most expensive crop years, potentially rivaling the record set in 2022,” Anderson said.

Fertilizer costs are expected to reach nearly $10 billion. “Fertilizer prices have been rising over the summer, even though this is usually a quiet time when prices tend to drop,” Anderson wrote. High prices have suppressed summer demand among Canadian farmers…many of whom have delayed purchases.

However, US farmers planted 7.4% more corn than last year, which elevated demand for nitrogen and supported prices. Demand has also been strong in other parts of the world, including Europe. Global phosphate supplies are tight and prices remain high.

Geopolitics like the war in Ukraine also continue to influence fertilizer supply. A peace deal could ease energy and fertilizer prices and help restart European nitrogen plants. Continued conflict would keep prices high. Additionally, US tariffs on Russia may increase nitrogen costs, particularly for Eastern Canada.

China has resumed limited exports of urea and phosphate after years of restriction, Anderson added. This could help ease global shortages.

– SCOTUS to review Trump tariffs… The US Supreme Court will decide if President Donald Trump’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act is legal. The law was created in 1977 and allows the President to regulate or prohibit trade when a national emergency is declared. The law lets the President use sanctions and embargoes but has no specific language authorizing tariffs.

Trump declared two emergencies. In February, he questionably declared an emergency over fentanyl and imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. He also declared an emergency to bring trade deficits under control and create an advantaged trading balance favoring the US.

The use of tariffs by Trump is being challenged by the American Farm Bureau Federation, National Farmers Union, Farmers for Free Trade, small business groups and by Democratic-led states. Those challengers won at the US Court of Appeals on a 7-4 decision, but the Supreme Court decided it will quickly hear the case, taking oral arguments during the first week of November.

– US biofuel stock value getting hit… Shares of US biofuel companies have slumped on fears Trump administration policies may fall short of fully offsetting exemptions from mandates requiring refineries to blend renewable fuels into gasoline and diesel. The Trump administration is considering a plan that would require large refiners to take on “half or less” of the blending obligations originally assigned to small refineries that received waivers, Reuters has reported, citing people familiar with the matter, said a Bloomberg report. Such a move would reduce near-term demand for crop- and waste-based fuels, tempering investor enthusiasm for US biofuel producers following the EPA’s June proposal to significantly raise production quotas for 2026 and 2027.

The issue has emerged as a key point of contention between US farm and oil lobbies as they respond to Trump’s proposed biofuel policy. Shares of crop processors Bunge Global SA and Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. slumped the most since April on Wednesday. Ethanol suppliers Valero Energy Corp. and Green Plains Inc. plunged as much as about 5%. A key price indicator for biofuels…the so-called RINs…traded at the lowest levels since June.

– SovEcon raises 2025 Russian wheat crop forecast again… Grain consultancy SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop in 2025 to 87.2 MMT, up from 86.1 MMT. The revision reflects stronger than expected yields in Siberia and the Urals, where crops are approaching record levels, it said. Total Russian grain and pulse production is now projected at 134.9 MMT, compared to 130.5 MMT previously, SovEcon said.

– Ukraine sunoil exports fall 19% year-on-year in August… Exports of Ukrainian sunflower oil fell to 161,000 tonnes in August, the last month of the 2024/25 marketing season, from 199,000 tonnes a year earlier, Ukraine’s grain traders union UGA said. Ukraine is a leading global sunflower seed grower and sunflower oil exporter, but output has declined since Russia’s 2022 invasion due to occupied territory and mined fields. UGA gave no explanation for the decline while analysts have said a smaller sunseed harvest is the main reason for the decrease in shipments.

Ag consultancy APK-Inform said that Ukrainian sunflower oil exports could fall to 4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 September to August season from 6.2 MMT in 2023/24. The consultancy forecast sunoil exports at 5.7 MMT in 2025/26 as sunoil production is seen rising to 5.9 MMT from 5.2 MMT in 2024.

– US ethanol production up… US ethanol production rose to a three-month high last week. The US Energy Information Administration says production averaged 1.105 million barrels per day, the highest since early June, an increase of 30,000 on the week and 25,000 on the year. Iowa State University says estimated operating margins for the average Iowa plant are the best they’ve been so far in 2025, indicating a solid return. US ethanol stocks of 22.837 million barrels were 273,000 above the previous week, but 877,000 below a year ago.

– Argentina corn on track for record season… Argentina could report a record corn production in the 2025/26 season as farmers shift away from soybeans and other crops. The Rosario grains exchange forecasts the coming corn crop to yield an output of 61 MMT, provided the crop experiences normal rainfall during its growth cycle. At the same time, the exchange projected that soybean planting will fall 7% year-on-year to 40.5 million acres, with production expected to reach 47 MMT.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange also projects a decline in soybean area, though smaller, estimating a 4.3% drop to 43.5 million acres as soybean profitability remains low or even negative in some regions.

Argentina’s previous record corn harvest was 52.5 MMT in 2023/24, according to Rosario. Planting for the 2025/26 corn crop has already begun, while soybean planting will start in late September and October.

Rosario also raised its estimate for the almost completed 2024/25 corn harvest to 50 MMT, up from 48.5 MMT last month.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 220.42 points lower on Wednesday to settle at 45,490.92, but the S&P 500 rose 19.43 points to 6,532.04. Early Thursday, the September Dow Jones Futures are up 111 points.

Global stock markets are trending higher this morning as investors wagered US inflation data would be benign enough to ensure a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week and perhaps two more by year-end. Wall Street futures are in positive territory this morning after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched record-high closes yesterday. TSX futures edged up after Canada’s main stock index also closed at a fresh high yesterday.

Notably US economic data out this morning…prices US consumers pay for a variety of goods and services moved higher than expected in August while US jobless claims accelerated, providing challenging economic signals for the Federal Reserve before its meeting next week.

The US consumer price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.4% increase for the month, double the prior month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.9%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.3% and 2.9%. For the vital core reading that excludes food and energy, the August gain was 0.3%, putting the 12-month figure at 3.1%, both as forecast. Fed officials consider core to be a better gauge of long-run trends. Inflation numbers largely came in as expected.

On US employment, the Labor Department reported a surprise increase in weekly unemployment compensation filings to a seasonally adjusted 263,000, higher than the 235,000 estimate and up 27,000 from the prior period.

Inflation data amid a weakening US labor market suggests US Fed policy will lean towards a US interest rate cut when the Fed meets next week.

The September US Dollar Index is down 0.002 at 97.745. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.13 US cents.

October crude oil futures are down $1.23 at US $62.44/barrel. Oil prices are weaker as worries over softening US demand and broad oversupply risks bare greater weighed than the concerns over attacks in the Middle East and the Russian war in Ukraine. While geopolitical conflicts provide some support to oil prices, the market seems more concerned with oversupply.

US crude and fuel inventories rose last week amid a decline in exports and demand, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. US crude stockpiles rose by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels in the week ended September 5, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a draw of 1 million barrels.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are up 5 to 6 cents/bu this morning. Bean futures fell back into Wednesday’s close, with contracts 5 to 6 cents in the red. Soymeal futures are up $1/ton this morning after losing $2 to $5 yesterday. Soyoil futures are a modest 11 to 18 points this this morning after rising 36 to 54 points yesterday.

Trade in beans is somewhat subdued ahead of Friday’s USDA supply/demand report which is expected to show a slightly decline in US national average yield and production…though still big on both counts.

USDA this morning reported US soybean export sales of 541,100 tonnes for the week ended Sept 4, which came in at the lower end of trade expectations which ranged between 0.4 and 1.6 MMT.

CONAB this morning raised its estimate of 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production by 1.92 MMT to a monster record large 171.47 MMT.

Still a big concern for the US bean market…Chinese importers have booked around 7.4 MMT of mainly South American soybeans for October shipment, covering 95% of China’s projected demand for the month and 1 MMT so far for November…nothing is officially scheduled from the US. China continues to stay away from US soybeans due to Trump trade war tensions.

Chicago corn futures are flat to fractionally higher this morning. The corn market closed out Wednesday’s session with contracts down 2 to 4 cents across most contracts. Traders continue to place bets ahead of Friday’s USDA supply/demand updates.

A Reuters survey of analysts suggest USDA will report a 2.6 bu/acre reduction to US national average corn yield on Friday to 186.2 bu/acre…though that’s still record large. US production is seen at 16.516 billion bu, which would be down 226 million bu from the August estimate, though also still record large.

USDA this morning reported US corn export sales of 539,900 tonnes for the week ended Sept 4, which came in surprisingly below trade expectations which ranged between 0.9 and 2.4 MMT. Export sales from the US has been a supportive feature underlying the corn market. While one week does not make a trend…this result for the latest week was deemed a disappointment.

Meanwhile, data from Wednesday showed strong US ethanol production in the week ending on September 5 at 1.105 million barrels per day, up 30,000 bpd from the week prior. Stocks saw a build of 273,000 barrels to 22.837 million barrels.

US wheat markets are in the red again this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are down a penny, while the winter wheats are losing 2 to 3 cents. The US wheat complex posted losses across all three exchanges on Wednesday…spring wheat finished 7 to 8 cents weaker yesterday.

USDA this morning reported US wheat export sales of 305,400 tonnes for the week ended Sept 4, which came in at the low end of trade expectations which ranged between 300,000 and 650,000 tonnes.

USDA’s monthly report on Friday has traders are only looking for minor adjustments to US and world wheat ending stocks. The average guess for US domestic wheat stocks is a slight decrease, while world wheat stocks might see a modest increase. The trade will be watching for any changes to production numbers for Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, and development conditions in Argentina and Australia.

Russia’s wheat forecast was raised by another 1.1 MMT from earlier this week according to SovEcon to an increasingly robust 87.2 MMT.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures ended higher on Wednesday, taking back Tuesday’s losses as the market continued to consolidate above the five-month lows hit last week. Chicago soyoil was also higher, providing some spillover support for the Canadian oilseed. European rapeseed was up on the day as well, but CBOT soybeans and Malaysian palm oil were lower.

While tight old crop supplies remained supportive, the new crop harvest is progressing rapidly amid relatively favourable weather conditions.

Nov canola futures gained $8.40 yesterday to settle at $628.10/tonne, while Jan was up $8.70 at $640.70.

For today… canola futures are traded slightly higher for much of the overnight session but have turned weaker in the past hour…now down $1 to $2/tonne. Nov canola is off $1.90 at $626.20/tonne, giving back a small portion of yesterday’s corrective gain. As detailed here yesterday, we are seeing some underlying technical chart support basing above the price target drawn from the spring/summer head-and-shoulders top formation, but remains too early to conclude a firm price bottom with harvest ongoing amid geo-politically export demand uncertainty to China.

Downside price action is being limited…if you can call it that…with a wetter forecast over the coming week along the central to eastern side of the Canadian Prairies which could delay harvest regionally. But good progress of late has been made. There are periodic bouts of bargain hunting amid oversold canola market conditions…but again not enough to spur any sustained price bounce at this time.

Related outside markets…CBOT soy complex futures are showing modest gains this morning…as are Malaysian palm oil futures. EU rapeseed and crude oil are slightly weaker.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/