AM Market Report – September 10, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are attempting to rebound higher this morning…trading $7/tonne higher.

Chicago soybean futures are tipping 1 to 2 cents/bu lower this morning. CBOT corn futures are steady to a fraction of a penny weaker.

Soybean and corn markets remain in a choppy up/down pattern right now. Traders face so many different signals that they are uncertain which side to trade. Each day that goes by that China doesn’t buy US soybeans, or any news that it will buy, feeds the bears. Demand outside of China is strong, but the market knows that big crops are about to come out of the US fields. Corn is treading water until combines show whether the southern rust cut yields or not.

US wheat markets are mixed…winter wheats are fractionally to a penny higher, but spring wheat futures are 1 to 3 cents lower. Wheat futures continue to wallow near contract lows, pressured by still falling Russian export prices. In Russia, the world’s biggest wheat supplier, export prices continued to decline last week as some farmers stepped up harvest sales.

Market participants await the USDA’s US/global supply/demand estimates on Friday (Sept 12). The market anticipates USDA will trim its US soy/corn harvest yield forecasts in this report.

According to a Reuters survey of analysts, the agency will estimate US corn production at 16.516 billion bu and an average yield of 186.2 bu/acre…both still all-time highs. The average of the analysts surveyed by Reuters shows a US soybean production estimate of 4.271 billion bu and an average yield of 53.3 bu/acre in the September report, compared to the August USDA production estimate of 4.292 billion bu and an average yield of 53.6 bu/acre.

Friday’s USDA report will also be scrutinized for export adjustments. Brisk exports helped corn prices hit a six-week high, but the absence of demand from top soybean buyer China, amid a trade battle with Washington, has weighed on the US soybean market.

In Other News

– Poland shoots down Russian drones… Poland shot down drones that entered its airspace on Wednesday, the first time a NATO member is known to have fired shots since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament there had been 19 intrusions into Polish airspace overnight and that he had activated Article 4 of NATO’s treaty, under which alliance members can demand consultations with their allies. “I have no reason to claim we’re on the brink of war, but a line has been crossed, and it’s incomparably more dangerous than before,” he said. “This situation brings us the closest we have been to open conflict since World War Two.”

Tusk said the shooting down of three drones had been confirmed, and it was likely a fourth had been downed.

Deputy Prime Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz, who serves as defence minister, thanked NATO Air Command and The Royal Netherlands Air and the US Space Force for supporting the action with F-35 fighter jets.

– Moe shares goals for Chinese trade mission… The turmoil of Chinese canola tariffs, the United States turning trade upside down, and potential yellow pea tariffs from India has Saskatchewan, and Canada’s, producers caught in the middle. To advocate on behalf of Saskatchewan agriculture and other industries, as well as the Canadian canola, pork, pulse, and seafood industries, Saskatchewan Premier, Scott Moe, is travelling to China on a trade mission. He will be joined by Kody Blois, parliamentary secretary to Prime Minister Mark Carney.

“Our mission in China will focus on both meetings with Chinese government officials as well as industry stakeholders who are directly impacted by the tariffs as they come into place,” the premier said. Moe said he is “very pleased” to have Blois joining him and thanked the Prime Minister Carney for prioritizing the mission. Having the federal government along opens doors to the broader opportunities China could provide.

Moe’s goal for the trip is secure market access, find broader trade opportunities, and help lay the groundwork for the federal government as the Canadian canola industry is reliant on the Chinese market.

– Russian wheat export prices continue to decline… Russian wheat export prices continued to decline last week while domestic rouble prices stayed flat after a three-week decline as farmers had different strategies with some accelerating selling of wheat and others withholding to get better prices. The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in late September-early October was US $228/tonne at the end of last week, down $2 from the previous week, said the IKAR consultancy. The SovEcon consultancy estimated the price at $228-230/t FOB compared to $232-234 at the end of the previous week.

“The decline is unusual for this time of year, as prices typically bottom in July-August. Given the current exchange rate and domestic prices, we believe exporters can trim FOB a few dollars more if needed,” SovEcon said in a weekly note.

SovEcon said raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop in 2025 by 0.7 MMT to 86.1 MMT, citing improved prospects in the regions adjacent to the Volga river.

– Talk arises of India ending duty-free period… With harvest underway across the Canadian Prairies rumblings has been felt from the other side of the world, specifically in regards yellow peas. There have been recent media reports stating the Indian government is under growing domestic pressure to end its duty-free period on yellow pea imports. If such were to happen, it would be devastating to Canada’s yellow pea industry and its export program. Months earlier, the government of Narendra Modi set the deadline to either end or extend the duty-free period in March 2026. It’s unclear if that period will be ended sooner or permitted to run out in March.

Over the last number of years, declines in Indian pulse production necessitated the import of crops such as yellow peas from overseas, including those from Canada. India’s monsoon rains this year have increased output with domestic pulse groups demanding the end to duty-free imports.

Prairie cash bids for yellow peas have fallen notably through the summer months to around $7/bu or less…already being pressured under 100% import tariffs from key buyer China. Lentil pricing has also been trending lower.

In other news, Statistics Canada released its stocks as of July 31 report on Sept 9. For pulses, the 2024/25 carryovers placed lentils at 549,000 tonnes, far greater than the 165,000 tonnes the previous year. Also, pea ending stocks rose to 489,000 tonnes from 299,000 in 2023/24.

– US misses out on billions in China soybean sales… US farmers are missing out on billions of dollars of soybean sales to China halfway through their prime marketing season, as stalled trade talks halt exports and rival South American suppliers step in to fill the gap. Chinese importers have booked around 7.4 MMT of mainly South American soybeans for October shipment, covering 95% of China’s projected demand for the month and 1 MMT for November, or about 15% of expected imports. By this time last year, Chinese buyers had booked around 12 to 13 MMT of US soybeans for Sept-Nov shipment. The US normally ships most of its soybeans to China between September and January, before Brazil’s harvest hits the market, but Chinese buyers have yet to book any US cargoes for the new crop year.

– North Dakota farmers seeking a market… As farmers prepare to harvest what may be a record large US soybean crop, their largest export customer has yet to make a buy. Without a deal with China, North Dakota farmers may not get a bid for their soybeans. According to North Dakota Soybean Council Chair Jim Thompson, the local cash market is pushing growers to store their beans. North Dakota Soybean Growers Association President Justin Sherlock says the trade dispute with China needs to end.

“Maybe it’s getting an interim trade deal with a country like China so we have somewhere to just physically move and sell those soybeans,” said Sherlock. He said farmers want the export markets restored first. “We just need to get rid of the crop right now, then we can figure out where we’re at financially as we go into the winter months and loan renewal season.”

– US refinery-state senators look to block Trump from shifting renewable fuel obligation… US lawmakers from states with oil refineries, led by Republican Senator Mike Lee of Utah, will introduce legislation to block President Donald Trump from shifting US renewable fuel blending obligations from small refineries to larger ones, according to draft legislation seen by Reuters.

US biofuels policy has been politically divisive, pitting the oil industry against the farm interests that underpin US production of biofuels like ethanol and bio/renewable diesel. At the heart of the current fight is whether larger refineries should be forced to make up for the US biofuel blending requirements that small refineries avoid through federal exemptions. The Environmental Protection Agency has submitted a proposal on the issue for White House review, and its contents have not yet been made public.

The biofuel fight adds another headache for Trump as he tries to keep Republicans united during the effort to pass his budget and avoid a US government shutdown. Funding for federal agencies runs out at the end of the month, and the fight over small refinery exemptions is dividing GOP lawmakers just when Trump needs their support. The EPA recently cleared a backlog of more than 170 small refinery exemption requests dating back to 2016…a sweeping move that is now forcing the White House to review how billions of gallons of biofuel blending obligations should be handled going forward.

– EU clears Malaysia’s palm oil certification...The European Union has recognized the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certification as a credible standard that can facilitate compliance with EU’s new deforestation regulation, the Malaysian certification body said. The acknowledgement reinforces MSPO’s role as Malaysia’s national framework for sustainable palm oil and highlights its contribution to global trade and responsible sourcing, the certification body said in a statement.

The new EU regulation, due to come into effect in December, requires companies selling soy, beef, palm oil, wood, cocoa and coffee, and some products like leather, chocolate and furniture, to ensure that land associated with those products has not been subject to deforestation since the end of 2020.

MSPO began as a voluntary scheme for sustainable palm oil certification in Malaysia, the world’s second-largest palm oil exporter. It was made mandatory for the palm oil industry in January 2020, with audits conducted by independent third-party certification bodies to ensure compliance and credibility. The certification body said MSPO gives buyers and regulators the confidence that certified palm oil is legally sourced and deforestation-free, adding that its digital tracking system enables full supply chain visibility and strengthens trust among global stakeholders.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 196.39 points higher on Monday to settle at 45,711.34, while the S&P 500 gained 17.46 points to 6,512.61. Early Wednesday, the September Dow Jones Futures are up a modest 11 points.

US stock index futures are slightly higher this morning. European and Asian stock markets were also slightly higher overnight. TSX futures were in positive territory after Canada’s main stock market hit another record high yesterday in the wake of the Teck-Anglo American deal.

Global markets are watching the market influence of key US inflation data out this morning that could affect whether the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates next week. The final hurdles to in the Fed policy decision will come today and tomorrow, in the form of producer and consumer inflation readings, respectively.

The September US Dollar Index is down 0.027 at 97.725. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.20 US cents.

October crude oil futures are up $0.64 at US $63.27/barrel. Oil prices rose after Israel attacked Hamas leadership in Qatar, Poland shot down Russian drones and the US feigned a push for new sanctions on buyers of Russian oil. But concerns over crude oversupply capped further gains.

A global crude oil glut is already underway, with inventories expected to rise in the current quarter, according to a US Energy Information Administration report. Global oil inventories are set to grow by an average of more than 2 million barrels per day in the current quarter through the first quarter of next year. The anticipated influx of crude into the global market will depress oil prices in early 2026, potentially leading to a reduction in supply by both OPEC-plus and some non-OPEC producers later in 2026, said the EIA. However, the agency still projects US crude oil production will decline in 2026…the first annual drop in production since 2021.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are losing 1 to 2 cents/bu this morning. Bean futures closed Tuesday’s session with contracts 2 to 3 cents/bu lower. Soymeal futures are near unchanged (weakening bias) this morning after gaining $1 to $7/ton on Monday. Soyoil futures are a modest 8 to 14 points higher right now, but dropped 50 to 105 points yesterday.

USDA’s monthly US crop production report will be out on Friday, with a Reuters survey showing an expected 0.3 bu/acre drop to yield at 53.3 bu/acre on average. US bean production is estimated at 4.271 billion bu, a 21 million bu reduction if realized. For US and global ending stocks, little change is expected.

Brazil’s Ag Ministry says August soybean shipments were 9.338 MMT, most of that to China, which has yet to purchase 2025/26 US soybeans, at least outright, due to tariff tensions. AgRural says planting for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop has started.

Chicago corn futures are steady to less than a penny weaker this morning. The corn market slipped 1 to 2 cents on Monday.

Traders anticipate USDA on Friday will report on average a 2.6 bu/acre reduction to US corn yield this month to 186.2 bu/acre. Production is seen at 16.516 billion bu, which would be down 226 million bu from the August estimate…though still record large. For ending stocks, new crop figures are projected lower. Dry weather in the US Corn Belt is accelerating the new crop drying process faster than usual. The combines will soon tell the real story of this year’s output potential.

US corn continues to look at solid demand against what’s expected to be a very large supply.

AgRural says 12% of Brazil’s 2025/26 first corn crop has been planted, slightly slower than last year.

US wheat markets are trading with fractional to 1 cent gains in the winter wheat contracts, but 1 to 3 cent declines in spring wheat futures. The US wheat complex was lower on Tuesday, with weakness across much of the board…spring wheat finishing 2 to 4 cents in the red at the final bell.

On Friday, traders on average think the USDA on Friday will report US wheat ending stocks slightly below its August estimate. For the new marketing year, world ending stocks are seen as slightly higher than in August.

The North American spring wheat harvest well underway, while US winter wheat planting has commenced at a near average pace. Traders are also watching crop development conditions in Argentina and Australia (good so far).

SovEcon says Russia’s wheat prices are lower than last week due to a ramp up in farmer selling adding to the supply.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures declined on Tuesday, following the release of Statistics Canada’s grains stocks report. The report was considered friendly for canola, with the federal agency pegging national canola stockpiles as of July 31…ending stocks for the 2024-25 crop year…at 1.597 MMT. That is down 50.5% from the prior year’s 3.225 MMT and the lowest since the 2021-22 crop year. It was also on the low end of pre-report trade guesses.

However, losses in Chicago soybeans and soyoil ultimately pressured the canola market lower, along with weakness in palm oil. European rapeseed was higher on the day.

Seasonal harvest pressure also weighed on the canola market, amid mostly warm and dry weather across Western Canada to start the week. Some rain is expected to begin moving into parts of the Prairies toward the end of the week.

November canola fell $7.60 yesterday to close at $619.70/tonne, and January was down $6.60 to $632.

For today… canola futures are rebounding $6 to $7/tonne higher to start this morning, regaining ground lost on Monday. Nov canola futures are up $6.80 right now at $626.50/tonne. Canola futures are trying to stabilize in recent sessions…Nov canola in around the $615 to $630 range…which would put it near the technical target area of the chart’s head-and-shoulders top formation.

That said…price action is not yet conclusive of any serious bottoming at this time. With geo-politics…trade issues in particular…influencing in the canola market in unpredictable fashion these days.

The absence of canola demand from China amid trade disputes, the uncertainty of Trump policy on US biofuels and an ongoing North American oilseed harvest keeps price upside limited at this time. But do I want to initiate any fresh cash canola sales at this time? Nope. Price bottoming, with some measure of seasonal market bounce…though admittedly may be limited…probably reveals itself in the immediate post-harvest period, as it does in most years.

Related outside markets… CBOT soybean futures are slightly weaker this morning, though soyoil is stabilizing. EU rapeseed is higher for a second straight session…also trying to stabilize/bottom…though not conclusively yet. Malaysian palm oil is trading notably weaker as traders digested monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. Palm oil stocks at the end of August rose 4.18% from July to 2.2 MMT.

Yesterday’s StatCan grain stocks report as of July 31 (2024-25 marketing year-end) looked bullish on the headline with inventories down 50.5% compared to last year…1.597 MMT (2024-25) vs 3.225 MMT (2023-24). The problem is the impressive comparison was partly due to revisions higher in the past two years of on-farm stocks by StatCan based on their kinda confusing “administrative data” calculations.

The July 31, 2024, on-farm inventory was revised higher by 483,000 tonnes, taking last year’s ending stocks to 3.225 MMT. That made this year’s total of 1.597 MMT look like a sharp reduction, which it is, just not as low as the Ag Canada estimate just weeks ago at 1.181 MMT.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/