AM Market Report – October 9, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are trading very narrowly mixed this morning…less than $1/tonne either side of unchanged…interesting from the perspective of a fourth consecutive session of modest gains for the nearby contracts, but wide futures contract spreads and weak Prairie cash basis continue to suggest weak overall market conditions.

Chicago soybean futures are trading 4 to 5 cents/bu lower this morning…seeing a corrective pullback early today after hitting a 3-week high Wednesday. Beans had been rising of late on expectations that US harvest yields will be lower than the most recent USDA forecast (Sept 12) and on limited cash sales by farmers awaiting news from US-China trade talks and details of US government aid.

AM Market Report – October 23, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain market bulls are showing some signs of life late…

CBOT corn futures are fractionally to a penny lower. The corn market is in pause mode amid a choppy trading week.

US wheat markets are 1 to 4 cents higher amid tepid short-covering as prices linger near their contract lows on rising global supplies.

Traders, in the absence of USDA reports due to the US government shutdown, are watching futures spreads and basis prices closely.

In Other News

– Is a new Canada-US trade deal taking shape… Prime Minister Mark Carney said Wednesday Canadian and American officials are currently “negotiating terms” of a deal on tariffs a day after he met with the US president to try and bring the trade war to a close…and Canada will come out ahead when the two sides come to an agreement. Speaking in question period while facing pointed questions from the Opposition about what he accomplished out of his Oval Office sit-down with US President Donald Trump, Carney said Canada already “has the best deal with the Americans”…most products are still being sold into the US tariff-free despite Trump’s trade action…and “we will get an even better deal.”

“We are still negotiating further gains in major sectors,” Carney said, after he and the president had what he described as a meeting of the minds. “As we speak, our team is negotiating. This is not just words. We will get a deal.”

While the initial focus is on a deal related to the steel, aluminum and energy sectors, Carney said the two sides are “working on the modalities of an auto agreement” and some sort of solution to the punishing tariffs on the forestry sector.

Carney left Washington without a deal in hand or anything concrete to announce. Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc, who was also part of the White House discussions, stayed behind to hammer out the finer details of a possible agreement.

Speaking later at a summit on Canada-US relations, Carney said he and Trump were engaged in a “granular discussion” and he sees “a pathway to specific progress” on some of the sectoral tariffs that have hammered certain Canadian industries. Steel and aluminum exports have plummeted, and thousands of manufacturing jobs have been lost as a result of Trump’s actions.

While he’s supportive of working with Mexico and preserving the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement, he said not all trading relations will be governed by that document moving forward. “There is going to be some bilateral deals,” he said. “That’s one of the realities of the negotiation.”

– Brazil’s soybean exports to hit record as US out of China market…Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to reach 102.2 MMT through end-October, surpassing annual volumes for the whole of 2024 and 2023, reflecting the absence of US competitors serving Chinese importers, grain exporter group Anec data showed. The previous record for soy shipments from Brazil, the largest global producer and exporter, was set in 2023 at 101.3 MMT, according to Anec figures.

In addition to harvesting a record soybean crop exceeding 170 MMT in 2025, Brazilian farmers are benefiting from strong demand in China, which is embroiled in a tariff war with the US. “China continues to be the main destination and drive for Brazilian soy shipments,” Anec said. Anec data showed that China imported 6.5 MMT from Brazil in September, representing 93% of the export total, maintaining a historically high share of total shipping volumes out of the South American country.

Relying primarily on Brazil to guarantee supplies, China fetched 79.9% of Brazil’s total soybean exports, compared to 74% between 2021 and 2024. In 2024, China’s share was 76%, Anec said.

Projections for the year were released in the first monthly shipment report for October, when Anec projects shipments of 7.12 MMT, almost 2.7 MMT above the same month last year.

For the 2025 calendar year, Anec projects that 110 MMT of Brazilian soybeans will be exported.

– Argentina exchange raises wheat forecast…Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest is forecast to reach a record-tying 23 MMT, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday, raising its estimate due to high yields from abundant soil moisture. The new forecast, up from a previous 20 MMT, is a result of months of above-average rainfall in the country’s main agricultural regions. If confirmed, the harvest would tie the production record set four seasons ago. Argentine farmers are expected to begin the harvest in the coming weeks, with the work concluding in January.

The exchange held its harvest estimates for soybeans and corn at 47 MMT and a record 61 MMT, respectively. Planting for the 2025/26 corn crop is 28% complete, while soybean planting is set to begin in the second half of October. Argentina is the world’s third-largest corn exporter and the leading global supplier of soybean oil and meal.

– Expana lifts EU cereal forecasts, corn exceeds expectations… Expana has raised its monthly grain production forecast for European Union crops for the 2025/26 season, projecting soft wheat output will hit a record high and barley a 17-year high. In its latest cereal forecasts, Expana increased its estimate for EU soft wheat production this season by 0.3 MMT from last month’s forecast to 136.4 MMT, up 22.8 MMT from the rain-affected 2024/25 crop. Barley output was revised 0.2 MMT higher to 56.4 MMT, up 6.2 MMT year-on-year. For corn, Expana raised its crop estimate by 0.8 MMT to 56.5 MMT, after the harvest turned out slightly better than previously expected, though the crop remains 2.5 MMT below last season and the second lowest since 2007.

Expana continues to expect that EU soft wheat exports will rebound sharply this season, but said the increase looks set to be held in check by fierce competition on international markets, especially from US, Australian and Argentinian origins.

– Near to below normal winter temps expected… The Weather Network is forecasting near- to below-normal temperatures across much of Canada this winter, driven by a developing weak La Nina pattern. While Atlantic Canada and parts of the north may see slightly milder conditions at times, the Weather Network s preliminary winter outlook warns that winter is not cancelled, with significant cold spells still expected nationwide.

After an unusually warm fall that has stretched from the Rockies to the Maritimes, signs are emerging that the mild pattern will soon give way, the forecast said. October is expected to bring continued warmth interrupted by brief cold snaps, setting the stage for a sharper transition in November. Once that shift occurs, colder weather is expected to take hold and persist through much of December.

The developing La Ni a will play a key role in shaping conditions. Historically, La Ni a winters have split Canada, bringing bitter cold to the West, while allowing milder air to dominate the East. However, weaker La Ni a years…like the one forming now…have sometimes flipped the script, with frigid air instead anchoring across Eastern Canada.

As the map below shows, the Weather Network forecast suggests below normal winter temperatures for much of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, along with a portion of Alberta. On the other hand, near normal readings are expected for southern Ontario and into southern Quebec.

In terms of storm activity, the dominant storm track is expected to sweep into the Great Lakes and up the St. Lawrence Valley. An active storm pattern is also forecast along the British Columbia coast.

The Weather Network will release its final winter forecast on Nov. 26.

– US farm support payments delayed by shutdown… The Trump administration has pushed back its plans to roll out economic aid for American farmers this week due to the US government shutdown, according to four people familiar with the talks. The Office of Management and Budget has readied between $12 and $13 billion to be allocated from an internal USDA account, some of which could be used to fund the subsidy payments for farmers hurt by US President Donald Trump s tariffs, trade wars and other economic headwinds, according to the four people with knowledge of the decision, all granted anonymity to share private details.

No final decision has been made on just how much of the money will go toward US farm aid, the people said, and the package won t be coming out any time soon. The timeline has been further delayed because some USDA political appointees have been furloughed during the shutdown.

Trump tapped USDA s internal fund to dole out $28 billion worth of subsidy payments during his first-term trade war with China.

– China tightens rare earth export controls, targets defence, semiconductor users… China tightened its rare earth export controls, expanding restrictions on processing technology and spelling out its intention to limit exports to overseas defence and semiconductor users. The announcement from the Ministry of Commerce clarifies and expands sweeping controls announced in April that caused shortages around the world before a series of deals with Europe and the US eased but did not eliminate the supply crunch.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked an ever so slight 1.20 points lower on Wednesday to settle at 46,601.78, but the S&P 500 ended up 39.13 points to 6,753.72. Early Thursday, the December Dow Jones Futures are down another modest 3 points.

Global markets are taking a breather and are searching for direction after an AI-related tech rally yesterday. Wall Street futures were muted after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq notched fresh all-time closing highs in the previous session. TSX futures are edging up this morning after Canada s main stock market closed up 150 points yesterday, just shy of Monday s all-time record high.

The AI theme remains intact as we see another stream of multibillion-dollar investments come into the space, wrote analysts at JPMorgan in a note. Investors can talk all they want about the circularity of this AI investment cycle, but these daily headlines are being rewarded with strength until proven otherwise.

Bond Market Watch

While there are presently no indications the US government shutdown is close to ending, when it does and backed-up US economic data starts to flow, the marketplace will see increased volatility. That s what US Treasury traders believe. The pent-up US data includes reports on US employment and inflation. The delay may complicate the collection of economic figures, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to decide whether to ease interest rates again, and options activity shows demand for hedges against a range of Fed scenarios. Traders are preparing for potential turbulence in the $30 trillion US Treasuries market, with options pricing indicating a likelihood of volatility once the data is released, and some expecting jumpy price action if the data is an outlier, said a Bloomberg report.

$$$

The December US Dollar Index is up 0.060 at 98.700. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.72 US cents.

Oil

Nov crude oil futures are up $0.18 at US $62.73/barrel. Oil prices are edging up as investors weighed a ceasefire deal in Gaza that could ease geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against stalled peace talks in Ukraine that could sustain sanctions on Russia and curb its exports.

The peace agreement is a major breakthrough in recent Middle Eastern history…its implications for oil markets could be wide-ranging, from the possibility of a decrease in the Houthis attacks in the Red Sea to an increase in the likelihood of a nuclear deal with Iran and, eventually, the possibility for Iran to increase its crude and product exports, Rystad Energy s chief economist Claudio Galimberti said in a note.

But traders should not get too far ahead of themselves…as these ceasefire agreements have failed multiple times in the past.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 4 to 5 cents/bu weaker to start this morning, peeling back a bit from its recent advance to 3-week highs. The soybean market posted gains of 4 to 7 cents on Wednesday, led by the front months. Nov bean futures are down 5.75 cents this morning at $10.24/bu…caught up in a cluster of moving averages (20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day) offering both support and resistance.

Soymeal futures are down less than $1/ton this morning after gaining slightly yesterday on the front months. Soyoil futures are slipping 27 to 30 points this morning…putting a pause on this week s modest gains.

Given the ongoing US government shutdown…no weekly US export sales data out this morning, while today s scheduled release of USDA s October monthly supply/demand report has also been canned.

Brazilian soybean exports are estimated at 7.12 MMT during October, which is well above the 4.44 MMT in the same period last year as the South American nation takes export business away from the US going into China.

Optimism that a meeting between US President Donald Trump and China s Xi Jinping at the end of the month could revive Chinese buying of US soybeans offers price support…but I don t expect any quick resolution here.

The market also awaits details of a farm aid package that could help US soy growers struggling with China s lack of purchases.

Chicago corn futures are leaking fractionally to a penny lower this morning. The corn market ended mostly 1 to 2 cents higher on Wednesday. Dec corn is a half cent weaker at $4.21/bu…with the bounce off the August low now stalled around this $4.20 region.

EIA data from Wednesday morning showed an average total of 1.071 million barrels per day of US ethanol production in the week ending Oct 3. That was a rebound of 76,000 bpd from the previous week. This increase is in line with seasonal patterns which sees production decline in September and rebound in early October. Ethanol stocks were still tightening, down 44,000 barrels to 22.72 million barrels.

No report today of US weekly corn exports give the US government shutdown, but the trade presumes the pace of sales and shipments remains robust.

US wheat markets are slightly higher this morning… HRS/HRW wheat futures rising 2 to 3 cents, while SRW is up 1 to 4 cents. On Wednesday, the US wheat complex bounced from mixed midday action to close with front months in the green across the three exchanges…spring wheat futures were up 3 to 4 cents on the day.

While wheat futures are oversold, any sustained upside might be limited by growing global supplies following larger crops in Canada, Europe, and Russia, with the potential for rising production year-over-year in Argentina, Australia, and Ukraine.

SovEcon estimates Ukraine wheat crop at 22.9 MMT, up 1.5 MMT above their pervious number. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimates the Argentina wheat crop for 2025/26 at 23 MMT vs the 20 MMT previous estimate. Expana increased their EU wheat production estimate by 0.3 MMT to 136.4 MMT. Strong global supply potential continues to limit seasonal rebound potential for wheat markets.

Whoever coined the cliche “it’s always darkest before the dawn” obviously didn’t live to see the 2025 wheat market, which has been dark and gloomy from pretty much day one. That being said, I can’t help but again find myself thinking the bottom is near. And, although prices could likely continue to face an uphill climb through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, there is no denying the attractiveness of low prices to buyers worldwide that could be an influencer moving forward.

Commercial demand for 1 CWRS wheat remains strong…reflected in robust weekly CGC export stats and in the strongest Prairie cash basis offerings of the year by far. Suggests to me a marketing formula of locking in strong basis, but leaving the futures component on pricing open for nearby cash deliveries.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

Crude oil closed higher for the fourth day on Wednesday, offering some spillover support for canola. Chicago soybeans and soyoil also ended with gains yesterday, along with Malaysian palm oil. Weakness in the Canadian dollar offered further upside inertia, while seasonal harvest pressure is now easing with most of the 2025 Prairie crop in the bin. On the other hand, European rapeseed finished with losses on Wednesday.

November canola finished up $2 on Wednesday at $617/tonne, and January was $2.90 higher at $631.

For today… canola futures are very narrowly mixed to start this morning…flat to less than $1/tonne either side of unchanged. Nov canola futures are up $0.40 this morning at $617.40/tonne…interesting from the perspective of a fourth consecutive session of modest gaining, but wide futures contract spreads (Nov-Jan) and weak Prairie cash basis continue to suggest overall weak market conditions. Until at least the dominant downward trendline is broken, it s hard to suggest anything bullish here.