AM Market Report – October 8, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures were trending slightly higher for most of the overnight session, but 90 minutes ago tipped slightly lower to now trade less than $1/tonne below yesterday s close.

Chicago soybean futures are trading 1 to 3 cents/bu this morning…showing modest strength this week. US bean farmers await an announcement on US government financial assistance (subsidies) due to negative tariff trade impacts with China.

CBOT corn futures are steady to a penny higher. The corn market is consolidating and pausing at mid-week, though record large US crop prospects remain a wight on corn pricing.

AM Market Report – October 23, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain market bulls are showing some signs of life late…

US wheat markets are very narrowly mixed, but holding at/near contract lows on ample global production…still trapped in price downtrends that continue to invite the chart-based speculators to the sell side.

US grain markets remain range-bound as a US government shutdown deprives traders of key USDA data including harvesting progress and production updates.

Traders are looking ahead to a meeting between US President Donald Trump and China s Xi Jinping. They are expected to discuss US soybean exports to top importer China, which has shunned US beans during a trade war. But China now seems well-covered with South American supply.

In Other News

– Carney/Trump meeting heavy on optics, light on specifics… Prime Minister Mark Carney made his second trip down to the gold-laden White House yesterday, and much was the same as the first go-round. He once again proclaimed Donald Trump to be a transformational president, then proceeded to say very little at all. As Trump blabbered on about crime-ridden US cities; transgender everything; the magnitude of his electoral win…Carney stayed familiarly immobile in his chair. He raised a slight eyebrow when Trump lambasted low-IQ Democrats. He might ve winked at the mention of our US travel boycott.

No tangible trade deal achieved as talks between ministers continue on steel, aluminum and energy before moving to other matters. But a grand deal was not expected, though sources suggest progress is being made. Trump repeatedly predicted in the Oval Office that the two countries would reach a mutually satisfying arrangement soon…that s new and at least sort of positive.

But I don t envy anyone tasked to negotiate with an erratic and irrational US president. It s got to be frustrating dealing with someone who constantly demands being flattered and insists that trade talks to be an I win, you lose endeavour. Trump s position will always be that any country must now pay for the privilege to have access to the lucrative US market. But it s important for Canada to continue chipping away at negotiating with the US right now…as re-upping the Canada-US-Mexico agreement in 2026 may not go well without some groundwork established beforehand.

– Canada’s tariff scenarios… The US trade war has already hit the Canadian economy, but the tariff path ahead could still lead to anything from modestly slower growth to a recession, a new report says. Looking at three possible tariff paths, the report by BMO says that even the more optimistic scenario of tariffs staying at the roughly 7% average level could mean a 1.5% drop in long-term GDP, compared with the outlook at the start of the year. A worst-case scenario with a 35% tariff across the board could mean a moderate recession in the short-term and 5% shaved off long-term economic growth, while a middle scenario of tariffs averaging 15% could mean significantly slower growth in the near-term and 2.5% cut to growth.

BMO chief economist Douglas Porter says the most likely path seems to be a continuation of current tariff rates. We call it the muddle through scenario, Porter said. We do believe that something close to the average tariff on Canada is about what we re going to be left with.

– Nothing bullish for sliding oat market… MarketsFarm reporter Phil Franz-Warkentin write that Chicago oat futures have trended steadily and dramatically lower for the past three months, with cash bids in Western Canada seeing a similar trend. Nearby Dec oat futures have moved below US $3/bu for the first time in nearly five years, while cash bids in Saskatchewan are well below C$4/bu.

Everything is down, which doesn’t help, said Scott Shiels of Grain Millers in Yorkton, Sask., noting that there was no spillover support coming from other grains like wheat, barley or corn. For right now, there s nothing bullish out there to drive (prices) higher.

While better pricing opportunities were available earlier in the growing season, it s not a great fall pricing-wise for guys if they didn’t do stuff ahead of time, said Shiels. He expected there may not be much more room to the downside, but added that any move higher likely won t occur until the New Year as end users are covered for now.

He said farmer selling remained steady despite the softer prices, attributing some of that activity to the logistics of storing oats. If you have a good crop of oats, it takes up a lot more space than a good crop of canola or wheat…If you get the option to move it before the snow flies, you take it, said Shiels.

Quality of Canada s oats was generally good, with about three quarters of the crop off the field before rains led to quality issues with the final quarter of the harvest. Shiels said there was plenty of good quality milling oats, although there may also be more feed quality oats looking for a home than in recent years.

Most feeders will be looking for barley and wheat before oats and won t want to adjust their rations unless they can guarantee a long-term supply of oats, so anybody with feed quality oats will need to market it aggressively, added Shiels.

– Argentina orders oilseed workers to suspend planned strike…Argentina’s government said it had ordered oilseed workers’ unions to suspend plans for an indefinite strike over wages at processing plants, the Labor Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday. The South American nation is a top world supplier soybeans and soy products. Argentina’s Federation of Oilseed Industry Workers, Cotton Ginners and Related Workers of the Republic of Argentina (FTCIODyARA) and San Lorenzo Oil Workers’ Union (SOEA) had called for the strike to begin on Wednesday. The unions said a proposal put forward by business representatives at a hearing at the National Labor Secretariat was “insufficient and provocative.”

The Labor Ministry said a 15-day period of mandatory conciliation had been initiated, requiring unions and workers to refrain from any planned or ongoing industrial action and to provide services as normal. The announcement comes shortly after a two-day pause on export taxes for corn, soybeans, soymeal and soyoil at the end of September, which prompted a brief trading frenzy as exporters sold off billions of dollars worth of goods.

– Bank of England says stock markets overvalued… Stretched valuations for artificial intelligence companies and challenges to the US Federal Reserve s independence have fueled the risks of a sharp market correction, the Bank of England said, in its strongest warnings yet. In its quarterly financial stability update, the UK central bank said asset valuations have continued to rise and credit spreads tighten since its June review, despite persistent material uncertainty around the global macroeconomic outlook. Equity market valuations appear stretched with technology companies focused on AI particularly vulnerable, especially if expectations around the impact of AI become less optimistic, officials said, according to minutes of the Financial Policy Committee meeting held on Oct. 2 and reported by Bloomberg.

The latest BOE report follows similar comments from other notables, including famed trader Paul Tudor Jones, who this week said the US stock market may be entering a blow-off top phase.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 91.99 points lower on Tuesday at 46,602.98, while the S&P 500 was down 25.69 points at 6,714.59. Early Wednesday, the December Dow Jones Futures are up 150 points.

Global stock markets regained footing after sell-offs yesterday as investors latched on to the prospect of lower interest rates. Wall Street futures are in positive territory this morning after major North American markets retreated from record highs in the previous session. Canada s TSX stock index futures are pointed higher, lifted by strengthening metals and oil prices.

The December US Dollar Index is up 0.186 at 98.470. The USDX has rallied sharply the past three weeks, hitting a 9-week high today, while the Euro currency sunk to a two-month low, mostly due to a French political crisis that has the European Union and European markets on edge. The Canadian dollar is edging up against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.76 US cents.

Nov crude oil futures are up $0.53 at US $62.26/barrel. Oil prices are on the rise as investors brushed off oversupply fears, having digested a decision earlier by OPEC+ to restrain production increases next month. The market is in price limbo, with one side bent towards a possible global supply glut and the other believing the OPEC production ramp-up will not be as fast as anticipated.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 1 to 3 cents/bu higher this morning, led by the nearby Nov contract which is up 3.5 cents at $10.25/bu…pushing higher since the start of the month and trying to move back above its 20- and 50-day moving averages ($10.23 and $10.25 respectively). The 100- and 200-day averages are just above ($10.28).

Seasonally, soybean futures tend to bottom at the beginning of October. But seasonality may be compromised with the lack of US soybean trade with China this fall.

Soyoil futures are making gains again this morning…up 33 to 37 points and adding to yesterdays gains of 38 to 74 points…further cementing chart support above the 50 cent/lbs level.

Despite US Treasury Secretary Bessent stating last week there would be news on Tuesday, the White House stated the government shutdown had delayed a US farm aid announcement.

There will be no USDA crop production and supply/demand report this Thursday due to the government shutdown, though a Reuters survey of analysts shows yield at 53.2 bu/acre. That would be down 0.3 bu from USDA s report in September, with US bean production seen down 30 million bu to 4.271 billion bu.

Chicago corn futures are flat to a penny higher this morning. The corn market rounded out Tuesday s trade with the front months down as much as 2 cents, as contracts pulled back from some technical pressure.

Despite the US government shutdown likely suspending Thursday s USDA supply/demand report, a Reuters survey shows analysts estimating average US national corn yield at 185 bu/acre with a record crop of 16.7 billion bu, down 1.7 bu from the September USDA report.

Corn planting conditions in Argentina and Brazil continue to generally look favorable.

US wheat markets are going no where…hanging at/near contract lows…spring wheat futures are currently flat to a penny weaker, HRW fractionally to a penny lower, while SRW wheat flat to fractionally higher.

The US wheat complex closed Tuesday on a weaker note, as the three exchanges fail to see many buyers come in. Minnie spring wheat futures were 4 to 5 cents in the red at yesterday s final bell.

The big bearish factor continues to be rising global supplies following production increases in Canada, Europe, and Russia, with mostly non-threatening development weather in Argentina and Australia.

Weather is turning dry for much of the US winter wheat growing region in the next week, allowing for planting to continue, though it is less than ideal for helping emergence.

Analysts are looking for the US wheat ending stock projection to be raised by 31 million bu to 875 million bu in the October USDA report. But Thursday s scheduled report release will likely be suspended due to the US government shutdown.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

Strength in Chicago soyoil helped to lift ICE canola futures to gains for the second straight day on Tuesday. Advances in soybeans also underpinned canola, although meal was lower. European rapeseed was higher and Malaysian palm oil lower. Weakness in the Canadian dollar helped boost canola as well, as did some easing in seasonal harvest pressure.

Nov canola gained $7.50 yesterday to close at $615/tonne, and January was up $7.70 at $628.10.

For today… canola futures were trending steady to slightly higher for much of the overnight session, but in the past 90 minutes have turned weaker…currently down less than $1/tonne from Tuesday s closing prices. Nov canola futures are a very modest $0.10 lower at $614.90/tonne…holding above technical chart support in the $600-$610 zone, but still struggling with overhead resistance at the 20-day average ($618) and the downtrend line drawn off the June high.

This is the timeframe seasonally…as we enter post-harvest…when the canola market tends to turn correctively higher. And modest gains in CBOT soybeans and soyoil is lending support to our canola market.

However, the continued lack of canola export business (China) creates a fall season demand hole that not even our domestic processors can fill.

EU rapeseed futures are narrowly mixed this morning, though within its recent range trade.

Palm oil posted overnight gains in a push to 7-week highs…supported by stronger CBOT soyoil, higher crude oil prices, and a weaker ringgit. Rising exports also bolstered sentiment, with cargo surveyors reporting shipments up 7.3 9.6% from August, while Reuters projected Malaysian stockpiles fell 2.5% to 2.15 MMT last month. Indonesia, the top palm producer, is pressing ahead with plans to make B50 biodiesel mandatory in 2026. But gains were capped by caution ahead of September s monthly data, alongside weak orders from India, the world s largest consumer.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/