AM Market Report – October 7, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are pushing up another $2 to $4/tonne to start this morning as the short-term view of price charts appears to be stabilizing as harvest pressure begins to ease, though still within the context of a longer term (3+ month) downtrend.

Chicago soybean futures are up 2 to 3 cents/bu this morning, with soyoil also stabilizing to edging higher of late…lending some support to canola futures trade. The US harvest continues to roar along, with brisk early planting as well as exports in rival supplier Brazil, and as top importer China continues to shun US soy supplies.

AM Market Report – October 23, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain market bulls are showing some signs of life late…

CBOT corn futures are down a fraction of a penny this morning (nearby Dec is up a half cent though). The corn market remains anchored by rising supplies from an accelerating US harvest of what is expected to be a record-large crop.

Corn and soybean market bulls continue to hang tough right in the heart of US harvest pressure that sees increased commercial hedge selling in both markets.

US wheat markets are narrowly mixed this morning…winter wheats fractionally to a penny higher, but spring wheat futures are steady to fractionally weaker. All wheats remain not far above their recent contract lows amid ample global supplies.

US ag markets are lacking fresh data amid the ongoing US government shutdown. Traders are watching yield reports closely. Without data to trade, the markets are leaning more on technical signals.

Trading is cautious as the market awaits an update today on US government aid to American soy farmers hurt by the trade war with China and an upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and China s Xi Jinping at the end of the month.

In Other News

– PM Carney will meet with Trump today… Prime Minister Mark Carney is preparing to meet with US President Donald Trump today in his second visit to the White House since he was elected. Carney is reportedly aiming to find relief for Canada s steel and aluminum sectors which have been hit hard by American tariffs. Ottawa appears to be managing expectations for the meeting, with sources telling The Globe & Mail that this will just be a working visit, with no breakthroughs expected.

– Western Prairie shortchanged on moisture in September… Moisture conditions in parts of Western Canada are headed in the wrong direction as the winter season approaches. As shown on the map below, much of the western Prairie region has been much drier than normal over the past 30 days. On the other hand, moisture has been more plentiful in the eastern half, especially southeastern Saskatchewan.

The latest Saskatchewan crop report highlights the stark difference between southeastern and southwestern portions of the province. In the southeast, cropland topsoil was rated 1% surplus, 72% adequate, 24% short and 3% very short as of Sept. 29, compared to 33% adequate, 50% short and 17% very short in the southwest.

Provincewide, cropland soil moisture was rated 1% surplus, 49% adequate, 38% short and 12% very short as of Sept. 29, compared to 59% adequate, 32% short, and 7% very short a week earlier. Last year at this time, Saskatchewan moisture conditions were rated 60% adequate, 34% short and 6% very short.

In Alberta, cropland surface soil moisture was rated just 6% good to excellent in the North East region as of Sept. 30, with the Central region at 7%. The South region was at 22% good to excellent, the North West at 23%, and the Peace at 27%.

Overall, cropland surface soil moisture across Alberta was rated just 15% good to excellent as of Sept. 30, versus 40% for the five-year average and 54% for the 10-year average.

As for Manitoba, the latest provincial crop report said most of the Interlake remains dry or very dry, while optimal to wet conditions dominate in the Northwest, Southwest, Central, and parts of the Eastern region.

With the Prairie harvest advancing well and the finish line in sight, producers in the drier areas would certainly now welcome more substantial rain to boost topsoil moisture before the ground freezes for the winter.

– Crop consultant slightly lowers US corn crop yield estimate... Noted crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier this week lowered his 2025 US national average corn yield by 1.0 bushel to 181.0 bu/acre, with a neutral-to-lower bias. USDA did not release its weekly crop progress and crop condition reports this week due to the US government shutdown, but the summer-like weather across the Midwest is accelerating the crop dry-down and early harvesting.

Corn yields continue to be variable, depending on how much the corn was impacted by southern rust. We will not know the final corn yield until the harvest is complete, but the storyline of the 2025 US corn crop is going to be the impact from southern rust, said Cordonnier.

His 2025 US soybean yield forecast was left unchanged this week at 52.0 bu/acre, with a neutral-to-lower bias. It is probably too dry in some areas, resulting in soybean seed moisture below 10%. When soybeans are extra dry at harvest, there can be a higher level of harvest loss due to increased shattering and splitting of soybeans that are subsequently blown out the back of the combine, he said.

– Trump still considering massive aid program for US farmers… Trump officials are reportedly evaluating how money made from tariffs could supplement US farmer subsidy payments. Official details about the bailout are scarce, though US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that information regarding substantial support for farmers would be released as soon as today, with the initial outlay potentially totaling somewhere between $10 and $15 billion, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday his administration will provide some of that tariff money to farmers, who are, for a little while, going to be hurt until the tariffs kick in to their benefit. The plan, however, could be difficult to roll out as an ongoing government shutdown prevents the kind of Congressional action needed to approve such a large payout, and existing government reserves fall short, the sources said.

– Russian wheat export prices up… Russian wheat export prices rose last week amid sustained demand. Analysts expect Russian exports to accelerate, though they will remain at significantly lower levels than during same period last year. The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the second half of November was at US $232/tonne at the end of last week, up $2 from the previous week, said the IKAR consultancy. The SovEcon consultancy, meanwhile, estimated the price at between US $230 and $232/t FOB, unchanged from the previous week.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev estimated this year’s wheat harvest at 88 MMT. And analysts see a continuing acceleration in exports.

– Australian wheat crop production trimmed by dry weather… A dry spell in Australia is taking the edge off of a bumper wheat harvest, trimming supplies from one of the world s largest exporters, according to a Bloomberg report. Precipitation in September, a key phase for the crop s development, was lower than normal in the southeastern states of Victoria and South Australia, according to Bureau of Meteorology data. South Australia received less than 10 millimeters (0.4 inches), half the historical average. The southeastern states account for about a quarter of Australia s annual harvest, and both are coming out of years of severe drought. Heavy rain in winter months had raised hopes for a strong harvest. Victoria and South Australia were expected to collect about 8.2 MMT.

I think there will be some cuts to production estimates, if they haven t already been made, in the next month or so, said James Maxwell, agribusiness senior insights manager at Bendigo Bank, in an interview with Bloomberg. Between South Australia and Victoria, I d say we could see easily cut 0.5 to 1.0 MMT, if it was really bad.

– Indonesia takes another step towards B50 biodiesel… Indonesia took another step towards launching biodiesel containing 50% palm-oil based biofuel (B50) by concluding laboratory tests, an energy ministry official said, as the country aims for implementation next year. Palm oil based biodiesel is currently mandated at 40% blend (B40) but Indonesia wants to increase the level to reduce its reliance on imports of fossil fuels. The laboratory testing involved running an engine using the B50 fuel and was concluded in August. Officials will now carry out road tests, the energy ministry’s bioenergy director, Edi Wibowo, told Reuters.

Indonesia aims to make B50 mandatory in 2026, but it was unlikely to happen in January. Adopting B50 would require 20.1 million kilolitres of palm oil based biofuel a year for mixing with regular petroleum diesel, compared to 15.6 million KL with B40, energy ministry data shows.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 63.31 points lower on Monday to settle at 46,694.97, but the S&P 500 finished 24.49 points higher at 6,740.28. Early Tuesday, the December Dow Jones Futures are up 82 points. TSX futures are in positive territory this morning after Canada s main stock market reached a fresh record high close yesterday.

Global stocks regained some stability this morning with modest gains as political upheaval in France, Japan and the US weighed on markets, but did not offset underlying investor optimism over a possible boost from lower US interest rates.

Investors also got another jolt of AI euphoria with the multibillion-dollar chip-supply deal between AMD and Open AI.

The December US Dollar Index is up 0.353 at 98.160. The Canadian dollar is steady against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.70 US cents.

Nov crude oil futures are down $0.48 at US $61.21/barrel. Oil prices are weaker as investors assessed a smaller-than-expected November output hike by OPEC+ against the backdrop of oversupply expectations.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading mostly 2 to 3 cents/bu higher this morning. Bean futures closed Monday s session with contracts steady to 2 cents lower. Soymeal futures are flat this morning. Soyoil futures are up 28 to 39 points this morning after rising 21 to 36 points across the board on Monday.

Monday morning s US export inspections report showed a total of 768,117 tonnes of soybeans were shipped in the week ended Oct 2. That was 25.8% above the week prior but a drop of 52.8% from the same week last year. The total inspections pace for the US soybean marketing year-to-date is now 15% below 2024 levels. The lack of China purchases is starting to play a role in the seasonal spike down in shipments. The report emphasized the need for the US to reach a trade agreement with China.

Brazil s trade ministry showed the soybean export total during September at 7.34 MMT, which was a 21.39% drop from August but still 20.15% above the same period last year.

Chicago corn futures are edging fractionally to a penny lower this morning. The corn market rose 2 to 3 cents on Monday. Dec corn futures are the exception, up a half cent to $4.22/bu…facing overhead chart resistance at the 20-day moving average ($4.22), the 50-day moving average ($4.24), and the July Fourth chart gap ($4.33).

US export inspections data showed 1.6 MMT of US corn were shipped in the week that ended on October 2, which was an increase of 3.94% from the week prior and 68.74% above the same week last year. Marketing year shipments have totaled 6.709 MMT, 56% larger yr/yr. Demand remains the main bullish factor, as US harvest activity accelerates in October.

The USDA s weekly US crop progress and condition report and the October 9th supply/demand, and production numbers are delayed indefinitely by the current shutdown of the US federal government.

US wheat markets are narrowly mixed this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are steady to fractionally lower (contract lows), while HRW/SRW wheats are steady to a penny higher. The US wheat complex saw losses on Monday…spring wheat futures finished down 3 to 4 cents in the front months.

USDA tallied US wheat export shipments at 505,096 tonnes during the week ending Oct 2. That was 42.18% below the week prior, but 38.46% above the same week last year. US wheat marketing year exports for 2025/26 are now 10.177 MMT since June 1, which is now 16.67% above the same period last year.

While wheat markets are technically oversold, any upside will be limited by rising world supplies. That followed increased production in Canada, Europe, and Russia, with the trade also monitoring development weather in Argentina and Australia, along with winter wheat planting weather in the Black Sea region. Recent rainfall in that part of the world has been mixed, missing some dry areas of Russia and Ukraine.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures managed small gains on Monday, with strength in other vegoils. Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were all higher on the day offering some support to canola.

Weather forecasts indicate central and southwestern portions of the Prairies will be dry and warmer than usual during much of the next 10 days, which should allow harvesting in those areas to wrap up for the season.

Nov canola finished $2.50 higher on Monday at $607.50/tonne, and January added $2.30 to $620.40.

For today… canola futures are trading $2 to $4/tonne higher this morning. Prairie harvest pressure may be subsiding now that the bulk of the crop is out of the field.

Nearby Nov futures are up $2.80 at $610.30/tonne…appears to be finding some stability above $600-$605 chart support…though still within the context of a downtrend line drawn off the late June high. Canola futures continue to trend below all key moving averages…first line of resistance is the 20-day at $619/tonne.

Stronger palm oil thanks to an expected seasonal slowdown in Malaysia/Indonesia production, and higher demand tied to year-end activities, may be helping shore up soyoil and canola markets. September Malaysian palm oil export estimates pointed to notable growth, with cargo surveyors reporting shipments rose 7.3 9.6% from August. On inventories, Reuters projected Malaysia s stockpiles fell 2.5% to 2.15 MMT last month.

European rapeseed futures are extending its recovery this morning from a recent test of the low end of its recent trading range.

On the feed grains… Ample supply amid slow-ish demand has weighed on Western Canada feed barley pricing into early October, with both buyers and sellers reluctant to push values one way or the other. Good crop production results are limiting buying interest, while farmers seem more content now to hold onto recently harvested supplies in hopes of securing better prices later…if they can.

High cattle prices may also be negatively affecting the grain market, as feedlots must put out record cashflow to bring cattle in. But demand for feed grain is expected to advance for delivery positions at the end of the calendar year or the beginning of next. During December through February, domestic feed demand is typically at seasonal highs.

US corn prices are premium priced vs domestic feed barley, which limits competition from corn imports.

Feed barley into Lethbridge is priced at $255/tonne for October position, with offers surfacing in the range of $260-$265/tonne for December. US corn delivered into Lethbridge is priced at Cdn $285/tonne.

Cattle on feed inventories in Alberta and Saskatchewan as of September 1 were 767,000 head. This number will increase to 1.050 million head on January 1.

Canadian feed barley is currently priced competitively with other major exporters landed into China. We haven t heard of any business, but there is potential for export trade to develop. The downside in the barley market from here is likely limited now that Canadian offers are competitive on the world market.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/