AM Market Report – October 6, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are trading mostly $1 to $2/tonne higher to start this morning after losing $14/tonne for the week ended Friday. General price downtrend remains intact, but canola is getting some modest supportive lift from Chicago soybeans and soyoil this morning.

The Western Canada harvest is nearing completion…as of Sept 29, 89% of Alberta crops had been harvested including 77% of the canola, Saskatchewan was at 84% and 71%, respectively, while Manitoba had 72% of harvest complete with 76% of the canola done. The past week of generally favorable weather ahead of the weekended would have wrapped up most remaining, as far as the market is concerned anyway.

AM Market Report – October 23, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain market bulls are showing some signs of life late…

CBOT soybeans are around 2 cents/bu higher this morning. Soyoil is higher, but meal is flat. Last week, Nov soybean futures posted a 4.25 cent gain due to the three-day price recovery starting Wednesday. The highly anticipated summit between US President Trump and President Xi of China is expected to take place on Oct. 31.

Soybeans continue to garner a lot of mainstream media attention with production numbers often exceeding storage capacity, with little export demand for the crop. South American production is beginning to garner more market attention as the US harvest is underway.

Chicago corn futures are flat to fractionally weaker this morning. On Friday, the corn market recouped some of its losses from the week but ultimately lost momentum. USDA early last week reported higher-than-expected US corn ending stocks for 2024-25 (ended Aug 31), though bulls quickly retraced losses, a testament to robust demand at lower prices. Lower US corn yield reports due to Southern Rust still keep traders wanting more proof of how widespread the damage is throughout the Corn Belt.

US wheat markets are edging fractionally to 2 cents higher. Wheat futures continue to see volatile trade, with a mid-week push to contract lows spurring profit-taking.

The corn and soybean bulls were left for dead early last week but then posted good price recoveries the latter half of last week, to keep alive hopes that near-term market bottoms are in place.

But traders are lacking fresh news to trade. Due to the US government shutdown, traders will not have access to the run of USDA reports that were scheduled for release this week. With Washington at a stalemate, critical ag and economic data is on hold. Instead, they the markets will have to rely on technical factors and basis levels to track harvests progress.

Markets are stuck in wait-and-see mode: harvest pressure is weighing, US government shutdown is stalling data, and geopolitical noise is fueling volatility. Corn has underlying demand support, soybeans hinge on China headlines, and wheat continues to fight big global supplies.

In Other News

– Carney meeting Trump in Washington… Prime Minister Mark Carney will be in Washington today ahead of a scheduled Tuesday meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House to seek a deal to end or reduce US tariffs.

Partial relief from steel tariffs is the modest expectation of the Canadian delegation. The hope is that any sort of steel tariff relief will create a framework or an example for how other tariffs already imposed on Canada could be lowered as well.

This will be the Prime Minister s second trip to the White House since taking office this year. After his last meeting with Trump in May, Carney emerged without any measurable progress in ending a costly trade war but also avoided any sign of conflict with the mercurial US President.

While sources characterize the ongoing trade talks between Canada and the US as positive, there remains a nervousness that comes with Trump-related events, given how unpredictable the president has proven to be.

Canada, Mexico and the United States are preparing for a scheduled review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, with the Trump administration expected to seek more concessions for US industry. The US envoy to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, recently said the Trump administration had hoped to negotiate a grander bargain with Canada than simply a renewal of the CUSMA…a deal that would have encompassed a multitude of issues, including defence, energy and autos.

– Short rapeseed crop may put China in a bind… The USDA says China s rapeseed crop might be vastly smaller than official estimates. The China National Grain & Oils Information Center forecasts 2025-26 rapeseed production at 17.1 MMT, up slightly from 17 MMT the previous year. Private sector contacts continue to maintain that China s actual rapeseed production may be considerably lower than Beijing s official number based on their estimates of the operational pace and capacity of crushing plants in their respective regions, the USDA s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) stated in its recent China Oilseeds and Products Update. One leading industry source estimates that China s rapeseed production is as low as 12.4 MMT.

Not a surprise that the Chinese government number is much bigger than what the industry is forecasting. China has a vested interest in inflating its production estimate because it is waging an oilseed trade war with Canada and the United States and does not want other exporters thinking it is short supplies. FAS is going with something between the two extremes, estimating the crop at 15.9 MMT.

– Strong Canadian lentil crop… Canada’s official lentil production estimate from StatCan jumped by a significant 12% in September, adding 317,000 tonnes to the global supply and creating an undeniable oversupply situation. Canadian crop quality is seen as quite good, but strong production from competitors like Australia and Russia has caused prices to drop steeply.

The massive crop forces traders to rely heavily on demand from India, where Canada has already seen its market share fall to just 49%. Industry experts forecast sustained price pressure and significant carryover stock for 2025.

Whatever the final numbers, one thing is for certain: this year is a big year for lentils across North America. US lentil production is forecast to have risen 22% YoY, according to the USDA, totalling approximately 503,000 tonnes. But Canada will be the true bumper crop. The September StatCan estimate projects 2.972 MMT of production compared to its August estimate of 2.655 MMT…a jump of 317,000 tonnes in total.

In the last few months, red lentil prices have been down around 18-20%, and green lentil prices have been down around 27-30%. With good production prospects coming from Australia and Russia, prices are likely to remain under pressure in the near term.

– Pea prices are falling in China… In September, the price for the legume (DAP Qingdao delivery) dropped from 2,300 yuan to 2,000 yuan/tonne. Sergey Fedorenko of the Kasen Trading Group says China is gradually reducing pea imports. For example, in 2023, China imported 2.65 MMT of the legume, while in 2024…1.39 MMT. However, in the first seven months of this year, pea imports reached 942,000 tonnes, which is higher than the same period last year (722,000t).

Fedorenko explained that amid the general economic slowdown in China, food production has decreased. Demand for peas as a feed crop for poultry has also declined. Another factor is the large pea stocks in China, which are affecting both price and demand.

Russia and Canada remain the main suppliers of peas to China. However, China has introduced 100% duties on Canadian peas, and at the moment, Chinese processors are buying the legume from Canada in small volumes under special permits. Fedorenko added that this season Canada has shifted its focus to supplying peas to India, which has removed import duties on the legume until March 31, 2026.

– Argentine wheat yields near historic highs… Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat yields are nearing historic highs thanks to abundant soil moisture, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said, hiking its harvest estimate up to 22 MMT. Argentina is a major world supplier of wheat, and abundant rainfall in recent months has left ample water reserves in the South American country’s fertile soils. Argentina produced a record wheat crop of 22.4 MMT in 2021/22. Farmers are set to begin harvesting in November.

Also benefiting from moist soils, corn farmers have now planted 19.8% of the 19.3 million acres of corn expected to be sown for the 2025/26 season, the exchange said. It estimates that Argentine farmers will produce a record 58 MMT of corn this season, 9 MMT more than last cycle. The country is the world’s third-largest corn exporter.

– US government will provide financial support to soybean farmers… US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the federal government will support American farmers amid China s refusal to buy US soybeans and that an announcement would be made on Tuesday. American farmers overwhelmingly voted for President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, Bessent said, adding he met with Trump and Ag Secretary Rollins in the Oval Office Wednesday to discuss a strategy to help US farmers, especially soybean farmers. The Wall Street Journal reported the administration is considering providing US $10 billion or more in aid to American farmers as the agriculture sector has warned of the economic fallout from US tariffs.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 238.56 points on Friday to settle at 46,758.28, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.44 of a point to 6,715.79. Early Monday, the December Dow Jones Futures are up 103 points.

Japanese stocks hit a record high and French stocks dipped on Monday as political news in both countries drove stock and forex market moves. Wall Street futures are higher. Canada s TSX stock index futures are also up.

The resilience in equities came despite the US government shutdown showing little signs of resolution, underscoring strong investor appetite for tech stocks and an increased focus on the upcoming earnings season for clues about the state of the US economy.

In Europe, French assets slid after new Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu resigned amid mounting pressure from leftist lawmakers over his budget plans, thrusting the euro zone s second-largest economy deeper into crisis.

Japan s Nikkei closed 4.75% higher after soaring to a record high above 48,000 for the first time ever on news that the ruling government party elected fiscal and monetary dove Sanae Takaichi as leader, putting her on course to become prime minister. Takaichi was an ally of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and is expected to carry on with his market-friendly policies since she backed his traditionalist vision for the country.

The December US Dollar Index is up 0.545 at 97.960. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.67 US cents.

Nov crude oil futures are up $0.48 at US $61.36/barrel. Oil prices rose after OPEC+ s planned production increase for November was more modest than expected. The OPEC+ oil cartel agreed to raise its collective production by a modest 137,000 barrels/day, following some traders fears of a much larger increase.

Crude has fallen this year on concern worldwide output will top demand over the next few months, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a record annual surplus for 2026.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 2 cents/bu higher to start this morning. Nov beans are up 2 cents at $10.20/bu, with its 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages all clustered just above between $10.24 to $10.28/bu. This is the immediate overhead resistance zone.

Soymeal futures are flat this morning, with Dec contract up $4/ton last week. Soyoil futures are 25 to 29 points higher this morning, getting back Friday s losses, with Dec bean oil down 14 points on the week ended Friday.

The ability of bean futures to move up last week was about solely on Trump tweeting he would talk to Chna s President Xi at month end. The bean market fell for it again…perhaps it was the artificially unintelligent algorithms that fell for the same old schtick from the US president. Will the supposed Trump-Xi meeting near month-end change anything? Doubtful. MAGA-world trade actions are losing the US soybean market into China…and they still just don t get it.

Traders are watching US harvest activity, along with planting conditions in South America. Brazil’s soybean planting progress is the fastest in five years. Producers have a limited window to plant soybeans if they want to double-crop with cotton or corn in early 2026.

Soybeans are caught between politics and fundamentals. US harvest pressure is real, Brazil s planting is rolling, and Argentina unleashed fresh export competition (last week). Unless Trump Xi headlines bring surprises, rallies are likely capped by global supply momentum and heavy seasonal pressure.

Chicago corn futures are near unchanged this morning…oscillating between fractional gains and losses…currently less than a penny weaker. The corn market closed Friday s session down 2 to 3 cents/bu after early back and forth trade. Dec corn was down 3 cents last week…feeling harvest pressure that has rolled along the past week with few hiccups. Progress the next week is looking spottier.

US government reporting is down this week due to the government shutdown…weekly commitment of traders report, weekly crop progress report this afternoon, and Thursday s monthly supply/demand report also likely to be suspended.

On Friday, two separate firms lowered their US national average corn yield estimates for 2025 to the 185-186 bu/acre range, both down from the previous USDA estimate in the September report. Southern Rust is reportedly reducing yields in harvested cornfields in Iowa. Rain could slow Midwest harvest activity this week, with dry weather returning the following week.

USDA s larger than expected 2024-25 marketing year US corn stocks report was a bearish surprise for corn futures last week, although good US demand has been the reason for the market not falling apart.

AgRural estimates the Brazilian first corn crop at 40% planted as of Thursday in the center south region. Argentina s corn planting is estimated at 20% according to Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, up from 12% last week.

US wheat markets are trying to poke slightly higher this morning…spring wheat futures up fractionally to a penny, and HRW/SRW wheat up 1 to 2 cents. The US wheat complex posted mixed trade on Friday, with the hard red contracts weaker. Minnie spring wheat futures were fractionally lower at the close, with the Dec contract losing 8 cents on the week.

Technically, wheat markets are considered very oversold and may start attracting bargain-buying interest from speculators. But wheat prices still face price pressure due to sufficient global supply. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 93% of the country’s wheat crop is in good-to-excellent condition, with yields expected to push record levels so far.

Canadian wheat exports for the week ended Sept 28 (Week 8) were very strong at 841,800 tonnes, which pushed total exports in the crop year to date to 3.15 MMT. The wheat export pace is 471,400 tonnes ahead of last year at this time. This is the strongest export wheat export pace since the 3.22 MMT shipped during the 2020-21 crop year.

Big US wheat stocks, rapid Canadian exports, and strong EU/Aussie/Argy crops leave little room for rallies. But demand is creeping back in as prices get cheap enough to tempt buyers (Saudi, Taiwan, more to follow). Demand for our spring wheat is strong enough to keep Prairie cash basis doing the heavy lifting…strongest basis of the past year.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures ended lower on Friday, dropping with the Chicago soy complex. Both soybeans and canola saw seasonal harvest pressure. European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were also lower on the day, while Canada s slow early canola export pace added further pressure.

November canola lost $8.80 on Friday to close at $605/tonne, and January was down $8.70 at $618.10.

For today… canola futures are trading $1 to $2/tonne higher this morning, regaining a small portion of Friday s and last week s losses. Nv canola is up $2.50 at $607.50/tonne…still very much in a downtrend drawn off its June high, with the 20-day moving average still above at $620.

Modest CBOT soybean and soyoil gains this morning is providing some underlying support for canola futures. Dec bean oil still holding the line at 50.00 US cents/lbs is good for canola…assuming it continues to hold. EU rapeseed futures are slightly higher (though near recent lows), while palm oil is slightly weaker.

Prairie harvest selling pressure is likely starting to subside.

Crushers continue to accumulate supplies for fall delivery positions…though pushing sales to December onward. Exports have slowed, although a couple elevators are tossing out specials for nearby. Not overly exciting, but it s something if you need the movement or cash flow.

Canola exports remained slow for the week ended Sept 28 (Week 8) at 88,200 tonnes, which pushed the crop year to date total to only 715,600 tonnes. This is 1.05 MMT behind last year’s pace but still ahead of the pace set in 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24. Export forecasts remain lower than last year at 7.0 to 7.1 MMT, but the current pace is not sufficient to reach that total. The export pace needs to nearly double in order to meet the current export projections.

Unfortunately, the weekly commitment of traders report is not available due to the ongoing US government shutdown…leaves the market guessing what the spec fund crowd is doing in canola and other commodity futures.

The canola market continues to struggle between solid domestic demand and sluggish exports. Crushers are keeping disappearance strong, but without China back in the mix, exports will likely remain muted. Futures flirting with sub-$600 shows just how heavy the tone is. Any rallies are more about soybean spillover than canola strength.