AM Market Report – October 30, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are trading $2 to $3/tonne lower this morning…though have traded either side of unchanged through the morning hours.

Chicago soybeans were weaker in overnight trade, but have turned higher this morning…showing gains of 10 to 15 cents/bu on the front month contracts and hovering at 15-month highs. Some confused trade sentiment this morning from the much talked about the US-China trade truce of sorts agreed to yesterday by US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. More details in the story items further below. Did China commit to ramping up purchase commitments of US soybeans or not. Right now, there trade thinks so, but details are mighty shaky.

Prairie Weather

A low pressure system is slowly moving across central Saskatchewan this morning which is bringing light rains to eastern Saskatchewan and…

CBOT corn futures are fractionally mixed but leaning slightly weaker this morning after hitting a four-month high in early overnight trading. Corn traders still see demand driving prices, with strong US export inspections and weekly ethanol production.

US wheat markets are pushing lower…spring wheat futures losing 3 to 4 cents, while the winter wheats are down 4 to 7 cents.

In Other News

– US Senate passes bill to terminate Trump tariffs against Brazil…Canada next?… In a rare and refreshing bout of sanity, the Republican-led US Senate passed legislation on Tuesday that would overturn President Donald Trump’s tariffs against Brazil by terminating the national emergency he declared in July in childish retaliation for Brazil’s prosecution of its former president, Jair Bolsonaro, for an alleged coup attempt. In the first of three tariff bills expected in the Senate this week, lawmakers approved the Brazil measure 52-48, with five Republicans crossing partisan lines to back the legislation.

Legislative measures to terminate Trump’s tariffs on Canada and his tariffs against other countries around the globe are expected to come up for votes later this week.

But that s where the good news likely ends as the vote now sends the Brazil measure on to Trump s lap-dog Republican-controlled US House of Representatives, where it is expected to be shelved. House Republicans have repeatedly voted to block action on any legislation to end Trump’s tariffs.

The Senate action came while Trump is on a five-day trip to Malaysia, Japan and South Korea and is meeting with China’s Xi Jinping for trade talks on today.

Senate Democrats, who contend that Trump has used bogus emergency declarations to justify some of his tariffs, have pledged to force repeated votes to undo the trade actions as prices on affected goods and commodities rise, hurting American consumers.

In April, the Senate passed legislation to end Trump’s tariffs against Canada, but rejected another measure to rein in his global tariffs. Both were voted down in the House.

– I had very good conversation with all the presidents. ... Prime Minister Mark Carney found himself across the dinner table from Donald Trump at the South Korean hosted Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit yesterday…a bit of an awkward spot, given the US President s continued fury over Ontario s Reagan-quoting, anti-tariff television ad.

Trump said he had a very nice conversation with Carney, despite the latest increase in trade tensions between the two neighboring nations. Trump made his remarks on Air Force One today after departing South Korea.

Carney s office noted the encounter in a statement late Wednesday: The Prime Minister had constructive conversations on various topics of interest with all participants, including the President of the United States .

Last week Trump broke off trade talks with Canada and threatened to hike punitive tariffs on Canadian imports by 10% over the Ontario government sponsored TV ad.

– India levies 30% import duty on yellow peas… The yellow pea market just received another gut punch. India has imposed a 30% duty on yellow pea imports with a bill of lading date on or after Oct 31, 2025. The government had earlier allowed duty-free imports of yellow peas until March 31, 2026, but domestic farmers had urged authorities to curb the influx of competitively priced imports that were pressuring local prices. The South Asian nation is the world’s biggest importer of yellow peas, which it imports mainly from Canada and Russia.

This is very bad news as Canada desperately needed the Indian market for peas because it is currently shut out of China. Canada is now facing trade-reducing tariffs in both of its top markets. China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian peas in March in response to Canada s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminum.

The trade barriers are taking a toll on yellow pea prices, which are already down 34% from a year ago. Last I checked, the average medium No. 1 yellow pea bid in Saskatchewan was $6.95/bu and as high as $7.33/bu in Alberta…as of yesterday.

There are markets for split peas in the United States and other countries, but Canada does not have a lot of processing capacity. Without our two key export markets, much more peas will have no choice but head into the feed market.

– China vows to boost US farm trade but leaves details unclear… US President Donald Trump and China s President Xi Jinping met for only 90 minutes on the sidelines of this week s APEC meting in South Korea. After much build up…what did they agree to…

On agriculture… China pledged to expand farm trade with the United States and President Donald Trump said Beijing would buy “tremendous” volumes of soybeans, but details on paper are lacking. Trump told reporters after a meeting today with President Xi that China would begin buying “tremendous amounts of soybeans and other farm products immediately”. China’s commerce ministry only said it would expand agricultural trade with the United States but did not specify the scale or timing of purchases.

Nothing here sounds like a hard commitment, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this morning broke news that China agreed to buy 12 MMT of US soybeans this year. But is that speculating or something real…much confusion as Trump people have a history of overpromise and underdeliver.

Inspired by Trump s trade war with China…which began with Trump s first term and was accelerated with the start of his second term…has sent China to purchase all its soybeans from South America when it can…and shut out the US when it can. China will buy US soybeans, but only at times of its choosing. Trump s erratic trade actions have permanently soured soybean business with America s largest export market.

Fentanyl… The US will cut by half fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods.

Reciprocal tariffs… The US will also extend a pause on some reciprocal tariffs on China for an additional year.

Rare earth metals… The agreement includes China pausing sweeping controls on rare-earth magnets in exchange for the US rolling back an expansion of restrictions on Chinese companies.

Others… the two countries agreed to work together on issues such as trade, energy and artificial intelligence. But conflict persists on all these fronts.

– China could sidestep commitments in anticipated trade pact with the US...There s concern China may not follow through on certain aspects of an anticipated trade deal with the US. Michael Cordonnier with Soybean and Corn Advisor says during the first Trump administration, the Chinese did not fulfill its commitments as part of the Phase One agreement. And between then and now, which is six years later, Brazil is producing 46, 47 MMT more soybeans. So with the first Trump administration (trade war), China said we ve got to diversify our soybean sourcing.

Cordonnier noted China looked to South America and hasn t looked back. And like I said, Brazil now has almost 50 MMT more of soybean production than six years ago. And they re going to keep expanding in South America, and China is going to keep looking to South America for their soybeans.

US President Trump and Chinese President Xi are scheduled to meet in South Korea Thursday.

– Argentina oilseed union could strike next week… Argentina’s oilseed workers’ union SOEA and industry chamber CIARA are “very far” from reaching a wage deal, a SOEA leader said, warning a strike could begin next week if no agreement is reached. Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of soybean oil and meal, and unions in the sector have a history of labor disputes with companies.

CIARA has proposed adjusting union workers’ wages based on inflation data published by national statistics agency INDEC, as has been done in the past. SOEA, however, distrusts INDEC’s inflation figures and is demanding a 26% increase for the September December period.

SOEA had announced an open-ended strike earlier this month together with the Oilseed Federation Union, but the Argentine government imposed a mandatory conciliation the same day, requiring both sides to suspend the strike while talks continued. On Tuesday, Argentina’s labor secretariat extended the conciliation period until the morning of Thursday, November 6. If no agreement is reached, SOEA may resume strike actions.

– EV battery production adding pressure to global phosphate supply...The CEO of phosphate fertilizer producer Itafos says the rise in popularity of electric vehicles (EVs) is a contributing factor in the increase farmers are seeing in phosphate prices. David Delaney says the mineral is crucial to the production of lithium-ion phosphate (LFP) batteries. If you re making phosphoric acid, you need phosphate rock, and through phosphoric acid, you can make fertilizer. He says, But you can also further upgrade to make purified phosphoric acid, and that s one of the key ingredients to make LFP batteries.

Delaney says China, the world s largest phosphate producer, has significantly decreased its phosphate exports in part because of its shift to EVs. China today is looking at really protecting their farmers, ensuring that they have enough phosphate, knowing the reserve life is declining, and they re also really committed to LFP batteries.

Delaney says it s another variable driving phosphate demand in a limited global supply.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 74.37 points lower on Wednesday to settle at 47,632.0, while the S&P 500 ticked down 0.30 of a point to 6,890.59. Early Thursday, the December Dow Jones Futures are down 188 points.

Global stock markets are generally weaker this morning after US President Donald Trump said he had made a soft deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping on rare earths and tariffs. The meeting represents a tactical pause or temporary de-escalation, rather than a structural breakthrough. A shift in tone, particularly from Trump, could quickly reignite tariff threats and trigger risk-off sentiment.

Wall Street futures were in negative territory ahead of more Big Tech earnings and after US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said another interest-rate cut in December was far from assured.

Canada s TSX stock index futures were little changed after the Bank of Canada also cautioned that yesterday s rate cut could be its last move of the current easing cycle.

The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday but signalled that it might be at the end of its easing cycle even as US tariffs inflict significant and lasting damage on the Canadian economy. The bank s governing council voted to lower the policy rate by a quarter-percentage-point to 2.25%. This was the bank s second consecutive cut, and the fourth cut this year.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve, as expected, also cut its key interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point Wednesday afternoon, but Chair Jerome Powell surprised market participants by signaling that another cut in December isn t a sure thing. A further reduction in the policy rate in December is not a foregone conclusion, far from it, Powell told reporters in a news conference following the two-day meeting of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

The December US Dollar Index is up 0.398 at 98.980. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.43 US cents.

Dec crude oil futures are down $0.61 at US $59.87/barrel. Oil prices eased despite Trump s limp tariff war truce with China after his meeting with Xi amid skepticism it marked an end to the trade war.

The market can now see it for what it is, sans all the build-up and political window-dressing, said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights. It s nothing more than a pause in fighting and minor de-escalation that was being touted as a trade deal .

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading a surprising 10 to 15 cents/bu higher on the front month contracts this morning after a wild overnight that saw January beans swing a 44 cent range. Futures rounded out Wednesday s trade with contracts within 2 cents of unchanged. Soymeal futures are mostly up $3 to $6/ton this morning, continuing its torrid rally off contract lows in October. Soyoil futures are being left behind…sagging another 21 to 29 points lower this morning, struggling to maintain support at the 50 US cent/lbs level on the nearby Dec contract.

Following the Trump/Xi meeting overnight, China has reportedly made commitments to buy 12 MMT of US soybeans for this year, and subsequent 25 MMT commitments per year for the next 3 years, according to US Secretary Treasury Scott Bessent. That sounds confusing though as the Chinese have so far said nothing of such detail. These are no actual sales until business is truly done.

All we now for certain right now, COFCO bought 3 US soybean cargoes off the PNW (180,000 tonnes) according to Reuters, which seems like a friendly gesture in their first purchase this marketing year, but does that mean anything unless Xi and China commit to something much bigger and more concrete?

It remains to be seen how many US soybeans China needs over the next couple of months, following the recent strong demand from Brazil, and to an extent, Argentina. South America s next harvest availability comes in February.

Rabobank estimates the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production to total 177 MMT, with planted acreage up 2% to 120.5 million acres.

Chicago corn futures are fractionally mixed this morning. The corn market closed out Wednesday with contracts steady to 2 cents higher. Traders are still weighing what reports of less-than-expected US harvest yields mean for this market.

Following the meeting between Trump and Xi, Trump posted that China is set to purchase massive amounts of sorghum, though no specifics were given.

EIA data from Wednesday morning showed US ethanol production totaling 1.091 million barrels per day on average for the week ended Oct 24. That was a 21,000 bpd drop from the week prior. Stocks of ethanol saw a build of 448,000 barrels to 22.367 million barrels.

Estimates for the Brazilian crop from Rabobank show the Brazilian corn crop at 137 MMT for 2025/26.

US wheat markets are under pressure this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are down 3 to 4 cents, HRW losing 5 to 6 cents and SRW wheat is 4 to 5 cents lower. The US wheat complex was mixed on Wednesday, with winter wheat the strongest, while spring wheat futures saw weaker trade at yesterday s close, down 1 to 2 cents.

The rising global wheat supply continues to be a bearish background factor, and Argentina now has the lowest price wheat on the export market. Precipitation in Australia is seen as favorable for most of the later planted wheat crop, and recent rainfall should benefit winter wheat in the US and Black Sea adjacent parts of Russia and Ukraine.

Nearby Minnie Dec spring wheat futures are 4 cents lower this morning at $5.56/bu, and slipping further back from its recent test up to its 50 day moving average ($5.65) the past three sessions and failed on each occasion. This means that the recent rally is likely not to be sustained for any length of time. Spring wheat remains in a funk.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures posted minor gains on Wednesday, despite increases in the Chicago soy complex evaporating. Canola futures, along with US soybeans and corn, have been pushing above their harvest lows. Talk of this week s meeting between Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit in South Korea has had some positive effect on the canola market…but as of yet has yielded no policy results…just dialogue…which I guess is a start.

Canola derived additional support yesterday from upticks in EU rapeseed, although Malaysian palm oil closed lower. Moderate increases in crude oil underpinned vegetable oils.

Even with canola not closing as strong on Wednesday, the January contract remained slightly above its 50-day moving average.

January canola futures rose $2.50 on Wednesday to close at $641.30/tonne, while Mar canola edged $1.70 higher to $652.20.

For today… canola futures are down $1 to $2/tonne to start this morning. But canola has traded slightly higher at times this morning, supported by higher CBOT soybeans as traders in Chicago seem to believe the word of Trump officials that China will be buying vast quantities of US beans very soon. But heard that before…only to be disappointed.

Canola remains limited by CBOT soyoil weakness. Jan canola is down $2.20 right now $639.10/tonne, after yesterday managing to finally close over the top of the $620 to $640/mt range that’s lasted for two months now. But whether this is just a temporary upside blip or a true upside breakout…well…we just can t conclude yet.

In order to rally significantly, Canadian exports need to pick up steam or a trade agreement is reached with China.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/