AM Market Report – October 29, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

Grain and oilseed markets are experiencing some degree of corrective pullback this morning after gaining to start the week. Tuesday s mid-to-low-range closes in the grains hint the bulls may now be short-term exhausted.

ICE canola futures are trading around $1/tonne lower.

Chicago soybeans are showing early declines of 5 to 9 cents/bu after charging to 15-month highs on Tuesday. Bean bulls seem disappointed prices were not boosted further this morning by overnight reports China purchased US soybeans (see item below)…making one wonder if futures are near a short-term top. There is plenty of trade speculation about what might be discussed or offered in Thursday s Trump/Xi meeting, but only the players involved know how this will turn out…or do they?

AM Market Report – October 28, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE ICE canola futures are edging $1/tonne higher this morning…supported by…

CBOT corn futures are edging 1 to 2 cents lower this morning as farmer selling is increasing.

US wheat markets are narrowly mixed… Minnie spring wheat futures are fractionally higher, HRW fractionally to a penny lower, while SRW wheat is down 1 to 2 cents.

In Other News

– Carney conversation with Trump… Prime Minister Mark Carney said he had a very good conversation with US President Donald Trump at a dinner the two attended during an economic forum in South Korea. Asked on the sidelines of the APEC summit about how the dinner went, and whether he spoke to the president, Carney told reporters he had a very good conversation. Always pleasant. It marks the first time the pair have been in the same room since Trump cut off trade talks with Canada on Thursday.

Both leaders are attending the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum this week in South Korea, and they re among the seven world leaders invited to a dinner hosted by South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung.

Last week, Trump announced on his social media platform that he was terminating negotiations with Ottawa. Later, he threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff on Canada in response to an anti-tariff ad that was paid for by Ontario and run in the US.

Overnight, Trump also posted on Truth Social… For those that are asking, we didn t come to South Korea to see Canada!

– China buys US soybeans ahead of Trump-Xi meet… China’s state-owned COFCO bought three US soybean cargoes, the country’s first purchases from this year’s US harvest, shortly before a summit of leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. As the two nations battle over trade tariffs, the lack of Chinese buying has cost US farmers billions of dollars in lost sales, after they largely supported Trump in his campaigns for president. Although COFCO’s deal for Dec-Jan shipment of about 180,000 tonnes of soybeans was China’s first such buy in months, traders do not expect a significant resumption in demand for US cargoes after recent large South American purchases.

An unnamed trader that supplies Chinese crushers said, “The volumes booked by COFCO are not that large, three cargoes for now.” Benchmark Chicago soybean futures prices jumped this week to their highest in 15 months, rebounding from recent 5-year lows on hopes for a US-China trade deal. The prime US soybean export season normally runs from October through January, but China has shunned soybeans from the autumn US harvest this year, amid protracted trade friction with Washington, turning instead to South American suppliers. Reuters was the first to report China’s purchase of three cargoes.

China, which takes more than 60% of world soybean imports, has nearly completed booking old crop cargoes from Brazil and Argentina through November, with limited purchases expected for December and January ahead of the next Brazilian harvest. “US suppliers have missed out on most of oilseed crushing business,” said a second oilseed trader, who expected China to need about 5 MMT of shipments in December and January, for which market conditions favour Brazil.

– Canadian GM canola will soon be allowed into Pakistan again… Canada’s Market Access Secretariat announced that on October 22, Pakistan s regulatory agency approved the registration of several genetically modified (GM) canola events. Import licenses for GM canola seed are expected to be issued to Pakistani importers in the coming weeks, re-establishing market access for Canadian canola seed exports and allowing shipments to resume shortly thereafter. Canada lost access in the fall of 2022, when Pakistan suddenly began enforcing its 2005 Biosafety Rules with no advance notice.

This latest development reflects the success of coordinated advocacy efforts by Agriculture Canada, Global Affairs Canada (GAC) and the High Commission of Canada in Islamabad.

– China and ASEAN sign upgraded free trade pact… China and the ASEAN bloc of Southeast Asian nations signed an upgrade to their free trade agreement on Tuesday, with leaders hailing the deal which spans the digital and green economy, and other new industries. The 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations is China’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade totalling $771 billion last year, according to ASEAN statistics. China is seeking to intensify its engagement with ASEAN, a region with a collective gross domestic product of $3.8 trillion, to counter hefty import tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump’s administration on countries around the world.

“We must accelerate trade and investment liberalization and facilitation and strengthen industrial integration and interdependence,” Chinese Premier Li Qiang said at the ASEAN leaders’ meeting on Tuesday. Beijing has been seeking to position itself as a more open economy, despite criticism from other major powers of its expanding export restrictions on rare earths and other critical minerals.

– US biofuel capacity growth slowed last year… Capacity growth for US biofuel production slowed in 2024, the US Energy Information Administration said in a report. It found that production capacity rose by a modest 3% from the start of 2024 to the start of 2025, based on the agency s latest biofuels production capacity reports.

Most of the slowdown was due to a deceleration in production capacity in renewable diesel and other biofuels. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable naphtha, and renewable propane make virtually all other biofuels, the EIA said.

US production capacity for renewable diesel and other biofuels increased just 391 million gallons a year in 2024, less than a third of the growth seen in 2022 and 2023, the report said. Only two capacity additions came online in 2024, both in California: Phillips 66 s conversion of its Rodeo refinery to exclusively produce biofuels and a new Renewable Fuels LLC plant in Bakersfield. The conversion gave the Rodeo plant a capacity of 767 million gallons a year, up from 180 million the previous year, and makes it the second-largest renewable diesel plant in the US after Diamond Green Diesel s 982 million gallon-a-year plant in Norco, Louisiana.

Growth from the Rodeo expansion and the 138 million gallon-a-year Bakersfield plant was partially offset by the loss of capacity at four facilities, the EIA noted: Monroe Energy and Chevron stopped co-processing renewable diesel at their Trainer, Pennsylvania, and El Segundo, California, refineries, respectively; Vertex Energy closed its Mobile, Alabama, plant and Jaxon Energy closed its Jackson, Mississippi facility.

– Kazakhstan harvested 26.9 MMT of grain… Kazakhstan, the largest grain producer in Central Asia, has harvested 26.9 MMT of grain from the new harvest, as of October 28, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Approximately 39.3 million acres of grain and legumes have been harvested, accounting for 99.2% of the total area.

Kazakhstan had forecast a grain harvest of 24 MMT this year. In 2024, Kazakhstan harvested a record 26.7 MMT of grain, including 18 MMT of wheat, the highest in the past 10 years.

Kazakhstan traditionally supplies grain to neighbouring Central Asian countries, as well as Iran and Afghanistan.

– Ukraine 2025 sunseed crop may fall to 9.5 MMT… Ukraine’s 2025 sunflower seed harvest may fall to 9.5 MMT from 10.2 MMT in 2024 if rainy weather unfavourable for harvesting persists, the country’s major farmers union UAC said. Ukraine is the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter and a large European grower of soybeans. The market forecasts 10.2 to 10.8 MMT (of sunseed) while we started the season with the forecast of 13 MMT. But if precipitation continues, we could theoretically harvest 9.5 MMT,” UAC said in a weekly report. UAC said that delays in harvesting and low yields will result in both lower sunflower oil production and lower exports.

– Global phosphate supply constraints expected to keep prices elevated...The CEO of phosphate fertilizer producer Itafos says farmers are likely to continue to face elevated costs. David Delaney says it s an issue of global supply and demand. It s really a lack of new global capacity, and then declining ore reserves in Florida, and then China, which only has about 30 years of reserves, has really backed away from the export market, he says.

He says US phosphate production is also dwindling. In 1990, capacity was right at 11 MMT, and today actual operating rates are around 5.3 MMT. So, it s been cut in half. He says, The ability to get permitted in any jurisdiction in the US has been difficult.

Delaney added the long-term outlook isn t much better. There s not a lot of new capacity coming online in the next five years, and then the deficit really grows in the 2030s, he says. He believes no new US phosphate production is expected in the next five years, and only two projects are anticipated globally…one in Saudi Arabia and one in Morocco.

– Grain farming s hard times expected to continue… Sean Pratt of the Western Producer writes that North American grain farmers will have to wait awhile before they see break-even conditions, says a banker. We ll probably have another two years of this, said Steve Nicholson, global strategist of grains and oilseeds with Rabobank. Grain prices are unlikely to rally much due to a global glut of the major crops. We have monster supplies, he told reporters attending the bank s Fall Harvest Outlook webinar. Nicholson said it is hard to come up with an outlook for the sector in an environment of trade spats, tariffs and shifting government policy.

Nicholson suspects it will be a supply-side shock that jolts the market out of the current doldrums rather than a demand-side shock. He did point out that while global stocks of major crops are in the top 10% of all-time, the stocks-to-use ratio has been falling every year since 2018-19, a sign that the increase in stocks is not keeping up with the increase in demand.

However, Nicholson said there will probably be two more crop years of losses before farmers once again break even in 2027-28. That is partially because input costs have been stickier than usual. They are coming down, but not fast enough.

But US farmers are not doing enough to cut back on inputs, partially because they will be receiving about $40 billion in government payments in 2025, which will be close to the largest subsidy program on record.

– Call for export sales reporting system… I ve been saying we need this for many years. Now Saskatchewan farm groups are calling on the federal government to establish a national grain export sales reporting system to improve market transparency. The Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan (APAS) and SaskCrops said producers here are at a significant information disadvantage compared to competitors in the US and European Union, where export sales reporting systems are already in place. Those systems provide farmers with timely, destination-specific data on grain sales, enabling better market forecasting and pricing decisions.

Enhanced data transparency would improve demand forecasting, operational planning and logistical efficiency for grain companies, processors and transportation providers, making Canada s grain supply chain more resilient and making us a more reliable trading partner, the release said.

Under the proposed system, the federal government would publish regular updates on large and cumulative export sales of major grains to specific global destinations…mirroring the USDA s long-standing weekly reports.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 161.78 points on Tuesday to settle at 47,706.37, while the S&P 500 rose 15.73 points to 6,890.89. Early Wednesday, the December Dow Jones Futures are up another 148 points.

Global stock markets searched for direction as investors braced for a busy day headlined by US Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada interest-rate decisions and earnings from technology heavyweights.

Wall Street stock index futures were mixed overnight but turning slightly higher now into this morning after the three major US stock indexes closed at fresh record highs yesterday, buoyed by an AI rally including chip giant Nvidia. TSX futures were flat ahead of the Bank of Canada interest-rate announcement later this morning. The central bank is expected to make another quarter-point cut to 2.25%.

With the Magnificent Seven tech titans Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta reporting earnings, there are lofty expectations for them to deliver strong results that would justify stretched valuations. Expectations are sky-high, and the bar for disappointment is high as well. Investors want to see not just solid numbers, but evidence of sustained AI monetization and broadening demand beyond the initial boom. That s where the market will judge if this AI boom is becoming a bubble or not.

The December US Dollar Index is up 0.147 at 98.600. The Canadian dollar eased against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.79 US cents.

Dec crude oil is up $0.06 at US $60.21/barrel. Oil prices were steady on a decline in US crude inventories and optimism over a meeting between the leaders of the US and China, the world s two largest oil consumers.

The surprise draws on inventory in the US helped prices this morning, but the interplay of sanctions risks and OPEC+ s posture is driving markets. That doesn t mean the rally has unlimited upside. Because while the sanctions/supply story has been built up, the demand side still shows softness and spare capacity remains.

Grain Markets

After running steeply higher the past two weeks to 15-month highs, Chicago soybean futures are taking a corrective pause this morning…trading 5 to 9 cents/bu lower. Bean futures on Tuesday posted 4 to 11 cent gains across the board, though contracts did fall off their intraday highs. Soymeal futures are edging less than $1/ton higher this morning…but rallying strongly this month. Soyoil futures are falling 46 to 59 points, adding to yesterday s 16 to 51 point losses…with the Dec contract now dropping below the 50 cent/lbs level.

Ahead of Thursday s Trump/Xi meeting, China has been rumored to purchase at least 180,000 tonnes of US soybeans. We won t know the exact totals anytime soon due to the US government shutdown restricting the USDA s weekly export sales report data and daily sale announcements.

China is typically the top buyer of US soybeans by a huge margin. In 2023-24, the US shipped nearly 25 MMT of soybeans to China, while a mere 4.9 MMT were exported to No. 2 buyer, the European Union. Prior to the 2018 trade war, the US shipped an average of $12.8 billion worth of soybeans to China per marketing year.

This month, trade sources say China still needed to purchase soybeans for Dec-Jan shipment after covering cargoes through November with hefty purchases of South American beans. Brazil, the world s biggest supplier, will harvest its next crop around February.

Talk is China continues to book Brazilian soybean cargoes for Dec-Mar shipment. But it appears China still has 5+ MMT of required soybean purchases to bridge the gap to Brazil s new crop, so China still has a supply requirement which could be transferred to the US…regardless of any trade deal done between Trump/Xi. But the trade has already built in some very high expectations of a deal getting done…and better not disappoint.

Chicago corn futures are easing 1 to 2 cents lower this morning. Like in beans, the corn market finished Tuesday s session off its midday highs, but still in the green…closing fractionally to 3 cents higher. Dec corn is down a penny this morning at $4.31/bu…trending higher of late but struggling still to convincingly clear chart resistance around the $4.30 level.

Fundamentally, the news of a US-Japan trade deal underpins the market. Japan, already a large buyer of US corn, has agreed to buy $8 billion worth of US agricultural goods, including corn. There are also trade deal frameworks established this week with a handful of southeast Asian countries that could boost corn, ethanol, and DDG demand. That said…aside from China, and including Japan…most of the trade deal frameworks reached over the past few days are with countries that already buy US corn or corn products to some degree. So, we are not sure these deals translate into real new business.

Meantime, corn planting and development conditions in South America look favorable and the US harvest is probably more than 70% complete. AgRural says 36% of Brazil s first corn crop has been planted.

US wheat markets are mixed this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are maintaining fractional gains, but the winter wheats are easing fractionally to 2 cents lower. The US wheat complex closed higher across the three exchanges on Tuesday…spring wheat futures posting 1 to 2 cent gains at the close…bouncing higher in the past week off contract lows.

Rain in the southern US Plains, where winter wheat planting is nearing completion, is pressuring winter wheat futures this morning.

Canada and US wheat exports for the marketing year are off to a strong start…robust demand amid cheap prices as Economics 101 would suggest. But there s a lot of competition out there, and Argentina is now the lowest priced wheat on the global market.

Traders continue to monitor wheat crop conditions in Argentina and Australia, and planting and winter wheat development weather in the US, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

Strength in Chicago soybeans buoyed ICE canola futures on Tuesday. Soybeans posted double-digit advances for the second straight session Tuesday on hopes the US and China will be able to clinch a trade deal when the leaders of the two countries meet at the APEC Summit in South Korea on Thursday. US officials say a framework of the deal could see China buy substantial quantities of American soybeans. We ll see.

Hopes that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney may be able to make some progress on trade when he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit also supported canola. Chinese imports of Canadian canola seed, oil, and meal continue to be subject to hefty Chinese tariffs, essentially shutting down trade.

On the other hand, Chicago soyoil finished lower yesterday, as did Malaysian palm oil. European rapeseed was mainly higher.

November canola finished $5.50 higher yesterday at $624.70/tonne, and January was $4.80 higher at $638.80.

For today… canola futures are being pulled correctively lower this morning with the CBOT soybeans and weakening soyoil. Bean oil is lower on continued unwinding of the spread with bullish soymeal and a consolidation in energy markets.

Canola futures are currently posted modest $1/tonne declines. The benchmark Jan canola contract is down $1.10 this morning at $637.70/tonne…still trending slightly higher so far this month but right now confined in a tight range between support at its 20-day moving average ($629) and overhead resistance at the 50-day ($638).

Malaysian palm oil futures was weaker again in what has been a steep slide over the past week to its lowest levels since early August….with double top indications on the price chart. In top producer Indonesia, palm oil output could rise to around 56 MMT this year, higher than earlier projections, data from the country s palm oil association GAPKI showed. Meanwhile, demand prospects dimmed as winter approaches, when palm oil consumption in key buyers such as India and China typically slows.

On the feed grains… MarketsFarm reporter Adam Peleshaty writes that feed grain prices will trade rangebound in the short-term amidst a lack of demand. Darcy Haley, vice president of Ag Value Brokers, described the harvest in southern Alberta as phenomenal as crops were assisted by heavy rains in June and July. He added that yields in the Calgary area were at their highest in seven or eight years .

I wouldn t call it a bumper crop, but it was very close. Very, very good crops in Alberta (this year), Haley said. For the most part, other than in southwest Saskatchewan, I haven t heard a lot of negatives at all when it comes to crop production.

However, warmer temperatures led to an extended grass season for livestock, meaning cattle entered feedlots later than usual. Instead of facing feed shortages due to drought as seen in the past few years, there is very little need for more feed.

Domestic buyers are generally well-covered with ample supplies, while lightweight cattle don t need very much grain to start, said Haley, adding that feedlots are only willing to pay so much while you have a farmer who is not liking the price, period.

Buyers and sellers are usually about $5 to $10/tonne apart, and Haley said nobody moves unless somebody absolutely has to have it or somebody has to move it.

He was blunt in his assessment of where prices will go over the next few weeks. Flat, he said. They re not going to do much of anything. I think they ll stay flat for quite a while.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/