AM Market Report – October 27, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are trading mostly $4 to $6/tonne higher to start this morning, drawing most of its support from strong rally gains in the soy complex south of the border. The canola was little changed last week, with the benchmark Jan contract rising $2.20/tonne for the week ended Friday

Chicago soybean futures are charging 15 to 23 cents/bu higher on the front month contracts this morning in knee-jerk reaction to claims the US and China have tentatively agreed to a framework bargain to stave off their trade war. There are no details, and as of yet no Chinese commitment to restart purchases of US soybeans. But in typical US overhyping, there is great expectation that a deal may be coming later this week when the White House claims Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will meet on the sidelines Thursday at the APEC Summit in South Korea. Worth noting…Beijing has yet to even confirm such a meeting will take place.

Prairie Weather

A low pressure system moving up from the Dakota’s into the eastern Prairies this morning. The heaviest rains are currently…

Chicago corn futures are 4 to 7 cents higher this morning, following the lead of a rallying soy complex.

US wheat markets are also higher…winter wheats up 9 to 14 cents, while Minnie spring wheat futures are 7 to 9 cents higher…also following soybeans upwards.

Grain market bulls are displaying greater confidence ag prices can continue to trend sideways to higher in the coming weeks…though Trump better deliver something on Thursday to match the current state of market hype on a trade deal with China…or at least confirm the Asian giant will restart purchases of US soybeans.

Meanwhile, the state of Canada-US relations is in turmoil after US President Trump s bully move to halt trade talks in response to an Ontario-funded TV ad featuring anti-tariff crusader Ronald Reagan…another wrinkle in already fragile trade relations.

In Other News

– Carney pitches Canada as ‘reliable’ to ASEAN as Trump threatens more tariffs… Prime Minister Mark Carney in addressing South Asian leaders on Sunday at the opening of the ASEAN Summit highlighted the importance of working reliable partners who honour their commitments. The subtle jabs were delivered against a backdrop of rising rhetoric and tariff threats by US President Donald Trump, who is threatening to impose further 10% duties on Canadian goods in a childish retaliation for the Ontario government s television ads rightly quoting former president Ronald Reagan s criticism of tariffs.

Carney reiterated his position that Canada will carry on and be ready whenever the US wants to resume trade negotiations.

Carney s address in Malaysia early Sunday was part pitch for freer trade with the ASEAN block of nations (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and part veiled reference to the worsening relations with the United States. We have all been reminded of the importance of reliable partners who honour their commitments, who are there in tough times, and who engage collaboratively to fix something that isn t working, Carney told the leaders of the 11 nations gathered around the table in the Malaysian capital. Canada is such a partner, a dependable partner, and I have come to Kuala Lumpur to say clearly that we want to play a bigger role in this region.

The Liberal government is pushing ahead with free trade negotiations at ASEAN, hoping to conclude a deal next year.

“Like ASEAN, Canada values the rules-based system. We respect trade agreements and the rule of law, Carney said in remarks that could also be interpreted as being directed at Trump. We believe in the value of the free exchange of goods, capital, and ideas. He added that the world is now undergoing a fundamental shift more a rupture than a transition.

The latest Trump flare-up over a TV commercial underscores how political friction not trade fundamentals increasingly shapes North American economic relations, with implications for both market stability and future cooperation.

– Carney targets non-US exports by 2035… Prime Minister Mark Carney has set a goal to double Canada s exports to markets outside the US within a decade to net an extra $300 billion in trade. In a speech last week, Carney reiterated that US tariffs are causing job losses in major Canadian industries and businesses are holding back investments due to that uncertainty. The prime minister touted a free trade agreement with Indonesia as well as agreements with other countries, adding that the upcoming budget will be about generational investments . Ottawa is also re-engaging with India and China to deepen its partnerships. The budget is set to be unveiled on Nov. 4.

– Framework for a US-China Trade Deal?… Top US and Chinese economic officials reportedly reached a framework agreement on Sunday for a trade deal, setting the stage for what could be a decisive meeting later this week between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The accord followed a round of negotiations in Kuala Lumpur between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, and top trade negotiator Li Chenggang. It marked the fifth in-person meeting since May and came after months of escalating tariff threats, export restrictions, and market volatility that have defined relations between the world s two largest economies. Both sides are looking to de-escalate their trade war after Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.

Still, a framework is not a deal…and history urges skepticism. China has frequently used such frameworks as diplomatic tools to project cooperation while avoiding enforceable commitments. Previous preliminary consensus announcements have bought Beijing time to pursue its own strategic and commercial priorities elsewhere. As negotiations advance toward the Trump Xi summit, analysts remain cautious that China could again delay substantive action, leveraging the optics of progress to strengthen its regional and global position before making concrete concessions.

– Trade analysis: China can meet soybean needs without US… A trade analysis from North Dakota State University confirms China can get by without purchasing US soybeans in the current marketing year. Sandro Steinbach, the director of the Center for Ag Policy and Trade Studies at NDSU, says China must be willing to pay the price, absorbing some price premiums. The current Chinese soybean import premiums are around $40/tonne for Brazil, above US offers basically. That s very much below the price premium that existed between the during the 2018-19 trade war.

Steinbach says Brazil and other exporters could cover nearly all of China s soybean needs, if necessary. Primarily South American exporters: Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil. Argentina has been increasing their exports to China significantly at the same time, you also see domestic adjustments in China.

But Steinbach says the US needs China. We (the US) are at zero weekly sales to China. And the lack of demand continues to affect local soybean prices, especially in the US Northern Plains.

The US and China are scheduled to meet this week and soybeans are again expected to be discussed.

– Clean Fuels America runs the numbers on reallocation… The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing supplemental SRE (small refinery exemption) reallocation volumes to the 2026 and 2027 US Renewable Fuel Standard Volumes. Clean Fuels America shared the potential impact on US soybean farmers and processors with EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin. EPA is co-proposing to either fully (100%) or partially (50%) account for 2023-2025 small refinery exemptions granted this year by adding a supplemental volume in 2026 and 2027.

US soybean farmers and processors could lose between $3.2 billion and $7.5 billion in crop value over the next two years if the EPA doesn t completely reallocate recently exempted RFS volumes, said Clean Fuels in a letter to Zeldin. Facing Chinese tariffs and growing global competition from Argentina and Brazil, America s farmers can t afford to lose the value that US biomass-based diesel brings. A 50% reallocation will include 490 million gallons lost in biomass-based diesel production and $1.4 billion in lost farm revenue.

– Cattle producers urge Ottawa to terminate UK trade deal… The Canadian Cattle Association (CCA) is calling on Ottawa to end the Canada UK Continuity Agreement, arguing that the United Kingdom has failed to honour its commitments and continues to block Canadian beef exports. The call follows the introduction earlier this week of legislation to implement the UK s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The CCA contends that, despite repeated warnings and years of discussion, the UK has not acted to remove non-tariff barriers that prevent Canadian beef from entering its market.

Since 2023, UK beef exports to Canada have surged from $16.6 million to $42.5 million in 2024…a 156% increase…while Canadian beef exports to the UK have dropped to zero in both 2024 and 2025. From January to August 2025 alone, UK beef imports totalled $32.2 million, up 19% from the same period in 2024.

The CCA argues that the UK s ongoing refusal to accept Canada s meat inspection and production standards violates international trade rules. Specifically, the UK continues to apply the European Union s hormone-treated beef ban…despite a 1997 World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling against it…and refuses to grant full systems approval to Canada s world-class meat hygiene system.

The Continuity Agreement, enacted in April 2021 after Brexit, was meant to serve as a bridge until a permanent bilateral deal could be reached within three years. However, the UK withdrew from negotiations.

CCA leaders say terminating the continuity deal would allow both sides to restart talks on fair, rules-based trade that benefits farmers and consumers alike.

– IGC raises 2025/26 world wheat crop forecast… The International Grains Council has raised its forecast for 2025/26 global wheat production with crop outlooks upgraded for Russia, the United States and Argentina. The IGC raised its global wheat production forecast by 8 MMT to 827 MMT, a record high and up 1.1% from the prior season. An improving outlook for this year’s wheat crops has helped drive down global prices, with US wheat futures slumping to a five-year low.

The IGC said latest data had confirmed better than anticipated yields in a number of key producers. Russia’s wheat crop was forecast to total 86.5 MMT, up from a previous projection of 85 MMT. The agency also upwardly revised its forecast for the US wheat crop to 54 MMT, from 52.4 MMT, and for Argentina’s production to 22.2 MMT from 20.2 MMT.

Global wheat consumption was raised by just 1 MMT to 820 MMT, leading to a build up in stocks by the end of the season to a three-year high of 275 MMT.

The IGC also said it had kept its 2025/26 world corn crop outlook at 1.297 billion tonnes, up 4.7% from a year earlier.

Global soybean production in 2025/26 was seen at 428 MMT, marginally below the prior season’s 429 MMT and forecast consumption was expected to climb to 430 MMT, from 419 MMT a year earlier. “Total use is seen at a new peak, while stocks could tighten slightly,” the IGC said.

– Russia extends export duties on sunflower seeds, oil and meal… Russia, one of the world’s major exporters of sunflower oil, said on Friday it has extended export duties on sunflower seeds, sunflower oil and meal for another two seasons to encourage domestic processing. For sunflower seeds, the export customs duty will remain at 50%, but not less than 32,000 roubles/tonne. For sunflower oil and sunflower meal, a “floating” duty rate will continue to apply.

“The decision is aimed at stimulating the processing of oilseeds within the country, maintaining stable pricing on the domestic food market, and ensuring the availability of sunflower oil for the population and sunflower meal for the livestock industry,” a government statement said. The duties were previously valid until August 31, 2026, or until the end of the current export season. Now they will remain in effect until August 2028.

Russia exported 5.1 MMT of sunflower oil in the 2024/25 season, and exports in the new season could reach around 5.2-5.3 MMT, according to industry lobby forecasts. Sunflower meal exports in the 2024/25 season amounted to 2.6 MMT, and may exceed 3.1 MMT in the current season.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ran up 472.51 point on Friday to settle at 47,207.12, while the S&P 500 rose 53.25 to close at 6,791.69. Early Monday, December Dow Jones Futures are up another 270 points.

US stock market futures indices are trading higher this morning as signs of easing trade tensions between China and the US buoyed risk appetite in a strong start to a week that will be headlined by central bank meetings and mega-cap earnings. European stock markets are mixed, while Asian markets are higher.

Canada s TSX stock index futures are edging higher this morning ahead of the Bank of Canada s next interest-rate decision this week. The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates again, with the fragile business climate and a new bout of trade uncertainty predicted to outweigh concerns about an uptick in inflation.

Investors will want to see confirmation that a US-China trade truce holds and that China s stimulus and reform signals translate into tangible growth momentum.

The December US Dollar Index is down 0.117 at 98.630. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.63 US cents.

Dec crude oil futures traded weaker overnight, but are now up a modest down $0.08 at US $61.58/barrel. Oil prices initially fell after US and Chinese economic officials sketched out a prospective trade-deal framework, easing fears that tariffs and export curbs between the world s top two oil consumers could dent global economic growth.

The trade-deal framework helps allay concern that Russia could offset new US sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, by offering deeper discounts and using shadow fleets to lure buyers. However, if sanctions on Russian energy are less effective than expected, oversupply pressures could return to the market.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are spiking higher this morning…rallying 15 to 23 cents/bu higher, led by the front month contracts on positive trade talk over the weekend. Bean futures saw steady trade in some deferred contracts on Friday, with nearbys down fractionally to 3 cents. Nov beans were up 22 cents last week ended Friday.

Soymeal futures are rising $1 to almost $3/ton this morning, adding to Friday s $1 to $4/ton gains (Dec meal rose $13.10/t last week). Soyoil futures are 38 to 50 points higher this morning after losing 48 to 60 points on Friday, with Dec bean oil losing 86 points for the week ended Friday.

US and Chinese negotiators reportedly had constructive discussions over the weekend in Malaysia, attaining a framework for President Trump and China s President Xi to discuss this Thursday. On Sunday, Secretary Bessent stated China would begin purchasing substantial amounts of US soybeans. We ll see.

But from a chart perspective…impressive…Nov beans gapping 23 cents higher this morning to $10.65/bu…now at the top of its long, multi-month sideways trading range and far out above all its key moving averages. We are into overbought technical conditions of the Stochastics indicator…meaning Trump better deliver an impressive deal for soy traders on Thursday. A lotta hype built in here.

Meantime, some US soy growing areas will see harvest delays, but parts of the Midwest and Plains should be able to finish activity soon. South American planting conditions generally look very good. It s early, but general sentiment is that Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay will all have substantial crops again this year.

For now…the soybean market remains headline-driven. Traders are going to be speculating a lot ahead of Trump Xi talks this coming Thursday.

Chicago corn futures are up 4 to 7 cents this morning, nearbys leading. The corn market closed out Friday s session with contracts down 1 to 4 cents. Dec corn was up just 0.75 of a cent on the week.

Dec corn is up 6 cents this morning at $4.29/bu, trading above its 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages (clustered around $4.20). But the $4.30 level marks the September rebound high and notable chart resistance. Would certainly be a bullish development to clear up through, but the market still needs to prove itself.

Traders continue to watch the bullish demand strength supporting the market. A record-large US crop is emerging from the fields, and that harvest pressure tends to limit rallies.

US negotiators reported constructive discussions with the Chinese over the weekend in Malaysia…though the Chinese are saying little…all the talk is from Trump people.

Argentina s next corn crop was estimated at 33.8% planted according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, an increase of 3.9% from the week prior. AgRural estimates the 2025/26 Brazilian first corn crop at 55% planted as of Thursday.

US winter wheat futures are advancing mostly 9 to 14 cents higher this morning, with spring wheat 7 to 9 cents higher…riding the bullish wave emanating from the soybean market on US hype about achieving a trade deal with China. Nothing specific on wheat was mentioned at a weekend meeting of trade reps in Malaysia, but the two sides coming together is seen as friendly.

Cash basis prices for wheat in Canada and the US firmed last week. That may indicate demand is strengthening.

Global wheat supplies have swelled, driven by larger spring wheat crops in Canada, Europe, and Russia, and the expected bigger production in Argentina and Australia.

The International Grains Council pegged global wheat stocks at 275 MMT, up from 270 MMT in September. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecasts Argentina’s total wheat production to reach 22 MMT this year, above the USDA’s most recent forecast of 19.5 MMT in September and a 18% year-over-year production increase.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures closed a bit lower on Friday, pressured by losses in other vegetable oils. Declines in Chicago soybeans and soyoil weighed on canola, as did losses in Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed. The January contract chopped mainly sideways this week, with no clear direction.

November soybeans fell $1 on Friday to close at to $617.50/tonne, while January dropped $1.30 to $632.50.

For today… canola futures are trending $4 to $6/tonne higher this morning…like everything else ag…rising the soybean rally wave upward today. After trending mostly sideways last week, Jan canola is up $5.40 this morning at $637.90/tonne…above its 20-day average ($628) and now testing its 50-day ($640). Canola has been developing a basing pattern since bottoming to start the month and seemingly breaking the longer term downtrend drawn off the June high.

Canola is pulling support today from bullish hype lifting the US soybean complex this morning, with strength in diesel futures not hurting either. There s hope that a canola harvest low has been established.

US soy complex futures are in the green today, EU rapeseed futures are slightly higher, but Malaysian palm oil futures are lower this morning. Soyoil is higher on US trade optimism, but does remain somewhat subdued given the weakness in palm oil and gains being extended in soymeal (due to spreading between the two).

Canadian canola exports continue to lag…the Canadian Grain Commission reported that shipments for the week ended Oct 19 (Week 11) came in at only 124,000 tonnes, well below the 5-year average. Total canola shipments to this early point of the 2025-26 market year now tally up to 1.079 MMT, well down from the 2.589 MMT shipped to this time last year. Domestic use though remains robust…253,200 tonnes for this week…with accumulated use for the year so far at 2.565 MMT vs the record 2.464 MMT last year to date. Canadian crushers remain active buyers, though there is some caution as nearby deliverable positions fill up.

On the feed grains… Feed prices on the Canadian Prairies are likely to remain steady for the time being. Brandon Motz, a manager at CorNine Commodities in Lacombe, Alberta says, Feed prices are kind of in a holding pattern. There s lots of supply, there doesn t appear to be lots of demand at the moment.

With that, Motz noted feedlots appear to be well-covered and business simply comes down to wait and see. He placed feed barley prices at $260 to $265/tonne delivered Lethbridge for March-April-May. Barley prices less than those for imported US corn landed southern Alberta, which limits that competition in Western Canadian feed markets.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/