AM Market Report – October 23, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

Grain market bulls are showing some signs of life late this week…finding support from fading North American harvest pressure, strong demand, and mostly positive outside markets. The technical price charts are attempting to turn friendlier for grains and oilseeds, which could invite more chart-based speculators to play the long sides.

ICE canola futures are posting some decent bounce-back gains this morning…rallying $5 to $6/tonne higher and sitting near the highs of the overnight session.

Prairie Weather

A low pressure system moving across northern Alberta is bringing showers to the northeastern regions of the province. The remainder…

Chicago soybean futures are trading 3 to 5 cents/bu higher and building on recent gains. Bean traders are buying, holding out hope…perhaps naively…for a US trade deal with China. Currently, there are no new US soybean sales to China and nothing is expected to be loaded in coming weeks.

CBOT corn futures are steady to a penny higher this morning and trading above its 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages.

US wheat markets are steady to apenny higher right now. Wheat prices, with little news to trade, are following corn higher. But admittedly, wheat bulls still have some heavy lifting in front of them to pull prices out of their downtrends amid plentiful global supply.

In Other News

– Rules-based trading system at risk of derailment… The head of the United Nations said on Wednesday that the global trade system was facing major challenges due to tariffs, with developing countries worst affected. “The rules-based trading system is at risk of derailment,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told delegates at the UN Trade and Development conference in Geneva, pointing to concerns about trade wars and rising trade barriers.

US President Donald Trump’s tariff decisions since he took office in January have shocked financial markets and sent a wave of uncertainty through the global economy. “Supply chains are in turmoil, and trade barriers are rising, with some least developed countries facing extortionate tariffs of 40% despite representing barely 1% of global trade flows,” Guterres said.

Earlier this month the World Trade Organization sharply lowered its 2026 forecast for global merchandise trade volume growth to 0.5%, citing the expected delayed impact of US tariffs. It marked a significant revision down from its previous estimate in August of 1.8% growth.

Trump’s tariff policies have also put pressure on global trade rules agreed under the World Trade Organization. In April, a former WTO boss said the future terms of global trade could be decided outside the 30-year-old international watchdog unless it reforms itself fast.

– Canada is in a strategic partnership with China… Just three years after Canada called China a disruptive global power, Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand says Canada now views Beijing as a strategic partner in a dangerous world. Anand on Monday said that a strategic partnership with China means going beyond allowing individual irritants to strain the entire relationship and permitting Canada to advance its economic and security interests. It s necessary for us to lay the foundation, if we are going to find areas where we can further co-operate, she said.

She spoke after visiting senior officials in China, India and Singapore…and just days before Prime Minister Mark Carney departs on his first visit to Asia since taking office, with stops in Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea (APEC meeting).

Her visit marks a shift away from the federal government s 2022 Indo-Pacific strategy, which branded China as an increasingly disruptive global power that holds interests and values that increasingly depart from ours. Anand said she is seeking a balance between alleviating economic stress and pursuing Ottawa s security and human rights priorities.

While she did not name US President Donald Trump directly, his tariffs have hit numerous Canadian sectors and hindered foreign investment, even after Ottawa emulated American restrictions on Chinese vehicles.

In Beijing last week, both countries agreed to revisit the strategic partnership they signed in January 2005. Anand said both sides will have the agreement renewed and refocused to meet today s needs. What we are aiming to do is to recalibrate the relationship, so that it is constructive and pragmatic, Anand said.

Canada and China have been at odds for months over Ottawa s move to match US tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which led China to slap tariffs on Canadian canola, in addition to peas, pork and seafood tariffs.

– Planted acreage in Brazil to rise… Brazilian farmers are planting a record number of corn and soybean acres for the 2025-2026 crop season. CONAB predicts Brazil s soybean acreage will increase by 3.5% to 121 million acres, the largest area on record. Corn acreage is also expected to expand, climbing 4% according to initial estimates.

– Favorable weather accelerates South American soybean and corn planting...Planting conditions are favorable for South American farmers. Michael Cordonnier with Soybean and Corn Advisor says about a quarter of the Brazilian soybean crop is planted. The big state of Mato Grosso, 43% (planted) and Parana 39%. Rainfall continues to favor southern Brazil, but it has started to pick up in central Brazil as well.

Cordonnier also noted corn in Argentina is 30% planted, with soybean planting starting this week. The Ag Minister (of Argentina) reported that Argentina may export the most amount of soybeans in 15 years, which is no surprise given the trade war between the United States and China. And Argentina is starting off this growing season with the best soil moisture in five years.

Cordonnier says planting progress in Argentina and Brazil is ahead of normal, and Paraguay is wrapping up its fastest soybean planting season in recent memory.

– Strong demand drives US ethanol supplies to 51-week low… Strong demand has pulled the US ethanol supply to a near-one year low. The US Energy Information Administration says US ethanol stocks of 21.919 million barrels were the lowest in 51 weeks, falling 709,000 on the week and 304,000 on the year.

Ethanol production averaged 1.112 million barrels per day, the highest in 19 weeks, an increase of 38,000 from the previous week and 31,000 from a year ago. Iowa State University says estimated operating margins for the average Iowa plant improved, reflecting the solid returns for many operations.

– Global warming is pushing the planet to the brink… The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned on Wednesday that global warming is pushing the planet to the brink and urged countries to implement disaster warning systems to protect people against extreme weather.

“Every one of the last ten years has been the hottest in history. Ocean heat is breaking records while decimating ecosystems. And no country is safe from fires, floods, storms and heatwaves,” he told delegates at the UN World Meteorological Organization’s extraordinary conference in Geneva to mark its 75th year.

– Conversation on beef fans into stampede... In a press release yesterday, the US National Cattleman s Beef Association said, Efforts to manipulate markets only risk damaging the livelihoods of American cattlemen and women, while doing little to impact the price consumers are paying at the grocery store.

US President Trump yesterday posted a message on Truth Social reading, in part, The Cattle Ranchers, who I love, don t understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States, including a 50% Tariff on Brazil. The message ignored fundamental reality in cattle markets including ongoing supply tightness, surprisingly solid consumer/packer demand and the impacts of the US embargo on feeder cattle from Mexico due to New World Screwworm.

While NCBA s release did not reference Trump s message, NCBA CEO Colin Woodall was quoted therein as saying, The National Cattlemen s Beef Association and its members cannot stand behind the President while he undercuts the future of family farmers and ranchers by importing Argentinian beef in an attempt to influence prices.

Jim Wiesemeyer warned producers on AgriTalk Radio s Free for All last Friday when he suggested President Trump s focus is on the consumer, not the producer when it comes to cattle.

– Trump administration plans to distribute farmer aid amid shutdown… The administration of US President Donald Trump is planning to distribute billions in aid for American farmers and reopen some activities of the USDA amid the ongoing federal shutdown, the agency said on Tuesday. The aid will amount to more than US $3 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal.

– Fear grips Indonesian palm oil industry as military seizes plantations…Indonesian soldiers in fatigues marched onto a private palm oil plantation on Borneo island in late June and posted a signboard declaring the estate under government control, its managers said. The scene at the Melati Hanjalipan plantation exemplifies a sweeping military-backed takeover that has sent a chill through the world’s biggest palm oil producer and its 16-million-strong workforce. Around 9.14 million acres of plantations have been seized, with nearly half transferred to nascent state firm Agrinas Palma Nusantara, catapulting it into the world’s largest palm oil company by land size.

The crackdown ordered by President Prabowo Subianto is the biggest structural change in Indonesia’s palm industry and has brought a total of 12.35 million acres under military scrutiny. That is about 30% of the country’s total palm oil acreage. The territory could eventually be handed to Agrinas, a company industry experts say is ill-equipped to manage it.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 334.33 points on Wednesday to settle at 46,590.41, but the S&P 500 was down 35.95 points at 6,699.40. Early Thursday, the December Dow Jones Futures are down 55 points.

Global stock markets were mixed coming into this morning as lacklustre earnings from tech mega-caps deepened a sell-off on Wall Street, while new US sanctions against Russia and possible new export controls on China revived geopolitical worries. Wall Street futures are slightly weaker this morning, but Canada s TSX stock index futures were in positive territory as commodity prices climbed.

With no fresh macro data to anchor sentiment, investors are leaning defensive while Trump s month-end Asia visit stirs geopolitical nerves, said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Bank in Singapore. The chatter around US software export curbs to China has hit tech sentiment right where it hurts, and renewed sanctions on Russia are a reminder that geopolitical risks aren t going away either.

The December US Dollar Index is up 0.142 at 98.815. The Canadian dollar was little changed against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.58 US cents.

Dec crude oil futures are surging $3.38 higher at US $61.88/barrel. Oil prices have jumped this morning, extending yesterday s gains, after the US imposed sanctions on major Russian suppliers Rosneft and Lukoil over the Ukraine war. But skepticism in the market about whether the US sanctions would result in a fundamental shift in supply and demand has limited the gains.

So far, almost all the sanctions against Russia for the past 3.5 years have mostly failed to dent either the volumes produced by the country or the oil revenues, said Rystad Energy analyst Claudio Galimberti.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 3 to 5 cents/bu higher this morning and posting a notable 27 cent rebound in the past week. Bean futures rose across the nearbys on Thursday with contracts fractionally to 4 cents higher. Soymeal futures are around $1/ton weaker this morning after finishing steady to $3/ton higher yesterday. Soyoil futures are 51 to 57 points higher this morning.

In trade developments, Japan is looking to increase purchases of US soybeans, though the US already takes up roughly 70% of Japanese imports which annually total 3.3 MMT. Secretary Bessent and Chinese counterparts are expected to meet this weekend in Malaysia for trade talks ahead of the expected meeting between Trump and Xi at the end of the month. But there remain questions as to whether or not President Trump and President Xi will even have separate face-to-face tariff negotiations at that APEC summit. With respect to the soybean market, a lot is riding on something happening here to restart trade.

Brazil s 2025/26 soybean production estimate from Abiove was pegged at 178.5 MMT, a new all-time record large peg and 6.7 MMT above the total from the previous year.

Chicago corn futures are steady to a penny higher this morning. The corn market rose 1 to 3 cents on Wednesday. Robust demand remains an underlying supportive feature.

For the week ended Oct 17, US ethanol production averaged 1.12 million barrels per day, up from last week’s 1.07 million and last year’s 1.08 million. US domestic ethanol inventories ended the week at 21.9 million barrels, down from 22.6 million a week ago and 22.2 million a year ago.

Anecdotal reporting suggests yields have been down, but the trade is still expecting record US corn production in 2025.

US wheat markets are steady to edging a penny higher this morning. The wheat complex closed with gains on Wednesday…Minnie spring wheat futures up 2 to 3 cents on the day.

Contracts remain oversold, but any sustained price upside will likely continue to be limited by rising world supplies. That followed increases in production in Canada, Europe, and Russia, and includes what are expected to be large crops in Argentina and Australia. Traders are also monitoring winter wheat planting in the US, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.

Export demand for US wheat has been good, but might start to dip with a recent steady to lower move in world prices. US wheat exports during the week ended on October 17 were solid at 480,614 tonnes. This pushed total US exports to date to 11.92 MMT that have been shipped since June 1. This is the strongest export performance for US wheat since the 2013-14 marketing year.

The challenge for US wheat exports during the coming months will not be due to export demand, but limited export capacity as new crop corn and soybean export shipping ramps up. The drop in US wheat export capacity is good news for Canada as that will reduce competition for Western Canadian wheat in the coming weeks and months. This should result in even stronger demand for Canadian wheat, supporting Prairie cash basis.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures fell with other vegetable oils on Wednesday amid a lack of fresh news. Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil futures lost ground, which helped to pull canola lower. However, soybeans and European rapeseed did manage gains on the day.

The harvest across Western Canada is now essentially complete, and the market continues to wait on new Canada-China trade developments. The Chicago soy complex is also awaiting news, as US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping might meet next week at the APEC Summit in South Korea.

November canola fell $2.50 yesterday to close at $613.10/tonne, while January lost $2.60 to $627.50.

For today… canola futures are posting solid $5/tonne gains to start this morning. A process of basing seems to be taking shape in canola futures trade, but not yet convincingly…sideways trade over the past month after sliding lower for much of the summer and early fall.

Canola this morning is drawing support from the leap higher in crude oil this week, including the $3/barrel rally seen this morning. In turn, diesel futures are stronger, gaining 11.3% since Monday’s low. That has awakened the bulls in the soyoil market with gains there spilling over to help canola.

But canola bulls remain restrained until Canada s trade hiccup with China can move closer to some resolution to restart exports. The Canadian government is between a rock and a hard place after a Chinese official said earlier this month that canola tariffs would be dropped if Canada dropped its levy on Chinese electric vehicles. The matter has driven a wedge between the Canadian canola and automotive industries with the lack of progress frustrating both sides.

January canola futures are up $5.40 this morning at $632.90/tonne…holding rangebound between $620 and $640.