AM Market Report – October 22, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are trading less than $1/tonne higher so far this morning as the market remains generally in pause- or basing mode in October after falling steadily through the summer months.

Chicago soybean futures are gaining around 3 cents/bu and the upside leader of late for the US grain sector…helped by recent rebound gains in soymeal futures now at a four-week high.

CBOT corn futures are ticking up about a penny…pausing at mid-week, after a corrective pullback on Tuesday.

AM Market Report – October 23, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain market bulls are showing some signs of life late…

US wheat markets narrowly mixed this morning but mostly a penny or two higher, though continuing to languish at/near their recent contract lows…also 5-year lows…anchored by plentiful world supply.

The overall marketplace is confused after US President Donald Trump suggested on Tuesday that his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping might not happen. With the wishy-washy talk out of Washington, combined with little trade data, traders are keeping market positions close to their vests. This leaves little room for the markets to gain any direction.

In Other News

– Carney cautious about report of potential Canadian trade deal with US…Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday expressed caution after a newspaper reported he might soon sign a trade deal on steel and aluminum with the US, saying I wouldn’t overplay it. The Globe and Mail, citing sources familiar with the matter, said the agreement could be ready for Carney and US President Donald Trump to sign at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit later this month in South Korea.

Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum and autos earlier this year, prompting Ottawa to respond in kind. The two sides have been in talks for weeks on a potential steel and aluminum deal.

We’ll see. We are in ongoing discussions with the Americans, and I wouldn’t overplay it, Carney told reporters in Ottawa when pressed about the report, adding that he planned to meet Trump in South Korea. The White House and US Commerce Department did not respond to requests for comment.

The US is not ready to make any deal on Canadian automobiles or on softwood lumber, a sector which has been targeted by Washington for decades.

– Trump hesitates on US-China trade meeting... US President Donald Trump continues to go back-and-forth on whether the US and China will meet to discuss trade in the next 10 days (surprise).

We re going to have a fair deal and I think we re going to have a very successful meeting. Certainly, there are a lot of people that are waiting for it, he says. Maybe it won t happen. Things can happen where, for instance, maybe somebody will say I don t want to meet, it s too nasty. But it s really not nasty, it s just business.

Meanwhile, Trump sat down to lunch at the White House with Republican Senators yesterday and told them there is no guarantee he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at a month-end APEC meeting in South Korea. He added that he still hopes to meet with Xi but you never know in this business. What?

US grain markets…particularly soybeans…are responding to the uncertainty. The idea that Trump was going to meet with Xi Jinping, and they re going talk and formalize some deal on US soybean exports, remains as wishy-washy as ever. Beijing has yet to even confirm the two leaders will meet to talk directly…never mind getting some kind of trade deal. Trust in Trump getting something done should be…well…low.

Fact is…Trump s trade war with China has soured the Asian giant on dealing with US soybeans. China will buy…but only as a last resort…and at a time if/when they need them. Otherwise, they prefer to buy South American whenever possible.

– Japan s new leader to woo Trump with pickups and soybeans… As Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi got to work, her government began finalising a purchase package, including US pickups, soybeans and gas, to present to US President Donald Trump in trade and security talks next week. She will not, however, commit to any new defence spending target at the meeting, which comes as Washington presses Japan and other allies to do more. The two leaders will sit down in Tokyo early next week, Trump s first visit to Japan since his re-election following an agreement by her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, to invest as much as $550 billion in the US in return for lower auto tariffs.

– Consultancy boosts Russia’s 2025 wheat forecast… Russia’s IKAR consultancy has raised its 2025 wheat and grain production forecasts for the country, it said on Tuesday. IKAR raised the wheat crop forecast from 87.5 MMT to 88 MMT. It boosted its total grain forecast from 136.5 MMT to 137.3 MMT, and estimated grain export potential at 57.8 MMT, up from 57.5 MMT.

– Wet weather hits Ukraine sunflower, soybean harvest… Continuous rainfall in the main regions of Ukraine where sunflowers, soybeans and corn are grown is reducing crop yields and quality, although it is having a favourable effect on winter crops, UAC, the country major farm union, said on Tuesday. Ukraine is the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter and a large European grower of soybeans.

“Rains mean grain moisture, mean crop losses. Every week, sunflower and soybean crop estimates are declining,” UAC said in a weekly report. “It will be one of the worst results in our history.”

UAC said that the local market estimated the sunflower seed harvest at between 10.5 and 12 MMT. Analyst APK-Inform earlier this month cut its forecasts for Ukraine’s 2025 sunflower seed harvest to 12.5 MMT versus a previous forecast of 13.6 MMT and against 14.6 MMT expected in August.

The consultancy saw the 2025 soybeans harvest at 5.75 MMT, 20% less than in 2024.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 218.16 points higher on Tuesday to settle at 46,924.74, with the S&P 500 edging up 0.22 of a point to 6,735.35. Early Wednesday, the December Dow Jones Futures are down 48 points.

Most global stock markets are lower this morning as stretched valuations came under scrutiny and investors booked profits. Geopolitics also loomed large. A planned summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was put on hold and ambiguity lingered over a potential meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

TSX stock index futures are actually slightly higher this morning after Canada s main stock index yesterday posted its biggest decline since April…led by miners as the price of gold Tuesday sold off in its largest one-day drop in a decade.

It s one of those situations whereby when positions become stretched…and you d have to say that the tech-driven Nasdaq is certainly in that boat [and] for some of these other frothy markets, we re seeing little flash crashes now … We re just seeing little tremors in markets, and potentially there s something more significant to come, said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG.

The December US Dollar Index is up 0.154 at 98.865. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.40 US cents.

Dec crude oil futures are up $1.28 at US $58.52/barrel. Oil prices pushed higher, buoyed by sanctions-related supply risks and hopes of a US-China trade deal (hopes that is all that is). Investors also digested news that the US is seeking oil for delivery to its strategic reserves.

Crude oil prices overnight rebounded from 5-month lows hit Tuesday, due in part to reports the US and India may be nearing a trade deal that could see the India gradually reduce imports of Russian crude oil, which would boost demand for alternative supplies.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading around 3 cents/bu higher this morning. The bean market slipped lower into Tuesday s close, as contracts were ended down 1 to 2 cents on the session. Soymeal futures are a $1/ton or less lower this morning after finishing yesterday steady to almost $2/ton higher. Soyoil is 24 to 28 points higher after a dip of 50 to 66 points lower on Tuesday.

The erratic on again/off again blabbering of Donald Trump on whether he has actually secured a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the month-end APEC meeting has the soy trade confused. Adding to Trump s volatile tone…flailing away Tuesday declaring he might now levy an absurd 155% tariff on Chinese goods as of November 1 and calling into question his so far phantom meeting with President Xi. As Foghorn Leghorn would say… What a maroon.

The US soybean harvest should be approaching 75% finished and South American planting weather, for the most part, looks good.

Chicago corn futures are up around a penny this morning. The corn market fell 3 to 4 cents/bu lower yesterday in the nearbys. The Dec corn contract can t seem to stray far from the $4.20/bu level. Traders appear uncertain about the US harvest pace (60% done?) and crop size, seeking more reliable information before supporting sustained buying efforts.

On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reversed its support for year-round sales of E15 blended gasoline in the US, as indicated in a letter to Congressional leaders.

While export demand for US corn remains strong overall, the trade s is waiting to see what comes out of suddenly heightened US tensions with Colombia (reported here yesterday), a top-5 foreign buyer of US corn.

US wheat markets are little changed to up a penny or two this morning…though still hanging around at/near contract and 5-year lows. The wheat market fell lower into Tuesday s close…Minnie spring wheat futures losing 3 to 4 cents yesterday across the nearbys.

While futures remain in the tank, cash basis both in the US and Western Canada continue to strengthen…suggestive of solid commercial demand.

Generally, the wheat market still faces the headwind of ample global supplies despite being technically oversold. Weighing the market down are the year-to-year production increases in Europe, Canada, and Russia, and larger expectations for soon to be harvested wheat crops in Argentina and Australia. The trade is also monitoring winter wheat planting and development conditions in the US, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures ended little changed on Tuesday, posting just minor advances. The canola market was initially under pressure amid weakness in other world vegetable oils but managed to close just barely in positive territory.

The Canadian dollar was higher yesterday, following a Statistics Canada report that Canada s annual inflation rate rose 2.4% in September, compared with a 1.9% increase in August. The increase was above economist expectations and has now raised doubt about a possible Bank of Canada rate cut later this month.

November canola futures ended Tuesday up a miniscule 20 cents at $615.60/tonne, and January was a dime higher at $630.10.

For today… canola futures were flickering around unchanged early this morning…but now pushing up $1 to $2/tonne. Jan canola is currently $2 higher at $632.10/tonne…just above its 20-day moving average ($628)…and rangebound for much of October after a summer-long slide lower to 6-month lows.

The Prairie harvest is essentially wrapped up amid trade indications of a big canola crop…hearing speculation up into 21 to 22 MMT territory…up notably from StatCan s month-ago forecast of 20.03 MMT and the 19.2 MMT crop produced in 2024.

Export pace remains a weak point as long as China demand remains absent. And while domestic crusher buying has occurred in volume for fall shipping, it is believed their needs are now pretty well covered through December…some into January already.

Still hanging out there…China s offer to drop its import tariffs on Canadian agriculture if Canada drops its levies on electric vehicles. The Carney government says it is reviewing its tariffs on Chinese EVs, but walks a tightrope in a highly charged political decision here…balancing Canada East/West interests, as well as Canada/US interests.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/