AM Market Report – October 21, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are sinking $5 to $7/tonne lower so far this morning, marking a potential fourth consecutive session of price weakness.

Chicago soybean futures are edging 1 to 2 cents/bu higher this morning, hitting a 4-week high and building on yesterday s notable gains. The soybean market rallied on Monday on optimistic comments from US President Donald Trump about a phantom trade deal in the works with China…and the trade fell for it again…and likely to soon be disappointed…again. Trump said he believed Beijing would agree to a soybean trade deal and will buy US soy in volume again. I ll believe it when I see it.

AM Market Report – October 23, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain market bulls are showing some signs of life late…

CBOT corn futures are fractionally to a penny weaker. The corn market rose Monday on strong weekly US export inspections. US corn is the most affordable in the world at roughly US $200/tonne from the Gulf.

But corn traders are now worried about rising US tensions with Colombia, a top-five buyer of US corn. Colombia recalled its ambassador from Washington after Trump said he would raise tariffs on the South American nation and stop all payments to it, intensifying a feud stemming from US military strikes on vessels in the Caribbean allegedly transporting drugs.

US wheat markets are softer… Minnie spring wheat futures are less than a penny lower, while the winter wheats are down 2 to 3 cents. Ample global supply keeps a lid on wheat prices. But wheat export flow from both Canada and the US remains strong and fluid. Plus, futures spread prices and cash basis keeps firming, further indicating robust export demand.

Meanwhile, US farmers continue to harvest corn and soybeans. No reports from the USDA s statistical arm were scheduled this week due to the ongoing US government shutdown. But analysts surveyed by Reuters on average estimated that the US soybean crop was 73% harvested by Sunday and the US corn harvest was 59% complete.

In Other News

– Canada-US trade deal may be ready for approval at APEC summit… A Canada-US trade deal on steel, aluminum and energy could be ready for Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump to sign at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit later this month in South Korea, reports the Globe and Mail newspaper, citing sources familiar with the matter. Reuters could not immediately verify the report by the Toronto-based daily. The White House, US Commerce Department and Carney’s office did not respond to requests for comment. The US, however, is not ready to make any deal on Canadian automobiles or softwood lumber, the report added.

Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum and autos earlier this year, prompting Canada to respond in kind. Negotiations ensued on lifting the measures against steel and aluminum. Canada will probably have to accept quotas on steel in exchange for a lower US tariff, with critical minerals off the table in these talks, sources told the Globe and Mail.

Reuters reported earlier this week that Canada offered tariff relief on some steel and aluminum products imported from the US and China, in efforts to help domestic businesses battered by a trade war on two fronts.

– Russian wheat export prices rise… Russian wheat export prices climbed last week amid a stronger ruble and sustained demand from importers, while analysts raised their export estimates for October. The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery at the end of November or the start of December was at US $231/tonne at the end of last week, up $2 from the previous week, said the IKAR consultancy. The SovEcon consultancy estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content at between $230 and $231/tonne FOB compared to $230-232 the previous week.

Analysts see an increase in Russian wheat shipments, partly due to improved weather conditions in ports. SovEcon increased its estimate of October Russian wheat exports by 0.1 MMT to 5.1 MMT. IKAR also raised its estimate for October exports to 5.0 MMT from more than 4.5 MMT last week.

– Could China squeak by and not purchase any US soybeans?… That s a sub-headline from noted crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier in his weekly report. China has yet to book any new crop soybeans from the US at a time when they normally would have booked 10-15 MMT. This is obviously part of their negotiation strategy with US President Trump concerning the current trade war.

After the trade dispute during the first Trump administration, China decided to diversify its soybean purchases by turning more to Brazil for their soybeans and they never looked back. Brazil for its part continued to expand its soybean acreage in anticipation of increased demand from China. During the 2019/20 growing season, Brazil produced 128.5 MMT of soybeans (USDA estimate). During the current 2025/26 growing season, Brazil is expected to produce 175.0 MMT of soybeans (USDA estimate).

Therefore, there are potentially 46-47 MMT more of soybeans available to purchase in Brazil compared to six years ago, said Cordonnier. In my humble opinion, China will probably purchase a limited amount of US soybeans as part of its bargaining strategy with President Trump. How much is an open question. If they wanted to continue playing hard ball , they probably could use their reserves until the new crop starts becoming is available in Brazil (Jan-Feb) and not purchase any US soybeans. Time will tell what they decide.

– Trump plan to import Argentine beef angers US farmers… US farmers on Monday criticized President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the country may import more beef from Argentina, after they recently lost out to the South American nation on soybean sales to top buyer China. Trump said on Sunday that he was considering imports to reduce US beef prices that have climbed to record highs. His administration earlier extended a $20 billion currency swap lifeline to Argentina, which the president considers an ally.

US cattle producers saw the suggestion as a threat to their livelihoods and free markets, at a time when ranchers are profiting from sky-high livestock prices and strong consumer demand. “This plan only creates chaos at a critical time of the year for American cattle producers, while doing nothing to lower grocery store prices,” said Colin Woodall, CEO of the US National Cattlemen’s Beef Association industry group.

Last month, the Trump administration frustrated farmers by negotiating financial support for Argentina that opened the door to Argentina selling more soybeans to China, which has not bought any soy from the autumn US harvest due to its trade conflict with Washington.

– China intensifies effort to ensure wheat sowing against heavy rains…China has launched a 60-day campaign to secure wheat planting in the main North China Plain winter wheat belt, the government said on Monday, after heavy rains left fields wet and threatened to delay planting and disrupt next year’s grain supply. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will adopt targeted measures to strengthen planting in wet conditions, take action to handle late sowing, and improve field management before winter, it said in a statement.

Farmers in the region…which is harvesting corn and planting winter wheat…are also racing to salvage their corn crops as persistent rain hampers harvesting and risks damaging grain quality, with some corn sprouting or becoming moldy. In a separate statement on Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics said the region had experienced unfavourably wet weather conditions during the harvest period, affecting the production of autumn grain…about 75% of China’s annual grain production. It added that nationwide, autumn grain production has been generally stable, and another bumper harvest is expected this year.

The National Meteorological Center said that this week, continued cloudy and rainy weather is keeping soils overly wet, delaying harvesting and wheat sowing in parts of the region. No official crop damage report has been released.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied up 515.97 points on Monday to settle at 46,706.58, while the S&P 500 jumped up 71.12 points to 6,735.13. Early Tuesday, the December Dow Jones Futures are up a more modest 43 points.

Global stock markets search for direction this morning as traders eyed a possible easing in trade tensions between the US and China and nerves over credit risks in the banking sector ebbed. Wall Street futures are in slightly positive territory on the heels of a broad rally sent all three major US stock indexes to a sharply higher close yesterday.

TSX futures turned down this morning on new Canadian inflation data out today. Statistics Canada this morning reported the annualized pace of Canadian inflation accelerated more than expected in September, potentially casting doubt on the Bank of Canada s interest rate decision next week. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% in September on an annualized basis, up from August s 1.9% pace, StatCan said. Financial analysts were expecting an inflation rate of 2.2%.

Heading into today s CPI report, the Bank of Canada was widely expected to cut its benchmark interest rate on Oct. 29. The central bank resumed cutting in September…the key interest rate is now 2.5%…after three consecutive holds. The Bank of Canada had been on pause as it assessed the fallout from hefty US tariffs.

But in September, the bank s governing council decided that growth and employment concerns outweighed inflation risks from tariffs, leading them to lower borrowing costs.

The December US Dollar Index is up 0.310 at 98.665. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.38 US cents.

Dec crude oil futures are up $0.17 at US $57.19/barrel. Oil prices are edging slightly higher this morning after falling yesterday to a 5.5-mont low as concerns about oversupply and risks to demand, along with the trade dispute between the US and China still all weigh on the market.

The amount of crude on tankers at sea has risen to a record high as producers keep adding barrels, according to data from Vortexa and reported by Bloomberg. The International Energy Agency is projecting a record crude oil surplus next year as the OPEC-plus alliance and producers from outside of the group ramp up output.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 1 to 2 cents/bu higher this morning…continuing to draw price support from friendlier trade talk on Monday, as contracts closed with 12 to 14 cent gains. Soymeal futures are steady to less than $1/ton lower this morning after rallying $4/ton higher on Monday. But soyoil futures are easing 18 to 22 points lower this morning after ending Monday up 18 to 34 points.

Over the weekend President Trump stated he was confident in reaching a soybean deal with China and he wants China to buy soybeans at least in the amount they were buying before. He reiterated similar statements on Monday. A deal most likely injects significant bullishness into the soy market. But for right now that s all just jibber-jabber. The trade has fallen for such Trump talk in the past…only to have been disappointed after seeing zero results. Will this time be any different? I m thinking Charlie Brown and Lucy with the football kick.

China is reportedly now booked on soybeans into December following the recent strong demand from Brazil and the big recent buy from Argentina during their export tax suspension. Doesn’t leave a lot of time for US business before the next record Brazil soy harvest starts in Jan-Feb.

USDA tallied US soybean export shipments at 1.474 MMT during the week ended Oct 16. That was 42.9% below the same week last year but 44.9% above the previous week. Early US 2025-26 marketing year exports are now 5.537 MMT (since Sept 1), which is now 30.9% below the same period last year. No China business to date.

Chicago corn futures are steady to a penny weaker this morning. The corn market posted higher trade at Monday s close with contracts fractionally higher in the nearbys.

Monday morning s US export inspections report showed a total of 1.317 MMT of US corn shipped in the week of Oct 16. That was 8.9% above the week prior and up 31.62% from the same week last year. The US marketing year total since Sept 1 is now at 9.338 MMT of corn shipped, which is now 60.61% above the same period last year.

Over the weekend, US President Trump threatened to cut off some aid and increase tariffs on top-five US corn buyer Colombia in response to alleged drug flow from the country. Colombia responded by recalling its ambassador to the US.

The corn harvest in the US is advancing rapidly as October winds down. Normally nearly three quarters of the crop would be in the bin by the third week of October.

US wheat markets dipping down in to fresh contract lows again this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are less than a penny lower, while the winter wheats are down 2 to 3 cents. The US wheat complex was mixed on Monday, spring wheat futures finishing steady across the front months. The futures price downtrend remains firmly intact.

US export inspections data showed 480,614 tonnes of US wheat shipped in the week ended Oct 16, which was an increase of 7.39% from the week prior and 77.63% above the same week last year. US marketing year shipments (since June 1) have totaled 11.193 MMT, a 20.35% increase yr/yr.

Wheat traders have one eye on solid demand and one eye on ample global supply.

Wheat futures remain very oversold technically on price charts, especially Minneapolis, but rising global supplies and scarce news have kept a cap on prices. US winter wheat development weather mostly looks favorable. The trade is also watching development and harvest in Argentina and Australia, along with winter wheat planting in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures eased slightly on Monday, even as the Chicago soy complex rallied on phantom US-China trade optimism. Reports said canola was pressured by increased farmer selling, as the Prairie harvest is essentially now complete.

On the other hand, the CBOT soy complex gained after US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that he believes China and the US will reach a deal that will see China return as a buyer of American beans…but such speculative talk from Trump s mouth can hardly be trusted. The US administration continues to tout that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet outside the APEC Summit in South Korea later this month to discuss trade…though Beijing has yet to acknowledge any such special meeting is even scheduled.

European rapeseed was higher yesterday.

Updated monthly supply/demand estimates released by Agriculture Canada on Friday pegged 2025-26 canola ending stocks at 2.5 MMT, unchanged from its September estimate and up from 1.597 MMT in 2024-25.

November canola slipped 80 cents yesterday to close at $615.40/tonne, and January was down 30 cents at $630.

For today… canola futures are trending $5 to $7/tonne weaker this morning…down potentially for a fourth consecutive session and down at new lows for overnight trade action. Nov canola is down $7 at $608.40/tonne right now and slipping back below its 20-day moving average ($613). Futures are trying to establish a process of basing here above $600-$610/t, but still clearly lacks upside momentum.

Traders continue to watch for any signal from Ottawa with respect to taking China up on its recent offer to remove tariffs (EVs for canola) so canola trade can return to normal. But so far, we only hear crickets.

Interesting that CBOT soybeans have rallied four straight sessions (and up through all its key moving averages), while canola has done the opposite. But beans are up on speculative Trump claims to restore trade with China…which is a long reach right now.

EU rapeseed futures slightly higher this morning, but is a rangebound market. Malaysian palm oil is slightly weaker, drifting sideways along with soyoil in the short term.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/