AM Market Report – October 20, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are trading $5 to $6/tonne higher to start this morning. Nov canola futures rose $8.80/tonne in the last week ended Friday as a tentative bottoming process seems to be developing.

Despite sluggish Canadian exports, canola s price discount to EU rapeseed remains wide…making Canadian supply look comparatively cheap. Meanwhile, Canada and China are at least talking, hoping to get that key canola trade corridor back in operation sometime…hopefully.

AM Market Report – October 23, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain market bulls are showing some signs of life late…

Chicago soybean futures are rising 8 to 9 cents/bu this morning to a 2-week high, with meal up, though soyoil is only narrowly mixed. Bean futures fluctuated all last week amid trade tension talks between the US and China.
Nov soybeans gained 12.75 cents last week, with Dec soy oil up 116 points.

CBOT corn futures are steady to fractionally higher as technical signals try to push the market to a fifth consecutive higher session. Dec corn rose 9 cents last week.

US wheat markets are mixed to slightly weaker. Wheat futures continue to see relative weakness, but are feeling some spillover strength from corn and soybeans. However, ample world wheat supply and increased Russian wheat sales still weighing on prices that are mired near 5 year lows.

Grain markets are seeing some buying support to start the trading week on reports the US and Canada are trying to work with China to ratchet down trade tensions. Look for more choppy trade as grain markets remain focuses on South American weather and China-related trade tensions.

But note… US President Trump last week indicated that the US and China were embroiled in a trade war. Trump was sounding less harsh on his China rhetoric over the weekend, but this changes from one day to the next and one week to the next.

Meanwhile, a far more consistent Chinese President Xi indicated through state media that the Chinese population should sense a crisis and carry forward the spirit of the struggle. Further, Xi suggested that the door is open for US trade talks, but China is ready to fight to the end, developing through struggle rather than compromise. This combative Chinese public rhetoric has ramped up since US-China negotiators last met.

In Other News

– Canada and China discuss disputes over canola and EVs… Senior Canadian and Chinese officials discussed bilateral trade disputes involving canola and electric vehicles on Friday, Ottawa said, but gave no indication of any immediate breakthrough. Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand met Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing as part of an effort by both countries to improve relations, which have been poor for years.

China announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola seed and pea imports in August, a year after Canada said it would slap a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.

“The ministers discussed issues of respective sensitivity, such as agriculture and agri-food products, including canola, as well as seafood, meat and electric vehicles,” the Canadian foreign ministry said in a statement. “(They) agreed that regular and candid communication is essential to build trust, enhance cooperation and address respective concerns.”

An official Chinese readout of the meeting said Yi had told Anand that Beijing was willing to work with Canada to restart dialogue and exchanges at all levels and to promote the resolution of each nation’s legitimate concerns.

Beijing hopes to enhance communication, eliminate interference and rebuild mutual trust with the Canadian side, Wang told Anand, according to the readout of their meeting. The two countries should jointly defend multilateralism and the international trade order, Wang added.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he expected to meet senior Chinese leaders soon, but has so far sidestepped questions about dropping tariffs on electric vehicles in exchange for relief from the canola duties.

– US, China try to ease their tensions… Trade sentiment improved early Monday as US President Trump sought to ease trade tensions. A new round of US-China trade talks is set for this week in Malaysia, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng looking to negotiate down new escalatory measures, reported Bloomberg. The US-China trade spat appears to be easing with conciliatory comments coming from both the US and China, said Mohit Kumar, chief economist at Jefferies International Ltd.

When asked by Fox News on Sunday about his threat to raise tariffs on Chinese goods by 100%, Trump said the levy was not sustainable, though it could stand. The US will be fine with China, he added.

Bessent virtually met with He on Friday, discussions that Chinese state media described as a constructive exchange of views. Trump on Sunday reiterated he wants China to buy US soybeans. For the first time since at least the 1990s, China hasn t bought any US soybeans at the start of the US new crop export season, a sign that Beijing is once again using agriculture as leverage in its trade negotiations with the US.

– Algeria buys about 400,000 tonnes durum wheat… Algeria s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased about 400,000 tonnes of durum wheat in an international tender last week. The tender sought a nominal 50,000 tonnes, but Algeria frequently purchases more than the volumes initially sought. Initial estimates of the purchase price were around US $324/tonne cost and freight (c&f) included for larger Panamax shipments. Converted back to a midpoint Sask elevator delivery price…around $8.00/bu.

About 90,000 tonnes of the purchase was believed to involve US-origin durum, with much of the rest believed to involve Canadian-origin (No.3 CWAD). The tender sought shipment in four periods: November 1-15, November 16-30, December 1-15 and December 16-31.

All major exporters have a year-over-year increase in production. Canadian traders need to secure supplies before Thunder Bay closes. Once traders have sufficient coverage for their November and December requirements, the market tends to weaken.

– Farm Journal survey lowers US corn yield expectations… The impact of disease and dry conditions are becoming increasingly evident as combines roll. More than 70% of US farmers report steady or lower corn yields in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota. The US government shutdown and resulting absence of data from USDA has left a void in the volatile grain markets. To fill the gap, Farm Journal conducted a survey to get an update on US corn yields. The biggest takeaway is that us corn yields are estimated to be down compared with USDA s September estimates in six of the seven US Pro Farmer Crop Tour states. Due to disease pressure and dryness, the 2025 national corn yield could be lower than the 2024 average of 179.3 bu.

Traders and analysts saw US corn production falling from the September USDA average US national yield estimate of 186.7 bu/acre to 185 bu, according to a pre-report poll from Bloomberg in early October. If production does shrink, as the latest Farm Journal survey indicates, the national average yield for 2025 could fall much further to 178.5 bu/acre.

– China holds off on soybean purchases due to high Brazil premiums… While covered for Oct-Nov needs, China has yet to secure much of its soybean supply for December and January as high premiums for Brazilian cargoes discourage buyers, a development that could prompt Beijing to tap state reserves to meet near-term needs. China still needs to purchase about 8 to 9 MMT of soybeans for Dec-Jan shipment after covering cargoes through November with hefty purchases of Argentine beans in recent weeks. Escalating Washington-Beijing trade tensions continue to shut out US supplies.

Chinese buyers are hoping that an early and record soybean harvest in Brazil in early 2026 will help ease prices. Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest a record 177.64 MMT of soybeans in the 2025/26 season, around 6 MMT more than the previous year, crop agency Conab said.

Chinese buyers have also not yet entirely written off US supplies, with oilseed processors likely to make purchases for Dec-Jan if there is a trade agreement between the two governments. “If a deal goes through, Chinese buyers will likely turn to US beans for the two-month window, with prices more attractive than South American offers,” said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting.

Soybeans are expected to feature on the agenda for a potential meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. Beijing has, however, yet to publicly confirm the talks.

– US biodiesel group says EPA exemptions on RFS may cost soybean farmers billions… Clean Fuels Alliance America has sent a letter to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and a copy to USDA Secretary Booke Rollins, saying EPA s pending Supplemental Notice on US Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) for 2026 and 2027 may have a major negative impact on the U.S. agricultural economy. US soybean farmers and processors could lose between $3.2 and $7.5 billion in crop value over the next two years if EPA does not completely reallocate recently exempted RFS volumes.

Clean Fuels Alliance America is the largest US trade association for the biomass-based diesel industry. The EPA is co-proposing additional RFS volumes in 2026 and 2027 reallocating completely (100%) or partially (50%) retroactively exempted small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2023 and 2024, as well as those projected to be granted for 2025.

Biomass-based diesel is essential to America s farm security, now more than ever. Domestic biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production supports 10% of the value of every bushel of soybeans grown in the United States, said the letter.

– India’s yellow pea debate intensifies… India s central government ministries are divided on yellow pea imports. While Agriculture pushes for higher duties to shield farmers, Consumer Affairs argues that imports help tame food inflation. The standoff could shape prices and trade flows through 2026, with Canada s pulse crop sector keenly interested, especially after Canadian yellow pea trade was abruptly cut off to China in August via 100% import tariffs.

India s Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has suggested imposing a 50% import duty, while other ministries are still deliberating. The duty-free import policy has been extended to March 2026. It remains to be seen which way the scale will tip.

– Western Australia could reap record harvest as crop estimates rise again… Western Australia will produce nearly 1 MMT more wheat this season than was expected a month ago, according to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA), bolstering expectations for a large Australian harvest that will pressure global prices. GIWA also raised its production forecasts for canola by 490,000 tonnes and for barley by 200,000 tonnes. “The state is on track to come close to or possibly exceed the 2022 season’s record production,” GIWA said. Australia is one of the world’s biggest suppliers of grains and canola, and Western Australia is its biggest export region.

Western Australia alone is now set to produce 12.6 MMT of wheat, a record-high 7.3 MMT of barley and 3.8 MMT of canola, GIWA said. That compares to average production over the last five years of 11.2 MMT of wheat, 5.2 MMT of barley and 2.8 MMT of canola. Harvesting has begun in northern parts of the state and will move south during November and December.

– Aussie lentil area sets record… Lentils are working their way into an increasing number of Australian grower rotations, and over a growing footprint, that has the crop on track to break its production record from its largest ever planting of 1.14 million hectares. South Australia and Victoria grow the vast majority of Australia s lentils, and ABARES estimates both states have planted record areas this year, as has New South Wales.

In Western Australia, where the new variety ALB Burdett is available to slot into the planting window between canola and cereals, area is rebuilding, and the pulse now also being grown in Queensland.

– Trump says US may import Argentine beef to lower prices... US President Trump said Sunday the United States could purchase Argentinian beef in an attempt to bring down prices for American consumers. We would buy some beef from Argentina, he told reporters aboard Air Force One during a flight from Florida to Washington. If we do that, that will bring our beef prices down the Associated Press reported. Trump last week promised to address rising beef costs at the meat counter as part of his efforts to keep inflation in check.

Not happy with Trump s proposal, the US Cattlemen s Association (USCA) Friday responded with a press release. America s ranchers have weathered years of rising input costs, drought and market shifts with unwavering resilience. Today s beef prices are a direct reflection of these challenges. The cost of producing beef today is accurately represented in the consumer markets where it is sold, said Justin Tupper, president of the Association. Ranchers are facing historic highs for feed, fuel, labor, and land…and those costs have risen far faster than beef prices on grocery shelves, said the USCA.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ran up 238.37 points on Friday to settle at 46,190.61, with the S&P 500 gaining 34.94 point to 6,664.01. Early Monday, the December Dow Jones Futures are up 178 points.

Global stock markets are rising moderately this morning as traders placed bets on Japanese stimulus and cheered reports suggesting China s economy was withstanding a US trade war. Data showed China s economy grew 1.1% in the third quarter to top forecasts, while industrial output also beat with a rise of 6.5%.

The December US Dollar Index is up 0.148 at 98.340. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.27 US cents.

Dec crude oil futures are down $0.80 at US $56.35/barrel. Oil prices dipped, pressed by worries over an oil global glut developing for 2026, as US-China trade tensions added to concerns about an economic slowdown and weaker energy demand.

Last week the International Energy Agency said a record oversupply of crude oil will be bigger than previously estimated and the excess is already starting to build up on ocean-going tankers. World oil supply will exceed
demand by almost 4 million barrels a day next year, an unprecedented overhang, the IEA said. That s good news for consumers at the gasoline pump. However, crude oil is the leader of the raw commodity sector. When oil prices are trending lower, as is the case right now, it s a bearish anchor for most of the raw commodity sector, including grains and livestock futures.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 8 to 9 cents/bu higher this morning, bean futures finished similarly higher back on Friday. Nov bean popped 12.75 cents higher last week after holding a test above of $10.00/bu. Soymeal futures are $3 to $4/ton high this morning after gaining $2 to $4 on Friday, and Dec meal finishing $6 higher last week. Soyoil is narrowly mixed this morning after closing 24 to 29 points higher on Friday, with Dec bean oil rallying 116 points higher last week.

Helping support bean futures this morning was Trump over the weekend President stating he was confident in reaching a soybean deal with China and he wants China to buy soybeans at least in the amount they were buying before. But that remains just talk with China still not having bought any new crop US soybeans.

Nov bean futures are up 8.75 cents this morning at $10.28/bu…closing above its 20-day moving average ($10.14) on Friday and currently pressing up into the cluster of its 50-, 100- and 200-day averages (10.25-$10.29). Longer term though…still range trade.

Globally, soybean planting activity in Brazil and Argentina has not caused any notable market-moving issues.

Soybean futures are caught in a tug-of-war: record US domestic crush demand vs lack of Chinese buying interest. Brazil s fast planting pace and China s preference for cheaper South American beans keep a lid on rallies, but short-term upside could come if China s coverage gap forces a few surprise US purchases.

Chicago corn futures are narrowly mixed…though mostly flat to fractionally higher. The corn market held onto gains on Friday, despite pulling off the highs into the close…finishing fractional to 2 cents/bu higher across most contracts. Dec corn was up 9.5 cents last week overall…pushing above its 20-, 50- and 100-day averages…impressive given prices lifting during the gut slot of the US corn harvest. Next level resistance is at $4.30.

Recent futures price action and tightening spreads indicate a smaller US crop is being harvested than previously expected, and US corn exports being stronger than expected.

Globally, the corn market still faces pressure from promising planting seasons in Brazil and Argentina.

US wheat markets are steady to leaking a penny lower this morning. The US wheat complex was mixed at Friday s close…winter wheats mostly a touch higher, but spring wheat steady to a penny lower… MGEX Dec was down 3 cents on the week. Spring wheat cash basis though continues to strengthen…suggestive of underlying demand.

While the wheat market remains oversold, rising global supplies have kept most contracts near the recent lows. That includes larger crops in Canada, Europe, and Russia, and generally favorable projections for production in Argentina and Australia.

Canadian wheat exports surged in the week ended Oct 12 (Week 10) to hit a total of 710,500 tonnes, which pushed total crop year exports to that date to a record 4.28 MMT. Wheat exports are running 532,600 tonnes ahead of last year at this time. Producer deliveries to primary elevators were strong at 474,000 tonnes. This is good news for wheat exports next week as terminal stocks remain adequate for strong exports next week.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures posted small declines again on Friday, adding to Thursday s modest losses. Canadian and Chinese senior officials reportedly discussed canola and electric vehicle tariffs on Friday, but there was no indication of an immediate breakthrough. Canadian canola seed, as well as meal and oil, remain effectively blocked from the Chinese market due to prohibitive tariffs.

The Chicago soy complex was higher on Friday, but European rapeseed was lower and Malaysian palm oil mixed.

November canola fell $1.40 on Friday to $616.20/tonne, and January lost $1.20 to $630.30.

For today… canola futures are trading $5 to $6/tonne higher this morning and pressing the highs posted in the overnight session. Nov canola is up $5.60 this morning at $621.80/tonne…encouraged by recent potential bottoming price action in a move last week back above its 20-day average ($614) and MACD and Stochastics chart indicators trending up. The most futures bounce in October just might have finally broken prices out of a down-channel that’s been dominating the market since the June top.

Canola market price direction has been caught in the middle of trade politics, crush demand, and global oilseed moves. The Canadian canola EU rapeseed discount is wide near $145/tonne…making Canadian canola look comparatively cheap…at least into Europe.

Canadian canola exports for Week 10 for week ending Oct 12 moved up to 159,200 tonnes, double the week before, but still lacking given absence of movement to China (tariffs). Total 2025-26 canola shipments to Oct 12 stood at 955,300 tonnes, which is well down from the 2.336 MMT shipped to this same date last year.

While Canadian-China officials have been talking, it s clear China is holding firm…no reversal on canola tariffs until Canada lifts the EV tariffs. Ottawa says it s conducting an informal review of the issue, but it s tricky politics here balancing Canada West vs EAST priorities…never mind navigating relations with a volatile Trump. Most analysts believe Canada won t make a move until tensions with the US settle, as any shift could spark fresh trade drama south of the border.

As such, the canola outlook remains embroiled in politics which overshadow fundamentals. While Chinese demand for our canola remains stalled, price rallies stay capped. But that said, global vegoil demand remains robust.

On the feed grains… MarketsFarm reporter Adam Peleshaty writes that while demand for Prairie feed grains is ramping up for the fall cattle run, placements at feedlots are happening at a slower pace this year. I think with the good growing conditions we ve had, there was lots of grass out there and I don t think the calves came to market quite as quick as they would in other years, Matt Beusekom of Market Place Commodities Ltd. said.

While demand is slowly increasing, prices for feed grains as of late were flat to lower , said Beusekom. He added that feed barley were being traded in Lethbridge at around $5.44/bu, while feed wheat was priced at $6.80. I think demand will pick up as we move further into fall. Barley and wheat, for sure, Beusekom said. (Demand for) corn is probably decreasing. It costs a little bit more than wheat and barley per tonne.

Large supplies of feed grains should limit price movement over the next little while, he explained.

Delivered cash bids for Alberta feed barley ranged across the province from $4.35 to $5.60/bu (depending on location). In Saskatchewan, bids were steady from $4.25 to $4.75/bu. In Manitoba, prices were $4 to $4.19/bu.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/