AM Market Report – October 2, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are building on yesterday a small rebound with additional $1 to $4/tonne gains being posted this morning. But Chicago soybean futures are easing a penny lower this morning. Beans so far today are not seeing follow-through strength from a late price pop Wednesday following an upbeat social media post on soybeans from US President Donald Trump.

Bean futures rebounded yesterday from below the psychological $10/bu threshold after Trump said soybeans will be a major topic of discussion when he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in four weeks. Traders know that a ‘tweet’ doesn’t mean a sale, but they are grasping for any movement on the topic of soybean exports to China. Soybean prices have been dampened in the past week by concern over China shunning US supplies in favour of imports from South America, just as the US new crop beans are being harvested.

AM Market Report – October 23, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain market bulls are showing some signs of life late…

CBOT corn futures are steady to less than a penny higher right now. Corn traders are still digesting the larger number of US stocks on hand as of September 1.

US wheat markets are mostly 1 to 3 cents higher this morning.

The near-term technical postures for ICE canola, along with US corn, soybeans and wheat futures have deteriorated, which still has the chart-based speculative bears energized. Harvest pressures and the related commercial hedge selling are also likely to keep any grain market rallies constrained for the near-term.

The grain markets so far has paid little attention to the US government shutdown. If the closure starts to cause cancellations of USDA reports, traders will be forced to adjust.

In Other News

– Trump touts he’ll confront China over lack of soybean purchases… CBOT soybean futures rebounded from session lows on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social stating, The Soybean farmers of our Country are being hurt because China is, for negotiating reasons only, not buying. We ve made so much money on Tariffs, that we are going to take a small portion of that money, and help our Farmers. I WILL NEVER LET OUR FARMERS DOWN!

Trump further stated soybeans will be a major topic of discussion when he meets with Chinese president Xi Jinping in four weeks at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.

Chinese importers have not yet bought any soybeans from the autumn US harvest during the trade war between Washington and Beijing, costing US farmers billions of dollars in lost sales. Autumn is the prime marketing season for US beans as farmers bring in fresh crops from their fields. However, China, the world’s top soybean importer, has turned to South America for supplies instead, pressuring US soybean prices.

Trump has ranted on many occasions about restoring stalled US soybean trade with China…and so far it s amounted to literally a hill of beans. Will this time be any different?

– Ukraine raises projection for winter wheat area… Ukraine’s economy ministry has increased its projection for the country’s winter wheat sowing area by 9%, improving prospects for a boost to exports needed to help fund its defence against Russian forces. The sowing area for the 2026 winter wheat harvest is now expected to be at least 12.84 million acres, up from a previous estimate at 11.81 million acres. The increase comes at the expense of corn and sunflower crops that were hit by drought this year and does not include the area for spring wheat, which is usually estimated at 494,000 acres.

The ministry did not provide a forecast for the 2026 wheat harvest, but Ukraine produced 22.5 MMT in 2025. Ukraine exported 15.7 MMT of wheat in the previous 2024/25 July-June season.

Analyst APK-Inform last month cut its sunflower seed harvest forecast for the second time to 12.9 MMT, down from a previous projection of 13.6 MMT. It said that 2025 output could be among the lowest in the past 10 years.

– USDA confirms suspension of its data releases during shutdown… The USDA confirmed it will halt all new data and reports during the US government shutdown. All reports and data releases will cease, a spokesperson told the Wall Street Journal. According to the agency s contingency plan, most USDA employees will be furloughed, with limited exceptions. The government shutdown disrupts the release of key USDA publications, including the weekly US export sales report due today and the October supply and demand report scheduled for next week.

– Indonesia regrets EU’s move to appeal on WTO biodiesel ruling… The Indonesian trade ministry urged the European Union to adopt World Trade Organization’s panel ruling to remove countervailing duties on Indonesian biodiesel imports and regretted the block’s move to appeal the WTO ruling. The European Union said last week it will appeal the WTO panel ruling which backed Jakarta’s claim that the duties levied by the EU, the third-largest destination for Indonesian palm oil products, broke the trade body’s rules.

The EU has imposed the duties, ranging from 8% to 18%, since 2019, saying the Southeast Asian nation’s biodiesel producers benefited from grants, tax benefits and access to raw materials below market prices. The case joins a string of disputes over biodiesel tariffs and palm oil’s link to deforestation, even as the EU and Indonesia finalized negotiations on a free trade deal last month.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 43.21 points on Wednesday to settle at 46,441.10, while the S&P 500 gained 22.74 points to close at 6,711.20. Early Thursday, the December Dow Jones Futures are up a very modest 6 points.

US stock index futures are slightly higher this morning as investors digested the potential effects of the US government shutdown that entered its second day on Thursday. Canada s TSX stock index futures are higher, as are European stock markets.

A drawn-out government shutdown in the US could delay the release of key economic data, including a monthly US payrolls report that had been expected on Friday. In absence of that data, traders put more stock in private US labour market reports that bolstered Federal Reserve rate cut bets.

The December US Dollar Index is up 0.044 at 97.425. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.74 US cents.

November crude oil futures are down $0.59 at US $61.19/barrel. Oil prices are weaker, with the market is torn between competing influences…concerns about more disruption to Russian crude exports (supportive) vs worries about global oversupply (bearish).

Meanwhile, The Group of Seven nations’ finance ministers said on Wednesday they will take joint steps to increase pressure on Russia by targeting those who are continuing to increase their purchases of Russian oil and those that are facilitating circumvention. The G7 finance ministers also said they agreed on the importance of trade measures, including tariffs and import and export bans, in efforts to cut off Russian revenues due to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The joint statement followed a virtual meeting of the finance ministers.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading a penny lower to start this morning…a slight easing back from the 10 to 12 cent rebound gains posted on Wednesday. Soymeal futures are mixed to slightly weaker this morning. Soyoil futures are up a modest 11 to 14 points this morning after rallying 73 to 93 points higher yesterday.

Soy futures shrugged off early session pressure yesterday to rally higher following a Trump tweet that US soybeans will be a major topic of discussion in a meeting between he and President Xi of China later this month. But man…that s it…hardly something to bank on when China continues to shun US soybeans. Soy agri-business has is little appetite for vague Trump talk of China business may return when US harvest activity is picking up and the beans need somewhere to go. The ongoing lack of export demand from China remains a big bearish factor.

US EIA data showed soyoil used in US biodiesel and renewable biodiesel at 1.108 billion pounds in July. That was the highest in 8 months, but slightly below last year.

Chicago corn futures are trading narrow ranges this morning…leaning less than a penny higher. The corn market pushed up off early lows yesterday to end with fractional to a penny gains. Some late session buying came via spillover support from soybeans on a post from Trump.

The weekly EIA report from Wednesday morning showed a total of 995,000 barrels per day of US ethanol production in the week that ended on September 26. That was a drop of 29,000 barrels per day from the week prior and a 20-week low. US ethanol stocks were back down 704,000 barrels to 22.764 million barrels.

Traders are monitoring US harvest activity and the mostly favorable planting conditions in Argentina and Brazil. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates 2025/26 corn production at 58 MMT, which would be their largest on record. CONAB s updated numbers for Brazil s crops are out October 14.

US wheat markets are showing some modest bounce this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents higher, HRW up 2 cents and SRW wheat up 2 to 3 cents. The US wheat complex closed Wednesday on a mixed note for the winter wheats, but finished 5 to 6 cents lower for spring wheat futures (fresh contract lows).

USDA estimated 2.12 billion bu of US wheat stocks in inventory as of September 1, a 6% increase from the same point in 2024 and above analyst expectations. In the USDA’s Annual Small Grains Summary on Tuesday, total US wheat production for 2025 was projected at 1.985 billion bu, less than 1% higher than 2024, and exceeding analyst estimates. Tuesday’s USDA wheat production estimate was bearish for wheat markets.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures managed modest gains on Wednesday, after the market was closed for national Truth and Reconciliation Day a day earlier. Gains in Chicago soybeans and soyoil offered support to canola, which earlier in the day saw the November contract fall below the $600/tonne level. Soybeans drew support from US President Trump s post on Truth Social that he would be discussing the soybean trade with Chinese President Xi Jinping when the pair meet in four weeks. European rapeseed and palm oil were both higher, which provided further support.

Ongoing harvest pressure continues to overhang the market. This week s Manitoba crop report showed the overall harvest in the province at 72% done as of Monday, with canola at 76% complete.

Nov canola futures gained $2 yesterday to close at $607.20/tonne, and January was up $1.50 at $619.70.

For today… canola futures are trading $1 to $4/tonne higher this morning, led by the deferreds contracts. Nov canola is up $1.80 currently at $609.00/tonne…though still stuck in a 3-month downtrend without a clear bottoming signal yet.

Bargain-hunting strength in CBOT soyoil has helped support canola futures yesterday and this morning, though the strength is not overwhelming IMHO. But bean oil futures holding the chart support line at 50 cents/lbs at least offers some hope.

Related outside markets… CBOT soybeans are starting this morning just slightly weaker following a rather impressive reversal higher yesterday…though that was based on a vague Trump tweet expressing a desire to restart US bean sales to China…not actual sales or even something that the trade can count on. EU rapeseed futures are mixed, while Malaysian palm oil is higher.

Meanwhile, Canadian canola has its own trade troubles with China, with new crop season export shipments off to a slow start.

But going back to hope…this is around the time the canola market typically posts seasonal lows…meaning better pricing opportunities may come forward in the weeks ahead…though admittedly, no clear evidence of a bottom yet.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/