AM Market Report – October 16, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are tipping $3/tonne lower this morning following two days of gains. Chicago soybeans are showing 2 to 3 cent/bu gains. Support in beans comes from a stronger-than-expected US soy crush pace and robust demand for soyoil. But the soy complex continues to be weighed down by US-China trade tensions.

CBOT corn futures are wavering around unchanged this morning…moving less than a penny either way. The corn market paused overnight after decent gains on Wednesday that gave the bulls a bit of momentum. However, Dec corn is still in a price downtrend on the daily chart. Disappointing US corn yield reports for this year’s harvest has supported the corn market. Solid demand for US corn also continues to support prices.

AM Market Report – October 23, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain market bulls are showing some signs of life late…

US wheat markets are edging lower…steady to a penny lower on spring wheat futures and down 2 to 3 cents for the winter wheats. The wheats continue to struggle, with no strong, early chart clues that market price bottoms are close at hand. Wheat traders continue to overlook strong demand for North American wheat to focus instead on ample global supplies.

Trading remains largely range-bound as the US government shutdown deprived the market of key US crop data such as weekly export sales and updated USDA supply/demand projections. As a result, traders increasing focus on cash grain markets for direction.

In Other News

– Canadian crop quality looks good this year… Crops samples coming into the Canadian Grain Commission s Harvest Sample Program has been slowed this year because of the Canada Post strike…down to a third of would have arrived by Oct 14 in a normal year.

Still, Canada s chief grain inspector Derek Bunkowsky says the CGC has a pretty good read on crop quality. He said 80% of the Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat samples made the top grade and another 18% graded No. 2. We ve got 98% of CWRS in the top two grades, he said. That s excellent. Protein levels have averaged 13.8% so far, which is in line with the 10-year average. It s a really good story on CWRS, said Bunkowsky.

Things are not looking nearly as good with the Canada Western Amber Durum crop with 22% making the top grade, 27% No. 2 and 37% No. 3. The primary reason for downgrades in the durum crop is severe midge and darkened kernels, he said. The percentage of samples in the top two grades is less than it has been the past few years.

97% of canola samples made the top grade with the remainder being No. 2. There are often no big quality concerns with the canola crop unless there is an early frost, which can lead to elevated levels of distinctly green seeds that cause high levels of chlorophyl in the oil.

27% of the pea samples graded No. 1, with 58% No. 2 and 16% No. 3. That is right in line with what the CGC would typically see with the pea crop. The biggest downgrading factor was colour. 42$ of the lentil samples made the top grade, with 49% grading No. 2. Colour was again the main downgrading factor.

All in all, the 2025 crop is of top-notch quality, except for durum. And yields were a pleasant surprise as well. What I m hearing when I m talking to my contacts in the industry is that there s a lot of quantity, said Bunkowsky. It s a big crop out there.

– Canadian grain/oilseed exports to China slow… Chinese imports of Canadian grain and oilseeds during the month of August dropped dramatically relative to the same month last year. The combined exports to China reached only 243,100 tonnes, which was the smallest in the past nine years. The irony is that China imported more canola in August (113,900 tonnes) than wheat or barley. The Chinese tariffs have certainly negatively impacted canola exports in September, so these numbers are not going to get better in subsequent reports. Japan and Mexico have taken over the mantle of the largest importers of Canadian grains, oilseeds and pulses.

– On again, off again, on again… US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the meeting between President Trump and China s leader Xi Jinping is back on after their latest trade fight, keeping hope alive for a deal on soybeans. Bessent told Fox Business News that Trump will meet with China s Xi at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in South Korea at the end of the month (Oct 31-Nov 1), despite their recent trade flare-up. He [Trump] will be meeting with Party Chair Xi in Korea. There has been substantial communication over the weekend, Bessent offered.

There has yet to be any official acknowledgment from Beijing about a special meeting of the two leaders at the upcoming APEC summit.

A volatile President Trump threatened not to meet with Xi after Beijing announced export controls, but then posted on Truth Social that things will work out with China, that Xi just had a bad moment. Bessent remarked, I am optimistic that this can be de-escalated. Maybe…

– Competing maritime fees volleyed between US and China... The US and China have begun charging competing port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil. Reuters said the new fees will make the high seas a key front in the continuing trade war between the world s biggest economies. China has started collecting the levies on US-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels, but clarified that Chinese-built ships are exempt from the same levies.

Noteworthy that the new Chinese shipping levies do not apply to bulk cargoes of ag products.

Earlier this year, Trump announced plans to levy fees on China-linked ships to loosen the country s grip on the global maritime industry and boost US shipbuilding. Yahoo said an investigation during former President Joe Biden s administration found that China uses unfair trade policies and practices to dominate the global maritime, logistics, and building sectors.

– US Sept soybean crush tops expectations… The US soybean crush jumped in September and hit the fourth highest level for any month on record, according to a monthly US National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report released on Wednesday. NOPA members, which account for around 99% of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 197.9 million bu of the oilseed last month, up 4.2% from the 189.8 million bu crushed in August and up 11.6% from the September 2024 crush of 177.3 million bu. Last month’s crush had been expected to dip to 186.3 million bu, according to the average of estimates from a survey by Reuters.

Numerous US soy processing plants restarted operations in September following seasonal maintenance downtime that was scheduled ahead of the US harvest. US bean crush capacity has swelled in recent years as processors expanded facilities and built several new ones to meet rising demand for soyoil from biofuel makers.

US soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of September 30 dipped to an nine-month low of 1.243 billion pounds, down 0.2% from stocks of 1.245 billion pounds at the end of August, but up 16.6% from the 1.066 billion pounds in stocks a year earlier.

– G.S. Dunn expansion to boost Prairie mustard purchases...A major expansion by G.S. Dunn Ltd. will sharply increase the company s purchases of Prairie-grown mustard as it ramps up production at its Bow Island milling facility. The $30-million project will raise annual raw mustard seed purchases to $44 million from $13 million…all sourced from Western Canada. The expansion has also already opened access to two new export markets in Japan and South Korea.

Founded more than 150 years ago and headquartered in Hamilton, Ontario, G.S. Dunn is the world s largest supplier of milled mustard products, distributing to more than 130 customers in over 70 countries. The company entered Alberta after purchasing and retrofitting the former Spitz sunflower seed plant at Bow Island.

In its September crop production report, Statistics Canada estimated 2025 Canadian mustard production at 141,000 tonnes, down almost 27% on the year.

– US blasts China’s rare earths curbs… Top US officials on Wednesday blasted China’s major expansion of rare earth export controls as a threat to global supply chains, but said Beijing could still change course and avoid steps by Washington to decouple from the world’s second-largest economy. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told a press conference that China’s new export restrictions were a “global supply-chain power grab” and the US and its allies would not accept the restrictions.

However, Greer and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also stressed that Washington did not want to escalate the conflict, which has roiled financial markets and sent US-China relations into a tailspin. As of Tuesday night, US President Donald Trump was still expecting to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month, Bessent said. Greer said China has not yet implemented the revised regulatory system for rare earths and could still back away, just as the US had not implemented a retaliatory 100% increase in tariffs on Chinese imports.

– US aluminum price rise spurs deliveries from Canada… Canadian aluminum producers have increased deliveries to the United States in recent weeks as US prices on the physical market have risen to reflect the 50% import tariffs imposed by President Trump earlier this year. The tariffs levied in June aimed to boost US domestic aluminum production and encourage investment in capacity for the metal used in the power, construction and packaging industries.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 17.15 points on Wednesday to settle at 46,253.31, but the S&P 500 finished up 26.75 points at 6,671.06. Early Thursday, the December Dow Jones Futures are up 112 points.

North American stock market index futures are higher this morning, European stock markets mixed to slightly higher and Asian markets higher overnight. A robust start to Wall Street s earnings season helped offset simmering US-China trade tensions. Wall Street futures are in modest positive territory after a mixed close in US markets yesterday. TSX futures are following sentiment higher after Canada s main stock market registered a fresh record high close yesterday, led by mining stocks.

The December US Dollar Index is down 0.206 at 98.335. The Canadian dollar is edging up against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.29 US cents.

Nov crude oil futures are up $0.22 at US $58.49/barrel. Oil prices are stable to slightly higher as market traders prepared for a potential halt to India s Russian oil imports, which could boost demand for supplies from elsewhere.

US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to stop buying oil from Russia, and Trump said he would next try to get China to do the same as Washington intensifies efforts to cut off Moscow s energy revenues. India and China are the two top buyers of Russian seaborne crude exports, taking advantage of the discounted prices Russia has been forced to accept after European buyers shunned purchases and the US/Canada and the European Union imposed sanctions on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 2 to 3 cents/bu higher this morning. Bean futures were back and forth on Wednesday, with contracts steady to fractionally higher at the close. Nov bean futures are up 3 cents this morning at $10.09/bu. The $10.00 psychological support level will be key for the bulls to defend.

Soymeal futures are very narrowly mixed this morning after ticking up $1/ton yesterday. Meal futures prices are up slightly on the week, but meal bulls need to perform better in order to support any sustained price upside in soybeans.

Soyoil is up 19 to 28 points right now after gaining 23 to 28 points yesterday in the nearbys.

NOPA data from Wednesday showed a whopping 197.86 million bu of soybeans were crushed in the US during September, well above the 186.34 million bu trade estimate. That was a 4.24% increase from August and 11.59% larger than last year s September record. US soyoil stocks were 0.17% below the end of August at 1.24 billion lbs. Suggests demand from biofuel makers remains strong.

Traders will be watching for updates on the US-China trade war, along with field reports as US soybean harvest progress accelerates, likely now past the halfway point nationally.

Chicago corn futures are fractionally mixed this morning. The corn market rose 3 to 4 cents across most contracts on Wednesday. Traders will continue to focus on demand, while the US harvest approaches the halfway point according to many estimates. Yields have reportedly come up short of the USDA s August estimate in some key growing areas.

US wheat markets are weaker this morning…winter wheats down 2 to 3 cents, while Minnie spring wheat futures are steady to a penny lower. The wheat markets tried to edge higher on Wednesday, though contracts leaked lower at the close…spring wheat futures finished 2 to 3 cents lower yesterday.

Minnie Dec spring wheat futures are down 1.75 cents this morning at US $5.49/bu…yet another in a steady streaming of fresh contract low postings. Although spring wheat is eventually going to find a bottom, the current market trend continues to be lower, albeit at a slow pace. Wheat needs a bullish catalyst in order to move higher. The ugly news is that no such catalyst is immediately visible.

The rise in global supply has canceled out some of the support tied to solid demand and oversold technical signals. Canada, Europe, and Russia all saw year-to-year increases in wheat production, and it looks like Argentina and Australia are on track for large crops as well.

On Wednesday, the International Grains Council reported that US hard red winter wheat export prices over the last week, near US $227/tonne, were competitive with other major exporters, undercut currently by French prices at $226/t.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures continued higher on Wednesday, with the market continuing to garner support on China trade hopes.

The market climbed on Tuesday after China s ambassador to Canada said Beijing would be willing to drop its tariffs against Canadian canola if Ottawa dropped its levies against Chinese EVs. Hope for an end to the current trade stalemate remained a supportive influence yesterday, while gains in Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed, and palm oil further underpinned the market.

Reports said tightening Canadian logistics also boosted canola.

November canola finished $4.80 higher on Wednesday at $620.40/tonne, and January gained $4.20 to $634.30.

For today… canola futures have tipped to near $2/tonne lower this morning. Nov canola is down $3.70 at $616.70/tonne, pulling back from the past two sessions of gains to trade at overnight lows. Nov is trying to defend above its 20-day moving average ($614). Optimism over thawing trade relations with China contributed to recent gains, although the lack of any concrete movement to end the stiff tariffs on Canadian canola seed or oil tempered the advances.

A lot of work to do technically to convince anyone that canola futures are breaking out of the longer term price downtrend draw from its June high. We should be near the bottom…and hopefully we ll see some bounce in the market Here s to hoping!

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/