AM Market Report – October 15, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are trading steady to a modest $1/tonne higher to start this morning…still supported by weekend news of China offering to scrap import tariffs on Canadian canola should Ottawa remove its tariffs on Chinese EVs.

US grain futures prices were weaker overnight. Grain market bears are confident at mid-week, as corn hovers near a six-week low, soybeans near a two-week low and US wheat markets near their contract and five-year lows. Near-term technicals are also leaning bearish for the grains.

AM Market Report – October 23, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain market bulls are showing some signs of life late…

Chicago soybeans are fractionally to 2 cents/bu lower this morning, though soymeal is steady and soyoil is slightly higher. Weaker weekly US export inspections, trade tensions between the US and China, higher Brazil soybean output estimates, and US harvest pressures continue to weigh on bean futures. Soy traders worry about the waning prospect of a potential Washington-Beijing trade deal that would revive dormant Chinese purchases of US soybeans.

CBOT corn futures are slipping fractionally to a penny weaker. The corn market continues to chop around, but remains under pressure from the ongoing US harvest.

US wheat markets are mostly down 1 to 4 cents this morning on abundant global supplies. Top wheat exporter Russia has accelerated shipments in the past months after a slow start, and pressure from global harvests has been building.

Meanwhile, the ongoing US government shutdown has deprived market players of crucial data on exports, demand and harvest progress…making traders wary about making big moves in the market.

In Other News

– Prairie dryness, drought ramps up in September… After improvement in August, abnormal dryness and drought expanded across Western Canada in September. The latest monthly update of the Canadian Drought Monitor shows 64% of Prairie agricultural lands were being impacted by abnormal dryness or some form of drought as of the end of September. That s up from 59% at the end of August, although still well below 81% in July.

The worst impacts were felt in the western Prairies. Nearly all of Alberta and western Saskatchewan received less than 25% of normal precipitation in September. On the other hand, eastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba received above normal precipitation, including a portion of southeastern Saskatchewan and parts of southwestern Manitoba, where localized storms brought up to 200% of normal precipitation.

Temperatures were generally 2 to 5 degrees C above normal across all three Prairie provinces in September, with the warmest temperatures being recorded in Alberta.

Overall, drought persisted and expanded in the western Prairies, while moderate improvement occurred in eastern Saskatchewan and southeastern Manitoba, the monitor said.

In central Alberta, expanding pockets of abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions were reported, along with a new pocket of severe drought southwest of Red Deer. Around Edmonton, Lloydminster, and Cold Lake, severe and extreme drought areas grew, while a new area of extreme drought formed east of Edmonton and north of Fort Saskatchewan. Farmers in Ponoka and surrounding districts reported severely parched soils and heavy dependence on irrigation. Feed shortages and poor pastures continue to pressure the livestock sector, the monitor said.

The situation was most critical in northern Alberta, where the Peace Region and north-central areas experienced the greatest deterioration in conditions. Severe and extreme drought expanded, and two exceptional drought pockets developed northwest of Grande Prairie and near Peace River.

In Saskatchewan, western regions received less than 40% of normal precipitation, while parts of the southeast saw more than double their usual rainfall. This helped ease drought east of Regina toward the Manitoba border. However, severe and extreme drought expanded in the central and northern parts of the province particularly west of North Battleford, near Buffalo Narrows, and around La Ronge.

In contrast, southern Manitoba benefited from significant mid-September storms delivering over 100 mm of rain near Steinbach. The moisture erased moderate drought between Portage la Prairie and Steinbach and replenished topsoil in the southeast. Central Manitoba also saw reduced drought intensity, though severe drought conditions near Flin Flon persisted. Northern Manitoba remained mostly dry, maintaining moderate to severe levels of drought.

– Pulse yields coming into focus… MarketsFarm reporter Adam Peleshaty writes that as the Western Canadian harvest finishes, provincial agricultural departments are reporting yields for their pulse crops that exceed Statistics Canada s estimates in many cases.

In Saskatchewan, the province s weekly crop report showed the average field pea yield as of Oct. 6 was 42 bu/acre. That would be well above StatCan s September crop estimate that forecast Saskatchewan pea yields at 35.5 bu/acre and compares with 32.6 bu in 2024. Lentils yielded 1,922 pounds per acre, said Sask Ag. StatCan reported 1,463 lbs/acre for 2025, up from 1,285 the previous year. Chickpeas at 69.2% harvested reported an average yield of 1,817 lbs/acre. StatCan reported an estimate of 1,342, slightly higher than the average of 1,304 in 2024.

Manitoba s field pea harvest was complete with the province reporting an average yield of 60 bu/acre as of Oct. 5. StatCan reported the projected average yield at 49.4, compared to last year s yield of 51.1. Dry beans, grown in the central and east regions reported yield up to 2,000 lbs/acre with some pinto beans reported at 2,500 lbs.

Alberta s field pea harvest was complete as of Oct. 7 and yields were larger than in previous years. The province reported an average yield of 46.8 bu/ac, 33% above the five-year average. StatCan s estimate was 40.2, compared to 35.4 last year. Quality was down with only 9% of the crop graded #1 compared to 24% year. Lentils, grown in the south and central regions…StatCan s estimated average yield was 1,878 lbs/acre, higher than the 1,254 reported last year. Chickpeas have an estimated average yield of 1,781 lbs/acre, compared to 1,400 last year, said StatCan.

– Brazil new soy crop seen at record 178 MMT… Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest a record 177.64 MMT of soybeans in the 2025/26 season, virtually the same as forecast last month, but around 6 MMT more than in the previous year, crop agency Conab said. Conab cited an expected 3.6% rise in the size of the area being sowed with the oilseed, to 121.081 million acres, and noted Brazilian exports may surpass 112 MMT in the new marketing year.

Soybean producers in Brazil are also cautiously optimistic, given the trade war between the United States and China. After the trade war during the first Trump administration, China turned to Brazil for its soybean needs and they never looked back. The current trade war is even more proof that China views the United States as a hostile trading partner and that they will be sourcing most, if not all, their soybeans from South America. China has not purchased any new crop soybeans from the United States, when normally they would have booked 10-15 MMT by now.

China will probably purchase some US soybeans as part of the trade negotiations, but Brazilian farmers are betting that the Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans will remain strong and continue to support soybean prices in Brazil.

Brazilian corn farmers will harvest an estimated 138.6 MMT, virtually the same as Conab had forecast in September. They will plant corn on 56.02 million acres, the agency said, representing a 3.9% rise from the last season.

– Trump targets China cooking oil trade… US President Donald Trump said he was considering terminating some trade ties with China, singling out cooking oil, which traders and analysts said would have little impact as such shipments had already plummeted from China over the past year. “I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution,” Trump wrote on social media on Tuesday.

The US was China’s top market for used cooking oil (UCO), importing a record 1.27 MMT in 2024…a product that can be converted into renewable diesel. But after China cut tax rebates late last year and the US imposed tariffs on Chinese goods this year, imports plunged 65% in January-August to 290,690 tonnes. As such, Trump’s comments would have minimal impact on the commodity, two UCO traders in China said. “Domestic producers are now mainly taking orders for Europe and are no longer considering the US market,” said one of the traders.

– Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell 10% year-on-year in September…Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell to 5.1 MMT in September, 10.1% down on the same month of 2024, according to shipping data provided to Reuters. Seaborne exports accounted for about 90% of Russia’s total grain exports in the last season, which ran from July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025. Total seaborne exports have reached 13.1 MMT so far this season, 20.9% down year-on-year, according to the data. The fall partly reflects the slower pace of this year’s harvest.

– La Nina emerges, slightly raising global drought risks for 2026... A weather-changing La Nina has emerged in the Pacific Ocean, increasing the risk of drought in California and crop-growing regions in Brazil and Argentina, reports Bloomberg. The cyclical La Nina, which occurs when the Pacific’s surface cools and the atmosphere above it reacts, formed last month and will likely last through February 2026, the US Climate Prediction Center said in its latest outlook. The phenomenon is not projected to be strong, so typical impacts could be limited.

“Because we expect this event is most likely to be weak, we would also expect that the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean may not as effectively push the global circulation around,” Michelle, L’Heureux, a forecaster with the Climate Prediction Center, said in an email.

La Nina is closely watched because it significantly shifts weather in ways that can affect agriculture and energy markets globally. The phenomenon increases chances of dry conditions in southern California and parts of South America, potentially spreading drought across southern Brazil and Argentina affecting crop yields. It can also signal cooler weather in Japan, northwest Canada and the US Great Plains and Upper Midwest. The colder temperatures can affect heating demand and, in turn, natural gas markets.

– Large lentil crop sends Australian prices lower… Australian lentil prices have slumped to their lowest levels since 2019, with a global glut of supply and uncertain Indian demand weighing heavily on the market. Large domestic Aussie crops face stiff competition from unexpectedly high Canadian yields. The downturn reflects both record Australian production and a shift in global demand patterns, particularly from India.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences forecasts lentil production in that country will increase 34% to a record 1.7 MMT in 2025 26.

– US Fed Chair Powell says rate cut coming… US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday said in a speech to an economics group that the Fed is on track to deliver another quarter-point cut to US interest-rates later this month. He pointed to the low pace of hiring and said the American job sector may weaken further, adding that further declines in job openings might show up in the unemployment rate. The Fed is scheduled to meet Oct. 28-29. Powell said he and his colleagues are looking to alternative data sources due to the US government shutdown, which is obstructing their read on the US economy.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 202.88 points on Tuesday to settle at 46,270.46, but the S&P 500 dipped 10.41 points lower to 6,644.31. Early Wednesday, the December Dow Jones Futures are up 173 points.

Global stocks recovered some of their recent losses after comments by US Fed chairman Powell bolstered US rate-cut hopes and a slate of positive bank earnings on Wall Street. TSX stock index futures followed sentiment higher after Canada s main stock market rallied sharply up yesterday (up 503 points).

Powell yesterday left the door open to further US interest rate cuts and said the end of the central bank s long-running effort to shrink the size of its holdings may be coming into view.

The December US Dollar Index is down 0.095 at 98.715. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.30 US cents.

Nov crude oil futures are up $0.57 at US $59.27/barrel. Oil prices have ticked higher this morning, despite investors remaining wary amid the International Energy Agency s warning of a supply surplus in 2026 and US-China trade tensions that could curtail demand. Ebbing geopolitical risks and escalating trade tensions could further pressure oil prices which have been trending lower the past 3 weeks.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading fractionally to 2 cents/bu lower this morning. The bean market finished Tuesday steady to a penny higher. Soymeal futures are steady this morning. Soyoil futures are 15 to 28 points higher this morning after doing nothing yesterday.

After the close Tuesday, US President Trump ranted in posted that he is considering terminating (used cooking oil) business with China, as retribution to not buying US soybeans. Doesn t mean much to the market though, as UCO trade has already fallen considerably this year amid the US-China trade war.

US export Inspections data showed 994,008 tonnes of US soybeans shipped in the week that ended on Oct 9, an increase of 26.9% from the week prior, but down 49.9% from the same week last year. China remains MIA in the weekly data, as seasonal movement is being suppressed.

Trade attention remains locked on China, the world s biggest soybean importer, which has halted purchases from the United States and is buying from South America instead.

President Trump and President Xi are expected to meet on Oct 31 to talk tariffs…or will they? It remains to be seen just how much of those talks…if they happen…will be about ag trade, specifically soybeans.

Chicago corn futures are fractionally to a penny weaker this morning. The corn market posted gains of 1 to 2 cents on Tuesday.

USDA tallied US corn export shipments at 1.129 MMT during the week ending on Oct 9. That was 119.74% above the same week last year, but down 33.61% from last week. Marketing year exports for 2025/26 are now 7.94 MMT since September 1, which is 65% above the same period last year.

Traders are monitoring the US harvest pace, as well as planting conditions in Argentina and Brazil.

US wheat markets are fading lower this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are losing 1 to 2 cents, while the winter wheats are down 3 to 4 cents. The US wheat complex strengthened on Tuesday…spring wheat futures closed up 2 cents across the front months. Nearby Dec spring wheat futures are down a penny this morning at US $5.52/bu…continuing to bump along contract lows.

Tuesday morning s US export inspections report showed a total of 444,138 tonnes of US wheat shipped in the week of Oct 9. That was 19% below the week prior, but up 16.85% from the same week last year. The US wheat marketing year total is now at 10.665 MMT shipped, which is 18% above the same period last year.

Wheat futures are oversold at/near contract lows, but any sustained upside could be limited by rising supplies from several competing exporters. That includes larger spring crops in Canada, Europe, and Russia, and the potential for increases in Argentina and Australia. Traders are also watching winter wheat planting weather in Russia and Ukraine. Consultant SovEcon last week raised their Russian wheat production estimate to 87.8 MMT from 87.2 MMT, reflecting record yields in Siberia.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures closed higher on Tuesday, rising on Canada-China trade hopes. China s ambassador to Canada on the weekend said China would be prepared to drop its current tariffs on Canadian canola and other ag products if Ottawa would scrap its own levies on Chinese EVs. The comments offered some hope in the face of the current stalemate, which has effectively blocked Canadian canola shipments to China, a major buyer.

Gains were limited by little change in Chicago soyoil futures and declines in European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil.

November finished Tuesday up $8.20 at $615.60/tonne, and January was $7.50 higher at $630.10.

For today… canola futures are steady to $1/tonne higher this morning.

Traders and growers are hopeful…though qualified hope…that something comes from China s weekend offer to scrap import tariffs on Canadian canola should Ottawa remove its tariffs on Chinese EVs. But it is worth noting comments from Ontario Premier Doug Ford when he responded to the suggestion of canceling Chinese EV import tariffs with “no damn way.” That may be taking some wind out of canola’s sales this morning. Ottawa is caught between a rock and a hard place on this East/West Canada divide.

Related outside markets…CBOT soyoil is modestly higher this morning…maintaining chart support at the 50 cent/lbs level…helped by the Trump suggestion of a Chinese used cooking oil import ban. But soybeans are slightly weaker on Trump s ongoing inflammatory trade war talk regarding China.

Malaysian palm oil futures are slightly higher on word Indonesia is considering an increase in its export tax on palm oil (which would increase demand for Malaysian palm oil). European rapeseed is steady to slightly weaker.

Looking to 2026

With 2026 seeding decisions already on growers minds, China’s nearly 76% tariff on Canadian canola is an important consideration for next year acreage decisions. If China does not resume significant canola purchases, we are going to increase Canadian canola carryout for the 2025-26 marketing year as no other buyer can easily absorb the volume historically shipped to China. Australia s supply potential is limited and Canadian canola remains among the few export sources capable of stepping in if trade resumes, but that’s a big question mark on demand.

Many cropping decisions for 2026, and maybe the next several years, will come down to political developments rather than agronomic fundamentals. Normal supply/demand dynamics seem less applicable right now, as prices are impacted by the political whim of the day, it seems.

Durum Watch

USDA s small grains summary report (Sept 30) had the US durum crop at 2.3 MMT, up from the 2024 crop of 2.2 MMT. European and Canadian durum crops appear to be larger than earlier forecasts. In Europe, Strategie Grains estimated the durum crop at 8.7 MMT. This compares to earlier forecasts of 8.4 MMT and last year s crop of 7.2 MMT. StatCan s model based survey had the durum crop at 6.5 MMT, up from 6.38 MMT last year. Traders believe the Canadian durum estimate of the recently harvested crop may be larger still on better than expected yield.

Interesting to note that Algeria has issued a tender for 50,000 tonnes of durum wheat (first tender of the season), with a deadline of today…offering a first indication of North African demand and pricing sentiment.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/