AM Market Report – October 14, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are trading $1 to $2/tonne higher this morning coming out of the Canadian Thanksgiving long weekend…though now pulling back from overnight session highs. Canola futures did not trade a regular day session on Monday. The domestic canola pace continues strong, but the flow to exports remains slow amid China Canada trade friction.

US grain markets are weaker this morning. Chicago soybean futures are trading 4 cents/bu lower…2-week lows.

AM Market Report – October 23, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain market bulls are showing some signs of life late…

The news on Monday that US President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping will still meet later this month in South Korea, despite threats of increased tariffs on Chinese imports, keeps traders hopeful of a soybean trade agreement. But that seems pretty la-la land wishful thinking given the recent escalation of trade hostilities.

The bean market has been wrestling with the absence of Chinese purchases of the new US crop amid the two countries wider trade war. China s expansion of export controls on rare earth metals on Thursday, followed on Friday by its announcement of retaliatory port fees on vessels owned or operated by US interests, dampened expectations of progress to settle the trade dispute.

US wheat markets are losing 1 to 4 cents this morning…contract and five-year lows. Global crop estimates keep going higher, including large harvests expected in Argentina and Australia in the coming weeks, continue to hang over the wheat market.

CBOT corn futures are a penny weaker this morning…6-week lows. Corn is following wheat lower, with harvest pressure from the US Midwest also adding downward momentum to futures.

News that China has levied more duties on US shipping has grain markets under pressure…though is more retaliation of US tariffs on Chinese shipping. Technical charts have also turned more bearish, which is emboldening the speculative, chart-based traders to play the short sides in grains. At the same time, commercials continue to hedge ag commodities coming from the fields into their elevators.

Markets are treading water…caught between political headlines, light farmer selling, and missing USDA data. Expect harvest reports, South American weather, and ongoing trade drama to steer grain market sentiment near term. Volatility remains high, and until Washington and Beijing cool off, ag
markets will keep ducking punches.

In Other News

– Ottawa faces pressure after China offers deal on canola, EV tariffs…News that China would remove tariffs on the Canadian agriculture sector if Canada drops its levies has prompted swift reaction, and now growing pressure for Ottawa to act. Chinese ambassador to Canada Wang Di made the comments in an exclusive interview with Vassy Kapelos on CTV s Question Period on Sunday. If the EV tariffs are removed, then China will also remove the tariffs on the relevant products of Canada, said Wang.

That comment prompted a quick response from Prairie premiers whose farmers have been hurt by the punishing policies. Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew called this a critical moment in a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said this is a clear signal of how Canada can act this week.

Since these tariffs have come on, no grain or canola has been going to China whether it s seed, oil or meal, said Rick White, President & CEO of the Canadian Canola Growers Association. The opportunity to market is very limited for farmers right now and the price is low as a result, so it s not a good situation for them at this time of year.

But the auto sector has pushed back. Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association, and a member of the prime minister s council on Canada-US relations, says dropping the tariffs on Chinese EVs would mean sacrificing one industry to protect another. We go to the table to negotiate with the Chinese and/or the US as Canada, said Volpe. I expect better leadership from two thoughtful premiers, understanding of course that they re suffering in their provinces and speaking to the people who elected them.

As it stands, Canada tariffs Chinese EVs as well as their steel and aluminium. Beijing has imposed a 76% tariff on Canadian canola seed imports and a 100% tariff on canola oil, meal and peas. China also put a 25% tariff on certain Canadian pork, fish and seafood products.

Ottawa decided to put these tariffs in place to be in line with Washington, and of course we didn t get any brownie points for that, said Guy Saint-Jacques, former Canadian ambassador to China. I think it would be normal for Ottawa to revisit its position.

Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand is set to visit China this week.

– Trump tries to back-pedal on rapid, surprising deterioration in US-China relations… President Trump s administration on Sunday signaled openness to a deal with China to quell fresh trade tensions while warning that recent export controls announced by Beijing last week are a major barrier to talks. Trump wrote on social media Sunday: Don t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn t want depression for his country, and neither do I. The USA wants to help China, not hurt it!!!

That strikes a very different tone from Trump s aggressive comments to end last week.

Trump on Friday announced additional 100% tariffs may be coming for China as well as export controls on any and all critical software beginning Nov. 1, hours after threatening to cancel an upcoming meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea…a phantom meeting the Chinese had not even acknowledged was happening. China late last week added new port fees on US ships, started an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm Inc., and unveiled sweeping new curbs on its exports of rare earths and other critical materials.

China over the weekend said the US should stop threatening it with higher tariffs and urged further negotiations to resolve outstanding trade issues.

The surprising…and grain markets bearish…turn of events came after Trump last Thursday said his end-of-month summit meeting with Xi would have a major focus on China purchasing more US soybeans. The US attempting to walk back the latest trade flare-up with China did somewhat assuage the marketplace. But again…can anyone trust Trump?

Tensions between China and the United States have started to deepen since September, with the two superpowers struggling to move beyond their current trade tariff truce…a 90-day pause from August 11 that ends around November 9.

– American Soybean Association reacts to Trump apparently calling off summit with Xi… The American Soybean Association Friday expressed concern following the news Trump has apparently canceled his planned meeting with Chinese President Xi. ASA President Caleb Ragland, a soybean farmer from Kentucky, said ASA is extremely disappointed that the planned meeting at the end of the month between President Trump and Chinese President Xi is canceled as of right now. ASA was hopeful that these upcoming talks between the United States and China would lead to a deal that would restore US soybean exports to China, traditionally soybean farmers largest export by far. Trade wars are harmful to everyone, and these latest developments are deeply disappointing at a moment when US soybean farmers are facing an ever-growing financial crisis. ASA hopes that talks can be put back on track to restore markets and trade relationships.

– China’s Sept soybean purchases reach near-record… China’s soybean imports in September reached the second-highest level on record, a Reuters calculation of customs data released showed, driven by strong purchases from South America as trade tensions with Washington curbed purchases from the US. The world’s top soybean buyer brought in 12.87 MMT in September, according to the General Administration of Customs, up 13.2% from 11.37 MMT a year earlier. September also marked another month this year in which China’s soybean imports have hit record highs, following May, June, July and August. China’s imports in the first nine months of 2025 totalled 86.18 MMT, up 5.3% year-on-year, the Customs data showed.

That ample supply gives Chinese crushers a comfortable cushion and piles even more pressure on American farmers, who are now bringing in a harvest with their top customer turning elsewhere, said the report.

Most of last month’s soybean imports are expected to have come from Brazil, the world’s top exporter. Data from Brazil’s grain exporter group Anec showed that China imported 6.5 million tons in September, representing 93% of Brazil’s total soybean exports. Late last month, Beijing secured a significant volume of Argentine soybeans, most scheduled for shipment later this year, sidelining US farmers during their critical marketing season. China has not purchased any US soybean cargoes from this autumn’s harvest.

Without a deal in place, US soy exporters stand to lose billions as Chinese crushers continue sourcing from South America. Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump said he hoped to discuss soybeans with President Xi during their month-end meeting in South Korea, but later cast doubt on whether it would happen, dimming hopes for renewed Chinese purchases of US soybeans.

– Canada and India agree to strengthen ties… Canada and India have agreed to a series of steps to strengthen bilateral ties, two years after their diplomatic rupture over the killing of a Canadian Sikh leader on home soil. Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in New Delhi on Monday morning, where the two countries agreed to a new roadmap for Canada-India relations. The ministers recognized that in the context of ongoing global economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions, a strong and resilient India-Canada bilateral relationship is essential, read a joint release.

As part of the agreement, the parties say they will soon begin ministerial-level discussions on bilateral trade and investment. Co-operation on agriculture, science and technology, civil nuclear collaboration, artificial intelligence, critical minerals and energy were also named as priorities.

– Cordonnier cuts US corn yield again… Noted crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his 2025 US corn yield by 1 bu to 181.0 bu/acre, with a neutral-to-lower bias. Corn yields continue to be variable, depending on how
much the corn was impacted by southern rust. We will not know the final corn yield until the harvest is complete, but the story line of the 2025 US corn crop is going to be the impact from southern rust, he says.

Cordonnier s 2025 US soybean yield forecast was left unchanged this week at 52.0 bu/acre, with a neutral-to-lower bias. It is probably too dry in some areas, resulting in soybean seed moisture below 10%. When soybeans are extra dry at harvest, there can be a higher level of harvest loss due to increased shattering and splitting of soybeans that are subsequently blown out the back of the combine, he says.

– US Congress calls out domestic biofuels production policy… A bipartisan group of 47 legislators from both Chambers of the US Congress petitioned the Environmental Protection Agency to finalize its proposal for the US Renewable Fuel Standard Program, which includes measures to discourage the use of imports into the US biofuels market. The group sent a letter to EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, asking him to advocate for the proposal. The legislators say it represents a common-sense approach that puts America s farmers first in line, strengthens US domestic biofuel markets, and delivers tangible economic benefits to rural communities.

– SovEcon raises 2025 Russian wheat crop forecast again... Grain consultancy SovEcon said on Friday it had raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop in 2025 to 87.8 MMT, up from a previous forecast of 87.2 MMT, reflecting record yields in Siberia.

– Russia will reduce wheat sown area in 2025-26… Russia, the world’s leading wheat exporter, is set to reduce its winter and spring wheat sown area by over 6% this year in favour of growing more oilseeds, Deputy Agriculture Minister Andrei Razin said on Thursday. Data presented by Razin confirms the recent trend of farmers abandoning wheat, which they consider less profitable due to low global prices, high domestic export duties and droughts affecting the top-producing areas in southern Russia.

A table shown during Razin’s speech showed that the wheat sown areas will be reduced by 6.2% to 69.7 million acres compared to the previous year and by 6.6% compared to the initial plan for this year.

The oilseeds sown area, including sunflower seeds, soybeans, and rapeseed, seen as more profitable by many farmers, will grow by 8.5%. Russia is also the world’s top sunflower oil producer.

– China keeps grain import quotas unchanged for 2026… China has kept import quotas for four key agriculture products unchanged in 2026 compared to this year, according to a release from the state planner on Thursday. The 2026 import tariff quota for wheat was set at about 9.64 MMT, the notice from the National Development and Reform Commission said. Quotas for corn, rice and cotton were set at 7.2 MMT, 5.32 MMT and 894,000 tonnes, respectively. Imports in excess of those limits are subject to high tariff rates.

– China’s top pig breeder Muyuan Foods raises estimate for volume of piglet slaughtering… China’s biggest pig breeder Muyuan Foods has revised its estimate for how many piglets will be slaughtered this year to between 12 and 14.5 million, up from a range of 8 to 12 million, a stock exchange filing showed on Thursday. Chinese authorities have been calling on the country’s leading hog producers to cut output to stabilise prices amid a supply glut.

– US throws $20 billion lifeline to Argentina… The US is offering $20 billion in financing to stabilize Argentina’s economy and has carried out a rare intervention in currency markets to prop up the Argentine peso. The US Treasury has finalized a $20 billion currency swap framework with Argentina’s central bank and directly purchased pesos to help stabilize the exchange rate. The goal of the US intervention is to help President Javier Milei notch a win in upcoming midterm elections and calm markets unsettled by fears of his leftist rivals returning to power, said a Bloomberg report.

This handout seems very odd to me…Trump never does anything out of the goodness of his heart. There s likely a quid pro quo lurking somewhere under the surface of this arrangement.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average charged 587.98 points higher on Monday to settle at 46,067.58, while the S&P 500 rallied 102.21 points higher to 6,654.72. Early Tuesday, the December Dow Jones Futures are down 334 points.

Global stock markets are lower today as investors grow uneasy over mounting tensions between the US and China ahead of supposed talks between the two countries aimed at striking a durable trade deal. It has been whip-saw trade for Wall Street futures…pointed lower this morning after US markets ended sharply higher Monday, but down hard on Friday.

TSX futures were in positive territory this morning after Canada s main stock market was closed for holiday yesterday…though sold off on Friday.

Statistics Canada on Friday reported Canada’s economy posted a surprise 60,400 net job gains in September, almost entirely reversing the losses of the previous month, data showed on Friday, though the unemployment rate remained at a multi-year high. The jobless rate held at 7.1% from August, when the rate hit a nine-year high outside of the pandemic years. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast job gains of 5,000 and the unemployment rate to edge up to 7.2%.

Canada’s employment gains this year have averaged about 24,000 jobs per month, almost 10,000 less than seen in the previous two years, as US tariffs have either forced job cuts or dissuaded employers from hiring more. The employment increase in September was completely led by full-time work and it increased in 10 out of 16 industry groups, StatCan said.

The December US Dollar Index is up 0.075 at 99.105. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.07 US cents.

Nov crude oil futures are down $1.05 at US $58.44/barrel…a four month low. Oil prices reversed early gains and fell amid uncertainty about trade tensions between the US and China and as the International Energy Agency flagged weaker fundamentals.

Markets are still assessing the potential consequences of the Middle East peace process, the ongoing attacks on Ukrainian and Russian oil installations, and the possibility of reigniting the trade war between the world s two economic behemoths. A hot US-China trade war could slow global economic growth and curb oil demand.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 4 cents/bu weaker this morning to 2-week lows. Bean futures saw a slight recovery on Monday after Friday s sell-off with contracts up fractionally to 2.5 cents at yesterday s close. Nov beans are 4.5 cents lower at $10.03/bu, holding just above psychological chart support at the $10.00 mark. That price support level has been in place since early August. The next support level is $9.90, or the early August lows.

Soymeal futures are up less than $1/ton this morning, clawing back the small declines of yesterday. Soyoil futures are down 37 to 49 points this morning, giving back most of Monday s 53 to 64 point gains…trying to hold support at the key 50 cent/lbs level on the front month Dec contract.

Fundamentally, ongoing trade tensions between the US and China keep a cautious tone over the soybean market. China s soybean imports in September totaled 12.87 MMT, up from the 12.28 MMT in August and 13.2% above the same month last year. None of that was US sourced, with a heavy load from Brazil.

Brazil s soybean production for 2025/26 is seen at 177.64 MMT, a slight drop from the 177.67 MMT seen last month according to CONAB…though still an all-time record large projection.

Chicago corn futures are a penny weaker this morning. The corn market rounded out Monday s session with contracts posting fractional to 2 cent losses.

US corn harvest activity is estimated around 40% complete, with rain in the forecast for parts of the region during the course of this week.

Fundamentally, corn futures are supported by lower-than-expected yield reports in the US Corn Belt, firming price spreads between the December and 2026 contracts, and higher cash basis values. Exports are strong, to start the new marketing year, but the US government shutdown is keeping that data in the dark.

US wheat markets are pressing fresh contract and 5-year lows this morning…spring wheat futures are down a penny, while the winter wheats are 2 to 4 cents lower. The US wheat complex was mostly lower on Monday, with some back months seeing strength at the close…spring wheat futures saw steady trade to half cent losses at the close.

Saudi Arabia purchased 500,000 tonnes of wheat from abroad investors. Algeria also issued a tender for 50,000 tonnes of durum wheat (first tender of the season), with a deadline of Oct 15. South Korea is tendering for 95,000 tonnes of wheat from the US and/or Canada, with a Wednesday deadline.

While wheat futures contracts are oversold, rising global supplies are applying consistent price pressure. That followed increased production in Canada, Europe, and Russia, and includes solid new crop production expectations in Argentina and Australia. SovEcon now has Russia s 2025 wheat crop at 87.8 MMT, 600,000 tonnes more than the last guess thanks to record yields in Siberia.

Usually, the wheat market experiences a seasonal rally bounce in October, but the increase in production from all major exporters has capped any strength.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures finished lower on Friday, with the front-month November contract settling at $607.40 per tonne, down $9.50 on the day. The pullback reflected broad weakness across the oilseed complex to close off last week, with Chicago beans and related products under pressure, while steady harvest progress in Western Canada continued to add nearby supply to the commercial pipeline.

Crusher demand remains a stabilizing factor, but price action into mid-October is tracking external cues: US soy performance, global vegoil moves, and currency swings. Trader will continue not watch updates to Canadian canola yield and export indications for direction into this week.

For today… canola futures are trading $1 to $2/tonne coming out the Thanksgiving long weekend this morning…but fading back from overnight highs. Nov canola is up $1.50 at $608.90/tonne, though still trapped in the longer term price downtrend drawn from the June high ($751) and unable as of yet to get back above its 20-day moving averages ($615).

While ag markets continue to oscillate according to the ongoing shifts to US-China trade tensions/threats, the canola market received some hopeful news on the weekend…an offer by the Chinese ambassador to Canada to remove tariffs on canola IF Canada did the same on EVs. There is a strong push from Western Canada, including from premiers, to take them up on it. But there is resistance obviously from the Ontario-based auto industry and concerns about how such a move would be interpreted by a volatile Trump administration.

This could become a key issue for the near-term canola market outlook depending on how Ottawa responds.

Related outside markets… CBOT soybeans and soyoil are weaker this morning. Bean oil is feeling pressure from a weakening energy sector. Malaysian palm oil futures are also lower on sharp declines in energy markets. European rapeseed futures are also lower.

Fresh weekly Canadian Grain Commission demand data (Week 9) ending Oct 5 paints a mixed picture. Domestic disappearance (crush demand) remains well above last year and 5-year highs. But exports slipped week-over-week to only 80,500 tonnes…half the 5-year low for this week (160,500 tonnes) given the absence of China demand.

Current Canadian canola price discount vs EU rapeseed futures price is around $133/tonne…historically wide…meaning our canola looks cheap. Such a discount could spark export momentum if China tariffs were lifted.

Current attitude of traders… technical downtrend picture has not changed. Chart stochastics have corrected and prices remain under pressure. Sell the rallies remains the view.

On the feed grains… While some producers are sending their feed grain to feedlots, others are going to elevators in northern Alberta for export which are offering higher prices. Some export-oriented elevators in more northerly Alberta locations are putting on price specials as high as $5/bu, which is stronger than the Lethbridge cash price when you back off freight.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/