AM Market Report – November 4, 2025

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In the US White House read-out with respect to US-China soybean trade…China will purchase at least 12 MMT of US soybeans during the last two months of 2025 and also purchase at least 25 MMT of US soybeans in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028.

So, we have heard from the US side but nothing much has come from China. The trade cannot make decisions until China says it has removed the tariff on US soybeans. Chatter is SinoGrain and COFCO (both main Chinese state-owned ag buying enterprises) met this weekend to discuss the deal but no word on what was decided. Now we must watch if China will follow through. If so….would expect the purchases be for Dec/Jan/Feb shipment.

Meanwhile, the US and China will continue to negotiate the terms of the US-China trade deal, with the signing of a memorandum of understanding expected in the next few weeks. However, China has numerous clauses for non-performance, with the most significant being the price competitiveness of non-US soybean/grain offers. China buys what China needs at the lowest price available. That mantra in any China trade deal remains assured.

CBOT corn futures are 3 to 4 cents weaker. The corn market remains well supported by demand, with Monday’s export inspections up 64% compared to a year ago. But traders are hesitant to push the corn market too hard, too fast to the upside, knowing the US harvest still has the potential to be record large.

US wheat markets are mixed…Minnie spring wheat futures mostly fractionally to a penny lower, HRW narrowly mixed to weaker, and SRW wheat is mixed. SRW hit a 3-month high and HRW a 7-week high overnight. Cash wheat basis levels continue to strength on both sides of the border. Traders have reacted positively to the news yesterday that China is showing interest in purchasing US wheat…probably Canadian as well.

In Other News

– Australia set to ship canola to China on trial basis… Australia is set to ship its first canola to China in five years, with a vessel hauling a trial cargo of the oilseed expected to depart for Qingdao in less than a week, Bloomberg reported. A bulk carrier will take on a cargo of about 60,000 tonnes of canola in Esperance, Western Australia, and then head for the port of Qingdao in China s northeast. At least three trial cargoes of the oilseed have been booked by China for the fourth quarter, marking the first shipments since Australia was shut out of the China market in 2020 over phytosanitary concerns.

According to the Australian agriculture department s website, the canola trial is underway, with a view to supplying cargoes containing less than 1% of non-seed material. The trial follows a souring in relations between China and Canada, the oilseed s top exporter. Prior to their dispute, almost all of the 6.39 MMT of canola imported by China in 2024 came from Canada.

– Russian wheat export prices are stable… Russian wheat export prices have remained stable for the second week in a row, and analysts say exports are accelerating. The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the first part of December was at US $230.50/tonne at the end of last week, unchanged since the end of the previous week, said the IKAR consultancy. The SovEcon consultancy estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content at $230 to $233/tonne FOB compared with $230 to 231 a ton the previous week.

“Exports were supported by the recovery in global demand for wheat and the growth in exporters’ margins,” SovEcon said in a report. According to analysts, exporters’ margins were negative at the beginning of October, but reached $4/tonne by the end of the month.

SovEcon left unchanged its estimate of October Russian wheat exports at 5.1 MMT. IKAR estimates that wheat exports in October may reach 5.7-5.8 MMT, while a week earlier the estimate was 5.5 MMT.

Analysts expect active exports in November, with weather not yet hindering shipments despite the expected stormy period this month. The preliminary estimate of wheat exports from IKAR in November was 5.3-5.5 MMT.

SovEcon said on Monday it had again raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat exports for the while of 2025-26 by 0.4 MMT to 43.8 MMT, reflecting improved crop estimates and a pickup in export activity. Russia s wheat harvest is now seen at 87.8 MMT, SovEcon said.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 226.19 points on Monday to settle at 47,336.68, but the S&P 500 rose 11.77 points to 6,851.97. Early Tuesday, the December Dow Jones Futures are down another 286 points.

Global stock markets are sliding lower this morning, with investors aggressively booking profits following strong tech-led rallies over recent weeks. Wall Street futures are in negative territory after a mixed close on US markets yesterday. Canada s TSX stock index futures have followed sentiment lower ahead of the federal budget being tabled this afternoon.

People are turning cautious about these circular transactions around AI, with Nvidia at the centre of everything, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG. It s concerns about all the capital spending that s been spent, without knowing where the revenue is going to come from.

The December US Dollar Index is up 0.248 at 99.955. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.08 US cents.

Dec crude oil futures are down $0.66 at US $60.39/barrel. Oil prices fell on OPEC+ s decision to pause output hikes in the first quarter next year, along with weak manufacturing data and a stronger US dollar weighed on the market.

The succession of poor manufacturing PMIs from Asia and then the US ISM is a worry for oil demand. So is the ever-present market-upsetting tariff threat, said John Evans, analyst at PVM Oil Associates. The renaissance of the US dollar is another suppressant for oil prices at the moment, and we anticipate a resumption of a grind lower in the here and now.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 12 to 17 cents/bu lower to start this morning…a stark rebuke of Monday s rally to 16-month highs. Bean futures yesterday posted 16 to 21 cent gains across the front months. Soymeal futures are down $3 to $4/ton this morning, easing back following a spectacular last half October rebound rally. Soyoil futures are losing 55 to 58 points this morning…reasserting a prevailing downtrend following the brief 104 to 116 point spike higher posted on Monday.

Traders continue to merit last week s negotiated trade truce between the US and China…and whether soybean export because will actually results as the political rhetoric suggests. Trump claims big soy business is coming, though the Chinese are far more muted on what to expect.

US export inspections data yesterday showed 965,063 tones of US soybeans shipped in the week that ended October 30, which was a drop of 16.8% from the week prior and 58.3% below the same week last year. Marketing year shipments since Sept 1 have totaled 7.78 MMT, a 40% decline yr/yr given the lack of China business.

The US soybean yield is estimated at 53.6 bu/acre according to StoneX, a 0.3 bu reduction from last month. USDA will be out with their data next Friday (Nov 14) according to a release last week.

Soyoil purchases are moving higher in the fourth quarter, as the US biofuels market moves away from beef tallow as a feedstock. The EPA is under court order to provide the US biofuels industry with an update on reallocation of volume obligations from small refinery exemptions by November 7.

Chicago corn futures are down 3 to 4 cents this morning. The corn market posted 2 to 4 cent gains across most contracts on Monday, shrugging off early weakness to start the week…but giving those gains back this morning.

Fundamentally, the corn market remains underpinned by demand. USDA tallied US corn export shipments at 1.669 MMT during the week ending October 30. That was 34.31% above the week prior and more than double the same week last year. Marketing year exports since Sept 1 for 2025/26 are now 12.257 MMT, which is 63.99% above the same period last year.

StoneX estimates the 2025 US corn yield average at 186 bu/acre, an increase from the 185.9 bu last month…which seems a bit odd with all the trade chatter the crop did not finish well. The USDA says it will release a supply, demand, and production update on Nov 14. It remains to be seen if the US federal government will be fully re-opened by that point, but ag commodities in general were at least a little encouraged by the news about fresh, major data points actually being on the calendar. One of the big questions is how aggressively the USDA will adjust yield.

US wheat markets Wheat are mixed this morning, with contracts mostly weaker in the hard red contracts…spring wheat fractionally to a penny lower, HRW steady to 2 cents lower, and SRW wheat mixed. US wheat markets closed with strength on Monday, with all three markets closing higher…spring wheat futures saw 4 to 6 cent gains at yesterday s close.

Monday s US export inspections report showed a total of 350,293 tonnes of US wheat shipped in the week of Oct 30. That was 30.02% above the week prior and 60.96% above the same week last year. The US marketing year total since June 1 is now 11.825 MMT of wheat shipped, which is now 20.51% above the same period last year.

A report from Bloomberg shows that China is looking to buy wheat from the US…and possibly from Canada.

Canada and US cash wheat basis offering continue to strengthen, a signal of underlying commercial demand.

Traders continue to monitor US winter wheat development weather and global growing conditions. Globally, that includes winter wheat planting and development weather in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, in addition to late development and early harvest activity in Argentina and Australia. There s some buying interest around these price levels, but the rising world supply remains a big bearish factor.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

Strength in Chicago soyoil and weakness in the Canadian dollar helped propel ICE canola futures strongly higher on Monday. CBOT Soyoil and soybean futures both climbed amid increasing optimism that last week s trade deal between the US and China will lead to additional Chinese purchases of American beans. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar dropped to a three-week low against its US counterpart.

On the other side, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil futures both closed lower.

January canola rallied $10.90 higher yesterday to close at $647.90/tonne, and March was up $11 at $659. The rally in canola pushed the Jan futures contract above its 50 day moving average ($637).

For today… canola futures are retreating $8/tonne lower this morning. Benchmark Jan canola is down $8.10 at $639.80/tonne, giving back most of Monday s big gain. Jan is still holding above its 50-day moving average, but less convincingly so this morning amid a general risk-off trading environment spreading across most markets to start the day…with it inspiring a pause in the soybean rally.

General weakness across the US soy complex and energy markets are weighing on canola values. Soyoil provided the spark for the canola rally on Monday, but all markets are fading back this morning.

Malaysian palm oil futures are slightly higher this morning…but that comes off a steep retreat over the past three weeks to its summer lows. CBOT soyoil is pulling back with the rest of the soybean complex on the general risk off tone. European rapeseed is again quietly lower.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/