AM Market Report – November 3, 2025

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Traders remain cautious over how China s soybean purchasing pledge will translate into actual US exports. Confirmation from China is still pending. Until this happens, the upside potential for soybean prices from here might be limited. If China comes through as the White House suggests…then further price upside can be realized.

CBOT corn futures are up a penny this morning. Corn prices are underpinned by demand and capped by US harvest pressure.

US wheat markets are posting gains…up 2 to 7 cents. The market got a boost overnight on weekend news China wants to buy US wheat (see item below).

The technically bullish weekly and monthly high closes in soybean, soymeal, SRW wheat and HRW wheat futures markets Friday have the chart-based bulls fired up to continue to be buyers early this week. But don t be surprised to see some corrective selling at some point this week on short-term technically overbought conditions…especially on soybeans/meal.

In Other News

– Carney meets China s Xi in Korea… While at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders Meeting in South Korea last week, China President Xi Jinping met with both US President Donald Trump and Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney. The Trump-Xi meeting resulted in some movement of soybean buying by China, however, the Carney-Xi meeting concluded with less tangible results.

The Prime Minister’s office did publish a statement following the Carney-Xi meeting saying that the two countries had “affirmed their commitment to renewing the relationship between their two countries in a pragmatic and constructive way.”

The leaders agreed that their meeting marked a turning point in the bilateral relationship, the first official meeting between a Canadian PM and Chinese president since 2017. According to the meeting read out, both leaders directed their officials to move quickly to resolve outstanding trade issues and irritants, the PMO says. They also discussed solutions to respective sensitivities regarding issues including agriculture and agri-food products, such as canola, as well as seafood and electric vehicles.

“The leaders also discussed a framework to deepen cooperation across a range of areas…from clean and conventional energy, to agriculture, manufacturing, climate change, and international finance,” the PMO says, adding that Prime Minister Carney accepted President Xi s invitation to visit China at a mutually convenient time. He looks forward to advancing progress on these key issues between Canada and China and strengthening ties between the two countries.

– American agriculture groups call for full renewal of CUSMA trade deal…American food and agriculture groups are calling for a full 16-year renewal of the Canada-United States-Mexico-Agreement (CUSMA). In a letter, released Oct. 30, 124 organizations representing the American food and agriculture value chain expressed support for the agreement, which it claims allowed agricultural exports from the United States to soar.

The letter argues CUSMA has helped not only American farmers, but has also facilitated a flow of commerce between all three countries. Many US agricultural commodities benefited from new or expanded market access in both Canada and Mexico, amplified by the preservation of the zero-tariff provisions retained in USMCA, the groups said. Any adjustment should be carefully considered in order to avoid negative impacts on agriculture.

It points out Canada is the largest or second-largest market for many American agricultural products like feed, processed foods and biofuels. The groups also argued that American family farms depend on the stability from CUSMA for multi-year planning and without it, farmers will be saddled with more costs related to transportation and compliance.

Our organizations are deeply reliant on trade, and our closest neighbors are the strongest trading partners for US agriculture and its continued success, the letter says. We stand ready to provide the expertise needed to maintain US leadership within USMCA and advocate for the continued trade certainty that it provides.

CUSMA was originally negotiated in 2018 and is set for review in the summer of 2026.

– US Supreme Court poised to hear Trump tariff challenge this week… a challenge is coming to a head this week that could throw a legal roadblock in front of US President Donald Trump’s efforts to realign global trade through tariffs. The US Supreme Court is set to hear arguments from US businesses and states that say Trump’s use of a national security statute…the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA)…to hit nearly every nation with tariffs is illegal.

The act gives the US president authority to control economic transactions after declaring an emergency. It does not mention the word tariff and the US Constitution reserves power over taxes and tariffs for Congress. The hearing combines two cases pushing back on Trump’s so-called “reciprocal” tariffs and his fentanyl-related duties on Canada, Mexico and China. The case landed at America’s top court after both the United States Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit and the US Court of International Trade ruled the tariffs exceeded the powers included in IEEPA.

Trump hit the world with his “Liberation Day” duties after declaring an emergency due to persistent US goods trade deficits. Trump declared fentanyl-related emergencies at the borders to slam Canada and Mexico with economy-wide duties. Those tariffs so far do not hit goods compliant with the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement on trade.

– Sask Crop Report: Higher yields reported for many crops… Saskatchewan saw higher than average yields and good quality for most crops in 2025 as harvest operations wrap up for the season, reported the provincial agriculture department in its last weekly report for the year. The provincial harvest was virtually complete at 99%, said Saskatchewan s weekly crop report released on Oct. 30. This year s crops were harvested later than usual due to rainfall throughout the growing season and uneven crop staging. Cool July temperatures slowed development, but crop staging evened out and prevented harvest delays. Pests like bertha armyworm, cabbage seedpod weevil and Richardsons ground squirrel also posed challenges in some regions.

All crop types in Saskatchewan yielded higher than their 10-year averages. Winter wheat crops yielded 44.1 bu/acre and fall rye yielded 52.6 bu/acre. For spring cereal crops, oats had the biggest yield at 94.4 bu/acre, followed by barley at 70. Hard spring wheat was 51.5 bu/acre and other spring wheat was 55.5. Durum yielded 39.4 bu/acre and triticale yielded 25.3. Canary seed saw 1,354 pounds per acre, while field peas were at 40.8 bu/acre, lentils at 1,785.5 lbs/acre. and chickpeas yielded 1,716.2 lbs/acre. Oilseed crops were the last to come off, yielding 42.4 bu/acre for canola, 39.6 for soybeans, 26.6 for flax and 880.1 lbs/acre for mustard.

Most crops graded in the top two quality categories, but some downgrading was reported due to dry conditions, pest activity and late-season rain. Canola quality was higher than the 10-year average as crops graded 86% 1 Canada, 13% 2 CAN and 1% 3 CAN. For pulses, field peas graded 41% 1 CAN, 52% 2 CAN and 7% 3 CAN, while lentils graded 22% 1 CAN, 59% 2 CAN, 17% 3 CAN and 2% Sample.

Spring wheat was rated as 63% 1 Canada Western, 29% 2 CW, 6% 3 CW and 2% CW Feed, while barley was rated as 27% malt, 60% 1 CW and 13% 2 CW and Sample.

Cropland topsoil moisture was rated at 4% surplus, 55% adequate, 33% short and 8% very short. Significant rainfall and snow are needed in the coming months to replenish soil moisture levels for next spring, especially in western regions.

– Chinese buyers purchase Brazilian soybeans… Chinese soybean importers have stepped up purchases of Brazilian cargoes in recent days as South American prices eased on expectations a US-China trade deal will lead to a resumption of US sales to the world’s largest soybean importer. Buyers have booked 10 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for December shipment and 10 for March-July with South American prices now quoted below offers being made for US cargoes, three traders said on Monday.

Brazilian soybeans had traded at higher prices than US supplies in recent weeks as steep Chinese tariffs curbed demand for US beans. “Brazil is now cheaper than US Gulf, and buyers are taking this opportunity to book cargoes,” said a trader at an international company that runs oilseed processing plants in China. “We are seeing increased demand for Brazilian beans since last week.”

Beijing agreed to expand farm trade with Washington after US President Donald Trump met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea last week. The White House subsequently released details of the agreement revealing China will purchase at least 12 MMT of US soybeans in 2025 and at least 25 MMT in each of the next three years. Though the market is trying to figure out if that first 12 MMT target for 2025 includes the 5.9 MMT already sent to China in the first half of the calendar year.

And to further put this deal in perspective, China had typically been purchasing 25 to 30 MMT from the United States in recent years, but shipments dried up in recent months due to a trade spat between the two countries.

The problem now with this new agreement is that it is not signed, sealed or delivered. When/if the documents of this deal are finalized, it will be interesting to see how many loopholes are present in the text. In case you are wondering, I m taking the under on the Chinese soybean imports from the US over the next four years.

But the market is now awaiting announcements from Chinese authorities on potential reductions in import tariffs on US agricultural products. “We have heard from the US side but nothing much has come from China,” said a second trader at a global trading company. “We cannot take trading decisions until China says it has removed the tariff on US soybeans.”

China’s state-owned COFCO made the country’s first purchases from this year’s US harvest last week, buying three cargoes (~180,000 tonnes).

– Canada s two major pea customers employ import tariffs… There is a difference between the Chinese and Indian pea tariffs…the ones imposed by China earlier this year were political, while the duties imposed by India are designed to protect its domestic farmers. It does not make much difference for a Western Canadian pea producer…a tariff is a tariff. India s 30% tariff impacts all countries, including Canada. The 100% Chinese tariffs on yellow peas and 75.8% tariffs on canola are in retaliation for Canadian duties on Chinese electric vehicles and steal.

China and India make up 80% of Canada s pea export market. There are other markets to sell to, but nothing compares to those two countries.

The Chinese trade tariffs have already caused domestic yellow pea prices to drop 43% since spring. More peas may have to head to the feed market, which would impact prices for other grains.

– Western Prairies shortchanged on precip Again in October… Much of the western Canadian Prairies was drier than normal through October, further increasing the need for moisture going into the winter. As shown on the 30-day map below, most of Alberta and western Saskatchewan remained stuck in the same dry pattern that has dominated the fall season in particular. The 60-day map shows an even starker divide between the drier western Prairie and the eastern areas, where precipitation has been more plentiful.

The final Saskatchewan crop report for the 2025 growing season on Thursday pegged provincial cropland soil moisture at 4% surplus, 55% adequate, 33% short and 8% very short as of Oct. 20, a modest improvement over 49% adequate, 44% short and 7% very short last year. However, soil moisture levels on the western side of the province remain troublesome, with the southwest and west-central regions reporting soil moisture at 76% and 74% short to very short, respectively. The northwest region was 61% short to very short.

Current topsoil moisture levels vary in the province but in general, the eastern half has sufficient soil moisture levels, and the western half has drier soil conditions, the Saskatchewan report said.

– Canola crush tops 1 MMT in September… The Canadian canola crush increased from the previous month in September, topping 1 MMT. A Statistics Canada crush report pegged the national canola crush for September at 1.007 MMT, up 16% from the August crush of 867,944 tonnes and about 8% higher than the same month last year.

Two months into the 2025-26 canola marketing year, the cumulative crush stood at 1.875 MMT as of the end of September, just over 5% ahead of the same period a year earlier.

Ag Canada said the 2025-26 canola crush forecast contains some further upside, depending on the completion of processing plants under construction in Western Canada and their becoming fully operational.

– China wants to buy US wheat... China is seeking to buy US wheat in what would be the first purchase in more than a year, following last week s trade truce between the two nations, Bloomberg reported. A major grains importer in China made inquiries over the weekend for US wheat cargoes loading from December to February, according to people familiar with matter, who asked not to be named as they aren t authorized to speak to media. China hasn t bought any US wheat since early October of last year, according to USDA data, and the inquiries come after the Asian nation resumed purchases of US soybeans last week.

China will suspend all levies announced since March 4 on US agricultural products, according to a White House fact sheet released over the weekend. The fact sheet is the most detailed account yet regarding the US-China trade truce made during the summit meeting between Presidents Trump Xi Jinping last week. The apparent renewed interest in US wheat comes as China s overall imports of wheat have fallen to less than a third in the first nine months of this year from the same period in 2024 as Beijing moved to bolster domestic prices due to sluggish demand and ample supply.

– Pakistan reopens door to Canadian canola… Canadian canola growers have regained access to what was once a significant market. Pakistan is reopening its doors after three years of shutting out canola and other genetically modified crops. Pakistan had purchased as much as 1.35 MMT of Canadian canola in a given year. Annual imports averaged 810,000 tonnes between 2015 and 2020. However, in late 2022, Pakistan s Department of Plant Protection began requiring import licenses to support the arrival of GM crops, which stymied trade.

Renewed demand from Pakistan couldn t happen at a better time because Canada is shut out what until this year was a 5 MMT/year market to China. The trade is also keeping a watchful eye on Mexico, the European Union and Japan…anticipating an increase in some of those markets. While gains to other export markets are not likely to completely offset the current situation of lost demand to the China juggernaut, there will be opportunities in other markets now that Australia and others will be servicing Chinese demand.

– Urea prices heading higher… Farmers might want to consider locking in some portion of next year s urea needs at today s prices, says fertilizer market analyst David Pupo, as he believes the urea market has turned decidedly bullish. The underlying trend is up, he said during a webinar hosted by AGvisorPRO.

Urea prices have been volatile in 2025. They were bearish in the summer but recently found support due to a variety of factors. The biggest one was China suddenly suspending urea exports on Oct. 15. This is going to support global prices into 2026, he said.

In the meantime, there has been solid demand from India due to good monsoon rains, falling domestic urea production and weak imports early in the year. Recent Indian import tenders have been huge, involving millions of tonnes, and prices have been creeping higher.

Meanwhile, Brazil s fertilizer demand continues to be strong despite shrinking farm margins due to the continued expansion of corn and soybean acres.

Pupo takes his cues from urea prices in New Orleans, which were up 4% in October and 23% on the year. Forward pricing in December and January are also climbing. The market is expecting strengthening prices today, he said. Bids in Saskatchewan range from $765 to $805/tonne. He believes there is a market foundation that will support prices through the first quarter of 2026.

However, he does not advise producers to lock up all their urea needs and put it in storage because anything can happen between now and March in this volatile market.

– Canada’s GDP contracts in August… Canada’s GDP contracted in August against a consensus estimate of flat growth, data showed on Friday, though an advance estimate suggested the Canadian economy might escape a recession in the third quarter. The economy shrank by 0.3% in August following upwardly revised growth of 0.3% in the prior month, Statistics Canada said, effectively nullifying any growth so far in the current quarter. This was the fourth monthly contraction in five months and was led by a drop in growth in both the services and goods sectors.

An advance indicator suggested that the monthly GDP would likely expand by 0.1% in September, taking the total annualized growth of the third quarter to 0.4%. The advance estimate is not always accurate and could change. But a likely growth in GDP in the third quarter, which hinges on the economy boosting its output in September, means Canada could avoid slipping into recession. Two quarterly contractions in a row are considered to constitute a recession.

Canada’s GDP had shrunk in the second quarter by 1.6% as the impact of tariffs and general trade uncertainty reduced exports and hurt growth.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved up 40.75 points at Friday s close to finish at 47,562.87, while the S&P 500 settled up 17.86 points at 6,840.20. Early Monday, the December Dow Jones Futures are down 41 points.

Global stock markets are a mixed bag to start this morning…still debating the merits of a US-China trade truce and surging investment (bubble?) in artificial intelligence, ahead of another earnings-packed week.

Wall Street futures are mixed…Dow weaker, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq are higher) after US markets closed out October higher. TSX futures followed sentiment higher, after Canada s main stock index notched its sixth straight monthly advance on Friday, the longest such streak since 2021.

Investors cannot rely on the usual economic touchstone in the first week of the month…the monthly US jobs report (US gov t still shutdown)…and instead will have to look at private-sector employment and at the labour components of surveys of business activity due this week.

The December US Dollar Index is up 0.135 at 99.765. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.18 US cents.

Dec crude oil futures are down $0.03 at US $61.09/barrel. Oil prices are steady/mixed/slightly weaker even after OPEC+ decided to hold off production hikes in the first quarter of next year, which eased rising fears of a supply glut. But weak factory data in Asia capped the gains.

RBC Capital s head of commodities strategy Helima Croft noted that Russia remains a key supply wild card in the wake of the US imposing sanctions on top producers Rosneft and Lukoil as well as the continuing strikes on the country s energy infrastructure as part of the Ukraine war. There is ample ground for a cautious approach given the uncertainty over the [first quarter] supply picture and the anticipated demand softness, she said.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are inching 1 to 4 cents/bu higher this morning, led by the nearby Jan contract, and building on the impressive rebound rally of the past 3 weeks. Bean futures posted gains of 7 to 9 cents across most contracts on Friday, helping to push the weekly gain to 55 cents for Jan.

The big question in the trade…is last week s US-China trade agreement and commitment on soybean trade for real and how long will it last? Can soybean prices continue to rise from last week, or will traders want to see more sales to China before being convinced of the deal? China is still buying a lot of beans from Brazil.

Soymeal futures are flat this morning after rallying $4 to $6/ton on Friday, with Dec meal rallying $27.50 on the week and up 14 straight sessions. Although US soymeal supplies are expected to stay high, the rally indicates strong demand. Soyoil futures are down 25 to 31 points this morning after finishing 68 to 97 points lower on Friday, with the Dec contract falling 159 points last week.

EIA data showed a total of 1.041 billion lbs of soyoil used in US biodiesel production in August. That was down 14.48% yr/yr and 6.09% below July. It was also 39.15% of the total US biodiesel feedstock in August, which was the highest inclusion rate since September 2023.

AgRural estimates the Brazilian soybean crop at 47% planted, as of Thursday, now behind the 54% pace from last year. Fundamentally, planting and crop weather in Brazil and Argentina are now favorable, but drier weather is forecast later this month for both countries, which will be closely watched.

Chicago corn futures are inching a penny higher this morning. The corn market posted steady to 1 cent/bu gains across most contracts on Friday, with the Dec contract up 8 cents on the week.

The corn market has been gaining positive momentum, supported by bullish trade announcements in the soybean market…seemingly a head-and-shoulders bottom chart formation posted this fall season.

Traders will watch for signs of sustained strong demand. US farmers are nearing the end of what could still be a record-large harvest, despite reports of yields lower than expected.

Argentina s corn crop was pegged at 35% planted, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Brazil s AgRural estimates that country s first corn crop as 60% planed as of Thursday, now just 1 percentage point ahead of last year.

Corn s market foundation appears firm…strong US ethanol demand and brisk exports are positives, but global trade dynamics and competition from Black Sea origins remain the wildcards.

US wheat markets are rising this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are up 1 to 3 cents, HRW is up 3 to 4 cents and SRW wheat is mostly 4 to 7 cents higher. The US wheat complex posted strength to close out Friday and the month…spring wheat futures finished 2 to 3 cents higher Friday in the front months, though Dec did slip 4 cents on the week.

Lifting wheat markets this morning…a report from Bloomberg suggesting China is looking to buy US wheat. But futures buying interest seems more directed to the winter wheats rather than spring wheat. HRS futures have shown the least interest in notching short-covering strength. But the recent downtrend from the June high appears to have stalled for now, evidenced by chart consolidation since the Oct. 21 low. We wouldn t be surprised to see a heftier upside correction eventually, though a catalyst will be required.

US futures contracts remain oversold, but US wheat is now priced above some key export competitors, which could cut into what has been decent demand during the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year.

US winter wheat development weather and conditions in the Southern Hemisphere are mostly favorable. It looks like both Argentina and Australia are on track for big crops, and the trade s also watching winter wheat development weather in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.

Big global supplies and lack of any large weather concerns continue to cap gains, though any moisture shortfall in key regions could quickly flip the script.

Canadian wheat exports are running at a record pace through the first 12 weeks of the 2025/26 (Aug/Jul) marketing year, according to the latest weekly grain handling statistics from the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC). While wheat exports during the week ended Oct 26 (Week 12) of 364,600 tonnes were down by 23% from the previous week, the crop year-to-date total of 5.1 MMT compares with 4.5 MMT at the same point a year ago and marks the fastest time Canadian wheat exports have topped 5 MMT on record.

Barley exports are also running at a solid pace at just over 1 MMT through 12 weeks. That compares with only 543,700 tonnes at the same point a year ago.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures ended with significant losses on Friday, undermined by sharp declines in Chicago soyoil futures.

Canola followed soybean futures higher earlier this week, but while soybeans were higher again Friday, the canola market gave into the losses in soyoil to close out the week. Palm oil was also lower on Friday, while European rapeseed was mainly lower. On the other side, crude oil gained Friday, while the Canadian dollar weakened.

January canola dropped $11.50 on Friday to close at $637/tonne (up $4.50/t for the week), and March was down $11.80 at $648.

For today… canola futures are down around $1/tonne this morning, with the benchmark Jan contract losing $1.50 at $635.50/tonne, adding to Friday s sharp decline.

Some positive rhetoric from the Carney/Xi meeting in South Korea last week, but as of yet no resolution to troubled Canada-China trade on canola as recently imposed import tariffs remain entrenched. There was a dubious report last week that two cargoes of Canadian canola were headed to China…though the crushed oil would be re-exported to avoid the embargo. Not sure I buy the story.

Canola seems to be following the lead of continued decline in world vegoil markets (soy/palm). Palm oil is sharply lower with a slower demand period approaching. EU rapeseed futures are also slightly softer this morning.

Bean oil is down yet again…pushing below 49 cents/lbs…on continued spreading with soymeal not helping. It still appears to be selling related to either the delays in increasing US biofuel demand thanks in part to the government shutdown and/or concerns that improved relations with China will result in additional used cooking oil imports. Regardless of the cause, support at 50 cents/pound failed to hold prices up…chart looks bearish.

Canadian canola exports came in at a still disappointing 155,500 tonnes for the week ended Oct 26 (Week 12), according to the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC), though up 25% from the previous week. However, the crop-year-to-date total of 1.2 MMT remains well below the 2.9 MMT shipped to the same point a year ago. At the current pace, yearly canola exports are only on target to hit 5.2 MMT. That compares with total 2024/25 canola exports of about 9.5 MMT.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/