AM Market Report – July 24, 2025 | The Western Producer

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures were trading slightly higher overnight, but in the past 20 minutes have now turned $2/tonne lower. Chicago soybeans are mostly up 3 cents/bu currently, with the products (oil/meal) also edging higher. Beans futures trade remain confined within a trading range border by its major moving averages (20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day)

Chicago corn futures are rising a penny or two this morning. The corn market is trying to stabilize after its early-week sell off.

US wheat markets are turning up to start… Minnie spring wheat futures up 1 to 4 cents, with the winter wheats up 2 to 4 cents. Winter wheat futures bears maintain the overall chart advantage, but there are strong technical support levels just below current prices. Wheat futures struggle to rally amid reports of ample newly harvested global supply.

While higher this morning, US grain markets maintain a mostly bearish tone from continued favorable US crop weather that is enhancing yield potential. New forecasts for the Corn Belt call for good conditions after a short hot spell this weekend. The prolonged heat pattern once talked about for the US Midwest is diminishing.

In Other News

– Trade deal not imminent… Prime Minister Mark Carney has lowered expectations about reaching a trade agreement with the US in the next 10 days. After meeting with provincial leaders this week, Carney said Canada will not accept a bad deal…and the federal government is pursuing an agreement that will be in the best interest of Canadians.

Carney added that the talks have been difficult because the Trump administration keeps changing its goals. Carney’s government is making a push to get a deal by Aug 1…the date on which US President Donald Trump has threatened to levy tariffs of 35% on some Canadian goods that aren’t covered under the existing North American free trade pact.

– Mixed Manitoba crop conditions… Manitoba saw scattered rainfall in the past week ended Tuesday. While some areas in the Southwest and Northwest received helpful rainfall, much of the province remains dry, particularly in the East, Interlake, and parts of the Central and Northwest regions. Based on 30-year climate norms, most of the East, Northwest, and Interlake regions have accumulated less than 50% of normal precipitation since May 1. Much of the Central and Southwest regions also fall below 70% of average seasonal moisture.

Corn across the province ranges from the V8 to tasseling stage, while the earliest spring wheat is now in grain fill. Barley and oats are progressing from head emergence to grain fill, Spring wheat quality varies regionally, with approximately 61% rated as good.

Canola development varies widely due to an extended seeding window. Early seeded fields are fully podded, while later fields are still at early bolting. Flax is in late flowering, with early seeded fields forming bolls. Sunflowers are progressing from R1 to R3. Field peas are flowering, and soybeans range from V5 to R3, depending on seeding date.

In the Southwest region, cooler temperatures and weekend rain helped crop filling and pasture conditions, though overall precipitation remains below average. In the Northwest, a break in extreme heat helped crops, though some hail hit the Swan Valley area, and drought stress persists on lighter soils.

Although most cereal crops look healthy in the Central Region, the report said crops are expected to yield poorly and is likely to mature prematurely in those areas where rainfall has been insufficient during the growing season. Canola in these areas is turning bluish, indicating moisture stress.

The Eastern Region recorded minimal rain, with producers hoping for at least another 25 mm to support crop maturity. Additional rain was noted in some locations on July 21.

In the Interlake, very dry conditions dominate. Most of the region saw under 5 mm of rain last week, with crops showing clear signs of drought stress. Grain filling remains at risk, and shorter crop heights reflect the impact of limited moisture.

– Northern North Dakota wheat yields to fall from last year… Yields for US spring wheat crops in northern North Dakota are likely to fall from last year’s record per-acre output but remain above the five-year average, the US Wheat Quality Council said on an annual tour on Wednesday. Beneficial rains across much of the biggest spring wheat producing state in the US this summer are supporting yields, although drought in the far northern and far western areas of the state damaged potential output, along with excessive precipitation and crop-flattening winds in other spots, crop scouts said on Day two of the group’s annual three-day crop tour.

The average hard red spring wheat yield in northwest and north-central North Dakota was estimated at 47.1 bu/acre based on samples gathered from 139 fields on Wednesday, down from 53.7 bpa in the same area last year, but above the tour’s five-year average for this part of the state of 42.5 bpa. Strong yields are needed to offset a drop in US planted acreage to the lowest since 1970, as many growers have been shifting more of their land to other crops like corn and soybeans.

Tour scouts will assess crops in the northeastern part of the state on Thursday before releasing a final yield estimate this afternoon.

– US ethanol production recedes as stocks rise… US ethanol production declined slightly last week despite an improvement in estimated operating margin for the average plant. The US Energy Information Administration says production averaged 1.078 million barrels per day, down 9,000 on the week and 17,000 on the year. US ethanol stocks hit a more than two month high at 24.444 million barrels, rising 809,000 from the previous week and 721,000 from a year ago.

The US Renewable Fuels Association says net inputs of ethanol purchased by refiners and blenders and the volume of gasoline supplied to the market were both above the week before, but below the preceding year.

– Chinese buyers ink second bulk soymeal deal with Argentina… A Chinese buyer has signed a deal this week to import 30,000 tonnes of Argentine soymeal. This marks the second such deal since Beijing approved Argentine soymeal imports in 2019, following the initial purchase by Chinese buyers in June. “It is attractive to import soymeal from Argentina,” said one Singapore-based trader. Argentine soymeal is currently priced lower than domestically produced soymeal from local crushers. The interest reflects the efforts by China’s feed industry to diversify supply sources and reduce the risk of disruptions amid the ongoing Sino-US trade tensions.

The deal comes as China faces a soymeal supply glut due to an influx of South American soybeans, with crushers urging buyers to speed up pickups to clear space. Despite the current oversupply in the meal market, some buyers are still concerned about potential supply tightness down the line, driven by ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-China trade negotiations.

– Australia relaxes curbs on US beef… Australia will ease restrictions on beef imports from the United States, the country’s agriculture ministry said, potentially smoothing trade talks with US President Donald Trump, who had attacked its rules. Still, the decision, which US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins called a win for Trump, is unlikely to significantly boost US shipments because beef prices are much lower in Australia.

Canberra has restricted US beef imports since 2003 due to concerns about bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), or mad cow disease. Meat from animals born, raised and slaughtered in the US has been allowed into Australia since 2019. But few suppliers were able to prove their animals had been only in the US, because cattle frequently moved between the US, Canada and Mexico without being adequately tracked.

The US has been improving its ability to monitor animals’ movements to limit the spread of avian influenza and the New World screwworm. Recognizing those improvements, Australia will now also accept beef sourced from cattle born in Canada or Mexico and legally imported and slaughtered in the US, the agriculture ministry said.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 507.85 points higher on Wednesday to settle at 45,010.29, while the S&P 500 Index gained 49.29 points to 6,358.91. Early Thursday, September Dow Jones futures are down 274 points.

Global stock markets are mixed this morning in North America and Europe. Wall Street is mixed…Dow weaker, but S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are slightly higher and extending gains over trade deals and corporate earnings that have shored up investor confidence. TSX futures are edging lower after Canada’s main stock market closed at a fresh record high yesterday, helped by gains for energy and financial shares.

Two European diplomats said on Wednesday that the EU and the US are moving toward a trade deal that could include a 15% US baseline tariff on EU goods and possible exemptions, potentially paving the way for another major trade agreement following the Japan deal.

The September US Dollar Index is up 0.207 at 97.15. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 73.57 US cents.

Sept crude oil futures are up $0.78 at $66.03/barrel. Oil prices climbed, buoyed by optimism over US trade negotiations that would ease pressure on the global economy and a sharper-than-expected decline in US crude inventories.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading mostly 3 cents/bu higher this morning. Bean futures failed to hold onto midday gains on Wednesday, as futures were pressured lower into the close…down 2 to 4 cents. Soymeal futures are up $1/ton this morning. Soyoil is up a modest 16 to 20 points after posting 29 to 51 point gains yesterday and now retesting contract highs.

The USDA this morning reported US soybean export sales of 160,900 tonnes for the week ended July 17…falling with the 100,000 and 350,000 tonnes of trade expectations for old crop. Sales for new crop were recorded at 238,800 tonnes, which were at the bottom of trade ideas (250,000 to 500,000 tonnes).

Rain is expected to continue across much of the US Corn Belt in the next week, with lighter totals seen in the southern US Plains. Encouragement that some measure of trade deals are getting established between the US and other countries has not been enough to overcome Corn Belt weather forecasts that support higher soy yield prospects.

Soyoil continues to draw support from strong US biofuel demand expectations.

Chicago corn futures are mostly up 2 cents this morning. The corn market failed to generate much bullish enthusiasm following the US-Japan trade announcement this week, as futures remain in a net downtrend.

Forecasts for crop-friendly rain in US grain belts and plentiful supply continues to weigh on prices and prompted some traders to reassess their forecast models. The trade has dialed in a big crop, even if there are months to go until harvest.

Several traders say they are paying attention to US corn farmers reporting pollination problems in their fields and variability in this year’s crop. But it remains uncertain how widespread such production issues might actually be.

EIA data showed an average total of 1.078 million barrels per day of US ethanol production in the week ending on July 18. That was a decline of 9,000 bpd from the week prior. Stocks were up 809,000 barrels to 24.444 million on the week.

The USDA this morning reported US corn export sales of 643,100 tonnes for the week ended July 17…comfortably within the range of trade expectations (100,000 and 800,000 tonnes) for old crop. Sales for new crop were recorded at 733,900 tonnes, which were closer to the top of trade ideas (400,000 to 800,000 tonnes).

US wheat markets are trading slightly higher this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are up 1 to 4 cents (Dec contract leading), while HRW is 3 to 4 cents higher and SRW wheat is 1 to almost 3 cents higher. The wheat market fell back lower on Wednesday, with all three US exchanges fading back…spring wheat finishing down 2 to 4 cents.

Minnie spring wheat futures are up a modest 0.75 of a cent this morning at $5.89/bu, suffering a notable sell-off since the start of the month to now languish at its contract low territory posted in May.

Typical northern hemisphere winter wheat harvest pressure continues to weigh on markets, with ample near-term global wheat supplies is keeping rallies capped. But contract lows just below current price levels are providing support when tested.

US spring wheat crop condition ratings are decent with improved rains of late, but Western Canada has been too dry for the best yield potential…though still on pace to be an average crop.

Day 2 of the US spring wheat tour estimated the north-central and northwest area of North Dakota at 47.1 bu/acre, which is below the 53.7 bpa average for the same region last year, but above the 5-year average of 42.5 bpa.

The USDA this morning reported US wheat export sales of 712,200 tonnes for the week ended July 17…beating the range of trade expectations (250,000 to 500,000 tonnes).

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures ended with gains on Wednesday, following other vegetable oils higher. Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed, and Malaysian palm oil all finished higher yesterday, helping to lift canola. Reports attributed some of the strength in the soyoil market to this week’s announcement of a US-Japan trade deal, which contains lower-than-expected tariffs and a commitment from Japan to buy US products.

Crude oil was stronger on the day as well, while the Canadian dollar was little changed.

November and January each gained $8.10 to close at $698.10, and $708.30/tonne, respectively.

For today… canola futures were trading up slightly through the overnight session, but are now down $2/tonne higher this morning and pressing overnight session lows. Losses are being limited from modest gains posted in the CBOT soy complex. But EU rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil markets are steady to slightly weaker…though palm has been on a bullish streak higher this month, supported by strong soyoil prices.

Benchmark Nov canola futures are down $2.50 at $695.60/tonne…wrestling with overhead resistance of its converging 20- and 50-day moving averages at $699/t and psychological resistance at $700. But with US soyoil trending up again and now testing contract highs, an upside breakout there would certainly be friendly to canola. That said, CBOT soybeans have not exhibited any sustained bullish price tones yet.

The Prairie canola crop has seen scattered showers this past week, mainly on the region’s southern half, but the trade is still trying to discern production and yield potential of this year’s crop. But with current demand potential, both old- and new-crop ending stocks projections remain fairly tight…supportive to the market amid strong vegoil demand.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/