AM Market Report – July 10, 2025 | The Western Producer

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are seeing slightly higher trade this morning…up a modest $1/tonne…but seems so far just a “pause” in the rather sharp setback since the market peaked on June 20. Chicago soybeans are down another 1 to 4 cents/bu this morning, while the soy products (oil/meal) are trying to stabilize. Bean futures are lower for a fourth consecutive session after gapping lower on Monday amid uncertainty over US trade prospects.

Chicago corn futures are trading down another 1 to 2 cents this morning…flirting again with fresh contract lows amid favorable US crop conditions. Losses are being limited by short-covering and bargain buying.

The next 15 days will likely be the most critical period of development for the US corn crop, with near-normal temperatures expected in most areas of the Midwest. Favorable US crop weather continues to hang over grain futures, fuelling expectations for sizable corn and soybean harvests this autumn.

US wheat markets are posting modest corrective gains this morning…up mostly 4 to 8 cents.

Grain traders remain worried that Trump’s dumb trade war with the world may hurt demand for US crops and exacerbate a glut in supply.

The USDA is slated to update monthly estimates for global grain supplies and demand on Friday.

In Other News

– Heavy rain for parts of Manitoba; Others still too dry… Parts of Manitoba received heavy rainfall this past week, but a continued lack of moisture in other areas is increasing crop stress, according to the latest weekly provincial crop report. The most notable rain fell across the southern portions of the Central Region, but amounts varied considerably. While most fields in this region appear healthy, signs of stress are beginning to emerge, the report said.

Meanwhile, the Interlake Region saw only trace amounts or no rainfall this past week. Here too, fields are beginning to show signs of stress and need rain very soon to “achieve near normal yield potential,” the report said.

Significant portions of the Eastern, Northwest and Interlake regions have received below 50% of normal rainfall between May 1 and July 6, while most of the Central and Southwest regions have accumulated less than 70% of the 30-year average of precipitation. Only a few locations have accumulated more than 80% of the 30-year average since May 1.

Spring wheat quality in the province is mostly rated as good, with 10% of the crop being reported as fair.

Late seeded canola ranges from the 4-leaf stage to rosette. The earliest seeded canola is in full flower. Flax is up to 15 cm tall and starting to bud, with the earliest seeded fields beginning to flower. Field peas have started flowering in most areas. The most advanced fields are in the R2 to R3 stage, with some beginning to pod. Early seeded soybeans are in the R1 to R2 stage, with later seeded soybeans ranging from V3 to V5.

– Saskatchewan allows diversion of low-yield crops to livestock feed… The Saskatchewan Crop Insurance Corporation has put the double low yield appraisal process in place to allow some crops to be turned into feed. The federal and provincial agriculture ministers said the decision was made to help support producers facing dry conditions. Federal agriculture minister Heath MacDonald said he had spoken with farmers and ranchers in the province who are worried about the situation. “Changing the yield threshold will give them some breathing room, so they can make the best decisions for their operations,” he said.

Saskatchewan agriculture minister Daryl Harrison said governments had to quickly adapt to support producers’ management decisions. “In 2021 and 2023, this same initiative was successfully implemented, resulting in over half a million acres of additional low yield crop redirected to feed,” he said. “Once again, livestock producers are encouraged to work directly with neighbouring crop producers to access additional feed.”

The program allows crops to be grazed, baled or silaged. Yields that fall below an established threshold level are reduced to zero for claim purposes. SCIC is doubling the threshold values, which allows customers to salvage eligible crops for feed without impacting their future individual coverage. All acres must be diverted for livestock feed and not left to harvest. Producers who want to participate should contact their local insurance office.

– USDA’s July crop reports coming Friday… USDA will issue its first US all-wheat crop production estimate in Friday’s Crop Production Report. In the monthly supply/demand report, US old crop balance sheets will reflect June 1 stocks, which were final 2024-25 ending stocks for US wheat, along with any changes to usage forecasts. The new crop balance sheets will feature USDA’s June US acreage estimates, along with adjustments to projected 2025-26 use. The following pre-report estimates are from Reuters…

Expectations for US ending stocks

Corn: 1.353 billion bu for 2024-25 (1.365 billion bu in June); 1.720 billion bu for 2025-26 (1.750 billion bu in June)

Soybeans: 358 million bu for 2024-25 (350 million bu in June); 302 million bu for 2025-26 (295 million bu in June)

Wheat: 851 million bu for 2024-25 (set by June 1 stocks); 895 million bu for 2025-26 (898 million bu in June)

Expectations for US wheat production

All wheat: 1.951 billion bu (1.921 billion bu in June)
All winter wheat: 1.358 billion bu (1.382 billion bu in June)
HRW: 773 million bu (782 million bu in June)
SRW: 341 million bu (345 million bu in June)
White winter: 249 million bu (254 million bu in June)
Other spring: 475 million bu (first survey-based estimate)
Durum: 79 million bu (first survey-based estimate)

– Russian wheat hopes boosted… Two of Russia’s top wheat-growing regions are having very different years as Rostov endures a second year of drought, while good weather in Stavropol promises record output. That should keep supply from the world’s largest exporter steady and could see Stavropol dethrone Rostov as its biggest wheat-growing region.

In Rostov, where the harvesting campaign will start this month, Governor Yuri Slyusar has warned that this year’s crop could fall by 20% from last year’s 10.1 MMT to its lowest level since 2015. He has declared a state of agricultural emergency in 10 districts, a move that facilitates state aid payments to farmers. Although frosts this spring were milder, drought is now seen as the main risk.

In contrast, analysts expect a bumper crop in Stavropol, south of Rostov, where the weather has been much better with 30% more rain so far this year. That is underpinning hopes for government forecasts that see Russia’s grain harvest this year at 135 MMT, up 4% from 2024. The total Russian wheat harvest is seen at 90 MMT tons this year.

– Another US push for mandatory Country of Origin Labeling… The head of R-CALF USA says the organization wants to see the US Congress take up mandatory Country of Origin Labeling. Bill Bullard says the best opportunity to do that is in the upcoming farm bill discussions. “It’s called the American Beef Labeling Act,” he says. “And we want to include that in the farm bill.” The bipartisan bill is co-sponsored by US Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and US Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ).

M-COOL would require all beef sold in US grocery stores to be labeled with its country of origin. Voluntary guidelines are currently in place, but R-CALF USA says it is ineffective.

Congress repealed Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling for beef and pork in 2015, following a series of market discrimination rulings initiated by Canada from the World Trade Organization.

– Trump announces 50% tariffs on goods from Brazil… US President Donald Trump singled out Brazil for import taxes of 50% on Wednesday for its treatment of its former president, Jair Bolsonaro, showing that personal grudges rather than simple economics are a driving force in the US leader’s use of tariffs. Trump avoided his standard form letter with Brazil, specifically tying his tariffs to the trial of Bolsonaro, who is charged with trying to overturn his 2022 election loss. Trump has described Bolsonaro as a friend and hosted the former Brazilian president at his Mar-a-Lago resort when both were in power in 2020.

“This Trial should not be taking place,” Mr. Trump wrote in the letter posted on Truth Social. “It is a Witch Hunt that should end IMMEDIATELY!” There is a sense of kinship as Trump was indicted in 2023 for his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 US presidential election.

The US president addressed his tariff letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who bested Mr. Bolsonaro in 2022. Lula responded in a forceful statement that said Trump’s tariffs would trigger the country’s economic reciprocity law, which allows trade, investment and intellectual property agreements to be suspended against countries that harm Brazil’s competitiveness. “Brazil is a sovereign country with independent institutions that will not accept being taken for granted by anyone,” he said.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 217.54 points on Wednesday to settle at 44,458.30, while the S&P 500 Index gained 37.74 points to 6,263.26. Early Thursday, September Dow Jones futures are down 56 points.

Global stock markets are spinning their collective wheels this morning, trading narrowly mixed as investors keep a cautious eye on US President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff follies. Trump has announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports. He said the levies would come into effect on Aug. 1. He also threatened a purely politics-driven punitive 50% tariff on Brazil’s exports to the US on Wednesday and issued tariff notices to seven minor trading partners.

Wall Street futures are mixed to lower this morning after major US markets closed higher yesterday with US Federal Reserve meeting minutes fueling hopes that inflation pressures from Trump’s tariffs would not derail US interest rate cuts this year.

Canada’s TSX stock index futures are in positive territory after inching closer to Friday’s record high yesterday.

The market reaction to Trump’s tariff developments this week was less severe than in April, and Jeff Ng, SMBC’s head of Asia macroeconomic strategy, said investors had grown somewhat “numb” to the ever-changing situation. “They know that there is still room for negotiation. A lot of these announcements, they start off with eye-catching numbers, but they are not totally final, and they are still subject to changes. Even if they are implemented, they could also be reversed in the coming few months to year,” he said. It’s all Trump’s TACO trade strategy…Trump Always Chickens Out.

The September US Dollar Index is up 0.096 at 97.295. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 73.00 US cents.

August crude oil futures are down $1.50 at US $66.88/barrel. Oil prices are down as investors weighed the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs on global economic growth. Trump’s history of backpedaling on tariffs (TACO) has caused the market to become less reactive, said Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx Capital Group. “People are largely in wait and see mode, given the erratic nature of policy making and the flexibility the administration is showing around tariffs,” he said.

Meanwhile, global output increases from oil producer group OPEC+ are not leading to higher inventories, showing that markets are thirsty for more oil, ministers and executives from OPEC nations and bosses of Western oil majors said on Wednesday. OPEC+, which pumps about half of the world’s oil, has been curtailing production for several years to support the market. But it has reversed course this year to regain market share.

OPEC+, comprising the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, began to unwind cuts of 2.17 million barrels per day in April with a production boost of 138,000 bpd. Hikes of 411,000 bpd followed each month in May, June and July. On Saturday, the group approved a 548,000-bpd jump for August and will likely approve a large hike for September when it meets again in August, sources told Reuters.

“You can see that even with the increases for several months we haven’t seen a major buildup in inventories, which means the market needed those barrels,” United Arab Emirates’ Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei told reporters. Mazrouei was speaking on the sidelines of a biennial OPEC seminar, which brings together top oil ministers and executives.

In metals news… copper futures are in flux. Investors in metal producers are trying to figure out the implications of a threat by Trump to slap a big 50% US import tax on copper imports. His warning, in an apparently off-the-cuff comment to reporters, sparked chaos in metals markets Tuesday. There was a record spike higher in New York copper futures. Such a levy would impose costs across the US economy because the metal is so widely used.

It seems that Trump is hell bent on increasing inflation in the US. The two largest uses of copper are for house wiring and industrial (think cars and electric motors). These future prices are at the highest levels in history. That would be bad news for the US economy in the coming months.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 1 to 4 cents/bu lower this morning, led by the nearby contracts. Bean futures slipped even further into the Wednesday close, as most contracts were down 10 to 12 cents at the final bell. Soymeal futures are down less than $1/ton this morning…losing about the same amount yesterday into fresh contract lows. Soyoil is up a modest 10 to 17 points this morning, but were down 45 to 82 points yesterday.

US crop weather remains generally favorable…with the central Corn Belt region in line to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain this week, while the western half of the northern US Plains and parts of the eastern Corn Belt seeing totals near an inch.

USDA this morning reported US soybean export sales of 503,000 tonnes for the week ended July 3, within the trade range of expectations between 300,000 to 600,000 tonnes for old crop.

Ahead of the Friday monthly USDA supply/demand report, analysts are expecting to see a small 8 million bu increase in the old crop US soybean stocks to 358 million. As for new crop, traders are looking for a 7 million bu reduction to 2025 US output on the slight drop in acres. But US bean ending stocks for 2025/26 are still estimated at 302 million bu, a 7 million bu increase vs June.

Trade attention also remains warily focused on US-China trade relation developments…which remain hostile.

Chicago corn futures are down 1 to 2 cents this morning and again threatening fresh contract lows. Bulls showed up on Wednesday to defend the $4.00/bu level on September, but fell short by the close. Sept is down 2 cents this morning at $3.97/bu.

Wednesday morning’s weekly EIA report showed an uptick in US ethanol production averaging 9,000 barrels per day higher for the week ending July 4 to 1.085 million barrels per day. Stocks, meanwhile, were down 158,000 barrels to 23.959 million barrels despite a 10,000 bpd drop in exports to 121,000 barrels and 23,000 bpd reduction in refiner inputs to 902,000 bpd.

USDA this morning reported US corn export sales of 1.262 MMT for the week ended July 3, besting the trade range of expectations of between 375,000 and 900,000 tonnes on old crop. Even new crop export sale for this week at 888,600 tonnes beat trade ideas.

CONAB estimates the Brazilian corn crop at 131.97 MMT via their monthly release, up 3.72 MMT from last month on a 3.54 MMT increase to the second crop corn.

Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report, US corn ending stocks for old crop are projected at 1.353 billion bu, a 12 million bu reduction from June if realized. New crop production is expected to be trimmed. That would help to tighten the new crop stock estimate to an average of 1.720 billion bu vs 1.75 billion in June.

US wheat markets are seeing some corrective bounce this morning in defiance of weaker corn and soybeans. Winter wheat futures are mostly 4 to 8 cents higher this morning, while spring wheat is mostly 4 to 5 cents higher. The US wheat complex ended Wednesday on a mixed note, as the hard red contracts were busy posting slight strength…spring wheat up 1 to 2 cents yesterday.

USDA this morning reported US wheat export sales of 567,800 tonnes for the week ended July 3, closer to the top of trade expectations ranging between 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes.

Most analysts see 2025 US winter wheat production falling in Friday’s USDA report, which will likely be partially offset by an increase in old crop stocks, assuming USDA’s estimate from June 30 remains accurate. What is likely keeping short-covering to a minimum ahead of Friday, however, is what is still likely to be a plentiful stocks situation in the US as well as an uncertain world outlook as Russia and the EU are expected to have strong crops…stronger than initially expected for the former.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

After a small rebound on Tuesday, ICE canola futures suffered more sharp declines on Wednesday. Losses in the Chicago soy complex…mainly due to demand concerns amid US President Trump’s expanding trade war and the lack of progress in trade talks with China…helped to send the US soy complex lower, and in turn drag our canola market to sharp losses. Weakness was also seen in European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil. On the other side, crude oil was higher and the Canadian dollar lower.

Some scattered showers are in the forecast for the Prairies over the next week, but no widespread or lasting relief from dryness is expected.

November canola dropped $23.10 yesterday to settle at $681/tonne, and January was down $23.20 at $689.20.

For today… canola futures are trying to work higher this morning after yesterday’s latest plunge lower. We are seeing $2 to $3/tonne gains on the board now. Benchmark Nov canola futures are up $3.10 at $684.10/tonne. But Nov is still down a whopping $50/t since July 2.

This week’s break below its 20- and 50-day moving averages and upward trendline support from the March low is a disturbing technical development…but not entirely surprising given the strong tendency for the canola market to post one of its seasonal highs somewhere in the month of June. Next support level would be the start of June lows around the $670/t area. Spec fund liquidation coming off their record long positioning is likely at work.

Forecasts of cooling conditions for the Prairies in the days ahead, and hopefully a bout or two of precipitation, might alleviate some crop stress during the flowering period. But dry conditions remain a concern, especially in Saskatchewan.

In related markets…CBOT soybeans/meal are slightly weaker this morning, though soyoil is slightly higher. EU rapeseed futures are narrowly mixed, while Malaysian palm oil is slightly weaker.

To access the latest futures prices, visit our Markets Futures Prices page.