GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS
OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE
ICE canola futures are showing some surprising bullish momentum to start this morning, leaping $9 to $13/tonne higher right now. There is a price positive tone across the ag markets generally this morning, but canola is showing bullish leadership off technically oversold conditions. Mar canola is up $12.50 currently at $605.90/tonne after falling $25/t last week (Fri-Fri)…and ended Friday down $71/t since Nov 27.
Chicago soybean futures are trading 3 to 6 cents/bu higher this morning, with the oil and meal products also higher. The soy complex as a whole is seeing some tepid short-covering, but are being constrained by the weakening price trends of the past couple of weeks. Despite the recent increase in China purchases of US beans, anticipated robust South American production continues to weigh on the market.
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AM Market Report – April 16, 2026
GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE ICE canola futures are trending $2 to $4/tonne higher so…
CBOT corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher this morning. The corn market is underpinned by strong demand, but continues to be a rangebound, sideways trending market overall.
US wheat markets are steady to higher…the winter wheats gaining 4 to 6 cents, with spring wheat futures steady to a penny higher. Wheat has a strong demand story, but abundant global supply limits any price gain.
Corn and wheat markets were supported in part by the weekend news of Russia s stepped-up attacks on Ukraine s grain facilities (see item below).
In Other News
– End-of-year interview with Bank of Canada s Tiff Macklem… Ultimately, the Canadian economy made it to the end of 2025 in a better place than many expected. But, the Bank of Canada moved through profound uncertainty. And throughout much of the year, Governor Tiff Macklem and his team were navigating without a trade war map, according to a Globe and Mail report. He told economics reporter Mark Rendell that he learned a good lesson in the early, frenetic days of tariff talk: We can t overreact to the latest piece of news.
In terms of diversifying trade away from the US, things appear to be moving in a positive direction, Macklem said. But the biggest near-term risk is the review of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement. There are also risks tied to the AI boom that has buoyed stock markets and spurred a massive amount of spending on data centres.
– US Ag economist: CUSMA uncertainty could be a negotiating strategy… A US ag economist says he s watching how the Trump administration reviews the Canada-US-Mexico Trade Agreement.
Allen Featherstone with Kansas State University with says the Trump administration has hinted that completely withdrawing from the deal is an option but, I think it s just a negotiating posture. For example, we ve heard a lot of different things about trade agreements with China and other countries.
Recently, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that all options were on the table for renegotiating USMCA which could include separate agreements between the countries.
Featherstone says withdrawing from the agreement could have major implications for US agriculture, but this is a similar strategy used before. The Trump administration, historically, has taken hardline positions up front and then usually end coming to more of a reasonable type of situation and hopefully that will be the same with USMCA.
Featherstone says Mexico and Canada remain two of the most important export markets for the US and maintaining access is critical to the health of the economy.
– Carney supports supply management in trade negotiations with the US...Prime Minister Mark Carney reaffirmed he’ll protect Canada’s supply management system, as the United States signalled it’s ready to fight over this country’s dairy rules at the negotiating table, reports the CBC. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told members of US Congress Wednesday that Washington is not prepared to extend the Canada-US-Mexico agreement (CUSMA) without addressing “specific and structural issues.”
In remarks made public after Greer met with lawmakers behind closed doors, President Donald Trump’s point-person on trade said Americans have concerns about “dairy market access in Canada” and “Canada’s
In response, Carney said supply management is not on the table. “We’ve been clear about our approach to supply management. We continue to stand by that. We will continue to protect supply management,” the prime minister said. It’s a position he’s made clear in the past, including on the election campaign this spring.
Carney was asked a question on supply management in English, and responded in French – a transparent message to Quebec where the system is fiercely protected by the dairy industry. The policy, which dates back to the 1970s, is meant to ensure predictable and stable prices by guaranteeing supply-managed farmers a minimum price for their products.
Greer linked expanded access to the dairy market as a crucial step for CUSMA talks to be successful, arguing that Canada “maintains policies that unfairly restrict market access for US dairy products.”
Canada does allow some US dairy products to trade into Canada tariff-free. The import quotas negotiated under CUSMA during Trump’s first term are designed to give US producers tariff-free access worth roughly 3.5% of Canada’s domestic demand for dairy products.
– EU-Mercosur trade deal stalled… The European Union won t be signing a massive trade deal with a South American trade bloc until at least next month after Italy backed France s call for a delay and as farmer protests in Brussels intensified, news reports said. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told EU leaders at their summit on Thursday that the Mercosur trade won t be signed as scheduled on Saturday and instead would wait until next month, Politico reported, citing EU diplomats.
The report said von der Leyen told the group that Brazil President Luiz In cio Lula da Silva agreed to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni s request to postpone the signature to allow her to reassure the country s farmers that they wouldn t be undercut by cheap poultry and beef.
Protesters lit fires and hurled potatoes at riot police who responded with teargas and water cannons, as tensions boiled over at a farmer demonstration against the EU’s planned trade deal, reported Irish broadcaster RTE. The protests aimed to put pressure on EU leaders as they attended a summit to finalize the deal.
The EU had reached a tentative agreement earlier this week that would put tighter controls on imports of farm products that would result from the agreement, Reuters reported. The pact is the result of over two decades of negotiations and would create the world s largest free trade zone. But it s met objections from farmers.
The deal would allow the EU to export more vehicles, machinery, wines and spirits to South America, while opening Europe to the entry of South American beef, sugar, rice, honey and soybeans, according to AFP. Farmers have protested that the move will open up European markets to a flood of products that will damage their livelihood. French farmers fear a threat to their competitiveness, arguing that South American producers aren t subject to the same environmental and food-security measures as in Europe.
– Lack of South America weather problems keeps grain prices in check… Dr. Michael Cordonnier with Soybean and Corn Advisor says a weather scare in South America could help improve world grain prices, but so far, there aren t any concerns. He says Brazil s soybeans are expected to be record-large, though it s unclear what will happen yet with corn.
A lot of farmers have already said they re going to miss the ideal planting window for the second corn crop, which in central Brazil closes about the third week of February. And my estimate is a good 30% of second corn crop, called the Safrinha, is going to be planted later than desired.
Cordonnier says corn and soybean crops in Argentina are doing better than expected. You know, for the last couple of months, all the meteorologists have said, we have a La Nina kicking in, it s going to be weak and short lived. Usually, a La Nina results in hotter than normal and drier than normal conditions.
But he says it hasn t happened yet and South America is still on pace to raise good corn and soybeans this year.
– CPKC exceeds grain revenue cap; CN below… The Canadian Transportation Agency (CTA) has ruled that Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City once again ended the crop year on opposite sides of their grain revenue limits. In a determination issued Friday, the agency found that CN s grain revenue for the 2024 25 crop year came in below its maximum revenue entitlement, while CPKC exceeded its revenue cap.
According to the CTA, CN earned $1.45 billion from Western grain movement in the 2024-25 crop year, about $5.9 million below its allowable limit. CPKC, meanwhile, recorded grain revenue of $1.06 billion, exceeding its entitlement by roughly $2.6 million. As a result, CPKC has 30 days to repay the excess amount along with a mandatory 5% penalty of $133,012. Under federal regulations, the payment will be directed to the Western Grains Research Foundation, which supports crop research across Western Canada.
During the 2024 25 crop year, railways moved just over 49 MMT of Western grain, a 12.1% increase from the previous year s 43.7 MMT.
– California evaluation backs year-round E15 use... Inside EPA reported that a long-awaited multimedia evaluation conducted by California s regulatory agencies found that the use of 15% ethanol (E15) gasoline in California won t pose significant harms to public health or the environment compared with E10 that is predominantly used now.
The report paves the way for rulemaking that would permanently allow E15 sales, Inside EPA said. Although the California Air Resources Board and other environmental agencies didn t find major health or environmental risks, officials in the report still emphasized the need to monitor for safety, according to Inside EPA.
– Spanish police search lab in ASF outbreak probe… Spanish police searched a laboratory near Barcelona as part of an investigation into the origin of the outbreak of African swine fever in the same area, Reuters reported. The court-ordered move follows concerns that the outbreak detected in wild boars may have stemmed from a laboratory leak, the report said. Genome sequencing showed the strain was similar to that used in research and vaccine development and differed from other cases in Europe. The outbreak has threatened exports from Spain, the EU s largest pork producer.
– Putin does not sound like he s seeking peace with Ukraine… Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday that Moscow s troops were advancing across the battlefield in Ukraine, voicing confidence that the Kremlin s military goals would be achieved nearly four years after he ordered troops into the neighboring country.
Speaking at a highly orchestrated year-end news conference, Putin declared that Russian forces have fully seized strategic initiative and would make more gains by the year s end, reported the Associated Press. Our troops are advancing all across the line of contact, faster in some areas or slower in some others, but the enemy is retreating in all sectors, Putin said at the annual live news conference, which is combined with a nationwide call-in show that offers Russians across the country the opportunity to ask questions of their leader.
However, the Russian leader also said that Moscow is ready for a peaceful settlement that would address the root causes of the conflict, a reference to the Kremlin s tough conditions for a deal. Earlier this week, Putin warned that Moscow would seek to extend its gains in Ukraine if Kyiv and its Western allies reject the Kremlin s demands.
– Russia steps up attacks on Ukraine grain facilities in Black Sea ports…Russia has intensified its attacks at Ukraine s Odesa ports in the Black Sea, including Pivdennyi, the country s largest, reports Bloomberg. A shipping terminal belonging to oilseed firm Allseeds was attacked over the weekend, and the facility was damaged, according to a spokesperson for Vice Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba. The company confirmed that its terminal came under bombardment on Dec. 20 and at least one person was killed. The strike caused extensive damage, including significant fires on site, the destruction of thousands of tonnes of stored sunflower oil, and damage to critical infrastructure, Allseeds said on its website, as reported by Bloomberg.
Russia again delivered a strike at Pivdennyi port overnight, Kuleba said. Thirty containers with flour and vegetable oil caught fire after the attack.
Meanwhile, Russia said a drone attack damaged infrastructure and vessels at the Black Sea port of Taman, which handles products including grains, fertilizers and oil. The assault struck two tankers and two piers at the port s Volna settlement, local authorities said on Telegram. They added that one connecting pipeline at the terminal and two storage tanks were also damaged.
Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of grain and sunflower oil, and the recent pickup in attacks on infrastructure risks slowing the pace of shipments, said Bloomberg.
Outside Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 183.04 points on Friday to settle at 48,134.89, while the S&P 500 rose 59.74 points to 6,834.50. Early Monday, the March Dow Jones Futures are up another 71 points.
Global stock markets are muted after markets rallied Friday on softer-than-expected US inflation data and a boost in tech stocks. Wall Street futures are in positive territory this morning. Canada s TSX stock index futures are also pointed slightly higher as investors assessed retail sales figures for fresh signals on the Canadian economy. Sales fell by 0.2% in October from September on lower activity at food and beverage retailers, Statistics Canada said.
The March US Dollar Index is down 0.237 at 98.015. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.76 US cents.
Feb crude oil futures are up $1.26 at US $57.78/barrel. Oil prices are higher this morning on concerns over disruptions from a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers and second guessing on whether a Russia-Ukraine peace deal can be achieved. But oil prices remain ?down at current levels as the market remains ?awash with oil right now. There s enough oil to mitigate any disruptions.
The US is pursuing a third oil tanker near Venezuela, as US President Trump intensifies an oil blockade on Nicol s Maduro s government. The tanker being pursued is flying under a false flag and under a judicial seizure order, a Panamanian-flagged vessel sanctioned by the US, according to a Bloomberg report. The attempted interdiction follows the US military boarding of the Centuries supertanker early Saturday and the Skipper on Dec. 10. The blockade appears to be putting pressure on Venezuela s oil storage and could lead to a production collapse and widespread civilian unrest in Venezuela.
Meantime, a senior Russian general was killed after a bomb exploded in his car in Moscow, according to investigators who pointed suspicion for the assassination at Ukraine. Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov, who was in charge of the operational training department in the Russian General Staff, died from injuries sustained when the device planted under his car detonated early Monday. A murder investigation was opened, and the involvement of Ukrainian special services is seen as one potential theory being examined. Ukraine hasn t commented.
Grain Markets
Chicago soybean futures are trading 3 to 6 cents/bu to start this morning. Bean futures ended Friday s session with most front month contracts down 2 to 3 cents. Jan beans closed out last week down 27 cents from the previous Friday. The plunge in soybean futures in the past month, with few higher trading sessions, has put contracts into technically oversold territory…and getting some respite this morning. But fundamentally, traders remain unsatisfied with demand for US soybeans, particularly from China.
Soymeal futures are up a modest $1/ton or less this morning after slipping $1/ton on Friday, with Jan meal $4.90 lower last week. Soyoil futures are up 49 to 58 points this morning after ending down 2 to 21 points on Friday, with Jan ban oil losing 217 points wk/wk.
AgRural estimates the Brazilian soybean crop at a record large 180.4 MMT, up 1.9 MMT from their previous estimate. China s soybean imports in November totaled 5.85 MMT from Brazil and 1.78 MMT from Argentina, with the two counties accounting for 93.9% of the total for the month.
Chicago corn futures are pushing up 2 to 3 cents/bu this morning. The corn market posted fractional losses across most contracts to close out Friday s session. Mar corn futures are up 3.5 cents at $4.47/bu, though so far remains rangebound between $4.35 and $4.50.
Traders will see delayed weekly US export sales, export inspection, and ethanol production data throughout Monday’s trade. The data has the potential to build on the strong demand factored into the corn market.
Friday’s US cattle-on-feed report released by USDA showed tight cattle numbers, and the market’s reaction was bullish. The total number of cattle and calves on feed was only 11.7 million, 2% below a year ago. Placements in November were 1.6 million head, 11% lower than a year ago and the lowest in 29 years. Fewer animals to feed lessens US domestic corn demand.
US wheat markets are trading higher this morning…led by 4 to 6 cents/bu gains in the winter wheats, while Minnie spring wheat futures are showing more modest fractional to 1 cent gains. The US wheat complex was mixed on Friday, with spring wheat futures finishing 5 to 6 cents higher, with the Mar contract closing the week up 2.25 cents.
Wheat prices continue to face headwinds fundamentally, with world wheat stocks (outside of China) estimated at an 8-year high. US wheat stocks are pegged at a six-year high.
The trade is monitoring harvest in the Southern Hemisphere and overwintering conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 73.3% of Argentina s wheat crop is harvested, with production seen at a record large 27.1 MMT, up 1.6 million on the week. The European Commission raised its 2025/26 soft wheat production guess for the European Union 200,000 tonnes to 134.4 MMT.
Algeria has issued a tender for 50,000 tonnes durum wheat.
CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET
ICE canola futures posted more losses on Friday, with the benchmark Mar contract losing $25/tonne on the week.
This year s record large Canadian canola crop continues to overhang the market, while demand has been badly dented by Chinese tariffs that have effectively blocked Canadian shipments to that country. According to the Canadian Grain Commission, total year-to-date canola export shipments of 2.4 MMT to all destinations are lagging well behind 4.2 MMT sent out by the same date a year earlier.
Friday losses in the Chicago soy complex also weighed on canola, with Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed also weaker.
March canola fell $6.80 on Friday to settle at $593.40/tonne, and November lost $5.20 to $618.50.
For today… canola futures are rallying a surprisingly strong $9 to $13/tonne to start this morning…and I don t have an immediate explanation other than short-covering in what has been a technically oversold market this month. Mar canola futures are rallying up $12.50 this morning at $605.90/tonne…but that comes after falling $25/t last week (Fri-Fri)…and ended Friday down $71/t since Nov 27.
Energy, and commodity markets generally this morning are getting a bullish shot in the arm from a series of weekend developments. An escalation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine attacking their respective port facilities suggests a greater chance of the war continuing rather than abating. And there s talk of increased sanctions against Russia coming from many sides. Added to the geopolitical anxiety, the US seizing another Venezuelan oil tanker over the weekend supports the notion that there is more of a likelihood of an escalation ahead there than anything.
Perhaps canola traders are also taking as a sign of hope a year-end CBC interview with Prime Minister Mark Carney that aired over the weekend. In it he stressed the need to expand Canadian export partners given the US threats over upcoming CUSMA negotiations. He stressed that mending relations with China and India need to be at the top of the list. That has likely inspired hope that our tariff war with China may be resolved sooner rather than later. But that s still a grasping at straws expectation given the ugliness of the overall canola chart trend.
Still…with US soy complex, Malaysian palm oil and EU rapeseed markets higher this morning…helps support our canola futures…though our market is somewhat suspiciously higher than all of them. But that said…canola was the biggest loser of the oilseed world last week, so it deserves a break.
Headwinds still ahead for the canola market…the global oilseed sector in general suffers through weak exports, a collapsing vegoil market and US biofuel uncertainty.
On the feed grains… Prairie feed prices for barley and wheat have pulled back a little following an upward swing that started in November and ended in early December. There s been some demand come forward into the market, but that seems to have slowed going into the start of the holiday season as supply needs are being filled.
Cash feed barley bids reside in the $265 to $270/tonne range delivered Lethbridge, down from the $275 level seen not long ago. There continues to be some limited quantities of US corn being imported into Western Canada price at Cdn $285 to $290/tonne delivered into southern Alberta.
There have been two major factors in bringing down feed grain prices…one is the recent Statistics Canada report that showed large Canadian barley/wheat harvests this year. Canadian barley production reached 9.7 MMT in 2025, up from 8.1 MMT last year. The other issue is the low number of cattle available at the auctions.
Canadian crop year-to-date barley export shipments to Dec 14 (Week 19) have totaled 1.259 MMT, up from 922,000 tonnes to the same week last year. But the export pace is slowing now after a fast start because Australian barley is at a price discount to Canadian barley landed in China.
Domestic feed demand makes seasonal highs in December and January because this is when cattle on feed inventories are at the peak. Feedlot inventories start to decline in February. Usually…farmer selling of feed grains tends to pick up after the New Year, so perhaps an incremental feed sale should be made ahead of the holidays.
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