GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS
OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE
On Friday, ICE canola, along with US corn, soybean and wheat markets experienced a broad-based sell-off…all finishing at technically bearish weekly low closes. That suggests speculative, chart-based bears have a head of steam to start the new week and are poised to more aggressively play the short side of the grain markets.
ICE canola futures were little changed coming into this morning…but are now trading around $2 to $3/tonne lower…coming after selling off $13 to $16/tonne on Friday.
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AM Market Report – April 15, 2026
GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Ice canola futures are posting $3/tonne gains to start so…
Chicago soybean futures are little changed this morning following a Friday sell-off. Bean futures are trading steady to less than a penny higher right now after hitting a six-week low overnight as worries about slowing export demand for US supplies and the looming harvest of a large Brazilian crop spurred a round of long liquidation last week.
CBOT corn futures are fractionally to a penny weaker this morning after hitting a two-week low Friday. Corn continues to trade largely sideways, which could continue over the next couple weeks as volume begins to dry up during the Xmas holiday season.
US wheat markets are lower this morning…spring wheat futures are edging fractionally to 2 cents weaker while the winter wheats are losing 3 to 5 cents. Wheat traders are searching for bullish news, but haven’t found it to counter the bears.
With Christmas nearing, grain traders generally may start looking for reasons to spark a ‘Santa Claus’ rally…hopefully.
In Other News
– USDA raises world rapeseed production to new high… Thanks mainly to a record large Canadian crop, 2025-26 global rapeseed output is estimated by the USDA at a new peak. The USDA pegged world rapeseed production for the current marketing year at 95.27 MMT. That s up 3 MMT or 3.25% from last month s projection and now sits almost 9.3 MMT or 10.8% above the 2024-25 global crop of 86 MMT.
USDA raised its 2025-26 Canadian canola production estimate to 22 MMT, up 2 MMT from its November forecast, following updated Statistics Canada data. The survey-based StatCan report pegged national canola output at 21.803 MMT, up about 1.7 MMT above the federal agency s model-based September projection and now 13.3% above the 2024 crop of 19.239 MMT. If accurate, it would be the largest crop on record, surpassing the 2017 crop of 21.458 MMT.
Additionally, the USDA raised its 2025-26 Australia rapeseed production estimate by 500,000 tonnes from November to 7.2 MMT, up from 6.4 million in 2024-25. Russia s rapeseed crop was revised higher as well, up to 6 MMT from 5.5 MMT in November and 6.4 MMT the previous year.
With supplies expanding, global rapeseed trade and crush are also forecast higher. World trade is projected 900,000 tonnes higher this month, while global crush is increased by 1.6 MMT, supported by rising demand for vegetable oils and protein meals. Higher imports are expected from the European Union, Japan, Mexico, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates, the USDA said.
Global rapeseed ending stocks for 2025-26 are forecast at 12.5 MMT, with Canada accounting for roughly 30% of the total.
– Farmers not seeking ad hoc payments… There has been no chorus of Canadian farm leaders calling on Ottawa to response in kind to US President Donald Trump s US $12 billion Christmas present to American growers last week. The Trump administration s latest cash handout is a one-time bridge payment in response to market disruptions and record high input costs, two issues that are also affecting Canadian growers.
Grain Growers of Canada declined to comment on whether it is pushing the Canadian government for a similar ad hoc payment as of mid-December. The Saskatchewan Canola Development Commission says board members have pressed pause on the issue for the time being…awaiting Canadian government action in negotiating canola tariff relief with China. And the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan says their farmer members are not seeking an aid package…instead are asking for resolution to tariff issues that have derailed trade to some of Canada s top ag customers.
– Trump administration unlikely to finalize 2026 US biofuel quotas this year… The Trump administration is not expected to finalize 2026 US biofuel-blending quotas before the end of this year, according to sources, extending uncertainty over a US policy closely watched by the rival oil and agricultural sectors. The slowdown would throw one of the administration’s most consequential energy policy choices into next year and folds the highly anticipated quotas into a growing cluster of interlocking decisions the White House is weighing on biofuels policy.
Together, the moves have raised expectations the administration may look to strike a broader…albeit elusive…agreement between rival oil and agricultural interests.
The US Environmental Protection Agency, which administers biofuels policy, has scheduled meetings with stakeholders on the quota rule early next week, a sign that the issue will be pushed into next year. as such, the EPA’s decision was unlikely by the end of this year. The EPA told Reuters it was still reviewing public comments on the volume requirements and declined to offer any guidance on timing. The volume mandates are administered under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), the US federal program that mandates the blending of biofuels such as ethanol and bio/renewable diesel into the US fuel supply.
A delay in finalizing the mandates is important because fuel makers, farmers and commodity traders use them to lock in supply contracts, hedge volatile crop and energy markets, and justify investments in new production capacity. Without clarity on next year’s quotas, companies say they are forced to hold back on deals and delay spending decisions that shape US biofuel output and margins.
Uncertainty over US biofuel demand has been seen as a headwind for US corn and soy complex markets.
– 45Z tax credits set to bring windfall to US ethanol plants... Major changes to the United States 45Z tax credit are set to go into effect at the end of the month. Scott Irwin, ag economist at the University of Illinois, says the passage of the July US government reconciliation package is bringing a windfall to American ethanol producers. A typical ethanol plant here in the US Midwest, without having any investments for carbon sequestration, is still going to get 11 cents a gallon starting January 1st on this tax credit, he says…adding that this should equate to an additional 32 cents/bu on corn bids.
If I m a Corn Belt farmer, close enough that I would normally consider an ethanol plant, I would definitely be asking, What s your policy? You re getting this money. How are we going to share? he says.
Irwin estimates the policy could pour up to $2 billion a year into the US ethanol industry through the 45z credits.
– German cabinet approves draft biofuels law… Germany s cabinet approved a draft biofuels law last week, which will allow continued use of food and animal feed as biofuel ingredients, the environment ministry said. Reuters reported, Germany s program to cut greenhouse gases includes blending biofuels, such as biodiesel and bioethanol, with fossil fuels to reduce emissions from road vehicles.
Germany s previous coalition government, which included the Greens Party, which lost power after the general election in February, had planned to phase out the use of food and animal feed ingredients. The Dec. 10 statement from the environment ministry, however, said the use of food and feed ingredients will continue at current permitted levels.
The use of palm oil, though, will not be permitted to count towards emissions reduction from 2027 because of fears about environmental damage in some world regions from its production, the ministry said.
German traders said the new draft law was expected to support rapeseed/canola prices.
– US, Ukraine, EU officials holding more peace talks in Berlin… Ukraine, the US and European Union representatives are due to hold a second day of talks in Berlin on a plan aimed at ending Russia s war, with allied security guarantees for Kyiv a central focus of the negotiations, reports Bloomberg. About 10 European leaders are expected to attend a summit today, together with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his team held more than five hours of talks at Germany s Federal Chancellery on Sunday with US officials. The sides discussed Ukraine s territory as the US is backing a Russian demand for Kyiv to withdraw from areas of its eastern Donetsk region that Moscow s forces have failed to seize since 2014, a person familiar with the matter said. Zelenskiy repeatedly rejected the demand, and together with European allies is insisting on a ceasefire along the current line of contact, the person said, asking not to be identified discussing sensitive issues and as reported by Bloomberg.
The Ukrainian president signaled that Kyiv could step back from its long-term goal of joining NATO if it reached bilateral security agreements with the US, European and other states, potentially including Canada and Japan. Those agreements would function similarly to NATO s Article 5 mutual-defense commitment to prevent another coming of Russian aggression, Zelenskiy told reporters on Sunday.
– Russia attacks two Ukrainian ports, damaging three Turkish-owned vessels… Russia attacked two Ukrainian ports on Friday, damaging three Turkish-owned vessels including a ship carrying food supplies, Ukrainian officials and one ship owner said, days after Moscow threatened to cut “Ukraine off from the sea”. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed retaliation against Kyiv’s maritime drone attacks on Moscow’s “shadow fleet” tankers thought to be used to export oil, which Kyiv says is Russia’s main source of funding for its almost four-year-old war.
– Russia’s seaborne grain exports jump 26.6% in November… Russia’s seaborne grain exports in November rose for the first time this season to 6.0 MMT, up 26.6% compared to the same month in 2024, shipping data from industry sources showed. The last time monthly Russian grain export volumes increased year-on-year was in December 2024, when they rose by 6%. Total seaborne exports total 25.3 MMT so far this marketing season, down 8.3% year-on-year, according to the data. Exports via Black Sea terminals, which normally account for around 90% of all Russian seaborne grain shipments, increased by 24.3% to 5.3 MMT in November 2025.
– Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest at 55.5 MMT so far… Ukrainian farmers had threshed about 55.5 MMT of grain from 92.4% of the sown area as of December 11, the economy ministry said on Friday. Ukraine plans to harvest about 60 MMT of grain in 2025, officials have said, against 56 MMT in 2024.
Ukraine 2025 grain harvest progress (MMT)
Wheat, 22.96
Barley, 5.42
Peas, 0.673
Corn, 25.37
Rapeseed, 3.32
Sunflower, 9.06
Soybeans, 4.78
Sugar beet, 10.73
TOTAL GRAIN, 55.470
– La Nina to fade early next year, neutral Pacific conditions likely… La Nina is expected to linger for another month or two before likely giving way to neutral Pacific conditions between January and March 2026, carrying a 68% probability, the US Climate Prediction Center said. “Even after equatorial Pacific SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) transition to ENSO-neutral, La Nina may still have some lingering influence through the early Northern Hemisphere spring 2026,” the CPC added in its monthly update.
La Ni a is part of the El Ni o-Southern Oscillation climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean along the South American coast. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.
“Sea-surface temperatures can return to a neutral ENSO in January or early February, but the lag with the atmosphere can result in weak La Ni a atmospheric conditions carrying into March,” said Jason Nicholls, lead forecaster at AccuWeather.
Nicholls highlighted excessive rainfall in southern Brazil as a concern but said: “I do not really foresee widespread significant drought problems across much of the global croplands in the coming months.”
– EU vote on Mercosur trade deal set for this week… European Union countries are set to vote this week to determine whether the bloc should sign a contentious trade agreement with South American bloc Mercosur by the end of the year. The EU and the bloc of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay reached agreement last December to create the EU’s largest ever trade accord, some 25 years after negotiations were launched. However, France and other EU countries have expressed reservations, fearing increased imports would hurt their farmers.
The European Commission, which negotiated the agreement, is seeking approval from EU members so that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen can travel to Brazil to sign it.
The EC vote outcome is uncertain. Approval requires a qualified majority of 15 EU members representing 65% of the EU population. Germany, Spain and the Nordic countries are clear supporters. However, Poland has said it will oppose the agreement, while the French and Italian positions are unclear. If those three, plus one more country, vote against or abstain, the deal would be rejected.
– Argentina s green pea production reaches new heights… Argentina is poised to deliver its largest green pea crop on record this December, with production estimated at 264,000 tonnes, according to market-based assessments shared by Adrian Poletti, Executive Director at Adrian Poletti & Asociados and a leading analyst of Argentina s pulse sector. While official figures are yet to be released, the estimates point to a 48% increase compared to last year and a staggering 108% rise above the five-year average (2020 2024).
This dramatic jump marks the most significant green pea harvest since 2017. But the story behind this expansion is a mix of agronomic challenges, commercial advantages, and shifting global trade dynamics…particularly the ongoing disruption caused by China s 100% tariff on Canadian peas.
Argy farmers are able to double crop peas/corn or peas/soybeans in the same field during the production year. This makes peas a complementary, non-competing crop…with acres increasing.
But export opportunity for Argentine peas is contingent of the state of Canada-China trade relations.
– European bird flu spike due to record wild bird cases… An unprecedented number of bird flu outbreaks among wild birds and their wide geographic spread are driving an early and strong wave of the disease in Europe this year, the European Food Safety Authority said. Highly pathogenic avian influenza has led to the culling of hundreds of millions of farmed birds in recent years, disrupting food supplies and increasing prices. Human cases remain rare.
Outbreaks typically peak in autumn as migratory birds head south, but this season saw earlier cases, killing many wild birds, mainly common cranes along the German, French, and Spanish routes as well as a large number of waterfowl. Between September 6 and November 28, 2,896 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 virus detections were reported in domestic birds in 29 countries in Europe. “We are currently seeing an unprecedented sharp increase in the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus detections, mostly in wild birds,” Lisa Kohnle, scientific officer at EFSA, told Reuters. Poultry outbreak numbers were similar to previous years but five times higher than in 2023, and almost double those of 2021. Turkeys were the most affected.
Outside Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 245.96 points lower on Friday to settle at 48,458.05, while the S&P 500 was down 73.59 points at 6,827.41. Early Monday, the December Dow Jones Futures are up 184 points.
Global stock markets steadied with European shares moving higher overnight, but investor caution capped gains at the start of a week loaded with big central bank decisions and economic data. Wall Street futures are pointed to a recovery this morning from last week s sell down. Canada s TSX stock index futures followed sentiment higher. But Asian stock markets were lower overnight.
The December US Dollar Index is down 0.074 at 98.320. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at.
Jan crude oil futures are down $0.37 at US $57.07/barrel. Oil prices are steady to slightly weaker as investors balance supply disruptions linked to escalating US-Venezuela tensions with global oversupply concerns and the impact of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Oil futures contracts slid more than 4% last week, weighed down by expectations of a surplus in 2026.
Grain Markets
Chicago soybean futures are trading steady to less than a penny higher to start this morning. Bean futures fell 15 to 17 cents/bu lower on Friday. Weekly losses were 28 cents in the nearby Jan contract. Soymeal futures near unchanged this morning after ending narrowly mixed on Friday, but lower on the week. Soyoil futures are narrowly mixed, after losing 55 to 83 points on Friday, with the Jan contract down 162 points last week.
Chartwise…the head-and-shoulders technical breakdown on price charts remains active; January beans eyeing the 100-day moving average at $10.68/bu, which sits right in the middle of the chart gap.
Soybeans posted declines last week as traders worried that the window for US soybean exports was closing, with Brazilian farmers set to start harvesting a bumper crop in just a few weeks.
Traders will watch for any daily US flash export sales. Last week, there were four daily flash sales to China, totaling 667,000 tonnes, as well as over 544,000 tonnes to unknown destinations. US officials have said top global buyer China would purchase 12 MMT of the oilseed following a trade truce in late October. But the actual sales pace continues to lag considerably.
Brazilian crop agency Conab on Thursday lowered its forecast of the country s 2025-26 soybean crop to 177.12 MMT, though still a record high, if confirmed.
Chicago corn futures are steady to less than a penny weaker this morning. The corn market closed Friday s session with contracts down 4 to 6 cents across most nearbys. March corn settled last week with a 4 cent loss…currently trading at chart support at $4.40, with overhead resistance at $4.50.
Traders are watching the corn market as it seesaws in a tight trading range between strong demand and fallout pressure from the soybean market. As demand supports the bulls, traders will wait for next month’s USDA crop production report, which may show a reduction in 2025 US corn production. Until then, lower volume holiday trading could dominate into month-end.
Traders are also eying crop development conditions in Argentina and Brazil, which generally look good.
US wheat markets are weaker this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures mostly around 1 to 2 cents lower, while the winter wheat markets are losing 3 to 5 cents. The US wheat complex closed down on Friday…spring wheat fractionally lower on Friday, but the March contract was up 2.75 cents/bu on the week…but winter wheats were lower for the week.
Wheat can t catch a break it s an unofficial slogan…but what s new. Not a whole lot stopping wheat from re-testing recent lows. Big global supply + aggressive exporter selling = price pressure.
Harvest is moving forward in Argentina, which now has the lowest wheat price on the world market, likely cutting into demand for North American wheat, at least to some extent. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 60% of Argentina s crop is harvested, with production at 25.5 MT, compared to the most recent guess of 27.7 MMT from the Rosario Grain Exchange.
Harvest activity is also ongoing in Australia, while winter wheat conditions in the US, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine are generally non-threatening, though portions of Central Europe and the Black Sea region could use some precipitation.
Canada produced a record large spring wheat crop in 2025…29.3 MMT, up from 2024 s 26.5 MMT and up from the five-year average of 24.2 MMT. There was trade expectations earlier in fall that protein price premiums would increase, but there appears to be sufficient supply when accounting for the larger production in Canada and the US.
Canada also harvested 7.1 MMT of durum this year, up from 6.4 MMT last year and up from the five-year average of 5.2 MMT. The market has already adjusted to this large crop size. Just a quick look at Prairie cash pricing…durum bids for immediate delivery are at a slight premium to the deferred positions…suggesting a move to sell durum earlier than later.
CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET
ICE canola futures fell heavily to end the week, with Chicago soybeans and soyoil also posting losses. Weakness in Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed added to the downside in canola, along with declines in crude oil. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar continues to hover near 3-month highs against its American counterpart, a further negative factor for canola.
Lagging exports remain bearish, although the latest numbers from the Canadian Grain Commission showed 289,200 tonnes exported for the week ended Dec. 7. That was the largest of the marketing year, but the year-to-date pace remains well behind last year.
January canola lost $16.30 on Friday to close at to $605/tonne, and March was down $15.10 at $617.70.
For today… canola futures were posting some modest corrective overnight, but has now turned to $2/tonne declines. Benchmark Jan futures are down $2.30 this morning at $604.20/tonne. That comes following Friday s stiff sell-off and push below the October harvest low. Canola is searching for some positive news to offset the overall negative commodity vibe these days.
It was at least somewhat encouraging to see the latest canola weekly export shipments picking up to 289,200 tonnes for the week ended Dec 7 (Week 18). But shipments for the marketing year to date at 2.376 MMT still trails far behind the 4.029 MMT pace to the same week last year.
In related markets…CBOT soybeans are only fractionally mixed this morning, but are in decline generally over the past two weeks. Soy and palm oil markets are trending weaker with energy markets. Jan bean oil is again flirting with chart support down at 50.00 US cents/lbs amid the lack of progress out of Washington on increased US biofuel policy.
European rapeseed are quietly lower this morning.
We all know about the record 21.8 MMT canola crop harvested in 2025, above the 19.2 MMT produced in 2024. But farmer deliveries into the elevator system are down ~900,000 tonnes this marketing year to date compared to this time last year. It does make me wonder…is a surge in capitulation selling from the farmer coming in the first quarter of 2026? And if so, without fresh China buying, what will that do to Prairie cash basis and net cash return?
The canola market is coming to terms with larger supply this marketing year, but demand being lower because of lacking China buying…remains a work in progress.
On the feed grains… The holiday season typically quiets down for feedlots and feed grain markets writes MarketsFarm reporter Adam Peleshaty.
Feeders seem to be very well-covered going into the holidays, says trader Evan Peterson of JGL Commodities in Moose Jaw, Sask. The markets are still staying very quiet . Cash feed barley bids delivered Lethbridge are holding in the $265 to $270/tonne range. Barley is priced $20/tonne less than the value of imported US corn landed into south Alberta, maintaining barley as the preferred grain at feedlots.
Peterson says that while grain movement continues at a good pace, buying and selling on the markets are slowing down, describing recent activity as execution mode compared to buying and selling mode .
Delivered feed grain prices in Lethbridge have come off recent lows and demand has stayed strong, but he expects little price movement for a while. Personally, I think the market s going to be sideways for the next few months until the spring, Peterson said. I m kind of anticipating slow trade in the next six to eight weeks, anyway.
Looking back at this year, what stood out most for Peterson were the high crop yields relative to previous years. We moved a lot of grain off the combine. Right now, the producers seem to be fairly comfortable with what they ve sold. They re kind of waiting for the next round of selling and we ll see what happens when the calendar turns, he added.
Canadian barley remains price competitive via export channels into the world market; therefore, downside price risk seems limited. We suspect that eventually, the domestic market will need to increase to ration demand away from export channels.
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