GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS
OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE
ICE canola futures are trading again this morning coming out of the August long weekend, rallying $5 to $6/tonne higher, recovering a small portion of the losses posted last week.
US grain markets are mixed to weaker this morning, while the CBOT soy complex is a little higher. Chicago soybeans are mostly up 3 to 5 cents/bu this morning.
Chicago corn futures are down around a penny this morning and hit a contract low overnight.
US winter wheat futures are 2 to 3 cents lower and hit fresh contract lows overnight. Minnie spring wheat futures are narrowly mixed.
US grain market bulls are sliding off a slippery slope amid price downtrends in place that have also seen prices fall below what were important near-term technical support levels.
The US row-crop markets diverged on Monday with new crop corn contracts looking for a bottom, closing 3 cents/bu lower, soybeans up 5 cents, and wheat down a penny.
Market bears continue to the upper hand across US corn, soybeans and wheat futures trade in anticipation of big crops. August weather will be key, especially in soybeans, with traders looking to the August USDA crop production report (Aug 12), which is farm-survey based.
No confirmation of trade talks between the US and China has not helped market sentiment.
US corn/bean conditions look good… Not a lot of changes for the USDA’s US national crop condition ratings over the past week. Development weather continues to be seen as generally favorable in much of the US Midwest and Plains.
73% of US corn is called good to excellent, unchanged on the week, with 88% silking, 42% at the dough making stage, and 6% dented, all close to normal.
69% of US soybeans are good to excellent, 1% lower than last week, and 85% of the crop is blooming and 58% are at the pod setting stage, near the respective five-year averages. The bottom line is that the bean crop continues to be rated a little better than the long-term average
86% of US winter wheat was harvested as of Sunday, compared to 87% on average, with more than half of the main states past 95%.
48% of US spring wheat is in good to excellent shape, down 1%, with 95% headed and 5% harvested, behind average due to recent rain.
In Other News
– Proposed Canada-US trade deal could still be weeks away… A proposed Canada-US trade deal could still be weeks away, Ottawa’s chief negotiator said on Friday, a day after US President Donald Trump imposed higher tariffs on imports from Canada. Trump, who had set an August 1 deadline for an agreement, signed an executive order increasing tariffs on Canadian goods to 35% from 25% on all products not covered by the Canada-US-Mexico trade agreement (CUSMA). Most agricultural goods remain exempt from tariffs under CUSMA.
Prime Minister Mark Carney insisted on the talks to reset bilateral relations, saying Trump’s tariffs have upended decades-old trading and security ties. The negotiations, though, have so far produced little. Although over 90% of Canadian exports enter the United States without duties, the tariffs apply to crucial sectors such as steel, aluminum and automobiles.
Federal cabinet minister Dominic LeBlanc, in charge of US trade relations, said Canada had always made clear it would only accept a good deal. “That agreement was not yet in sight…there remain sectors the Americans are targeting which are essential for the Canadian economy,” he said. “Over the coming weeks we will continue talks with the Americans in an attempt to find a deal that would put us in a better position.”
The White House continues to ridiculously cite false claims regarding Canada’s failure to stop fentanyl smuggling and address US concerns about trade barriers. Washington is also unhappy about Canada’s refusal to drop its own countermeasures in response to Trump tariffs.
Trade deals
In the high stakes wheeling and dealing in trade negotiations with the US, some insight on what it takes dealing with Donald Trump. South Korean ministers tasked with negotiating a last-ditch trade deal with the US president said that to prepare they role-played and solicited tips for engaging with the unpredictable leader. Among the advice they received? Call Trump a “great person” and speak as “simply” as possible.
Trump’s tariffs are already changing global trade
– Canada to meet Mexico; EU to suspend US tariff countermeasures… The European Union says it will suspend its two packages of countermeasures to US tariffs for six months after reaching a deal with US President Donald Trump. The EU-U.S. agreement leaves many questions open.
What’s next for Canada: Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne and Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand are heading to Mexico City this week to hold bilateral meetings with government officials, just days after both countries failed to reach trade agreements with the US. The two days of talks, which will tackle trade and the broader relationship between the countries, begin today.
Elsewhere…Trump says he will hit India with higher tariffs for buying Russian oil.
– Grain prices respond to tariff updates… Market analysts say the uncertainty from Trump trade tariffs continues to weigh on US grain prices. Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag Risk Management says it’s hitting soybean prices the hardest, followed by wheat and corn, and he notes “it’s causing a lot of countries to take a step back and re-evaluate. Either to look at getting more negotiations done on trade deals with the US or look at other routes to get their needs met.”
President Trump recently signed an executive order that updated reciprocal tariffs for some countries that go into effect August 7 and increased tariffs immediately for countries like Canada. Canada has a new tariff rate of 35%. However, for the time being, products included in the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement are stiff exempt from tariffs.
“It’s going to impact the trade relationship we have with Canada,” says Martinson. “That’s been an easy one to deal with because it’s right across the border and easy to ship to.”
Don Roose with US Commodities says other big trading partners for US agriculture, like Mexico, have a deadline extension of 90 days before tariffs go into effect. “You know, a 25% tariff remains on auto and a 50% tariff on steel. And we’re still working on a deal with China, which is by far our largest soybean importer in the world,” says Roose. “And we are on hold with new business there.”
Roose says if trade discussions between the US and China continue to drag out, it would be negative for the US farmer, because of the potential lost demand from China as the US crop is harvested in the fall. Overall, he says world trade has slowed down.
“With a large crop and big carries in the market, most of these world countries buying grain are buying more hand-to-mouth, because they don’t want to pay a premium for the distant months. How long does that go on? I think you need some crop threatened somewhere around the world to cause more excitement.”
Roose says grain traders will be watching to see what happens with ag exports in the next two weeks. Martinson and Roose say weather is the other factor affecting grain prices.
– What the US dairy industry really wants from Canada… US dairy producers insist they’re not looking for Canada to dismantle its supply management system, but they do want Canada to follow the letter and spirit of the existing deal that governs the dairy trade between the two countries. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly blasted Canada as “unfair” and “ripping us off” with massive dairy tariffs, but of course in a way that isn’t fully accurate.
However, senior figures in the US dairy industry are concerned there’s also some misrepresentation happening north of the border, creating a false perception of what US producers are actually seeking in terms of access to the Canadian market.
Admittedly, I’m no expert on daily policy. But the CBC report in the link below explains the issues from both side of the border in the clearest way I’ve seen to date. And it seems there are legitimate concerns to be addressed for both Canadian and US dairy industries…though it would also seem an equitable solution still exists within the current CUSMA trade agreement.
– Alberta: Higher-than-average yields expected… Cooler temperatures and much-needed rainfall in the south and Peace regions of Alberta improved soil moisture and supported projected yields across the province. In Alberta, 63.4% of crops were in good to excellent condition, ahead of the five-year average of 53% and the 10-year average of 57%.
Potatoes (95.2%), mixed grains (81.2%) and flax (79.8%) fared the best, while oats (54%), chickpeas (56%) and winter wheat (58.5%) were the worst. In the central region, 93% of its crops were rated good to excellent, followed by the northwest at 70%, the south at 64%, the northeast at 59% and 22% in the Peace region.
In its weekly crop report, Alberta released its initial average yield estimates and indexes for major crops. The five-year yield index provincewide was 113.7, meaning the overall yield would be 13.7% above the five-year average, with the 10-year index was 106.2.
The average dry pea yield was estimated at 43.7 bu/acre (bpa) with a five-year index of 123.6. The average yield for canola was projected at 38.6 bpa with a five-year index of 109.1. The spring wheat yield was pegged at 48.4 bpa with an index of 106.9, barley was at 65.2 bpa with an index of 106.8 and oats were at 67.5 bpa with an index of 88, 12% below the five-year average.
Surface moisture in Alberta was rated at 59.6% good to excellent, well above the five-year average of 48.3% and the 10-year average of 51.4%. The best region was the central at 87%, followed by 64% for the south, 39% for the northwest, 37% for the northeast and 32% for the Peace region.
– June US soybean crush, corn for ethanol numbers mixed… The US soybean crush continues to be strong. That’s primarily due to biofuel use projections and solid export demand for vegetable oils. The USDA says 197 million bu of beans were crushed during June 2025, down 7 million from May, but up 14 million from June 2024. US soyoil and meal stocks were both above the previous month, but below last year.
The June corn for US ethanol use numbers were nearly steady, reflecting generally stable US domestic and export demand. The USDA says 447.966 million bushels of corn were used for US biofuel production, up less than 1% the previous month, but down slightly on the year.
– Russian wheat export prices edge down… Russian wheat export prices fell last week, tracking a decline in global prices on expectations that markets will be well-supplied this year as harvesting in major producing countries advance. The price for new crop Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the second half of August was US $236/tonne at the end of last week, down $3 from the previous week, said the IKAR consultancy. SovEcon consultancy estimated offers at $237-$240/tonne, compared with $239-$242 in the previous week.
While drought hit some regions of Russia, that was offset by better crops in some other regions, prompting the government to maintain its grain crop forecast. Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said last week that the harvesting campaign is behind schedule after a late start but the official forecast of 130 MMT of grain and 90 MMT of wheat for this year remains unchanged.
– SovEcon trims 2025 Russian wheat crop forecast… Grain consultancy SovEcon said on Friday that it has downgraded its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop in 2025 to 83.3 MMT from the previous estimate of 83.6 MMT, due to weaker-than-expected yields in the key southern region. The crop in the southern part of Russia is now estimated at 30.2 MMT, down from 32.6 MMT in 2024 and potentially the lowest since 2020, according to SovEcon. “The southern crop has clearly disappointed, and the damage appears worse than many expected,” said Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon.
– Brazil’s soybean output to rise... Agribusiness consultancies on Monday released their first forecasts for Brazil’s 2025/2026 soybean production, expecting an increase in output amid geopolitical uncertainties. Brazil is the world’s top soybean producer, followed by the United States. Celeres Consultoria sees the soybean crop at 177.2 MMT, up 2.5% from the 172.8 MMT in the previous season, while soybean exports are forecast at 110 MMT, up from the previous season’s 106 MMT. Factors such as an expected increase in Brazil’s surplus and uncertainties regarding US foreign policy are supporting growth in oilseed exports in 2025/26, Celeres said in a statement.
Meanwhile, StoneX expects a 5.6% increase in Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop, forecasting production of 178.2 MMT on higher planted area and yields. The consultancy expects the soybean area in the country to increase by 2% in the 2025/26 season, with the increase in productivity driven by a recovery of the crop in Rio Grande do Sul state, which suffered from extreme floods last year.
– Lentil bids soften as focus shifts to new crop… Lentil prices on the Canadian Prairies eased back during the week ending July 28, said Levon Sargsyan, broker with Johnston’s Grain. Sargsyan noted that’s due to the recent rains that brought relief to some of the dry areas of the region. “Although not as impactful compared to May-June rains, the crop is shaping up to be closer to average than expected,” he said.
Agriculture Canada recently raised its estimate of the 2025 lentil crop by 125,000 tonnes from its June call to now 2.45 MMT. In using Statistics Canada data, the five-year average for lentil production is about 2.20 MMT.
The cash market has been turning its focus largely toward the new crop. Western Canadian lentil prices held somewhat steady this past week for old crop. For new crop lentil pricing, we have seen some declines for the most part. The Lairds dipped two cents on the low end at 35 to 45 cents/lbs delivered. But Reds added a penny at 27 to 29 cents/lb.
– Global pulse consumption to grow… Global consumption of pulse crops is expected to grow a lot over the next decade. Annual per capita consumption is forecast to reach 8.6 kilograms per person in 2034, up from seven kilograms today, according to the report by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization. That is a 23% increase over the next 10 years.
“Health and environmentally conscious consumers are increasingly integrating (pulses) into their daily diets, which in turn is propelling the growth of the global pulses market,” said the OECD/FAO report. “Rapid urbanization, changing lifestyles and hectic work schedules are also making healthy snack foods popular amongst the working population, and pulses are increasingly used in the processing of ready-to-eat food products.”
“Canada will remain the main exporter of pulses, with volumes expected to grow from 4.9 MMT at present to 5.7 MMT by 2034, followed by Australia and Russian Federation with 2.4 MMT and 1.9 MMT of exports by 2034 respectively,” stated the OECD/FAO report. Canada accounts for about a quarter of world pulse trade.
– Palm oil exports fading… Malaysian farmers faces a dilemma that threatens to sap supply from the world’s top palm oil exporters and drive up prices of the vegetable oil essential to billions of consumers worldwide in the next five years. Ageing plantation trees are bearing less fruit, but growers are holding off replacing them as they don’t want to lose income while waiting the three to five years it takes for new trees to start yielding a crop…and the years beyond that it will take for them to reach peak production. Government subsidies to encourage replanting are not as high as they once were and growers need to support their families.
Palm oil makes up more than half of the world’s vegetable oil supply and 85% of the crude product comes from Malaysia and Indonesia. But after decades of soaring output, the market is now at a tipping point as combined exports from the two producers are set to slow sharply, the result of stagnating production and efforts by Indonesia to divert more palm oil into the production of biodiesel. While financial markets have factored in the slowdown, there is growing evidence that plantations run by smallholders may be in worse condition than previously thought as ageing and lower-yielding trees are not replaced, which will add to the decline.
Supplies to global markets from Indonesia and Malaysia could fall as much as 20% over the next five years, according to Reuters’ calculations based on government and industry projections.
– CN sets grain transportation record… Canadian National Rail Co. (CN) delivered a record volume of grain to both domestic and international markets this past crop year, according to its 2025-26 Grain Plan released on July 31. Current projections suggest Western Canadian movement for 2024-25 will total approximately 31 MMT, roughly 1 MMT higher than the previous record, CN said, noting that the figure includes bulk and processed grain by carload.
CN’s rival, Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), announced last week that it expects to transport in excess of 27 MT of Canadian grain and grain products at the end of the 2024-25 crop year, its highest volume since the 2020-21 crop year.
– Beer production going flat… According to USDA, US beer production fell by more than 13% between marketing years 2016/17 and 2023/24. Monthly beer production data through February 2025 suggest this trend is continuing. Based on the 3-year average pace of production for March to May, US beer production is projected to fall below 160 million barrels, compared with 189 million barrels in 2016/17.
Reflecting softening demand for malt barley for use in American brewing, food, alcohol, and industrial use for the 2024/25 marketing year is forecast at an all-time low of 110.7 million bushels, down 27% from 151.6 million bushels in 2016/17.
Outside Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied up 585.06 points on Monday to settle at 44,173.64, while the S&P 500 Index jumped up 91.93 points to 6,329.94. Early Tuesday, September Dow Jones futures are up a modest 14 points.
Global stock markets trying to poke higher this morning as investors raised bets the US Federal Reserve would act to prop up the world’s largest economy. Wall Street stock market rallied yesterday on generally positive earnings reports and increasing bets for a September rate cut from the Fed after disappointing jobs data on Friday hammered markets lower.
TSX futures are following sentiment higher after Canada’s main stock market was closed yesterday for a civic holiday.
The September US Dollar Index is up 0.174 at 98.760. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.63 US cents.
Sept crude oil futures are down $0.91 at US $65.38/barrel. Oil is weaker as traders assess rising OPEC+ supply and worries of weaker global demand, against US President Donald Trump’s threats to India over its Russian oil purchases.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, a move that will end its most recent output cut earlier than planned.
Grain Markets
Chicago soybean futures are trading mostly 3 to 5 cents/bu higher this morning. Futures rounded out Monday’s session with contracts 5 to 7 cents in the green. Soymeal futures are up $2 to $3/ton this morning after posting Monday gains of $1.90 to $6.30/ton. Soyoil futures are mostly 11 to 21 points higher this morning after Monday’s mixed finish…down 22 to 37 points higher.
USDA tallied US soybean export shipments at 612,539 tonnes for the week ended July 31, the highest since April. Old crop US marketing year exports have totaled 47.83 MMT, which is 10.9% above the same period last year.
But note that StoneX projects the 2025 US soybean average yield at 53.6 bu/acre, with big production at 4.425 billion bu. They also pegged the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop at another new record large 178.2 MMT, which is 5.6% higher vs last year, mainly on increased acreage. Celeres estimates the crop at 177.2 MMT.
The soybean market, while up in the past couple of sessions, is still down hard following a steep spring/summer sell-off. Favorable US crop weather, uncertainties associated with China demand, and record-large Brazilian crop output keeps the pressure applied.
Chartwise… Nov bean future are up 5 cents at $9.99/bu this morning. Technically, after bouncing off support levels in the mid $9.80s, a resistance target becomes $10.00…and still trades well below all its key moving averages.
Chicago corn futures are down around a penny to start this morning. The corn market fell lower into Monday’s close, as contracts dropped 3 to 4 cents/bu across most months.
USDA’s weekly crop progress report from Monday showed the US corn crop at 88% silking, with 42% in the dough stage. The crop was also listed at 6% dented. Conditions were steady this week, at 73% good/excellent conditions.
StoneX estimates the US corn crop at a massive 188.1 bu/acre national yield average, with the production total at a whopping 16.323 billion bu. Their Brazilian corn second crop estimate is at 111.7 MMT, which is up 3.5 MMT from their previous number.
Traders positioning themselves ahead of next week’s August USDA supply/demand report (Aug 12) and may be using yield models with this week’s 73% good/excellent rating and favorable weather.
Chartwise… Dec corn is down 1.5 cents this morning at $4.05/bu. Technically, a test of $4.00 would appear to be the bearish objective for the week. To the upside, a recovery above $4.10 would be welcomed; however, the trend does not support that move.
US wheat markets are mixed this morning…mostly around 2 to 3 cents lower on the winter wheats, while spring wheat futures are narrowly mixed. The US wheat complex was also quiet on Monday…spring wheat closed with fractionally mixed trade. But all wheat markets are trading at contract lows.
Monday’s USDA cop progress report rated US spring wheat at 48% good/excellent condition, below the trade’s estimate of 49%, and below a week ago by one point. The US winter wheat harvest is 86% completed as of August 2.
Rains in the northern US Plains spring wheat areas have been helpful for crop development, but Western Canada remains too dry for top yield potential. Canada still has the potential to produce an average to above-average crop.
Canadian weekly wheat exports were strong last week at 429,400 tonnes, which pushed the crop-year-to-date total to 22.05 MMT. This is 1.3 MMT above last year’s total. The good news is that terminal stocks in Vancouver and Prince Rupert were 293,700 tonnes. Wheat stocks on the West Coast are enough to support modest exports over the last days remaining during the crop year. This should push crop year exports above 22.2 MMT. Wheat prices maybe disappointing, but Canadian exports this past year were at record levels.
CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET
ICE canola futures faced widespread declines across all listed contracts on Friday, with losses deepening toward the front of the curve. The Nov canola contract led Friday’s downward slide, dropping by $12.90 to close at $682.50/tonne. January 2026 followed closely behind, shedding $12.10 to finish at $693.80/tonne.
Price pressure to end last week suggested broader bearish sentiment in the canola market, possibly tied to external oilseed market influences or improved weather outlooks in key growing regions.
For today though… canola futures are rebounding $5 to $6/tonne higher this morning. Nov canola futures are up $5.80 at $688.30/tonne, but lost $17.90/t last week ended Friday. Nov’s 20-day moving average ($692) now trades below its 50-day ($700)…with $700 serving as overhead resistance.
But there are bargain-hunters in the market this morning, which is price supportive. Higher CBOT soy complex, EU rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil futures this morning is also helping our canola.
Provincial crop condition reports offer little clarity on yield potential other than a recovery from early drought conditions. That said, tight canola supply and strong demand remains a market backdrop.
Canadian canola exports are likely to end up the third strongest in the past 10 years according to the CGC weekly data. Canola exports in week 51 ended July 27 did weakened to only 55,100 tonnes. But that still pushed total exports for the 2024-25 crop year to that date to 9.492 MMT with a couple days left in the marketing year to July 31.
Looking ahead…canola supplies are expected to be lower in 2025-26. MarketsFarm estimates canola production will reach 18.6 MMT this year, which is 550,000 tonnes below last year. Agriculture Canada is projecting a crop of only 17.8 million tonnes which causes total beginning supply to drop to only 19 MMT in the 2025-26. Any way you slice it, canola exports will have to be limited in the 2025-26 crop year. That should help support prices through the marketing year.
On the feed grains… Feed grain prices in Alberta moved lower last week following recent rains, but some specials have popped up for Aug/Sept delivery…supported by prospects of tighter old crop carryout.
Alberta crops currently in field are in decent shape but there are pockets where they’re poor. Crops are fairly good in the areas of the province that produce the lion’s share of the feed grains. That has caused feed barley and wheat prices to slip back. Old crop feed barley at $250/tonne, delivered Edmonton.
Buyers are not buying huge amounts…very minimal as they’re hoping for new crop to really weigh on prices.
To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/
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