AM market report, Aug. 14, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

After a rebound bounce yesterday following recent steep losses, ICE canola are trading $6 to $7/tonne lower so far this morning…relinquishing a good portion of Wednesday’s brief rebound gains as the China trade threat (tariffs) still looms large.

Chicago soybean futures are down 4 to 7 cents/bu this morning, with the nearbys leading the losses. Bean futures are seeing some routine profit-taking pressure, following good gains posted this week, including after the price-friendly USDA data on Tuesday which estimated fewer US soy acres and lower ending stocks.

Chicago corn futures are 3 to 4 cents weaker and again pressing fresh contract lows…smarting amid a bearish USDA report has for the grain markets…record large US corn crop on the way. The prospect of a record US harvest is set to further bolster global supply as Brazil wraps up its own bumper harvest while in Ukraine, another major exporter, corn crop expectations are rising.

US winter wheat futures are mostly 4 to 6 cents lower, while spring wheat steady to a penny weaker. Wheat price charts remain bearish with hefty global supplies continuing to hang over the market. Harvest progress in the Northern Hemisphere is weighing on wheat. The market was also awaiting Friday’s meeting between autocrats US President Donald Trump and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin as a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire could facilitate exports from the major wheat-producing countries.

In Other News

– Variable Manitoba weather brings relief, harvest delays… Manitoba saw a mix of beneficial rainfall and severe weather over the past week, bringing relief to crops in some areas while delaying harvest in others. Isolated storms swept through the southern portion of the province, delivering between about 6 mm and more than 145 mm of rain, according to the weekly provincial crop report released Tuesday.

Harvest is underway for winter wheat and fall rye, with spring cereals advancing from soft to hard dough stages. Canola development varies widely, with early fields podded and late crops just finishing bloom. Flax and sunflowers continue to mature.

In the Southwest, recent rains have aided pod fill in canola and longer-season crops, though hail damaged fields near Boissevain and Ninette. Harvest has slowed but is progressing on winter cereals.

The Northwest faced warm, smoky conditions and heavy rains that caused lodging in some cereals. Harvest is paused while fields dry. Pea harvest has begun, and canola is mostly podded, but high heat has caused sunscald and pod abortion in some fields.

The Central Region saw mixed rainfall, boosting corn and soybean development. Harvest is well underway, with winter wheat and fall rye harvested over the past week, as well as the earliest spring cereals and peas. Most producers are preparing for harvest to commence within the next one to two weeks. Some spring wheat and barley fields are showing moisture stress and plant death from early root issues.

In the Eastern region, good rainfall supported corn and soybeans, but wet conditions delayed harvest. Early spring wheat harvesting has begun in the far east, with no yield data yet.

The Interlake benefited from rains that supported later-seeded crops. Harvest of winter cereals has begun but paused due to weather, with preliminary winter wheat yields around 50 bu/acre and fall rye between 70–110 bu/acre. Corn is nearing the early R2 stage.

– Importers struggle to resell Canadian canola meal caught in China tariff crossfire… Importers are struggling to resell several cargoes of Canadian canola meal that arrived in China after Beijing imposed hefty import tariffs on the protein-rich ingredient. As much as 400,000 tonnes of canola meal, used mainly in animal feed, is sitting in secure warehouses near Chinese ports, with importers facing a 100% duty if they release the cargoes for sale in the domestic market. “It is not viable to pay the duty, so we are looking at the possibility of re-selling it to other markets, maybe to feed-makers in Southeast Asia or South Korea,” said an executive with a trading company that is one of the importers of canola meal. “But it will have to be at a discount (30%),” the person said.

China on Tuesday announced a preliminary anti-dumping levy of 75.8% on imports of canola seed from Canada, escalating a year-long trade dispute that began last August with Ottawa’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports.
In March, China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil, meal and pea imports.

– Ukraine 2025 sunseed crop seen at about 14 MMT… Extreme drought in southern Ukraine and parts of the east and centre has sharply reduced sunflower crop estimates for 2025 to no more than 14 MMT from previous estimates of 16 MMT, producers’ union UAC said. However, the union said that the weather was unlikely to affect the corn harvest, which could reach 28 MMT. Ukraine harvested 26 MMT of corn in 2024.

“Moisture reserves in the south and east are extremely low, which is primarily negative for sunflowers, which are abundant in these regions. August is expected to be hot and dry, and these regions will continue to burn,” UAC said in a weekly report. Ukraine is the world major sunflower oil producer and exporter. Ukrainian state weather forecasters said in a report that sunflower yields in southern regions might be among the lowest in the last 10 years.

UAC said the drought only partially affected corn crops, and even continued rainfall deficits would allow for an increased harvest. A larger-than-expected corn harvest of around 28 MMT was the main reason for the higher estimate of overall grain production this year at 56 MMT. The wheat crop outlook was unchanged at about 21 MMT.

– Argentina exchange sees corn planting up… Farmers in Argentina intend to increase corn planting by between 15% and 20% in the 2025/26 season compared to the prior season, the Rosario grains exchange reported. Corn planting in the key food-exporting country begins in September. Last season, 20.5 million acres were planted with corn in Argentina, yielding a harvest of 48.5 MMT. The exchange said the shift was driven by excellent soil moisture reserves for early sowing and the declining appeal of soybeans due to tighter profit margins. Corn and soybeans are both summer crops and compete for area in the South American nation.

Regarding the 2025/26 wheat crop, for which planting has already been completed, the exchange reported that it has adequate moisture reserves and maintained its harvest estimate of 20 MMT. Harvesting of the crop begins in November.

– Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell in July… Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell by 40.6% year-on-year in July to 2.7 MMT, according to industry sources. Exports via Black Sea terminals, which normally account for around 90% of all seaborne grain shipments, decreased by 45.5% year-on-year to 2.3 MMT in July.

Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell by 25.4% in the recently ended 2024-2025 season, which ran from July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025, to around 46 MMT due to the implementation of export quotas in February and lower crop output. Seaborne exports accounted for about 90% of Russia’s total grain exports last season.

– Large swath of European crop areas in a heat wave... World Weather Inc. reported a developing heat wave has combined with minimal rain to promote aggressive drying in a large section of Europe this week. “Abundant rain and favorable soil moisture earlier this month have crops from Germany through Poland to the Baltic States and western Ukraine in great shape, with plant development going well. However, France, southern parts of the UK and much of the lower Danube River Basin continue to deal with some crop moisture stress and the heat is not going to help that situation. Greater plant stress and downward pressure on production potentials will continue until significant rain and cooling occur, which may be later this month,” said the forecaster.

– Trump warns Putin on not agreeing to ceasefire with Ukraine… US President Trump has warned he would impose “very severe consequences” if Russian President Putin does not agree to a ceasefire agreement. Heading into Friday’s summit with Putin, Trump said he hoped to use the meeting to set up a “quick second meeting” with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Trump was on the receiving end of some harsh language during a call with European leaders ahead of his summit with Vladimir Putin. The US president told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other leaders on Wednesday that he hoped to achieve a ceasefire and get a better understanding of whether a peace deal is possible during Friday’s meeting with the Russian president, two sources familiar with the call told Axios.

“Trump had downplayed the likelihood of major breakthroughs in Alaska, calling it a ‘feel-out meeting,'” the website reported. “But French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who were also on the call, both confirmed afterwards that Trump said he wants to try to obtain a ceasefire.”

Zelensky warned Trump during the call, which lasted more than an hour, that “Putin cannot be trusted,” according to a knowledgeable source, who added that Trump told the leaders that land swaps would be necessary for a peace deal. “Trump said it’s Vladimir and Volodymyr who have to discuss territories with each other, not him,” the source said.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average charged 463.66 points higher on Wednesday to settle at 44,922.27, while the S&P 500 rose 20.82 points to 6,466.58. Early Thursday, the September Dow Jones Futures are down 195 points.

US stock market action has dipped lower this morning following the 7:30 am CT release of higher than expected US Producer Price Index data for July…coming in at +0.90% month-over-month…US inflation running hotter that the Street projection of a 0.2% gain.?

Investors had been wagering the US Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates next month. This news takes some of the stuffing out of that opinion.

TSX futures have also turned lower this morning after another record high close for Canada’s main stock index yesterday.

“A [Fed] rate cut in September seems likely given the recent US job market revisions,” said Ben Bennett, APAC investment strategist at Legal and General Investment Management. “But inflation data remains sticky, and there’s no sign of a serious economic downturn, so the Fed will probably want to keep their options open for the rest of the year,” he said.

The September US Dollar Index is up 0.298 at 97.960. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.55 US cents.

Sept crude oil futures are up $0.88 at US $63.53/barrel. Oil prices were up as investors weighed the potential impact of tomorrow’s US-Russia summit on Ukraine on Russian crude flows, after US President Donald Trump warned of “severe consequences” for Russia if it does not agree to peace.

Meanwhile, world oil supply will rise more rapidly than expected this year and next as OPEC+ members further increase output and supply from outside the group grows, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday. Supply will rise by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from 2.1 million bpd previously forecast, the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, said in a monthly report, and by a further 1.9 million bpd next year.

OPEC+ is adding more crude to the market after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies decided to unwind its most recent layer of output cuts more rapidly than earlier scheduled. The extra supply, along with concern about the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs, has weighed on oil this year. Supply is rising far faster than demand in the IEA’s view. It expects world oil demand to rise only by 680,000 bpd this year and 700,000 bpd next year, both down 20,000 bpd from the previous forecast.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 4 to 7 cents/bu lower this morning, led by the nearby contracts as market bulls take a breather following strong gains posted this week. Bulls pushed back into the close on Wednesday, with contracts up 10 to 12 cents at the close. Nov bean futures yesterday filled the gap from the post-July 4th weekend…but are down 7 cents this morning at $10.37/bu.

Soymeal futures are showing small gains this morning up $1/ton, adding to yesterday $3 to $5/ton gains. But soyoil futures are down 62 to 80 points this morning.

USDA this morning reported old crop US soybean export sales cancellations 377,600 tonnes for the week ended Aug 7…completely off trade expectations of 200,000 to 700,000 tonnes made. New crop business though came in strong at 1.133 MMT, beating trade ideas of 400,000 to 900,000 tonnes. Note the US soybean marketing year ends Aug 31…so we may have seen some shifting of old crop sales to new crop.

Soon though, the market will be weighed down by slower new crop sales combined with a large US bean harvest around the corner. Nearly ideal development weather will be needed to hit USDA’s record US soy yield estimate. For now, crop conditions generally look favorable in most key US growing areas until at least late this month.

The trade continues to wait for some kind of public progress in trade talks with China, but indications from the Trump administration are that high level discussions might not happen for quite some time.

Chicago corn futures are down 3 to 4 cents this morning and pressing contract lows again amid record large US crop ideas. The corn market bounced a bit Wednesday with contracts up 2 to 3 cents, as bulls were in recovery mode from Tuesday’s sell-off. But price charts are not looking encouraging for market bulls presently. Dec corn futures trading 3.5 cents lower this morning at $3.94/bu.

USDA this morning reported old crop US corn export sales cancellations 88,700 tonnes for the week ended Aug 7…completely off trade expectations of 150,000 to 600,000 tonnes made. New crop business though came in strong at 2.048 MMT, though within the wide range of trade expectations of 0.9 to 2.4 MMT. Note the US corn marketing year ends Aug 31…so we may have seen some shifting of old crop sales to new crop.

Data shows a total of 1.093 million barrels per day of US ethanol production in the week ending on August 8, an increase of 12,000 bpd from last week and 21,000 bpd from the same week last year. Stocks saw a massive draw of 1.107 million barrels to 22.649 million barrels, the lowest since December.

CONAB estimates the Brazilian corn crop at record large 137 MMT, which was a jump of 5.03 MMT from last month. That mainly came via a 5.02 MMT increase to the second crop at 109.56 MMT. Meanwhile, the Rosario Grains Exchange estimates the Argentina corn area in the main regions up 15 to 20% for 2025/26.

US wheat markets are feeling soft again…probably taking some direction from contract low corn futures and ideas of abundant near-term global wheat supplies amid the soon to be completed Northern Hemisphere winter wheat harvest. Minnie spring wheat futures are steady to a penny lower this morning, HRW is 2 to 3 cents lower and SRW wheat is down 2 cents. The US wheat complex closed mixed across the three markets on Wednesday, with spring wheat mixed…nearby Sept down a quarter cent and Dec up a penny. Wheat remains in a bearish price trend, and spec funds remain net short the market.

USDA this morning reported US wheat corn export sales at a solid 722,800 tonnes for the week ended Aug 7, though within the range of trade expectations of 400,000 and 850,000 tonnes.

The US winter wheat harvest is close to wrapping up and spring wheat harvest is slower than normal. The trade’s also watching harvest activity in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, along with crops in Argentina, and Australia. The spring wheat harvest in Canada will be ramping up soon.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures gained back a portion of the previous day’s heavy losses on Wednesday. The canola was battered on Tuesday in the wake of an announcement from China that it had slapped a provisional anti-dumping duty of nearly 76% on imports of Canadian canola beginning Thursday.

China is Canada’s second-largest market for canola and related products, with exports valued at $4.9 billion in 2024. If upheld, the preliminary duty will make Canadian canola commercially unviable in China.

Canola also garnered support from gains in Chicago soy complex and advances in palm oil and European rapeseed.

November canola finished Wednesday $9.50 higher at $659.80/tonne, and January was up $9.70 at $672.80.

For today… canola futures this morning $6 to $7/tonne in the red, giving back a portion of yesterday’s brief rebound. Nov canola is $6.80 lower right now at $653.00/tonne…so far holding the support line at its 200-day moving average ($649), but still very much on a bearish trend since peaking in June.

The China story remains the dominant feature on traders’ minds, with a 76% preliminary import tariff going into effect today on Canadian canola. All canola trade with China for the time being…our largest seed export market…has come to a streaking halt. The marketplace is still in the process of coming to terms with the shockwaves pulsing through Canada’s ag sector with this week’s move by China.

Amid multiple trade wars and ongoing negotiations, global trade is in flux. But one should not be rushed into panic selling this week. China seed business of 4 to 5 MMT is not easily replaceable in the short term for sure. But canola seed supply for marketing year 2025-26 is not burdensome…though the trade certainly has some work cut out for it altering the global canola trade matrix.

It would help if the Carney government steps up with some help for the canola producer. After all it is the Liberal government’s initiative to place 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs, steel and aluminum which triggered this retaliatory response from Beijing.

Canola price action is going to be choppy in the short term until the dust settles a little bit. Then, there are underlying supply/demand factors to consider and some of the fundamentals come through, and we have harvest coming soon.

Related outside market influences today… Chicago soybeans and soyoil, EU rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil futures are weaker. Though palm oil is softer after a four-session winning streak…hitting contracts highs.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/