WINNIPEG (Staff) – At times, high-pressure systems and some thunder seemed to move into a conference room where Canadian and U.S. forecasters met to talk about how they predict the weather.
Depending on their discipline, forecasters differ in methods of measuring weather anomalies, the factors that should be monitored and the causes of unusual weather.
Forecasts also depend on what side of the border they originate from. Brian Fehr of the Winnipeg Climate Centre said U.S. forecasters tend to use many models plus a bit of subjectivity to come up with a prediction, while Canadians are more objective and shy away from gut feelings.
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Fehr said Canadian scientists are good at up to five-day forecasts. “We’ve got a good handle on day one,” he said. “We do that very well, but we have progressively less skill as you move outwards.”
Seasonal predictions
Canadian weather experts have historically focused on short-term forecasts for aviation and military efforts, Fehr said, but a gap exists in the ability to make seasonal predictions.
Fehr said forecasters in the U.S. are at least 10 years ahead in expertise in long-range forecasts.
Even so, the centre can only make long-range forecasts for certain pockets of the U.S., said Paul Bullock, director of the Canadian Wheat Board’s weather and crop surveillance department.
Bullock said the U.S. centre won’t release a forecast unless it’s sure that it’s reasonably accurate. “So at some times of the year a lot of the areas on the map will be blank.”
Fehr said that in a best-case scenario, which depends on funding, Canadian forecasters will be able to make some seasonal predictions in 10 years. But even this prediction is uncertain.
“I think we’ll be further along,” he said. “Will we be far enough along to make it valuable to … the farmer and to the transportation industry in general? I’m just not sure.”
