Unseasonably warm weather that allows sunbathing in March and makes skiers dodge rocks cannot all be blamed on global warming, says one meteorologist.
Madhav Khandekar, former research scientist with Environment Canada, said reviews of recent studies do not conclusively link greenhouse gases, global warming and climate change. “It’s an uncertain science at best,” he said, noting better reporting techniques and climate models are needed over a 100- to 200-year span to draw any conclusions.
While temperatures show warming of one degree, measurements in the upper atmosphere do not, he said. Surface warming is probably more related to the impact of human development.
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“You get the impression it is going on uniformly all over the world and it’s just not true,” he told a gathering at the University of Saskatchewan March 7.
Khandekar said carbon dioxide levels have risen steadily while temperatures have fluctuated and fallen during the same period. Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere increased by 30 percent from 1960 to 1992.
While some studies show strong links between global warming and climate change, others explain the changes on large-scale atmospheric factors and increased solar radiation. Some studies even show how aerosols offset the effects of greenhouse gases. Khandekar said Quebec’s ice storm and Asian monsoons have more to do with El Nino than global warming.
“Any unusual weather is accused of being related to global warming.”
Last month, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its third report since 1990, expressing heightened concern about the impact of global warming on climate change. Its models predict drier conditions on the Prairies over the next decade.
“Unique natural ecosystems such as prairie wetlands … will be at risk and effective adaptation is unlikely,” the panel’s report said.
Mike Anderson, Canadian director of the Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl Research, the research arm of Ducks Unlimited, said there is uncertainty associated with any single climate projection, but DU is bracing for the worst.
Anderson fears any climate change will further aggravate stress on habitats. Global warming could have an impact on wetlands and waterfowl in the Prairies, reducing soil moisture, the number of wetlands in the spring and the size of the duck population that breeds there.
He said wetland preservation could play a role in reducing the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases as some wetlands, grasslands and forests retain carbon.
“Ironically, while these natural habitats are threatened by climate change, their conservation may be one way that humans can help mitigate some of the consequences of a warmer world,” Anderson said.
Khandekar cautioned against knee-jerk reactions to theories about global warming. He said climate change occurred when global warming was not a factor, citing a mini ice age in Europe from 1500 to 1700.
“There’s a lot of deficiencies in the climate models, so don’t jump to any conclusions,” he said.
