MOSCOW (Reuters) — SovEcon analysts have trimmed Russia’s 2011 grain crop forecast to 87-88 million tonnes from 87-90 million tonnes, while keeping its 2011-12 export forecast at 20 million, the firm’s chief executive officer and president said.
“As the harvesting campaign is moving to the Urals and Siberia, the yields are declining and average yields may prove to be close to those in 2009,” Andrei Sizov Sr. told a meeting of traders and corporate analysts.
The forecast ran counter to estimates the previous week of a grain crop that could top 90 million tonnes.
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Russia officially expects to harvest 85-90 million tonnes this year, although some analysts believe the crop could be bigger. Last year, severe drought slashed production to 61 million tonnes of grain.
SovEcon estimates this year’s grain harvesting area at 107.7 million acres, down from 117.6 million acres in 2009 when the country harvested 97 million tonnes.
“Therefore, we believe estimates of above 90 million tonnes are over optimistic,” Sizov said.
SovEcon predicts that Russia will reap 55.2 million tonnes of wheat, down from 61.7 million in 2009, and 15.7 million tonnes of barley, compared with 17.9 million in 2009.
It pegged the corn crop at five million tonnes, an increase from 3.1 million harvested last year, but far from the record 6.7 million tonnes in 2008.
Grain prices had been rising rapidly in Russia in the last couple of weeks, with domestic milling wheat prices approaching the $229.30 per tonne level that officials said might trigger export duties to cool the export pace.
But a senior agriculture ministry official on Aug. 26 said duties were not necessary because “the market will regulate itself” when Ukraine and Kazakhstan re-enter the market.
SovEcon forecasts that grain exports are expected to reach 20 million tonnes in 2011-12 crop year and will include 18 million tonnes of wheat and 1.6 million tonnes of barley, although Sizov said the barley forecast may prove to be conservative as demand for the cereal rises.
