Canola futures edged higher Wednesday despite the stronger loonie and perceptions that the canola crop is doing well in most areas.
A Reuters survey of Canadian crop analysts released Wednesday said the area sown was likely less than what Statistics Canada forecast in its June 23 report.
The Reuters survey canola acreage estimates ranged from 17.6 million to 19.4 million acres, with an average of 18.4 million.
The Statistics Canada June 23 forecast was 19.8 million and last year farmers seeded 16.8 million.
The Reuters production estimate range was 12.3 million tonnes to 14.5 million with an average of 13.3 million. Agriculture Canada’s forecast as of July 5 was for 13.4 million tonnes of production. Last year’s crop was 11.9 million tonnes.
The Reuters survey put wheat acres at 22.4 million, down from the StatsCan survey of 23.6 million. All wheat production was forecast at 23.3 million tonnes, down from the Agriculture Canada forecast of 24 million tonnes but similar to last year’s production of 23.2 million tonnes.
The average of oats forecasts in the Reuters survey was 3.4 million acres, down from 3.8 million in the StatsCan report, but up from last year’s 2.9 million
The average of the oats production estimates was 2.7 million tonnes, down from the Agriculture Canada forecast of 2.85 million, but up from last year’s 2.3 million.
The final size of the harvest will depend greatly on when the first frost arrives. The crop was seeded late and will need a frost-free late summer to reach maturity undamaged.
Corn fell on Wednesday on forecasts for cooler and wetter weather in the U.S. Midwest by next week. Analysts are trying to determine how much damage was caused by the heat wave.
Spring wheat futures rose on the recent heat in the northern plains and hot weather in Russia. But worries remain that Black Sea regions will produce a big crop that will weigh on wheat prices.
The Canadian dollar rose another half a cent against the American buck after the Bank of Canada released a monetary policy report that added to the outlook for higher interest rates this fall.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola Nov 11 $567.30, up $1.80
Canola Jan 12 $574.50, up $1.70
Canola Mar 12 $580.90, up $2.30
Canola May 12 $584.60, up 80 cents
The previous day’s best basis was $10 under the November contract according to ICE Futures Canada in Winnipeg.
The July contract’s 14-day Relative Strength Index was 47. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market.
Western Barley Oct 11 $205, unchanged
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans Aug 11 $13.7825, down 1.0 cent
Soybeans Sep 11 $13.79, up 2.0
Soybeans Jan 12 $13.9325, up 2.5
Corn Sep 11 $6.88, down 10.0
Corn Mar 12 $6.8975, down 9.5
Oats Sep 11 $3.535, unchanged
Oats Mar 12 $3.75, unchanged
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat Sep 11 $8.52-6, up 19.75 cents
Spring Wheat Dec 11 $8.54-2, up 19.25
Spring Wheat Mar 12 $8.63-2, up 18.25
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 64 cents to $98.14 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was $1.0550 US, up from $1.0520 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was 94.79 cents Cdn.
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite index closed up 7.91 points, or 0.06 percent, at 13,340.83.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 0.85 points, or 0.06 percent, at 1,325.88 with worries about the debt ceiling deadline overshadowing strong profit at Apple.
