Weather forecasting is far from an exact science, but Environment Canada climatologists are confident that the summer of 2011 will be warmer than usual on the Prairies.
Environment Canada’s forecasting models are predicting warm weather t for the entire Prairies, with the exception of the western edge of Alberta, which will likely have normal temperatures in June and possibly above normal in July and August, said David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada.
“Eighty percent of Alberta, all of Saskatchewan and all of Manitoba are in the warmer than normal category,” said Phillips, one of Canada’s best-known weather experts.
Warmer than normal, according to Environment Canada’s definition, is one degree Celsius or more above historical average temperatures for the summer months.
If the forecast pans out, the shorts and sandals weather will be a godsend for folks in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, who have suffered through a year of cool weather, Phillips said.
The public and media have focused on snow, rain and flooding in recent months, he noted, but prairie folk have also been exposed to persistently cool weather over the last year.
As an example of how cool it’s been, Phillips pointed to temperature data from Regina.
“In the last 13 months (in Regina), 11 have been cooler than normal.”
Phillips and others at Environment Canada are confident that June, July and August will be warmer than usual in Western Canada because computer models are consistently predicting a balmy summer.
As for rainfall on the Prairies in June, July and August, the models aren’t favouring a particular outcome. There is an equal chance of a wet summer, a normal summer or a dry summer, Phillips said.
Environment Canada officially releases its summer forecast June 1.
