Canola rises on slow seeding and strong wheat prices

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Published: May 19, 2011

Canola futures climbed again on Thursday, supported by late seeding and rising wheat prices.

July closed up $2.40 at $574.50 per tonne.

The slow pace of deliveries as farmers rush to seed also supported canola.

Saskatchewan Agriculture reported Thursday that the province’s farmers have planted 23 percent of their crops, compared to the five-year average of 44 percent.

Last year 28 percent had been planted.

So far, 46 percent of peas, 35 percent of lentils, 28 percent of durum, 22 percent of spring wheat and 20 percent of canola has been seeded.

Minneapolis wheat climbed higher on worries about drought in Western Europe, seeding delays in Canada and North Dakota and drought damage in the U.S. hard red winter wheat region.

Chicago wheat initially jumped higher but later fell back on profit taking, which also pressured corn down.

Soybeans were little changed.

Corn and soybeans still have support from late seeding and a forecast for rain that will further delay work in the Midwest late this week.

The ICE Canada futures exchange in Winnipeg says it will introduce spring wheat and durum futures contracts to prepare for the end of the Canadian Wheat Board monopoly. Federal Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz said Wednesday the Conservative government would introduce legislation to end the monopoly in time for the start of the 2012-13 crop year.

Rabobank, a closely watched agricultural lender, forecasts world wheat production at 657.6 million tonnes, up 10 million from last year. However, that is more bullish than the USDA’s forecast last week of a 21 million tonne increase.

Rabobank expects demand will exceed supply for the third year in a row, driving down stocks by the end of the 2011-12 crop year.

The bank said it might have to reduce its forecasts further if bad weather continues to present growing problems in Europe and North America.

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola Jul 11       $574.50, up $2.40

Canola Nov 11        $580.40, up $3.60

Canola Jan 12        $587.40, up $3.50

Canola Mar 12        $590.90, up $2.20

The previous day’s best basis narrowed to $10 under the July contract according to ICE Futures Canada in Winnipeg.

The May contract’s 14-day Relative Strength Index was 53. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market

Western Barley Jul 11        205, unchanged

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans Jul 11        $13.795, unchanged

Soybeans Aug 11        $13.7175, down 1.0 cents

Soybeans Nov 11        $13.495, down 3.75

Corn Jul 11        $7.4825, down 1.5

Corn Dec 11        $6.62, down 10.75

Oats Jul 11        $3.64, down 3.0

Oats Dec 11        $3.75, down 3.0

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wheat Jul 11        $10.0625, up 10.0

Spring Wheat Sep 11        $9.895, up 5.75

Spring Wheat Dec 11        $9.9225, up 4.25

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell $1.66 to $98.44 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was $1.0308 US, up from $1.0285 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was 97.01 cents Cdn.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite index closed up 17.84 points, or 0.13 percent, at 13,625.09.

The Standard and Poor’s 500 index dipped 0.21 points, or 0.02 percent, to 1,340.47.

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