Manitoba’s next provincial election will be held Oct. 4, 2011, but based on ads running on television in December it would be an easy mistake to assume Manitobans are voting in February.
Manitoba’s NDP party, which has been in power since 1999, fired its first salvo at Progressive Conservative leader Hugh McFayden in the late fall, releasing advertisements that portrayed McFayden as a threat to the province.
The ads suggested he would cut the province’s minimum wage and overturn laws that protect Manitoba’s lakes and rivers.
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The provincial Tories responded with their own TV ads, framing McFayden as a reasonable, responsible alternative to the NDP government.
The back and forth volley wasn’t a surprise, said Curtis Brown, a political observer in the province, because early polls suggest the 2011 election will be highly competitive.
“Our polls at Probe Research show that it is really a very close race,” said Brown, a research associate with Probe in Winnipeg.
The research firm’s latest poll, issued days before Christmas, indicated that 42 percent of Manitobans supported the Tories. The NDP were at 38 percent and the provincial Liberals at 15 percent.
With 36 seats, the NDP holds a substantial majority over the Tories, which have 19 members of the legislature.
In Manitoba, the Tories typically dominate rural areas in southern Manitoba but are weak in Winnipeg. Of those 19 seats, the Tories have only five MLAs in the provincial capital.
Jared Wesley, a University of Manitoba political science professor, said Manitobans are less polarized than voters in other parts of Western Canada.
Both parties in Manitoba compete for the centre of the political spectrum, which means the Tories’ 46 percent support isn’t set in concrete.
Looking ahead to topics that could dominate the 2011 election, Brown said Bipole III, a proposed high voltage transmission line, is the perfect wedge issue.
“With Bipole there really is a very clear difference with the two parties. The NDP say the power line needs to go on the western half of the province. The Conservatives say it should go down this shorter side on the east side (of Lake Winnipeg).”
Bipole III is definitely near the top of the list for rural Manitobans. Many farmers and landowners are displeased with the NDP’s decision to erect hydro towers on prime agricultural land in southern Manitoba , which could cost an additional $1.5 billion compared to a route east of Lake Winnipeg.
The PCs will need to take back a few seats in rural Manitoba to win the 2011 election, but rural voters shouldn’t expect a great deal of attention when the election begins next fall, Wesley said, because seats in south Winnipeg will decide the race.
“I think it’s safe to say the Tories know they can’t win the election by talking about nothing but rural issues.”
